Atlanta Braves (Last Season: 86-76)

Will Bobby Cox’s last season as the Atlanta Braves manager be one worth remembering?

He’s been the one fixture in the Braves’ organization since their run in the 1990s. If the Braves don’t get to the playoffs this year, I would say that Cox’s final year with the team might be considered a failure no matter how close they get.

One thing they must have to make a decent run for the postseason is a decent rotation.

They did get very close to a playoff berth last season, coming just a couple games short of the Rockies for the wild-card spot. This year they have guys like Jair Jurrjens, Tim Hudson, and Tommy Hanson as the top three in their rotation. If these three guys can stay consistent and avoid arm injuries (or any injury for that matter), they could get the Braves involved in a very interesting race come September.

Continuing with the Braves’ pitching, as long as Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito don’t show their age too much this year, they could also be nice factors to the Braves’ success as well.

Atlanta believes they have what it takes to make a postseason run, which they definitely do. They have strong starting pitching to start games off and a nice bullpen to finish the backstretch. If age and injuries don’t catch up to this team, they could be in the playoff race all six months of the regular season and perhaps grab a playoff spot for the first time since 2005.

But if the Braves do stay healthy, they still won’t be considered the team to beat, regardless of where they stand over the course of the season. That team is still the Philadelphia Phillies.

But besides that, there’s no reason why they can’t contend for a playoff spot this year as long as their pitching lives up to expectations.

 

Florida Marlins (Last Season: 87-75)

I officially learned last September to never dismiss the Marlins from a postseason conversation no matter how far back they are in early September. They might not get to the postseason every year, but they will get darn close. This team seems to not use their low payroll as an excuse.

If the Marlins are to make the playoffs this year, it needs to mostly rely on their young-but-talented pitching. This pitching staff involved guys with promising futures like Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco, and Chris Volstad.

Just because the Marlins have a younger squad doesn’t mean they’re not talented enough. Remember, this is the same team that has produced THREE of the past seven NL Rookie of the Year Award winners.

Oh, and guys like Hanley Ramirez, Cody Ross, and Dan Uggla leading a team’s offense looks good at this point on paper, too.

 

New York Mets (Last Season: 70-92)

If the Mets can go through the year without a laundry-list-sized number of injuries, they can most definitely make the playoffs.

They have guys like Carlos Beltran, David Wright, and the newly-acquired Jason Bay as their top three guys in their lineup. All of those guys have proven that they can be great when not injured.

Same goes for Johan Santana, who has averaged 237 strikeouts and 17 wins from 2004 to 2008. If he can get reasonably close to those numbers this year, the Mets’ chances of having a greater season get a lot better.

As far as health goes, the number of injuries from last year to this year can only get smaller.

To get away from talking about the injuries, this team still has a lot of questions, mainly involving the pitching staff. I’m not fully convinced that the Mets can make the playoffs with only one significantly good pitcher (Johan Santana). For some reason, Mike Pelfrey, John Maine, and Oliver Perez just have not appealed to me so far in their careers and because of them, I think the Mets could struggle with their starting pitching.

I know Mets fans are going to hate me for this, but it’s true: With the Phillies being such a great team, the Braves getting back on track, and the Marlins having such a young and talented roster, the Mets are in already on a rocky road to the playoffs, and the season hasn’t even started yet.

 

Philadelphia Phillies (Last Season: 93-69)

It’s so great to watch the Phillies and this great run that they’re on. Their fans must be so proud of them for going to the World Series twice in a row, which is a very hard feat. There’s no doubt that this is the greatest run in their history with three straight NL East Division Championships, two World Series appearances, and a World Series title in the past three years.

Manager Charlie Manuel said after last year’s World Series that the Phils will be back in 2010. He is absolutely right. The Phillies are on a great run that could end sometime within the next few years, but not this year. Not with this much pure talent and with Roy Halladay now putting on the red pinstripes.

It would’ve been pretty nice to keep Cliff Lee in Philly, but many might say that swapping him for Halladay is a nice move. If Cole Hamels bounces back from an off 2009 and if the bullpen does it’s job at backing up the starters, then the Phillies are going to win the NL East yet again.

 

Washington Nationals (Last Season: 59-103)

After back-to-back seasons with baseball’s worst record and a host of front office changes in 2009, the Nationals enter 2010 with a clearer sense of just how far away they are from contending.

The pitching staff should be better with the addition of starter Jason Marquis and closer Matt Capps, as well as rookies Stephen Strasburg and Drew Storen, and the offense will benefit from a full season with center fielder Nyjer Morgan.

But there are still too many defensive holes and questions in the pitching staff to expect the Nats to scale the difficult NL East this season. Even a move out of last place could prove daunting.

The Nationals’ theme for 2010 should be: You can only go up from here.

It’s a little obvious to say that the Nats won’t be contenders in 2010, considering that they have ended the past two seasons with the worst record in the majors and that they have made a lot of front office changes.

The pitching staff is looking a little better on paper with the additions of Jason Marquis and closer Matt Capps. I would say Stephen Strasburg too, but nobody knows he’s going to get out of Double A-ball.

On the offensive side of the ball, things do look rather good. The guys I’m looking forward to seeing swinging their big bats are Adam Dunn, Ryan Zimmerman, and Josh Willingham, who combined for 95 home runs and 272 RBI last year.

Defensively, there are a lot of questions. The only real significant defensive addition is at catcher with Ivan “Pudge” Rodriguez and his 13 Gold Glove Awards he owns.

But as far as the team as a whole, they pretty much have no shot to do much of anything this year. I would be shocked if they finished above fifth in the division. Don’t expect the Nationals to contend until pitching staff emerges.

Getting around the 60 win mark seems like the most likely scenario for the Nats this season.

 

Carter’s 2010 National League East Predictions

1. Philadelphia Phillies

2. New York Mets

3. Atlanta Braves

4. Florida Marlins

5. Washington Nationals

 

I expect the Phillies, Mets, and Braves to be the only three teams to be in the playoff race in the middle of September, but I only expect the Phillies to be the only team to keep playing baseball on October 4.

DO YOU WANT TO ATTEND MTV TR3S ROCK AND GOL IN LOS ANGELES, CA? MTV TR3S is looking for all soccer fans and Pitbull fans to be part of this special event for the filming of Rock and Gol, a soccer event and Pitbull on stage filled with tons of interactive games for Free to enjoy. Everyone wants a ticket and we have hundreds.

This event is at the HOME DEPOT CENTER on March 31st and Free to attend. Filled with tons of celebrities attending and filmed for MTV Tres. This is a cast audience, you cant just show up, you must have a ticket.

Tickets are Free but space is limited so hurry and apply for your ticket. You must be over 18 years old to apply for this show.

For FREE TICKETS go to http://onsetproductions.com , and click on the ROCK AND GOL LOGO TO APPLY

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Kate Winslet Cancels Out of Autism Premiere Village Voice (blog) 22 2010 @ 12:30PM ​The big draw for tonight's premiere of HBO's A Mother's Courage: Talking Back to Autism was the little lady who did the ... Unhappy endings in Hollywood: Why red-carpet couples failVancouver Sun Kate Winslet & Sam Mendes SplitCarlos Abreu Headlines: the problems of aging is more difficult for men gaysAssociated News Today (blog) PerezHilton.com (blog) -Times Online -MSN NZ News all 23 news articles »

Juho Hanninen a assure sa course hier. Avec 30 secondes d’avance, le pilote Skoda devait assurer pour rallier l’arrivée. Skoda peut quitter l’Argentine heureux. Trois pilotes de la marque montent sur le podium. Hanninen, Wilks, Kopecky, voilà le trio gagnant de cette manche d’IRC.

Par contre, le week-end ne s’est pas bien passé pour le constructeur automobile Peugeot. Le champion d’IRC, Kris Meeke a du abandonné dans l’ES 14, alors qu’il était en troisième position. Un problème de direction qui n’a pas pu être réparé.
Le championnat est donc relancé avec la bonne santé des Skoda ( victoires en Argentine et Monte-Carlo) face à Peugeot ( victoire au Brésil).
Rendez-vous le 28 avril pour suivre la quatrième manche de ce championnat aux Iles Canaries.

Le classement final
1. Juho Hanninen-Mikko Markkula (FIN/Skoda Fabia) en 2 h 30′38”1
2. Guy Wilks-Phil Pugh (GBR/Skoda Fabia) à 51”0
3. Jan Kopecky-Petr Stary (RTC/Skoda Fabia) 2′20”1
4. Gabriel Pozzo-Daniel Stilo (ARG/Subaru Impreza) 5′03”9
5. Federico Villagra-Jorge Perez-Companc (ARG/Ford Fiesta) 5′14”2
6. Bruno Magalhaes-Carlos Magalhaes (POR/Peugeot 207) 6′11”0

Si vous souhaitez revivre ce week-end IRC vous pouvez lire ou relire IRC Argentine : Juho Hanninen leader

Madrid.- Su participación estuvo en duda a causa de un flemón en las encías, pero Leo Messi salió al campo, anotó su segundo "hat-trick" en una semana y dejó las cosas como estaban en la cabeza de la Liga, con el Real Madrid al frente con los mismos puntos que el Barcelona.

