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This is a video of some creepy-ass robotic performance piece. And it just so happens to contain two of my least favorite things in the whole entire world: robots and crying babies. It's terribly painful to watch, especially considering the bot comes out with guns blazing. Thankfully, the piece does have a happy ending if you can make it that far. Which, honestly, I never can. You start massaging my lower back and it's all over. The softer side of Japanese WTFery [wtfjapanseriously] Thanks to Ryan and Kawaii Bakemono, who would have dove out of the box seats and John Wilkes Booth'ed that bad mammer jammer.

Q. Is it true there are more germs in the human mouth than around a dog's anus? –R. T. Tin

A. The usual comparison is between the human mouth and dog's mouth, not the dog's other end, says Dr. Joseph Zambon of the University of Buffalo School of Dental Medicine.  

Some 200-300 different bacterial species may hang out in the human oral cavity, plus viruses and other microorganisms. Certainly, people with diseased gums have more bacteria and more types of bacteria than dogs with healthy mouths.

"But you can make the other, more colorful comparison as well. There are higher concentrations of bacteria in human dental plaque than in a dog's feces." So you might extend this to include the dog's alimentary exit point as well.

Q. Few people survive falls from very great heights. When they do, what may be the physics at work? –I. Carus

A. The victims reach a "terminal speed," where air drag offsets acceleration and falling speed maxes out, at maybe 100-200 miles per hour, says Jearl Walker in The Flying Circus of Physics. The other critical factor is how they land. A "hard" collision may last for only 0.001 to 0.01 second, with the force certain to be lethal. But for a "softer" collision (taking longer to stop), survival becomes possible:

1. February 1955: A paratrooper fell 370 meters (1,200 feet) from a C-119 airplane without managing to deploy his parachute. He landed on his back in soft snow, creating a crater a meter deep. Air-evacuated to a hospital, he had only minor bone fractures and a few bruises.

2. World War II: I.M. Chissov, a lieutenant in the Soviet Air Force, bailed out when attacked by a dozen Messerschmitts. To avoid being a "sitting duck," he delayed deployment of his parachute. Unfortunately, he lost consciousness during the seven-kilometer fall (over four miles). Fortunately, he hit a snowy ravine, and although injured, was back in uniform within four months.

3. More bizarre was Henri LaMothe's 1970s stunt of diving from 12 meters (39 feet) and belly-flopping into a pool of water barely 30 centimeters deep (about 12 inches), hitting with a force about 70 times his body weight. Apparently this amount of cushioning water was enough. ("Don't try this," warns Walker. "One foolish guy who did ended up paralyzed from the neck down.")

Q. What's a major league baseball pitcher's secret to throwing a sharp-breaking curve ball? –C. Young

A. Oddly, this classic weapon may have more to do with the batter himself than is commonly suspected. A spinning baseball actually moves in a smoothly curving trajectory but seems to change directions suddenly.

Psychologist Arthur Shapiro of Bucknell University offers this: Viewers who look directly at a pitched baseball perceive it correctly as moving downwards under the influence of gravity, while those viewing it out of the corner of their eye perceive it to be moving at an angle. 

Perhaps when we use our peripheral vision system, the brain uses internal motion cues to interpret overall direction, so the ball appears to move to the side. In other words, the pitch starts off in the center of a batter's foveal vision but then overlaps the peripheral system as the ball draws closer and closer, forcing the batter to shift his visual attention. 

"This transition may be why such balls appear to change direction suddenly," Shapiro adds. Interestingly, the U.S. Vision Sciences Society has voted the curve ball as "Visual Illusion of the Year" for 2009.

~
Send Strange questions to brothers Bill and Rich at strangetrue@cs.com.
#

After receiving much love from audiences over the past year, and winning a Grammy, French pop band Phoenix is giving something back: a free live album is now available for download on their website.

Recorded earlier this month, Live in Sydney includes performances of eight tracks from 2009's Wolfgang Amadeus Phoenix, which landed at No. 3 on SPIN's 40 Albums of the Year list.

The free live album serves as a primer for yet another North American tour for the Parisian quartet, which kicks off April 17 in Santa Cruz, California, stops at Coachella the following day, and wraps up June 13 at this year's Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival in Manchester, Tennessee, where their worldwide touring for Wolfgang actually began in June 2009.

Check out the group's complete tour schedule here.

While their shows this Spring will be full-blown, full-band affairs, Phoenix has a softer side, too, which they displayed during a stripped down performance at SPIN last December.