En el último partido de la vigésima séptima jornada, el Barcelona venció a domicilio al Zaragoza por 2-4, en una nueva actuación deslumbrante de Messi, que sólo tardó cinco minutos en batir al portero rival, Ricardo. Un fallo defensivo del uruguayo Carlos Diogo facilitó un centro de Pedro que "La Pulga" convirtió de cabeza.

El heredero de Diego Armando Maradona volvió a anotar en el 66 y en el 77, para lograr su segundo "hat-trick" en una semana y tercero de la temporada y afianzarse como máximo artillero de la Liga, con 25 tantos, cinco más que su compatriota Gonzalo Higuaín. Y eso que su participación estuvo en duda a causa de un flemón en las encías.

Adrián Colunga puso con dos goles el 2-3 y el sueco Zlatan Ibrahimovic cerró la cuenta, de penalti cometido a Messi.

"El mérito no es sólo mío, es del equipo", dijo la estrella argentina, que lleva nueve tantos consecutivos.

El Barcelona igualó al Madrid con 68 puntos, pero los blancos conservan el liderato gracias a su mejor diferencia de goles.

El sábado, el Real Madrid languidecía en el Santiago Bernabéu hasta que el Sporting de Gijón se adelantó mediante David Barral en el minuto 52. Entonces, se desperezó y en los cuatro minutos siguientes remontó con dianas del holandés Rafael van der Vaart, que, antes de marcar, controló con los brazos el rechace de Juan Pablo a un cañonazo de falta de Cristiano Ronaldo, y Xabi Alonso.

En el 68, el argentino Gonzalo Higuaín cerró el triunfo con su vigésimo gol liguero, en un partido en el que el Madrid ocultó su mal juego, protestado en algunas fases por el público, con la potencia ofensiva de sus jugadores.

El Valencia se afianzó en el tercer lugar, con 50 puntos, cuatro más que el Mallorca, tras derrotar por 2-0 (Juan Mata y David Silva) al Almería, que interrumpió una racha de siete partidos sin perder, aunque mantiene la décima plaza, con 33.

El Espanyol, con dos goles del argentino Pablo Daniel Osvaldo, venció al Sevilla, sin su estrella brasileña Luis Fabiano, y tomó aire en su lucha por escapar de las plazas que se asoman al abismo del descenso. El portero argentino Cristian Álvarez debutó en sus filas e hizo paradas de mérito.

La derrota del Sevilla, que ha sumado sólo dos puntos en las últimas cuatro jornadas, abrió la posibilidad del Mallorca de atrapar la cuarta plaza, la última de la liga de Campeones, y no la desaprovechó con una rotunda victoria por 4-1 sobre el Atletico de Madrid.

Víctor Casadesús, Aritz Aduriz, el colombiano Luis Perea en propia meta y el brasileño Felipe Mattioni, de espectacular volea, convirtieron los tantos del Mallorca, mientras el uruguayo Diego Forlán, que cumplió 200 partidos en Primera, hizo el del "Atleti", anclado en el décimo segundo puesto, con 31 puntos, a 15 de su rival.

El equipo rojiblanco jugó desde el minuto 55 con diez jugadores por la expulsión de Raúl García, cuando perdía por 2-1. El Mallorca logró su décimo segunda victoria en casa en 13 partidos.

El Athletic de Bilbao y el Getafe igualaron a dos en San Mamés. Pablo Orbaiz y Fernando Llorente, de penalti, marcaron por los de "La Catedral" y Manu del Moral y Pedro León equilibraron por los madrileños.

El Valladolid dio la sorpresa de la jornada al llevarse los tres puntos en el duelo de Riazor con el Deportivo de La Coruña, que perdió la sexta plaza en beneficio del Athletic.

Nauzet Alemán y el bosnio Haris Medunjanin firmaron los goles del cuarto triunfo del Valladolid esta temporada y primero de su nuevo entrenador, Onésimo Sánchez, que le sirvió para traspasar la plaza de vicecolista al Tenerife, ambos con 23 puntos, cinco más que el colista Xerez.

Precisamente en casa del Xerez cayó el Tenerife. Los locales se impusieron con dianas de Mario Bermejo y Artiles Aythami en el primer cuarto de hora. Nino acortó distancias en el 48 después de que el portero local, el debutante Chema, le parara un penalti en el 33.

El Racing de Santander, que llevaba cinco partidos sin anotar, ganó a domicilio al Osasuna por 1-3 después de remontar el tanto inicial de Miguel Flaño, al que siguieron los de Gonzalo Colsa, Christian Fernández y el senegalés Papakouli Diop.

El Málaga, después de tres derrotas consecutivas, también se distanció de los puestos peligrosos al derrotar al Villarreal con dos dianas del franco-marroquí Nabil Baha en el segundo tiempo.

Joe Nathan has opted to undergo Tommy John surgery, ending his 2010 season and leaving his future as an elite closer in question.  While the rest of the fantasy world goes sorting through the middling relievers who could fill the role in the early weeks of the season like Jon Rauch, Matt Guerrier, and Jose Mijares, you may be better served to look at the long-term solution. 

Anthony Slama, a 26-year-old righty who was the Twins 39th round selection back in 2006, has proven over the past two years that he has the stuff to be a successful closer in the minor leagues.  He’s saved 54 games while compiling a minor league career 1.87 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 13.3 K/9.  If those numbers don’t leap off the page at you I’m not sure what will.

Granted, he has his negatives:

Last season he posted a BB/9 of 4.4 between Double and Triple-A.  That’s certainly an issue, though with his ability to strikeout batters it could easily be overcome.  Of course, in 2008 at Single-A his BB/9 was just 3.0, so there is certainly hope that he can correct the problem.

He also gives up a decent amount of flyballs, at 44.8 percent overall in ‘09.  More specifically it was at 48.3 percent in 66 Double-A innings (and 30.6 percent in 15.2 Triple-A innings, though that’s a small sample size).  While he’s allowed just five home runs in his minor league career (all during his Double-A stint last season), it could become a bigger issue in the Major Leagues.

Still, even with those issues, the good certainly outweighs the bad.  The strikeout rate is just an overly impressive number that you have to take notice of.  He’s done it at every level as well, so you can’t just claim that it has been coming against lower level opponents:

• 2008 - Single-A - 71.0 innings - 13.9
• 2009 - Double-A - 65.1 innings - 12.8
• 2009 - Triple-A - 15.2 innings - 10.9

The only word that comes to mind is impressive.  He clearly has the stuff to generate swings and misses.  He’s proven that he can successfully save games in the past and if he can get his control back in order could simply be unstoppable at the back-end of the bullpen.

He may not open the year as the Twins closer.  They likely will give the veterans the first opportunity to replace Nathan.  Sooner or later, I’d look for him to get a chance, making him worth stashing in all formats.

What are your thoughts on Slama?  Could he get some saves in Minnesota?  Would you be willing to stash him?

If you would like to see a free preview of the Rotoprofessor 2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide (available for just $5) now including a Top 50 Prospects for 2010 List, click here .

For more looks at prospects, you can check out the following articles:

• J.P. Arencibia
• Jake Arrieta
• Phillippe Aumont
• Josh Bell
• Jason Castro
• Starlin Castro
• Allen Craig
• Aaron Crow
• Kyle Drabek
• Todd Frazier
• Christian Friedrich
• Jeremy Hellickson
• Daniel Hudson
• Jay Jackson
• Desmond Jennings
• Martin Perez
• Gaby Sanchez
• Carlos Santana
• Michael Saunders
• Brett Wallace

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

As my bracket has been shredded by the Madness of March and while Winter attempts to make one final pass over the North Coast, let’s get rolling right away on a Lazy Sunday to think of warm, sunny days at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario and of whether a certain team from Cleveland could fit into Cinderella’s slipper this summer.
And with that, we’re off…

The biggest news of the week obviously is the news that Kerry Wood will be missing 6 to 8 weeks because of an upper back injury. While this development causes the dominoes to fall in the bullpen, perhaps the most important factor in this injury news is that the vesting option in Wood’s contract (if he finishes 55 games in 2010, his 2011 option for $11 vests) is not going to be possible for Wood to reach, considering that he’s not going to be seeing action until May at the earliest, assuming he’s even healthy at that point and won’t need multiple rehab appearances to get back to the Indians.

Of course, the fact that his option is unlikely to vest could make Wood MORE attractive on the trade market come July as teams won’t have to entertain the possibility of acquiring an $11M commitment in 2011 if they traded for Wood to augment their 2010 bullpen. Of course, his attractiveness in July makes the assumption that he comes back healthy AND effective, which is no given as there exists a very real possibility that Wood attempts to come back too early to justify his contract or to put a body of work forward in what could be his Free Agency season that would make him attractive in the off-season, compromising his effectiveness as a late-inning reliever.

As a quick aside on Spring injuries and Free Agency seasons, did anyone catch that CP Lee has been sidelined with a “right abdominal strain”, which is supposed to set him back for a week?

Everyone remembers the last time Clifton Phifer battled this same injury in Spring Training, right?
It was 2007, the year that saw Lee rush back and never find his rhythm, causing a late-season demotion, the tip of the cap, and his exclusion from the postseason roster. Everyone knows that Lee’s pitching for a giant contract at the end of this season (likely with the name “Steinbrenner” somewhere in it), right?
This could get interesting up in the Pacific Northwest…

But I digress, back to Wood and the immediate impact on the team as the Indians immediately will slot Chris Perez (or CFP, which would be “Chris…um, Firetruckin’ Perez, as Nino at The Tribe Daily has taken to calling him because of Perez’s professed love of “Eastbound and Down”) into the role of closer in Wood’s absence. There was certainly a prevailing school of thought that Perez would be closing games for the Indians at some point in 2010…just not to start the season.

Perez has been thought of as a “Closer-of-the-Future”, even when a member of the Cardinals, and his 10.74 K/9 rate ranked 16th among all MLB pitchers with more than 40 IP last year (career MiLB K/9 rate of 12.0) showed why he was seen as a power pitcher with a bright future at the back end of the bullpen. However, the greatest strides that Perez made last season had little to do with the strikeout totals and more to do with his BB totals. As Andrew Simon adroitly points out in a 2010 preview for the Indians, “after the Indians acquired him in the middle of last season, Chris Perez cut his walks per nine innings from 5.7 to 3.2.” If you want something to watch with Perez once he toes the rubber in the 9th, his BB rate may be more telling than any other statistic as he walked an improbable 75 batters in 108 innings in the Minors and his success may be tied very neatly by his ability to limit the free pass.

However, the biggest effect of Wood’s injury does not have anything to do with Perez slotting into the closer role, but rather the way that Perez’s ascension to the role of closer pushes everyone else in the bullpen up that ladder of roles. With CFP out of the set-up role, that 8th inning now falls into the lap of either Rafael Perez (and his 1.89 WHIP and .899 OPS against from 2009), Tony Sipp (who has walked 6 and given up 5 hits, while striking out only 2 in his 5 innings of work this Spring), and Joe Smith (who has given up 7 hits and 5 runs in 5 innings this Spring and is better suited as a straight right-on-right reliever). Sorting out those arms in the 6th or 7th innings is a completely different animal from seeing these guys vie for the spot in the 8th inning, with the recent bullpen struggles in Cleveland bearing testament to that.

Essentially, this is the same reason that Minnesota should be worried with Joe Nathan likely to be out for the season, in that losing a 9th inning reliever forces pitchers who would normally slot into middle relief into the 7th inning and pushes arms that a team wouldn’t generally use late in a game with a lead into those very games. Of course, this could open up some opportunities for guys like Sipp or Rafael Perez to assert themselves as back-of-the-bullpen mainstays and could even open up meaningful spots in the bullpen for guys like Jesse Ray Todd or even Josh Judy earlier than expected, but in the short-term, it throws what looked to be a fairly pleasant progression in the bullpen into a bit of confusion.

All told, it looks like the “future” starts earlier than expected in the bullpen and the young arms will have more opportunities (particularly later in games) to show that they should be counted on for 2010 and beyond.

If the “future starts now” in the bullpen, what is to be made of the recent reports concerning 2B?

In the midst of some notes from Goodyear, Tony Lastoria reported that:
The real interesting story may come later in camp as I’m hearing if Mark Grudzielanek continues to play well and makes a run these last few weeks that Luis Valbuena may be the odd man out and be sent to Columbus to start the season. Even though the Indians have played him some at third base this spring, Grudzielanek is viewed strictly as a second baseman at the moment.

So…is the organization hedging on the idea that Louie V is the Opening Day 2B?
I found it interesting that Hoynes decided to do a piece on Louie the Fifth right after this nugget from Tony, with Hoynes writing that:
When spring training opened, Acta said Valbuena was his second baseman. Acta added that the Indians weren’t in the business of turning 24-year-old infielders into platoon players…“Valbuena has played well the whole camp,” Acta said. “He hasn't done anything to hurt his chances to be our everyday guy. We like Grudzielanek and Rodriguez has done well. We’ve got two weeks to go, but Louie has done everything we’ve asked him to do…He’s had some good at-bats against left-handed pitchers. He has done nothing to change our minds.”

The “we aren’t in the business of turning 24-year-old infielders into platoon players” comment from Acta is still a highlight of the Spring for me (if only because it represents such a departure from managerial comments in years past), but let’s not pretend that there aren’t issues with Valbuena’s ability to hit LHP. While he only has 48 MLB plate appearances against LHP in MLB (even though he’s played in 121 MLB games), consider what Valbuena’s splits looked like in the Minors:
2005 vs. LHP - .624 OPS
2005 vs. RHP - .808 OPS

2006 vs. LHP - .748 OPS
2006 vs. RHP - .738 OPS

2007 vs. LHP - .510 OPS
2007 vs. RHP - .795 OPS

2008 vs. LHP - .717 OPS
2008 vs. RHP - .843 OPS

In 2009, he only had 78 AB in Columbus, so the samples are just too small to develop any kind of opinion in his AAA time last year; but those numbers account for 441 plate appearances against LHP and 1,230 against RHP, so the disparity in those numbers (except for 2006) do cause some pause in terms of Valbuena’s ability to hit LHP if he’s only show proficient in doing so in one of the last 5 years.

Don’t get me wrong, I’d still prefer to see Valbuena get everyday AB from the beginning of the season to see how he adjusts to playing everyday (against RHP and LHP) in MLB. Looming over the whole “splits” concern, there is the service time issue and, while I know that people don’t want to hear about that and want to throw the young guys out there now and allow them to sink or swim on their own, Valbuena (with 1 year and 12 days of MLB service time) needs to spend some time in the Minors to…here it comes…manage his service time to push off his first year of arbitration and of Free Agency.

That being said, I think that there is an easy solution to this service time issue that doesn’t include thinking about a season starting with Grudzielanek and Branyan (although Terry Pluto reports that the Indians “have to be concerned” about Rusty’s back…even if they’re not saying so publicly) on the right side of the infield to start the season. Quite simply, the Indians can start the season with Valbuena in MLB and demote him at some point in the season for a month or so. They can blame the demotion on the aforementioned struggles against LHP (regardless of what he’s doing in MLB) and simply call up Jason Donald (who would, like Valbuena, be playing 2B every day) to take his place, while Valbuena’s service time issue is rectified. In that scenario, the Indians get to see a body of work put forth by both Louie the Fifth and Donald while ensuing that Valbuena’s service time issue is fixed.

Regardless of the machinations in the bullpen and in the lineup, the big issues are still in the rotation as outlined by Ryan Richards (usually of the LGT), who wrote a great piece for The Hardball Times. In it, he is right to assert that “by this time next year, the Indians will have taken a big step forward if they have only a couple spots in the rotation to fill, instead of having to fill the entire rotation” and absolutely nails the major issue staring the Indians in the face as 2010 dawns:
The absence of starting pitching throughout the organization was what largely led to last year’s mid-season trades of Lee and Martinez, and while the Indians now have some depth thanks to those deals, they don’t yet have a credible rotation. The three pitchers who are expected to head the staff (Jake Westbrook, Justin Masterson, and Fausto Carmona) all have serious flaws, and in most rotations would be classified as back-end projects. Westbrook hasn’t thrown a pitch in the majors in almost two seasons, Carmona was a disaster in 2009, and Masterson is still transitioning from the bullpen. Again, that’s the top of the rotation.

As a quick aside, here’s a little snippet about one of the guys at the top of the rotation from Nick Cafardo’s Sunday Baseball Notes column in the Boston Globe:
Looking for a good trade-deadline pitching option? Westbrook will be Cleveland’s Opening Day starter after spending the last two seasons recuperating from Tommy John surgery. Westbrook, 32, won 44 games from 2004-06 and will earn $11 million in the final year of a three-year, $33 million deal. He has had a strong spring training and looks to be healthy.