Download Phoenix's album here >>

The Review at a Glance: (max score: 5 ) Film: Extras: Audio/Video total rating:

( Max score: 100 )

85

Studio and Year: 20th Century Fox - 2009 MPAA Rating: PG Feature running time: 87 minutes Genre: Animtion/Family Disc Format: BD-50 Encoding: AVC (MPEG-4) Video Aspect: 1.85:1 Resolution: 1080p/24
Audio Format(s): English DTS-HD 5.1 Master Audio, Spanish/French/Portuguese Dolby Digital 5.1 Subtitles:English, English SDH, Spanish, Portuguese, French, Cantonese, Mandarin Starring: Voices of: George Clooney, Meryl Streep, Jason Schwartzman, Willem Dafoe, Michael Gambon, Owen Wilson, Bill Murray Directed by: Wes Anderson Music by: Alexandre Desplat Written by: Wes Anderson & Noah Baumbach - Adapted from the book by Roald Dahl Region Code: 1 Blu-ray Disc release Date: March 23, 2010

"And so it begins"

Film Synopsis:

In there-imagined classic family tale, Mr. and Mrs. Fox live a happy home life with their eccentric son Ash (Jason Schwartzman) and visiting nephew Kristopherson. That is until Mr. Fox slips into his sneaky, old ways and plots the greatest heist the animal world has ever seen. When mean old farmers Boggis, Bunce and Bean join forces to surround Mr. Fox and his family, they don’t realize they are not dealing with any old fox – it’s Fantastic Mr. Fox and he has a fantastic master plan to save the day!

My Take:

Adapted from the beloved children’s book by of the same name by Roald Dahl Fantastic Mr. Fox follows the misadventures of Mr. Fox, his wife Felicity, their son Ash, and nephew Kristofferson after Mr. Fox’s pilfering from three local farmers sets off a fervent search for him that ultimately comes to affect not only his family but many of the animals that commune in the area. The story begins with Mr. Fox (George Clooney) leading his wife Felicity (Streep) on a raiding mission of a squab farm when the two become caged in a trap set by the farm’s owner. Felicity reveals to Fox that she is pregnant and pleads with him to find a safer job should they escape. Two years later, the Foxes and their sullen son Ash (Jason Schwartzman), are living in a hole. Fox, now a newspaper columnist, decides to move the family into a better home in the base of a tree, ignoring the warnings of his lawyer Badger (Bill Murray). The tree is adjacent to three large farming facilities run by Walter Boggis, Nathan Bunce, and Franklin Bean. Soon after the Foxes move in, Felicity's nephew Kristofferson comes to live with them after his father has fallen ill. Ash finds this situation intolerable since seemingly everyone, including his own father, mentions the fact that his easy going and meditating cousin, is apparently superior to him in every way imaginable. Living so close to the three farms Fox finds temptation to great, and devises a master plan to steal from each of them but keeps it from Felicity. He enlists the help of an opossum, Kylie, the local maintenance guy and resident worrywart. The plan successfully comes off in three stages however the farmers, angered by the theft, call a meeting and come with up their own plan, which is to get rid of Mr. Fox by digging him out. As the farmers onslaught begins, the Fox’s tunnel their way underground and escape. In the process they run into Badger, and many of the other local animal residents whose homes have also been destroyed during the siege.

As the animals begin to fear starvation, Fox leads a digging expedition to the three nearby farms, robbing them clean of Boggis' chickens, Bunce's ducks and geese, and Bean's turkeys, apples, and alcoholic cider. In the meantime Ash and Kristofferson come up with the idea of breaking into Bean's farm, intending to reclaim Fox's tail (which had been shot off by Bean during the farmers initial attempt to kill Mr. Fox), only to find that Bean has taken to wearing it as a necktie. When they are interrupted by the arrival of Bean's wife, Ash escapes but Kristofferson is captured. The animals are forced to retreat into the sewers when the farmers flood their hiding place with cider, and Fox learns that the farmers plan to use Kristofferson as bait to lure him into an ambush. Mr. Fox will have to devise a master plan capable of saving the day and proving he is indeed Fantastic!

I enjoyed this film and loved the stop motion animation which truly is an amazing art form. Director Wes Anderson’s passion for the book, its author and the story is clearly evident. I think he captures the spirit of both very well by conveying it using a medium that helps to stimulate the imagination. It features a terrific cast of Hollywood notables headlined by George Clooney and Meryl Streep and includes contributions by Owen Wilson, Michael Gambon, Bill Murray, and Willem Dafoe. The film was nominated for Academy Awards for Best Animated Feature and Best Original Score, was a nominated for 2010 Critics Choice Awards for Best Animated Feature, and a Golden Globe Award for Best Animated Feature Film[23]. It ultimately lost all the nominations to Disney’s Up. Fantastic Mr. Fox makes for great family entertainment and looks splendid in high definition on Blu-ray from Fox.

Parental Guide:

The rating is for action, smoking, and slang humor.