As for the back of the rotation (and it will be interesting to see how the Wood injury affects the Indians’ decision on who starts the season in the rotation and if one of the pitchers starts the season in the bullpen), here’s an interesting little quote from Acta concerning Spring Training results against what the coaching staff may be looking for in terms of performance:
“Talbot wasn’t as sharp as he was the last time, but he did make pitches when he had to. Too bad he ran out of pitches,” Acta said, alluding to Talbot having reached his pitch limit by the time he struck out Corey Brown for the first out in the fourth.
“Huff stayed aggressive and continued to pound the strike zone,” Acta added, discounting the home runs off the lefty by Kevin Kouzmanoff and Matt Carson.

Acta said this after “Unleash the Fury”, Mitch Talbot, went 3 1/3 scoreless innings on Saturday and Dave Huff gave up 3 earned runs in 4 innings, also on Saturday. How much of this is empty quotes or motivational tactics or even the truth remains to be seen, but it’s a lesson to not look too closely at Spring Training numbers or even quotes in an attempt to read the tea leaves.

Back to the piece on issues facing the Indians, here’s a piece on the Detroit pitching staff from Rob Neyer at ESPN, reacting to the rumors that Dontrelle Willis may be working his way back into the Tigers’ rotation:
* Max Scherzer averaged fewer than six innings per start in the National League last season;

* Jeremy Bonderman is 14-14 with a 4.96 ERA over the last three seasons;

* Nate Robertson is 18-27 with a 5.52 ERA over the last three seasons; and

* Dontrelle Willis is ... well, you know about Dontrelle Willis.

They say Eddie Bonine's in the rotation mix, too.

If you choose whichever three of those you like, and add them to Verlander and Rick Porcello, do you think you’ve got the rotation of a contending team? All those bad contracts -- Willis and Bonderman and Robertson, but also Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen -- eventually had to roost, and it looks like this is the Year of the Chicken.

To go further with the topic of the Central, Fangraphs has been running a countdown of organizations from #30 to #1 with Dave Cameron of Fangraphs explaining the evaluation process thusly:
Having a chance of winning it all this year is great. Having a great farm system is great. Having a forward thinking management staff is great. But by themselves, none of those things are enough to earn a high grade overall. We’re really trying to highlight the balance between winning now and winning in the future. There will be teams that are high on the list because of how good they may be in 2011 or 2012, while teams that are better in 2010 will be behind them. It’s not just a short term thing, and these aren’t projected order of finish for 2010. It’s our perspective on the total health of where each team is, relative to their peers, going forward.

The countdown has only made it to #21 and it is more than informative as they’ve analyzed both current and future talent for each team. You may find it interesting that 3 of the teams in the Central rank among the bottom 10 ranked to date…and none of those three teams in the bottom 10 are the Indians:
Detroit Tigers - #21
You can’t build a long term winner through free agency alone, and the Tigers are now paying the price for some of the contracts they’ve handed out in years past. They’re attempting to rebuild the core of the team while also contending, but from my perspective, it looks like they’re not going to get maximum results from either effort. The effect – an older team with lots of future question marks that isn’t quite good enough to win in 2010. That’s not a great spot to be in.

Chicago White Sox - #24
But while this is not a bad team, neither is it a good team, and the future doesn’t look especially bright...With the Twins moving into a new park that should increase their revenues, the division will only get more challenging, and the White Sox are in danger of getting left behind. 2010 is going to be a critical year this team. With some breaks, they could challenge for a playoff spot, but they also need to continue to add young talent to the organization. Trying to do both at the same time is not easy.

Kansas City Royals - #29
The Royals are behind the curve, and they’ve got a lot of catching up to do before they can contend again. Moore may believe in his process, but he shouldn’t. The Royals are bad now, they’re going to be bad next year, and they’ll be bad until someone injects some new thought into that front office.

Take all that for what it’s worth (and the Indians could easily show up as #20 on the list, not too far removed from the rest of their AL Central brothers), but the analysis on both the White Sox and Tigers attempting to simultaneously compete and add young talent does bring to mind those Indians’ teams of the early 2000s. Back then, the Indians thought that they could have their cake and eat it too as they attempted to contend and rebuild at the same time. We all know how that worked out for them in that it just delayed the “tear-down” that began with the Colon deal, so how the newest “tear-down” plays out should be begin to have answers in 2010.

To that end, in case you haven’t seen it, there’s an even-handed and (dare I say) optimistic season preview for the Indians at CBS Sports.com that gets into the whole “managing the cycles” speech that we’ve been hearing for a while now.

Past that “old news” here’s a bit that I haven’t seen elsewhere that gets to that point of contention vs. rebuilding, which is a quote attributed to Sandy, talking about the team today compared to the teams of the early 90s, when he arrived in Cleveland:
“I think the amount of talent we have here now is a little more we had back then,” Alomar, now the team’s first-base coach, says of those early-‘90s Indians. “We had some talent then, but there was no mix of veteran players. Now there's Grady Sizemore, Travis Hafner, Jake Westbrook. There are a few front-line players.
“Back in ‘90, ‘91 and ‘92, it took a little while until Eddie Murray, Dennis Martinez and Orel Hershiser came. That’s when everything got put together and we were really good.
‘When John Hart felt guys were ready to compete, that’s when he brought in Murray, Martinez, Hershiser, Tony Pena.”

At first blush, it looks like an extremely positive comment until you see the years that Alomar references. The records of the three teams that he mentions were:
1990 – 77-85
1991 – 57-105
1992 – 76-86

As long as Alomar’s not talking about the 1991 season (his second with the club…and did you know that he only averaged 70 games a year from 1991 to 1995?), when the Indians lost 105 games, I think I’m OK with the comparison. It should be noted that in 1993, the team went 76-86 again just before the break-out (if interrupted) 2004 season, so while Alomar’s words look great in that “the amount of talent we have here now is a little more than we had back then”, putting it in the proper context and timeframe is important.

Is the team destined for a couple of 76 to 77 win seasons before (hopefully) breaking out into contention, or is the team only a few steps away from that break-out?

With Wood on the shelf, Branyan still yet to play in a Cactus League game and the roster finally rounding into shape, the future may be starting sooner than previously thought on the North Coast…and that may not be such a bad thing.

Here are some thoughts after reviewing Saturday's spring training boxscores:

Indian's closer Kerry Wood will be sidelined for up to 2 months with a strain under his right shoulder. Chris Perez will fill in for Wood as the Indians closer.

Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright threw 5 shutout innings on Saturday, giving up 3 hits and punching out 6. Wainwright threw 132 innings in 20 starts in 2008, and 233 innings in 34 starts in 2009. That's quite a jump in innings. I don't see him repeating the 2.63 ERA in 2010.

Recently acquired Adam Rosales batted leadoff and played SS for the A's on Saturday. Rosales played 11 games at SS in AAA Louisville and 25 games in 2008. If he can play SS, why didn't the Reds let him play there instead of signing Orlando Cabrera? I think Billy Beane will find out in 2010.

Braves outfielder Nate McLouth went 0-4 and is hitting .029 this spring. Small sample size for sure, but does Jordan Schafer get a look in CF if McLouth's hitting woes continue?

Blue Jays reliever Kevin Gregg struck out 2 in his inning of work on Saturday, but he also gave up 3 hits and the game tying run. His competition for closer Jason Frasor followed with a scoreless inning, but has an ERA over 8 this spring.

Marlins outfielder Cameron Maybin was 2-4 with 2 solo HRs on Saturday. Does he finally show us all the tools in 2010? He has 20-20 possibilities should he reach his potential in 2010.

Astros outfielder Hunter Pence was 2-3 with 2 runs scored and 3 RBI hitting 3rd in the Astros lineup on Saturday. With Lance Berkman on the DL to start the season, Pence could see alot of nice pitches hitting in front of Carlos Lee.

Mat Latos gave up 1 run on 2 hits in 5 innings on Saturday, punching out 5 in the process. Like I said before, he may win the 5th starter's spot in the Padres rotation, but he will be their ace by the end of the season. Ok, ok, I admit, I do have him in the UBA league, and some of that might be wishful thinking.

Outfielder Aaron Cunningham, who is battling for a spot in the Padres outfield this spring, stole his 5th base this spring. He could be a very late source of SBs in mixed and NL-only leagues drafts in the next few weeks.

Rockies starter Jeff Francis gave up 6 runs, 4 earned, on 6 hits in 4 innings on Saturday. He struck out 5 and walked 2, as his spring ERA is now approaching 7. He may need some time to get back to the old Jeff Francis after shoulder surgery.

Mariners starter Felix Hernandez still has not given up a run this spring after shutting out the Diamondbacks for 5 innings on Saturday. He gave up 2 hits, a walk and punched out 2. He outdueled D'Backs ace Dan Haren, who gave up 3 runs on 4 hits in 5 innings, striking out 7 in the process.

Phillies ace Roy Halladay gave up 3 runs on 6 hits and 2 walks in 5 innings vs the Tigers. There will be more games like this for Halladay, where he will pitch decent, and not get a win. Temper thos 20+ win projections for Halladay.