AUDIO/VIDEO - By The Numbers: REFERENCE = 92-100 / EXCELLENT = 83-91 / GOOD = 74-82 / AVERAGE = 65-73 / BELOW AVERAGE = under 65 **My audio/video ratings are based upon a comparative made against other high definition media/blu-ray disc.** (Each rating is worth 4 points with a max of 5 per category)

Audio: 80

• Dynamics:
• Low frequency extension:
• Surround Sound presentation:
• Clarity/Detail:
• Dialogue Reproduction:

Video: 90

(Each rating is worth 4 points with a max of 5 per category)

• Resolution/Clarity:
• Black level/Shadow detail:
• Color reproduction:
• Fleshtones:
• Compression:

Fantastic Mr. Fox comes to Blu-ray from Fox featuring 1080p AVC encoded video that has an average bitrate of 20 mbps and lossless DTS-HD 5.1 Master Audio sound that has an average bitrate of 2.6 mbps.

This is an excellent video presentation that boasts visually enticing imagery that looks great in high definition. Fantastic Mr. Fox on Blu-ray offers beautifully crafted stop motion animation that exhibits eye catching resolution and refined clarity. The shading and lighting used results in a dimensionally strong presentation that doesn’t exhibit dynamic contrast or deep penetrating hues. Colors utilize a limited and softer palette that is most decidedly a stylistic choice that mates well with the source in a satisfying way. Golden splashed highlights, sepia tones and beiges make up the majority of the color base with various stages of gray is used in various stages in both objects and backgrounds. Blacks are punchy and appear deep when onscreen with mixed content. Detail in shady areas and darkly lit backgrounds are excellent which enhances visual perspective in dim lighting. This is a pristine and visually engaging high definition presentation that looked amazing on my large screen. The lossless DTS-HD 5.1 Master Audio soundtrack is solid as well. Dynamics are defining without being strident or edgy. Dialogue is rendered with refined clarity and revealing tonal character that has deep room penetration. The presentation has a frontal perspective with a diffused soundstage and well articulated detail. There is occasional use of discrete and spatial surround activity that adds depth to environmental sounds and provides front channel extension that broadens the sound field. Bass response wasn’t room filling but it appropriately supported the source elements and provided a tight, occasionally tactile low end.

Bonus Features:

• (HD) Making Mr. Fox fantastic (5 segments totaling 43 minutes) :
• 1. The look of Mr. Fox
  2. From script to screen
  3. The puppet makers
  4. Still life (puppet animation)
  5. The cast
  6. Bill (Murray) and his Badger
• (HD) A beginner’s guide to Whack-bat
• (HD) Fantastic Mr. Fox: The world or Roald Dahl – 3 minute featurette
• (HD) Theatrical trailer
• Bonus DVD of Fantastic Mr. Fox
• Bonus Disc – Digital Copy of Mr. Fox

Final Thoughts:

Wes Anderson’s film adaptation of Roald Dahl’s beloved children’s book Fantastic Mr. Fox successfully draws fans into the wondrous world of his characters and brings them to life using beautifully crafted stop-motion animation that makes for a visually stimulating experience in high definition. The bonus supplements will be more appealing to adult fans than kids as there is little offered for younger viewers to be enticed by. As always I appreciate the inclusion of both a digital copy and standard DVD versions of the film. Fantastic Mr. Fox is good family entertainment that presents extremely well in this Blu-ray offering from Fox. Recommended.

Ralph Potts AVS Forum Blu-ray Reviews

Reference Review System: JVC DLA-RS20 1080p High Definition Front Projector (Calibrated by Jeff Meier) Stewart Filmscreen - Studiotek 130 G3 100” 16x9 Screen Anthem AVM50v THX Ultra 2 Preamp/Video Processor Sherbourn Technologies - 7/200 Seven Channel Amplifier Oppo BDP-83 Universal disc/Blu-ray Player (HDMI Audio/Video) Toshiba HD-XA2 HD DVD Player (HDMI Audio/Video) Sony Playstation 3 Blu-ray disc Player (HDMI Audio/Video) Oppo 970HD universal disc DVD Player (480i HDMI) Philips TSU9400 Pro Series Touch Panel Remote Control Canton "Ergo" Series speakers Axiom Audio QS8 Quadpolar speakers SV Sound PB-13 Ultra (Rosenut finish) APC AV S15BLK Power Conditioner/Surge Protector Furman SPR-20i Stable Power Regulator Wireworld, VizionWare, Audioquest, Best Deal Cables - Audio/Video/Speaker Cabling Cool Components - CP-CP102 cooling package

I've kind of always hated the taste of almond extract. When I tried Pizzuta almonds for the first time it immediately became clear to me why—the Pizzutas are the flavor that almond extract is supposed to supplant. But it fails because like so many faux foods, the extract just doesn't quite "get it." I think these do. If you like almonds at all, it's worth tasting these. They're more intense, more almondy, more exotic than any other almond I've ever eaten.

It was sitting with Francesco Padova and Frank (Carollo, managing partner from the Zingerman's Bakehouse whose father's family coincidentally came here from Sicily two generations back) that I finally got clear on some of the basics of the almond world and what makes one different than the next. Francesco would know. His family, he told me, "has been in the food for ... forever." In a nutshell (sorry, couldn't resist), the story is that while almost all California almonds are soft-shelled and a fair bit of European almonds are semi-hard-shelled, the best tasting, most intensely flavored almonds are more often than not of the hard-shell varieties. There are very few areas in which these difficult-to-grow but very tasty hard-shelled almonds can still be had, but one of them is the area in which Francesco's family's farm is to be found, the eastern part of Sicily.

"In our area," Francesco told me, "80 percent of product is still the hard shell." "The difference is a 'natural packaging,'" Francesco put forward with a smile. "The more impenetrable is the shell, the more protected is the seed," he said. "Usually the shell determines the yield. The harder the shell the lower the yield. But also the higher the flavor."

How big is the yield gap? Big. In California the nut makes up about 60 percent of the whole almond. In Sicily, the yield is 18 to 22 percent. That got my attention—with one third the yield for Sicilian almonds, it starts to make sense why the cost is so much higher. "The content of essential oils is different too," Francesco went on. "The softer the shell, the lower the oils. But oils bring flavor. So for baking, when the oil is lower you get a less flaky pastry." This all makes perfect sense now that Francesco has told me, but not being an almond aficionado I just really hadn't given it much thought up until now.

The jewel in the Padova family's almond crown is the varietal known as the Pizzuta. "It's the signature of my family's district," Francesco said with obvious pride. "It's a very delicate tree. It's afraid of cold so it grows naturally near to the coast. You will never find the Pizzuta tree far from the sea. It's the most noble almond, the richest in vitamins and essential oils, and the flavor is milky." All this was borne out in tasting. The almonds really are exceptional. I will pretty safely say that the flavor is inversely related to the yields; while the latter are three times higher in California, the flavor of the Pizzutas from Sicily is a solid three times more interesting. Four days of sun drying (in the shell) intensifies their flavor and reduces their weight further still.

Tasting the Padova family's Pizzutas gave me a whole new avenue of interest into almonds. Like I said, it made me realize what the people who make commercial almond extract were going after when they "invented" it; it's an effort to replicate the unique, almost bitter and not quite sweet subtleties of these sorts of old-style hard-shelled almonds. And ironically, I can see that all the flavor components I don't like in almond extract are actually present in the Pizzuta as well, but here they're outstanding instead of off-putting. In the Pizzuta, the flavors are simply softer, more sensual, more rounded, more real, sort of ... mellifluous and harmonious.

Down the road, I'm sure we'll be working on some special Sicilian almond pastries out at the Bakehouse, but in the moment the main thing is that we've got these almonds on hand so you can have them for your own eating, baking, salads, and sauces. They're great to put out with a bit of cheese or some dried fruit. Good winter snacking, I think. And while it's safe to say that a small bowl of almonds isn't going to alter the balance of the universe or fix up the economy, they are really quite darned delicious, a gift of great culinary value to anyone in your life who's kind of nuts over nuts in particular, traditional foods, and great, unique, authentic flavors.

A couple of questions I get asked often are:

• Where do you post information online at?
• If I follow you on “X", will I see all of the information you post?

To address these questions and to make it easier to identify these locations, I am putting this post together to help clarify these items.  Below is a quick list of places online that I post and share information to:

	My Blog: http://www.MSPartnerBlog.com
	Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/EricLigman
	Linkedin - http://www.linkedin.com/in/ericligman
	Microsoft Partner Network Site: http://www.MicrosoftPartnerNetwork.com
	User Group: http://www.MSSmallBiz.com
	Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com

While I do populate information to each of the various online mediums in various different ways, they are not all necessarily linked directly together as I sometimes choose to share information in one or more of these vehicles but not in others or all of them.  In addition, some of these are open broadly to anyone, while others are not.  To help show how the information flows between these various resources and to give you a better idea of which ones you may want to subscribe to, I have put together a quick video to explain the interaction between these various resources and how I populate and automate information flow among these:

In a speech today, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart revealed three ways the (surprisingly) still ongoing Greek crisis could hurt the US:

I see three ways the Greek crisis might directly affect the U.S. economy. First, adjustment across the EU to fiscal problems could dampen euro area growth and constrain U.S. exports to that region. The European Union as a whole is this nation's largest export market. Second, related to this, safe haven currency flows from the euro into dollar assets could cause appreciation of the dollar and hurt U.S. export competitiveness. Third is the possibility that the Greek fiscal crisis could lead to a broad shock to financial markets. This could play out in the banking system or in the form of a general retreat from sovereign debt.

Below is the full speech, in which he also talks about recovery prospects and the muni debt situation. Good stuff:

---------------

This afternoon, I will give you an update on the U.S. economy and comment on conditions in the global economy that affect this country. I'll also offer views on the interplay between fiscal uncertainty here and abroad and appropriate monetary policy to achieve both growth and control of inflation.