Poll

Who would you rather have in 2010-Felix Hernandez or Roy Halladay?

• Felix
• Roy Halladay

  5 votes | Results

Here are some thoughts after reviewing Saturday's spring training boxscores:

Indian's closer Kerry Wood will be sidelined for up to 2 months with a strain under his right shoulder. Chris Perez will fill in for Wood as the Indians closer.

Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright threw 5 shutout innings on Saturday, giving up 3 hits and punching out 6. Wainwright threw 132 innings in 20 starts in 2008, and 233 innings in 34 starts in 2009. That's quite a jump in innings. I don't see him repeating the 2.63 ERA in 2010.

Recently acquired Adam Rosales batted leadoff and played SS for the A's on Saturday. Rosales played 11 games at SS in AAA Louisville and 25 games in 2008. If he can play SS, why didn't the Reds let him play there instead of signing Orlando Cabrera? I think Billy Beane will find out in 2010.

Braves outfielder Nate McLouth went 0-4 and is hitting .029 this spring. Small sample size for sure, but does Jordan Schafer get a look in CF if McLouth's hitting woes continue?

Blue Jays reliever Kevin Gregg struck out 2 in his inning of work on Saturday, but he also gave up 3 hits and the game tying run. His competition for closer Jason Frasor followed with a scoreless inning, but has an ERA over 8 this spring.

Marlins outfielder Cameron Maybin was 2-4 with 2 solo HRs on Saturday. Does he finally show us all the tools in 2010? He has 20-20 possibilities should he reach his potential in 2010.

Astros outfielder Hunter Pence was 2-3 with 2 runs scored and 3 RBI hitting 3rd in the Astros lineup on Saturday. With Lance Berkman on the DL to start the season, Pence could see alot of nice pitches hitting in front of Carlos Lee.

Mat Latos gave up 1 run on 2 hits in 5 innings on Saturday, punching out 5 in the process. Like I said before, he may win the 5th starter's spot in the Padres rotation, but he will be their ace by the end of the season. Ok, ok, I admit, I do have him in the UBA league, and some of that might be wishful thinking.

Outfielder Aaron Cunningham, who is battling for a spot in the Padres outfield this spring, stole his 5th base this spring. He could be a very late source of SBs in mixed and NL-only leagues drafts in the next few weeks.

Rockies starter Jeff Francis gave up 6 runs, 4 earned, on 6 hits in 4 innings on Saturday. He struck out 5 and walked 2, as his spring ERA is now approaching 7. He may need some time to get back to the old Jeff Francis after shoulder surgery.

Mariners starter Felix Hernandez still has not given up a run this spring after shutting out the Diamondbacks for 5 innings on Saturday. He gave up 2 hits, a walk and punched out 2. He outdueled D'Backs ace Dan Haren, who gave up 3 runs on 4 hits in 5 innings, striking out 7 in the process.

Phillies ace Roy Halladay gave up 3 runs on 6 hits and 2 walks in 5 innings vs the Tigers. There will be more games like this for Halladay, where he will pitch decent, and not get a win. Temper thos 20+ win projections for Halladay.

As we gear up for the 2010 baseball season, we continue our daily, team-by-team previews with the consistently fascinating New York Mets. Vegas has set their odds of winning the World Series at 20/1.

By Eric Simon of Amazin' Avenue

-----

Introduction

Citi Field opened in 2009 to much pomp and fanfare—and expectations of severe homerun suppression—and the Mets were 28-21, a half-game behind the Phillies as May drew to a close. Carlos Delgado had already missed three weeks to that point, and Jose Reyes was going on two weeks since his last game action. Neither would play again for the Mets in 2009.

Mets players combined to lose hundreds of games due to injury last season. In addition to Delgado and Reyes, Carlos Beltran, J.J. Putz, Johan Santana, Brian Schneider, Angel Pagan, Oliver Perez, John Maine, and Fernando Martinez, among others, all missed significant time in 2009. Not even Shane Victorino could provide enough grission to make up for all of those lost games.

Injuries weren't the only problem, of course. Even the regulars who managed to stay on the field were often mediocre versions of themselves. David Wright in particular had an atypically pedestrian season in the power department, socking a mere ten homeruns and slugging just .447, forty points less than Angel Pagan (!).

The defense all-around left a lot to be desired, as the team's infield and outfield range was virtually nonexistent, particularly when Beltran was on the shelf. The shoddy glovework only exacerbated the deficits of an undertalented pitching staff that finished 15th in the National League in xFIP, 13th in FIP, and 14th in strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Offensively, the team had the fifth-worst wOBA and the sixth-worst weighted runs created (wRC) in the National League. Add it all up and you get a 70-92 team with the highest payroll in the league and 23 games—not to mention three other teams—separating them from first place.

As for Citi Field, it greatly favored pitchers as a run-scoring environment, but through an apparent small-sample-size aberration led to more home runs in Mets home games than those played on the road. You can count on this disparity swinging the other way once the ballpark has a few years of data upon which to judge it.

Position Players

C: Rod Barajas/Henry Blanco
1B: Daniel Murphy/Mike Jacobs
2B: Luis Castillo
3B: David Wright
SS: Alex Cora
LF: Jason Bay
CF: Angel Pagan
RF: Jeff Francoeur

Injuries tore apart the 2009 Mets and two weeks from Opening Day they already threaten to do the same to the 2010 version. Superstar center fielder Carlos Beltran went under the knife for arthroscopic knee surgery in January and the most sanguine outlook for him is a May return. Angel Pagan, who had a surprisingly productive year in 2009, should be the starter to begin the season. Out machine Gary Matthews Jr. will be waiting in the wings should Pagan struggle early on. Shortstop Jose Reyes was recently diagnosed with an overactive thyroid and has been prohibited from participating in any baseball activities until his levels return to normal. His prognosis is a 2-8 week recovery period, which puts his chances of being on the Opening Day roster in serious jeopardy (thus Alex Cora's name reluctantly penciled in at shortstop above).

Jason Bay was the big offseason acquisition for the Mets, signing with New York for four years and $66 million plus a vesting fifth year option worth $17 million. Bay is expected to provide plus-plus offense and minus-minus defense, but with Reyes and Beltran out for a while the Mets will need Bay's bat in the middle of the lineup to help generate runs. Meanwhile, a somewhat disappointing 2009 for Wright leaves the perennial star—and the Mets by extension—eager for a 2010 bounceback.

Jeff Francoeur was much better in the second half of the season with the Mets (.350 wOBA) than he was in the first half with the Braves (.278 wOBA). He doesn't walk much (114 unintentional walks in nearly 3,000 career plate appearances), but he makes good contact and can hit the ball a long way. If the Mets get the second-half Francoeur of 2009 they'll have an above-average right fielder. If they get the first-half version (aka the 2006 and 2008 version) they'll have a $5 million replacement level player.

Speaking of replacement level, meet the right side of the Mets' infield. Likely starting first baseman Daniel Murphy could be a useful utility player but is a below average hitter, particularly at first base. Mike Jacobs, in his second go-round with the Mets, could steal some at-bats from Murphy and turn them effortlessly into outs. At second base is the increasingly defensively inept Luis Castillo, who walks and steals enough to be decent but his utter lack of power and range keep him from being anything better than that.

Behind the plate is a who's who of moderately useful backstops, with Rod Barajas the likely starter splitting time with Henry Blanco. Should either falter or incur injury, Chris Coste and Omir Santos, plus upstart Josh Thole, will be waiting to crouch in.

Rotation

1. Johan Santana
2. Mike Pelfrey
3. Oliver Perez
4. John Maine
5. Jon Niese/Fernando Nieve/Nelson Figueroa/Hisanori Takahashi

If you thought the Mets' lineup was iffy, allow me to introduce you to their starting rotation.

Up first is Johan Santana, who has been great (but not stupendous) in his two seasons with the Mets and has lost some zip on his fastball and, likely as a result, a worrying drop in his strikeout rate. He also missed the last month of 2009 following left elbow surgery to remove some bone chips, so his return to superstardom is anything but guaranteed. In any event, he's the best the Mets have and still projects to be one of the better starting pitchers in the National League.

There's a precipitous dropoff from Santana to the rest of the rotation, which begins with sinker baller Mike Pelfrey. Pelfrey seemed to regress from 2008 to 2009—his ERA jumped from 3.72 to 5.03—but his home run-adjusted xFIP was almost identical—4.49 versus 4.52—so there's reason to be optimistic about his 2010. He has been working on a splitter this spring and if he can do a better job inducing ground balls from left-handed batters (1.34 groundball-to-flyball ratio versus lefties as opposed to 2.42 against righties) he could very well be a solid number two starter.