The views that follow are mine alone and don't necessary reflect the views of my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

Current economic juncture
First, the national economy: I expect first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth numbers will show the economy continues to recover. The recovery began last summer and accelerated in the fourth quarter. Fourth quarter growth was driven by what I believe was the transitory phenomenon of slowing inventory liquidation. Most forecasters expect the first quarter to clock in at a slower but quite respectable pace of around 3 percent, and I agree with that view.

Underlying continued growth is a steady improvement in private spending in the United States. Consumer spending is expanding modestly.

Business spending on equipment and software is helping to offset softer housing and commercial construction.

Here in southwest Florida, you are well aware of the challenges faced in housing. In Naples, house prices have declined 64 percent from their peak in the second quarter of 2006 and have yet to stabilize.

Nationally, home sales slowed late last year, and sales have eased further so far this year. Continued stabilization of the housing sector—especially house prices—is likely a precondition for sustained economic recovery.

Although job cuts in the United States appear to have tapered off in recent months, the share of jobless receiving extended unemployment benefits has continued to grow. Last month's U.S. unemployment rate remained very high at 9.7 percent.

Another gauge of the labor market is the percentage of people who, along with the unemployed, have stopped looking for work—so-called discouraged workers—as well as those who are working fewer hours than they want. The combined unemployed and underemployed figure is about 17 percent of the workforce.

With job growth negative to flat, real incomes have stagnated. Total personal income, including transfers from the government, has grown modestly, but income from wages and salaries has declined from a year ago.

To give a context for these domestic developments, let me comment on the international environment in which our economy is evolving. Overall, the outlook for the global economy continues to improve, and international trade has rebounded sharply.

Emerging Asia is driving the global rebound, led by China and India. China's economic growth has been especially strong, lifting global demand for raw materials and capital goods. Latin America has weathered this global crisis much better than previous downturns thanks to stronger economic fundamentals. The region is further benefiting from rising commodity prices.

Meanwhile, recoveries in key developed economies, which still account for the largest share of our export market, have been much less dynamic. Japan's economy has fallen back into deflation, and its economic growth trajectory remains very uncertain. Europe's recovery is fragile as concerns mount about Greece and other countries with large fiscal burdens. I'll discuss this topic more in a moment. Overall, despite the notable divergence in growth rates between developed and emerging economies, the global economy is expected to expand at a solid pace this year, continuing to provide support for U.S. exporters.

Looking ahead, the central question for the United States is how strong the recovery will be and how long it will take to reduce unemployment.

Views about the economic outlook fall roughly into two narratives. Scenario one is the familiar V-shaped, strong bounce back from severe recession. In this scenario, growth exceeds the underlying long-term potential of the economy, and unemployment declines at a steady pace. Both consumer activity and business investment show growth. Exports contribute measurably to GDP, reflecting growth of our principal trading partners, particularly in Asia. The banking system successfully navigates a troubled commercial real estate sector and expands credit to both businesses and consumers, fueling a rather strong recovery.

By contrast, the second scenario is a relatively modest recovery, with slow reduction of unemployment. Various headwinds hold back GDP growth. They include (1) a weak banking sector that is slow to expand credit in part because of weak loan demand and commercial real estate problems, (2) subdued consumer activity reflecting a more frugal consumer mindset as well as restricted consumer credit, and (3) extremely cautious business investment in both inventory and capital goods.

Most forecasters see a future resembling the second narrative. My forecast—and that of my staff at the Atlanta Fed—is close to the second narrative. The recovery under way seems at this juncture to be tentative and fragile.

Greece and fiscal uncertainty
My staff and I typically incorporate known, somewhat quantifiable risks into our forecasts. I referred to these as headwinds. They are factors we expect to be drags on growth. There are other plausible emerging scenarios that are not factored into my formal outlook. I monitor these for evidence that they're materializing—becoming real—and need to be more formally considered. One such concern is what might be called "fiscal uncertainty."

You've all been reading about Greece and the European Union's handling of the Greek fiscal crisis. At the moment a nexus of fiscal uncertainty is the situation playing out in Greece.

Last October, the government of Greece revised its 2009 fiscal deficit sharply higher to more than 12 percent of GDP. Consequently, the ratio of public debt to GDP was revised up by 17 percentage points this year to 125 percent of GDP.

Investors around the world are concerned about Greece's deficit and rising debt. Market pressures, along with European Monetary Union mandates, have forced the government to present a credible plan to tame its deficit. As of today, how this will play out is not clear.

It's worth considering whether this is just a distant development or one with relevance to us here in the United States. What do fiscal problems in Greece have to do with my economic outlook for the United States?

I see three ways the Greek crisis might directly affect the U.S. economy. First, adjustment across the EU to fiscal problems could dampen euro area growth and constrain U.S. exports to that region. The European Union as a whole is this nation's largest export market. Second, related to this, safe haven currency flows from the euro into dollar assets could cause appreciation of the dollar and hurt U.S. export competitiveness. Third is the possibility that the Greek fiscal crisis could lead to a broad shock to financial markets. This could play out in the banking system or in the form of a general retreat from sovereign debt.

At this point, these possibilities are not factored into my outlook in any way. But developments around the Greek situation deserve rapt attention.

We have our own set of fiscal uncertainties in this country—at all levels of government. The National League of Cities projects that municipal governments will face a shortfall of $56 billion to $83 billion from 2010 to 2012. Local governments in this country are pressured by lower sales tax revenues and shrinking property tax digests along with other demands.

On average, state-level governments began fiscal year 2010 with a revenue-expenditure gap of 17 percent. Three states had expected budget gaps in excess of 40 percent. Florida's budget gap going into the current fiscal year (2010) was 23 percent.

Across the country, state governments have responded to these strains by drawing down rainy day funds, raising taxes, cutting budgets, and furloughing employees.

To date, some amount of spending cuts and tax increases at the state level have been avoided thanks to the federal stimulus package, but that infusion of money is temporary. It appears state budgets next year will need to shrink considerably to get to balance.

I'm sure you're familiar generally with the situation at the federal level. According to the Congressional Budget Office, under current law federal budget deficits rose from an average of about 2.4 percent of GDP in the period from 1970 to 2008 to 10 percent in 2009. No budget path currently under consideration would keep the public debt from growing relative to gross domestic product. Clearly, an ever-rising debt-to-GDP ratio is unsustainable and a matter of great concern.

Government finances are severely strained at all levels. All of these fiscal pressures represent another downside risk for the broad economy. But I see a connection to inflation risk as well. Let me explain.

The FOMC met last week. In that meeting the federal funds rate target was kept at the "low as it can go" range of 0 to 25 basis points. Also, the Committee, in its post-meeting statement, said that economic conditions are "likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period." This policy is obviously very accommodative, and, in my opinion, is appropriate for a recovery that is tentative and facing headwinds.

Policy dilemma forming
By congressional mandate, the Fed in conducting monetary policy must balance support for economic growth and the associated goal of bringing down unemployment with pursuit of price stability—low inflation. In my view, the current accommodative stance of policy is not inconsistent with the dual mandate as long as inflation expectations remain well anchored.

In these times of fiscal uncertainty I am concerned about the possibility of a monetary policy dilemma developing. If you, the public, become convinced nothing will be done to restore the federal fiscal balance, especially at the federal level, this skepticism may be reflected in inflation expectations. You may come to believe that the only plausible scenario is inflating our way out of the problem.

If such a situation begins to develop, the Fed will face a difficult trade-off between continued support for the recovery and aggressive action to reanchor inflation expectations.

For the time being, inflation expectations are holding steady, and incoming data suggest price pressures are muted. It is hard for me to summon much concern about inflation in the immediate future. Almost all measures of core inflation show indications of disinflation. But this pattern could shift. As a policymaker, I have to pay constant attention.

Inflation expectations as critical factor for policy
In my view, the capacity to maintain interest rates at the level appropriate to support the recovery depends critically on containment of inflation expectations.

The Greek drama we're watching with such great interest should heighten recognition of the urgent need here in the United States for a credible path to fiscal sustainability. Rising public awareness of the country's serious fiscal imbalances should serve as a call to action.

The nation has successfully navigated such challenging circumstances in the past and can do so again. With a credible fiscal plan, monetary policy should be able to remain supportive of the recovery that I'm confident will build in strength.

 

Join the conversation about this story »

See Also:

• The New Rift In Europe: France And Germany Increasingly At-Odds Over Greece And EU As A Whole
• Greece Has A Completely Unrealistic Rescue Plan For Itself
• Get Real, Here's Why The UK Is NOTHING Like Greece