Oliver Perez and John Maine looked like burgeoning stars heading into the 2008 season, but two years later we're left with far more questions than answers. Questions like: Will either actually ever be a good pitcher again? or Why have the baseball gods forsaken me? Last offseason, Perez got married and we were told that a more mature Ollie would settle in and reach his potential. Mission accomplished: a 6.40 FIP. This offseason he actually excercised and is apparently in The Best Shape Of His Life; Outcome? To be determined.

Maine threw just 81 innings in 2009, missing more than half the season with general weakness and fatigue in his throwing shoulder. The half of the season he spent on the field wasn't much better, as he struck out just 55 batters while walking more than four every nine innings. Not that spring training stats should be taken too seriously, but Maine has been pretty lousy in extremely limited action so far. His outlook for 2010 is pretty hazy.

The fifth starter's spot is still up in the air, with rookie Jon Niese the hopeful favorite with journeyman Nelson Figueroa, never-will-be Fernando Nieve, and Japanese import Hisanori Takahashi all vying for a slice of the pie.

Bullpen

Francisco Rodriguez (CL)
Ryota Igarashi
Sean Green
Pedro Feliciano
Bobby Parnell
Kiko Calero
Fernando Nieve/Nelson Figueroa/Hisanori Takahashi

Last offseason the Mets went all out to fix the bullpen, throwing cash at Francisco Rodriguez and useful players at the Mariners to get J.J. Putz. This time around they were a little more responsible, signing Ryota Igarashi, Kelvim Escobar, and Kiko Calero, plus the versatile Takahashi, to reasonable, short-term deals.

Rodriguez is signed to a horrible contract and his peripherals are all heading in the wrong direction, but he's apparently back to wearing the goggles this year so yay for that. Escobar will miss the start of the season with right shoulder soreness and the prognosis for his return is not yet known. Calero was a late signing and might not be quite ready for Opening Day. He's also basically a ROOGY in a bullpen that alread features a guy who can't get lefties out (Sean Green).

The Mets are also counting on an influx of talent from Nippon Professional Baseball, as Igarashi figures to be their top setup man while Takahashi could contribute in the bullpen or rotation or both. Takahashi gives the Mets a second lefty out of the pen, joining fellow southpaw—and extreme LOOGY—Pedro Feliciano.

Bobby Parnell is a converted starter who doesn't seem especially adroit at either role. He seems to have been guaranteed a relief spot despite having apparently done nothing to deserve it, unless you count "keeping your arm attached to your body" to his credit.

In The System

There’s a pretty big gap right now between the popular perception of the Mets farm system and its actual quality. Despite getting frequently picked on by the local media, the system is much closer to the middle of the pack than the bottom tier. The Mets may lack a truly elite prospect, but the depth in the upper levels is really starting to fill out, and there are plenty of arms and international bonus babies coming through the lower levels ready to keep the pipeline of talent running. The Mets have a well-deserved reputation for "sticking to slot" in the draft, but a solid international program and good scouting have allowed the system to remain respectable nonetheless.

The honor of organizational top prospect is between OF Fernando Martinez and RHP Jenrry Mejia. It seems like Martinez has been a prospect forever, but he’s still only 21 and was just beginning to tap his raw power potential in Triple-A in 2009. Mejia is a small right-handed pitcher who can get his fastball close to triple digits along with a changeup and curve that both flash plus potential. Most likely to contribute in 2010 are LHP Jon Niese and C Josh Thole. Niese is essentially a finished product. He throws a wicked curveball, two decent fastballs, and an average changeup. He lacks ace upside, but may already be the third- or fourth-best pitcher in the organization. Thole is a low-power high-contact hitter who has walked more than he’s struck out at virtually every minor league stop he’s made. The problem is he’s only been a catcher for two full seasons, and could use another year in Triple-A to hone his defense. If the Mets had not recently signed Rod Barajas, Thole would have been in the mix for starting catcher in 2010.

Despite a knack for draft-day failures, the Mets have done an excellent job importing international talent. Infielders Wilmer Flores and Ruben Tejada both rank among the organization’s top prospects, along with pitchers Jeurys Familia and Juan Urbina. Though most of the franchise’s recent draft classes have been weak, 2008 marks a major exception. Ike Davis, the Mets' top overall pick from 2008, is already being hailed as the first baseman of the future; he could see big-league action perhaps as soon 2010‘s All-Star break, but more likely he will be held back until 2011. Infielder Reese Havens and RHP Brad Holt, also first round picks from 2008, both seem primed to have significant big-league impact as well. Beyond that, there have been two major surprises from this draft class: Third-round pick Kirk Nieuwenhuis—an outfielder who has displayed impressive power, speed, and defensive tools; and 24th round pick RHP Kyle Allen—a two-way player in college who was considered an early-to-mid-round talent that fell due to a strong perceived commitment to attend NC State.

This is a solid system overall, with more depth and upper-level talent than many would have you believe. The fact that Martinez and Niese failed to graduate from their rookie status last year helps, but there is more depth in the mid and lower levels than the mainstream media typically suggests. Even if there is no true "A" prospect, there’s lots of upside and lots of polish in the upper levels, just spread out among different players. Don’t be surprised if the Mets' farm is more productive in 2010 and 2011 than it has been since Omar Minaya first took over the organization.

Miscellaneous

Manager Jerry Manuel doesn't appear to have any discernible on-field strengths. His approach to lineup construction leaves plenty to be desired, as he often inserts low on-base percentage guys at the top because of distant-past accomplishments or because they have been previously miscast as table-setters. He seems to generally understand that the team's best hitters should bat somewhere in the middle of the order, and he's not as reluctant as his predecessor Willie Randolph to give young players central roles in the lineup.

Manuel also holds fast to the conventional belief that a closer should pitch the ninth inning under any and all circumstances, even when higher-leverage situations in earlier innings clearly call for use of the team's best pitcher. This miscarriage of rationality is hardly Manuel's exclusive domain, as basically every big-league manager hews to that same illogical tenet of post-reserve-clause baseball. That he's not alone in his transgression shouldn't absolve Manuel of this unambiguous case of bullpen mismanagement; a dumb thing is still dumb even if thirty people think otherwise.

Manuel does have a good rapport with the local media, and his casual references to everything being 'gangsta' surely endear him to the almost-entirely-white press corps. He also wears emo glasses, which undoubtedly led to the Mets' viewership surge last year among tweens and Rivers Cuomo.

Hitting coach Howard Johnson seems to have a good relationship with his hitters, but you wouldn't know it, given that they performed in 2009 as if they wanted him gone.

Pitching coach Dan Warthen is unspectacular in every way imaginable. He never seems particularly interested in what's going on in the game, and his pitchers appear equally ambivalent about whatever he has to say when he goes out to the mound.

Conclusion

This is an important season in the front office career of General Manager Omar Minaya. Minaya is very comfortable at the margins: acquiring—either via free agency or trade—elite, usually expensive, talent, and foraging for lost talent or last drops of usefulness amid the baseball scrap heap. The signings of Carlos Beltran, Pedro Martinez, and Jason Bay representing the former; bargain-basement pickups like Fernando Tatis, Jose Valentin, and Pedro Feliciano to name a few of the latter.

Where Minaya struggles is in the middle area, often failing miserably to complement his high-priced superstars with mid-level veterans. The Mets' team payroll is regularly among the highest in baseball, but it is disproportionately allocated to a few players with far less earmarked for the rest of the roster. The result of this resource-bungling is that the talent distribution is heavily concentrated in a handful of players, magnifying the deleterious impact of an injury to one of those players. A more uniform distribution of talent across the roster would help mitigate against the effects of losing any particular player.

The upshot of all of this is that the Mets will spend well over $100 million on players in 2010 but will still enter the season with near-replacement value at first base, second base, catcher, and in right field, while injuries will force them into playing less-than-ideal candidates in center field and at shortstop as well. That's a big problem, and if the Mets don't find a way to outpace their expectations for 2010 and erase the bad memories of 2009, Minaya—and others—could be out of a job come October, if not sooner.

The wife of former Venezuelan President Carlos Andres Perez ridiculed an attempt to extradite her husband from the United States, suggesting that President Hugo Chavez is attempting to create a spectacle to distract from domestic problems.

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) -- Venezuela's Supreme Court has cleared the way for the government to seek former President Carlos Andres Perez's extradition from the United States.

Venezuela: OK to seek ex-president’s extradition CARACAS, Venezuela ? Venezuela’s Supreme Court has cleared the way for the government to seek former President Carlos Andres Perez’s extradition from the United States. Perez is wanted for trial on charges stemming from violence during 1989 protests over gasoline and transportation prices. Prosecutors allege Perez ordered a harsh crackdown in which ... Read more »»».

Venezuela's Supreme Court has cleared the way for the government to seek former President Carlos Andres Perez's extradition from the United States.

Venezuela's Supreme Court has cleared the way for the government to seek former President Carlos Andres Perez's extradition from the United States.

Venezuela's Supreme Court has cleared the way for the government to seek former President Carlos Andres Perez's extradition from the United States.