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Thanks to the phenomenon known as "insomnia," aka "the crushing worries of existence, nestled at bedside," what follows is an alphabetical, standardized version of the list of current webcomics produced by CR readers on Friday evening. Although even I can think of a lot of great strips that no one mentioned, I think it's a pretty good list, and only three made me want to build a time machine to go back to caveman times and find some way to destroy mankind's artistic impulse. And then only for a few seconds. Mostly, there's a lot on even this admittedly very standard list with which I wasn't yet familiar. Anyway, I made a folder out of open new tabs and all tabs in a folder function, and look forward to digging in. Maybe you will, too. * 1930 Nightmare Theatre @ Dumm Comics, Kyle A. Carrozza and John Berry * 1977 The Comic, W. Byron Wilkins * Achewood, Chris Onstad * A Manga Addict, Sam Mooney * American Elf, James Kochalka * A Softer World, E Horne and J Comeau * Bad Machinery, John Allison * Bear Nuts, Alison Acton * Between Gears, Natalie Nourigat * Brat-Halla, Jeffery Stevenson and Seth Damoose * Briar Hollow, Terry Blas * Bug, Adam Huber * Cat and Girl, Dorothy Gambrell * College Roomies From Hell!!!, Maritza Campos * Daisy Owl, Ben Driscoll * Dark Horse MySpace Presents * Deadbeats, Richard Howell and Ricardo Villagran and Thom Zahler * Diesel Sweeties, R. Stevens * Dinosaur Comics, Ryan North * Dresden Codak, Aaron Diaz * Ellerbisms, Marc Ellerby * Ellie Connelly, Indigo Kelleigh * EmiTown, Emi Lenox * Endtown, Aaron Neathery * Freakangels, Warren Ellis and Paul Duffield * Girl Genius, Phil Foglio and Kaja Foglio * Girls With Slingshots, Danielle Corsetto * Goats, Jon Rosenberg * Hark! A Vagrant, Kate Beaton * Haunted, Josh Smeaton * Heropotamus, Josh Alves * Iron, SM Vidaurri * John & John, , d!o * Johnny Wander, Ananth Panagariya and Yuko Ota * Kawaii Not, Meghan Murphy * Lackadaisy, Tracy J. Butler * Let's Be Friends Again, Curt Franklin and Chris Haley * Liz Prince Power, Liz Prince * Max Vs. Max, Wes Molebash * Menage a 3, Giz and Dave Zero1 * Mugwhump the Great, Roger Langridge * My Cardboard Life, Philippa Rice * Nedroid Picture Diary, Anthony Clark * Oceanverse, Michael Schwartz * Octopus Pie, Meredith Gran * Pajama Forest!, Evan Diaz * Penny and Aggie, T. Campbell and Gisele Legace * Penny Arcade, Jerry Holkins and illustrated by Mike Krahulik * PhD: Piled Higher & Deeper, , Jorge Cham * Pokeweed, Drew Pocza * PvP, Scott Kurtz * Questionable Content, Jeph Jacques * reMIND, Jason Brubaker * Savage Chickens, Doug Savage * Sheldon, Dave Kellett * She Said, Kris Dresen * Shortpacked!, David Willis * Sinfest, Tatsuya Ishida * Sin Titulo, Cameron Stewart * Socks and Barney, Steve Conley * Spain & Morocco, Alex Fellows * Steve Bissette's King of Monster Isle, Steve Bissette * Strewth, Josh Way * SubCulture, Kevin Freeman and Stan Yan * Supernatural Law, Batton Lash * The Abominable Charles Christopher, Karl Kerschl * The Bean, Trav * The Non-Adventures of Wonderella, Justin Pierce * Tune, Derek Kirk Kim * Toddbot.com, Todd Webb * Wapsi Square, Paul Taylor * Whubble, Jamie Smart * Wondermark, David Malki * XKCD, Randall Munroe * Year of the Rat, Cayetano Garza Jr. Thanks to all the readers that participated.

The 2009/10 A-League Grand Final was as intense as you can get according to Sydney FC defender Simon Colosimo.

The defender, who took out the Joe Marston Medal for best afield, rated the clash with the Melbourne Victory up with the final match of the regular season at Sydney Football Stadium in front of 25,000 people that the Sky Blues won 2-0.

“That was as intense as the 14th February (final game of regular season),” Colosimo said after the match. “It had absolutely everything. There was respect for each other, there was hard tackling, there was a couple of jokes here and there on the pitch because that’s the way football is, there were guys kicking the ball out when someone was going down with cramp , there was absolutely everything out there as there was at the SFS that day.

“It’s testament to Melbourne and ourselves. We’ve both been the best two teams in the league this year.”

And Colosimo said it was no different playing the Grand Final in Melbourne as you are not going to play any softer due to the fact that you are away from home.

“I don’t think it makes any difference in Grand Finals, I really don’t,” he added. “We had great support and if you look at other Grand Finals in Australia, no matter what, there is one played up the road (AFL) and it doesn’t matter who’s playing in it, they can be from anywhere. You don’t see them going half-hearted or saying it was away or anything.

“Grand Finals….it’s the one. You saw after the game the Melbourne player’s faces, they put everything in into it.”

Colosimo flew to Korea the following yesterday take up a short-term deal with FC Seoul with the hope that he can push for selection for the Australian World Cup squad and although he admitted it would be hard to leave Sydney, he was comfortable with the fact he had achieved the goals he set.

"I have spoken at length about my desire to give myself every chance to make the World Cup squad and I am doing that,” Colosimo said.

“The players and coaching staff at Sydney FC have been amazing to me. We are a very close bunch and although the A-League season is now over, leaving them was extremely difficult.

“I have given everything I have for Sydney FC this season. What a year it has been. I have been injury free, we won the domestic double and I am in the Socceroos squad.