Source: [b]Associated Press[/b]

Mar 18, 10:52 PM EDT
Venezuela: OK to seek ex-president's extradition

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) -- Venezuela's Supreme Court has cleared the way for the government to seek former President Carlos Andres Perez's extradition from the United States.

Perez is wante...

Venezuela's Supreme Court has cleared the way for the government to seek former President Carlos Andres Perez's extradition from the United States.

Kid Rock has been found guilty of assault on three fans in LA – but he’s ‘only’ got to pay a fine of $35,000. The Kid was alleged to have attacked Michael Medlin, Jose Perez and Carlos Bonilla outside the Roosevelt Hotel in March 2006, when they approached him and members of the hip hop crew [...]

In reply to Minor League Camp - Roster Update :

TOM: Mario Mercedes was released during Spring Training) 2009, but then was re-signed when the Cubs decided to release Carlos Perez right at the very end of Minor League Camp. Mercedes ended up getting a lot more playing time at Peoria than was originally anticipated, and he did a surprisingly good job for the Chiefs when he did get a chance to play.

I would expect Mercedes to probably move up to Daytona with Nelson Perez and Junior Lake in 2010, and then eventually get into coaching or managing in the Cubs organization, just as Casey Kopitzke did. Same goes for Robinson Chirinos, BTW.

Mercedes served as a "Big Brother" mentor for Nelson Perez and Junior Lake at Peoria last year, just as OF Min-Kyu Sung did for Dae-Eun Rhee in 2008. (Sung was a 25-year old South Korean who played college ball in the U. S. at Nebraska-Omaha, and Oneri Fleita signed him as a NDFA prior to the 2008 season specifically to provide a "Big Brother" mentor for Rhee while Rhee was at Peoria. Sung eventually did get activated at some point during the season and even got a couple of ABs with the Chiefs).

The Cubs recently signed a retired South Korean professional player named Woong Chen Cho as a "Special Spring Training Instructor," and he is presently working as a coach (mainly with the Korean players) at Minor League Camp.

Here it is, one day before "The Ides of March" and the so-called pundits, as well as the vast majority of the Mets' faithful, are in full panic mode and have come to bury Caesar long before the body is cold.

Come on everybody, 2009 was officially over on Oct 3. Or if you believe in the Julius Caesar calendar, how about 11:59PM and 59 seconds on December 31.

Just because two out the top five players will not be in the starting lineup on opening day and the so-called starting rotation has looked a trifle bit shaky three weeks into spring training, it doesn't mean we should holding our Hari Kari swords about 18 inches from the point of entry.

It's true that I have been a Mets fan since Opening Day, 1962, and believe me there were years that the season was over before the first pitcher threw their first fastball in February.

It wasn't until the spring of 1968 did any Met fan on the planet see this team with the possibility of showing some real competition between the lines. Seaver and Kooseman were young arms with a world of potential, and the manager was a patient man who was going to observe his team very carefully for the entire season and make the adjustments to turn them into a perennial winner and contender for years to come.

But I am digressing a bit here, so let's flash forward to 2010.

What is it going to take from the Mets organization to put a winning and competitive team out there and challenge the Phillies, while keeping pace with the Braves and the Marlins as well.

Are we closer to last place than to first?

I don't think so. Outside of Mets training camp, all the talk has been about the injuries to Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes and why it's "Deja Vu" all over again.

No! It is not by a long stretch of the imagination. Let's take a better look.

In the case of Beltran, who started off the 2009 like a house on fire and seemed to be heading for his best season as a Met, Carlos had his surgery in January. Not May, not June of 2010, but in January. Early reports said we wouldn't possibly see him until June.

Panic time? NO!

With Opening Day still three weeks away, now we are hearing the possibility for a mid-April return. Not too shabby.

For Jose, we are hearing anywhere between two and eight weeks. But that started a week ago, not yesterday, and since this has been a mild thyroid case (according to medical experts), a return by May 1 is certainly not out of the question.

I remember an Angels team as recently as last year that had none of it's starters ready for Opening Day and wound up taking the Yankees to six games for a World Series appearance.

My worst nightmare is to see an opening defense with Alex Cora and Luis Castillo moving in slow motion for a ball hit up the middle. Oh no, that thought is in real time.

Rueben Tejada is a very acceptable, one month replacement.

Here's what I have seen so far that has me greatly encouraged:

David Wright has three spring home runs, and he is looking very comfortable at the plate not lunging after fastballs that he couldn't catch up to last year.

I like that Mike Pelfrey got banged around against Boston in the first inning and then bounced right back and threw three, almost unhittable innings, striking out batters in the process.

I liked that Ollie Perez is in the best shape of his life and is also throwing strikes. Four hit-less innings wasn't all that shabby either.

I like the fact that Nelson Figueroa doesn't look 35, and he would my choice as the fifth starter ahead of both Jon Niese and Fernando Nieve, who are both quite capable of pitching in the five spot.

I like the energy and emotion that Jeff Francoeur is bringing to this club, and for those of you who think his totals for the Mets last year were an aberration, you are all in for a big surprise.

I like that Fernando Martinez and Ike Davis are tearing the cover off the ball, and with 400 ABs in AAA, these two guys may still contribute to the big club before the end of the season.

I like the professionalism that Jason Bay has brought to the team. For those of you who don't believe he is a 25/100 guy, you are dreadfully wrong.

I like the way that Daniel Murphy gets better everyday, both on the field and in the box. I watched every inning of every game last year, and this guy doesn't know the meaning of quit. There will be a lot less pressure on him this year, and I expect a very solid, if not outstanding, performance from him. No, he isn't Keith Hernandez or John Olerude, but he's only 24, and he will wind up as a very productive player in 2010.

I like the fact that those who see our farm system as weak and without depth need to look no further than 20-year-old pitching sensation Jenry Mejia, who is already drawing comparisons to Dwight Gooden and Mariano Rivera.

I like the catching situation, with two extremely capable veterans in Barojas and Blanco being there to mentor future catcher Josh Thole, who has "Major League" written all over himself.

What I like the best is that this year's New York Mets will be underestimated by every team they play, and like Tampa Bay of 2008, this Mets team is going to surprise a lot of people—especially its fans and those who cover this team in the media.

Most of you reading this are probably thinking this guy's nuts and the Mets will be closer to last place then to first by season's end. And that's your right to believe and think that way. I just want to go on record early enough to pick the team for a definite run for the playoffs in 2010.

Playoffs? Did he really say playoffs?

Yes I did, and living here in Vegas, I get the opportunity to put my money where my mouth is. Right now the Mets over and under for the season is 81 wins.

Are you kidding me?

They will have 81 wins by September 10. You heard it here first, and blast me if you will, but mark this one down and take it to the bank.

Let's Go Mets!

Fresno Bee

Mets' Perez throws four hitless innings New York Post (blog) 1 hitter in succession in the third inning, but got out of trouble when Angel Pagan crashed into the wall to haul in Carlos Guillen's drive. ... NY Mets pitchers Oliver Perez, Hisanori Takahashi handcuff Detroit Tigers in routThe Star-Ledger - NJ.com Perez Follows Weak Outing With a Promising OneNew York Times (blog) all 132 news articles »

1. Conceptual: shared and unique complexity signatures in geographic systems; existing and emerging geographical and complexity theories; epistemological and ontological influences; complexity based model designs; networks and hybrid models; linking classical and spatial statistics in complexity studies.
2. Technical: space-time patterns and dynamics; standardizing the development and representation of complex systems; rule selection and implementation; multiple-scale interactions and structure, system evolution and self-organization; learning and adaptation; calibration, validation and verification; path-dependence; non-linearity.
3. Applications: effectiveness of complexity models when embedded in political, institutional and socio-economic systems; human-environment interactions; earth systems science; land use science; landscape ecology; sustainability analysis; infectious and chronic disease; neighborhood effects on health.

We had numerous papers submitted and we have divided them up into 7 sessions as you can see below. The sessions start on Saturday, 4/17/10 and conclude on Sunday, 4/18/10.

Perspectives on Geographic Complexity (1): Theories and Methods

Saturday, 4/17/10, from 8:00 AM - 9:40 AM in Washington Room 5, Marriott Exhibition Level

Chair: Alison Heppenstall - University of Leeds

Abstracts:

Authors: *Sara Metcalf & Michael Widener - University at Buffalo

Title: S(t)imulating (S)pace: Cultivating a Postmodern Geographic (Con)science

Authors: *Amit Patel, School of Public Policy, George Mason University, Phoram Shah - MPA

Title: Slum Formation Theory: A Simulation Approach

Authors: *Itzhak Benenson - Tel Aviv University, Israel, Erez Hatna - Wageningen University, The Netherlands

Title: Warning, the Rationality of Spatial Agents is Bounded!

Authors: *Monica Wachowicz - Wageningen UR, Jack Owens - Idaho State University

Abstract Title: Space-Time Representation of Narrative Knowledge

Author: *Claudio Cioffi-Revilla, - George Mason University

Title: MASON AfriLand: A Regional Multi-Country Agent-Based Model with Cultural and Environmental Dynamics

Perspectives on Geographic Complexity (2): Methods and Data Issues

Saturday, 4/17/10, from 10:00 AM - 11:40 AM in Washington Room 5, Marriott Exhibition Level

Chair: Alison Heppenstall - University of Leeds

Abstracts:

Authors: *H. Van Dyke Parunak & Sven A. Brueckner- Vector Research Center, Division of TTGSI

Title: Polyagent-Based Mapping of Aleatoric Uncertainty in Geospatial Trajectories

Author: *Geoffrey Jacquez - BioMedware, Inc.

Title: space-time intelligence system software for the analysis of complex geographic systems

Authors: *Wenwu Tang - University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, David A. Bennett - University of Iowa, Shaowen Wang - University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Title: Parallel Agent-based Modeling for Large-scale Geographic Systems

Authors: *Burak Güneralp - Yale University, Michael K. Reilly - Stanford University, & Karen C. Seto - Yale University

Abstract Title: Simulating feedbacks across and among scales in land change science: An operational framework

Author: *Arika Ligmann-Zielinska - Michigan State University

Title: Variance-Based Global Sensitivity Analysis of Decision Making Mechanisms in an Agent-Based Model of Land Use Change

Perspectives on Geographic Complexity (3): Disease and Health Modeling

Saturday, 4/17/10, from 12:40 PM - 2:20 PM in Washington Room 5, Marriott Exhibition Level

Chair: Seth Spielman - Brown University

Abstracts:

12:40 PM Author(s): *Debarchana Ghosh - Kent State University, Rajarshi Guha - National Institute of Health

Title: Identifying optimal risk factors for prediction and interpretation of West Nile virus occurrences using Neural Network

Author: *Gabriela Alcaraz V. - University of Hohenheim

Title: Use of GIS for the analysis of food and nutrition security. An application to Guatemala.

Authors: Joshua King - Department of Geography and Environmental Management, University of Waterloo, *Peter J. Deadman - University of Waterloo

Title: An Agent Based Approach to Epidemiological Modelling of Malaria

Author: *Lara J. Iverson - SUNY University at Buffalo

Title: Incorporating Gender and Stigma in Modeling Tuberculosis Transmission: A Complex Systems Approach

Authors: *Monica Teran-Hernandez - Universidad Nacional Autonoma De Mexico, Unam, Miguel Aguilar Robledo - Universidad AutÓnoma De San Luis Potosl, Jaqueline Calderon Hernandez - Universidad Autonoma De San Luis Potosl, Carlos Felix Garrocho Rangel - Colegio Mexiquense, Ac

Title: The Spatial Dynamics of oncogenic Human Papillomavirus Infection in women from San Luis Potosí, Mexico: Some Preliminary Results

Perspectives on Geographic Complexity (4): Agent-Based Modeling and Sustainability Science

Saturday, 4/17/10, from 2:40 PM - 4:20 PM in Washington Room 5, Marriott Exhibition Level

Chair: Steven M. Manson - University Of Minnesota

Abstracts:

Author: *Qing Tian & Dan Brown - University of Michigan

Abstract Title: Exploring the Dynamics of Sustainability of Coupled Human-Environment Systems using Agent-based Modeling: A Case Study in the Poyang Lake Region of China

Authors: *Dawn C. Parker - University of Waterloo, Daniel G. Brown - University of Michigan
Tatiana Filatova - University of Twente, Rick Riolo - University of Michigan, Derek T. Robinson - University of Michigan, Shipeng Sun - University of Minnesota

Title: A first assessment of the role of land-market dynamics in agent-based land exchange models

Authors: *David A. Bennett - Department of Geography, University of Iowa, Wenwu Tang - Department of Geography and National Center for Supercomputing Applications, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Title: Modeling the Sustainable Use of Common-Pool Resources Using Spatially Aware Intelligent Agents

Author: *Luis E. Fernandez - Carnegie Institution for Science

Title: A Coupled Agent Based Model Platform Examining the Sustainability of Biofuels Production in the Brazilian Cerrado

Authors: *Stephen J. Walsh - University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill & Carlos F. Mena - Universidad San Francisco de Quito

Title: Land Use Change on Household Farms in the Ecuadorian Amazon

Perspectives on Geographic Complexity (5): Modeling Land Use and Land Cover Change

Saturday, 4/17/10, from 4:40 PM - 6:20 PM in Washington Room 5, Marriott Exhibition Level

Chair: Suzana Dragicevic - Simon Fraser University

Abstracts:

4:40 PM Authors: *Moira Zellner - University of Illinois-Chicago & Antonio Aguilera - Colegio de San Luis

Abstract Title: Exploring the effects of land use policies in urban-rural fringe areas in the Mexican context: An agent-based approach

5:00 PM Authors: *Tom Evans - Indiana University, Kellly Caylor - Princeton University
Sean Sweeney - Indiana University, Mateus Batistella - EMBRAPA, Juliana Farinaci - University of Campinas, Emilio Moran - Indiana University

Abstract Title: Balancing Social and Ecological Complexity in Models of Reforestation in Indiana (USA) and São Paulo (Brazil)

5:20 PM Authors: *Christopher Bone, Lilian Alessa, Andy Kliskey - Resilience and Adaptive Management Group, University of Alaska Anchorage & Mark Altaweel - University of Chicago

Abstract Title: Simulating Community Resilience to Freshwater Dynamics with Social Agents

5:40 PM Authors: *Tim Gulden, Gabriel Balan, Jeffrey Bassett, Atesmachew B Hailegiorgis, William G Kennedy - George Mason University & Mark Rouleau - Michigan Technological University

Abstract Title: An agent-based model of land-use driven conflict among pastoralists in the Mandera region of East Africa

6:00 PM Author: *David Donato - United States Geological Survey

Abstract Title: Measuring Conformance of a Grid State to a Stochastic Cellular-Automata Land-Change Model

Perspectives on Geographic Complexity (6): Urban Systems I

Sunday, 4/18/10, from 8:00 AM - 9:40 AM in Washington Room 5, Marriott Exhibition Level

Chair: Moira Zellner - University of Illinois-Chicago

Abstracts:

8:00 AM Authors: *Suzana Dragicevic & Liliana Perez - Simon Fraser University

Abstract Title: Simulating Disease Outbreak in an Urban Environment: Agent Based Approach

8:20 AM Author: *Atesmachew Hailegiorgis - Department of Computational Social Science, Center of Social Complexity, George Mason University

Abstract Title: Changing Residence in the City: An agent based model of Residential Mobility in Arlington County

8:40 AM Author: *Yichun Xie - Eastern Michigan University

Abstract Title: Simulating Urban Development in Water-constrained Northwest China: A Case Study along the Mid-Section of Silk Road

9:00 AM Authors: *Ninghua Wang - San Diego Stata University/University of California Santa Barbara & Lin Liu - University of Cincinnati

Abstract Title: Analyzing spatial effects of hotspot policing with a simulation approach

9:20 AM Authors: *Dominik P.H. Kalisch, *Hermann Koehler, Reinhard Koenig, Jens Steinhoefel & Frauke Anders - Bauhaus University, Weimar

Abstract Title: Computer-Based Methods for a Socially Sustainable Urban and Regional Planing


Perspectives on Geographic Complexity (7): Urban Systems II

Sunday, 4/18/10, from 10:00 AM - 11:40 AM in Washington Room 5, Marriott Exhibition Level

Chair: Andrew Crooks - George Mason University

Abstracts:

Authors: *Fraser Morgan & David O’Sullivan - University of Auckland

Abstract Title: Residential developers: Competition, behaviour and the resulting urban landscape

Authors: *Christian Urich, Robert Sitzenfrei, & Wolfgang Rauch - Unit of Environmental Engineering, University of Innsbruck

Abstract Title: Stochastic Design of Urban Areas for Benchmarking Energy Strategies

Authors: *Raymond Cabrera & Peter J Deadman - University of Waterloo

Abstract Title: Household networks and urbanization in an agent-based model of the Amazonian varzea

Authors: *Jing Wu & Zheng Wang - Chinese Academy of Sciences

Abstract Title: Agent-based simulation of the spatial evolution of the historical population in China

Author: *Hoda Osman - George Mason University

Title: Urban Growth and Land Titling: An agent-based comparative model of two Informal Settlements in Cairo, Egypt


All the sessions are sponsored by the AAG's
Spatial Analysis and Modeling Specialty Group
Geographic Information Science and Systems Specialty Group
Human Dimensions of Global Change Specialty Group

Note * represents the speaker