"I'm leaving on a very, very big high. I've achieved what I wanted to at Sydney FC and now it's the next chapter of my career.

“So far everything's ticked off. Minor premiership, playing every game injury-free, now a grand final. Now I've got that next dream of a World Cup."

Our blogger interview this week chose the words “World’s Toughest Movie Critic” as his personal tagline.
He’s a film major graduate of the University of Kansas.
He’s fiercely proud of the Mid-Western culture and community he belongs to.
For the past few years he’s been volunteering as a Programmer for the Tallgrass Film Festival.
It is with great pleasure that I introduce you to Vaughn Fry, the video blogging film critic responsible for the excellent Vaughn On Movies blog.
Read more: http://blog.headup.com/2010/03/the-softer-side-of-the-worlds-toughest-movie-critic/#ixzz0ioj7Mb75

On Friday, CR readers were asked to "Name Five Webcomics You Read That 1) Aren't Any Of The Five I Chose, 2) Posted First On-Line -- Not After Or Concurrently With Print, 3) Are Ongoing (Updating At Least Once This Year)." This is how they responded. Tom Spurgeon 1. Hark! A Vagrant 2. PvP 3. Achewood 4. Sin Titulo 5. Freakangels ***** Brian Moore 1. Endtown, Aaron Neathery 2. Goats, Jon Rosenberg 3. Bad Machinery, John Allison 4. Spain & Morocco, Alex Fellows 5. The Non-Adventures of Wonderella, Justin Pierce ***** Samuel Mooney 1.) remind 2.) Tune 3.) The Bean 4.) Iron 5.) a漫画アディクト ***** Wesley Osam 1. Bad Machinery 2. Dresden Codak 3. Nedroid Picture Diary 4. Pictures for Sad Children 5. Cat and Girl ***** Tom Bondurant 1. The Non-Adventures Of Wonderella 2. Let's Be Friends Again 3. Max Vs. Max 4. Bug 5. Strewth ***** Dave Knott * XKCD * PhD: Piled Higher & Deeper * Penny Arcade * Girl Genius * Diesel Sweeties ***** Jamie Coville 1) Sinfest 2) Diesel Sweeties 3) Dinosaur Comics 4) xkcd 5) The Abominable Charles Christopher ***** Kurt Busiek * Menage a 3 * The Abominable Charles Christopher * Deadbeats * Ellie Connelly * Mugwhump the Great And a special note for Bearskinrug, which isn't remotely conventional but is chock full o' great. ***** Dennis Culver * Haunted * Sinfest * Diesel Sweeties * Let's Be Friends Again * Awesome Hospital ***** Johnny Bacardi 1. Octopus Pie 2. Scary-Go-Round presents Bad Machinery 3. Brat-Halla 4. The Non-Adventures of Wonderella 5. Lackadaisy Cats ***** Michael Carens-Nedelsky 1. A Softer World 2. Piled Higher and Deeper 3. Wondermark 4. XKCD 5. Lackadaisy ***** William Doughty 1. Daisy Owl 2. Questionable Content 3. Shortpacked! 4. Girls With Slingshots 5. Oceanverse ***** Uriel A. Duran 1) Savage Chickens 2) John & John 3) 1930 Nightmare Theatre @ Dumm Comics 4) College Roomies From Hell!!! 5) Kawaii Not ***** Tony Collett 1. SubCulture 2. The Non-Adventures Of Wonderella 3. Sheldon 4. Girls With Slingshots 5. 1977 The Comic ***** John Platt 1. Supernatural Law 2. Steve Bissette's King of Monster Isle 3. American Elf 4. Dark Horse MySpace Presents 5. Year of the Rat ***** Jamie Cosley 1. Heropotamus 2. Pokeweed 3. Pajama Forest! 4. Toddbot.com5. 5. Whubble ***** Jamie S. Rich 1. Ellerbisms, Marc Ellerby 2. Between Gears, Natalie Nourigat 3. EmiTown, Emi Lenox 4. Briar Hollow, Terry Blas 5. My Cardboard Life, Philippa Rice ***** Greg McElhatton * Girl Genius * Johnny Wander * Liz Prince Power * She Said * Socks and Barney ***** Buzz Dixon 1. Sinfest 2. Tune 3. Bear Nuts 4. Wapsi Square 5. Penny and Aggie ***** *****

The animal-loving British are refusing to support a ban on ivory sales

I'll try to keep this as un-gory as possible for animal-loving readers. Perhaps you are reading this while patting your dog, stroking your cat, or changing the straw for your child's hamster. I really wouldn't want to spoil such beautiful quintessentially British moments. We all know that Britain prides itself on being a "nation of animal lovers".

However, facts are facts, and tomorrow in Doha, Qatar, at the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (Cites), a proposal from Kenya for a 20-year ban on ivory sales is likely to fail because key members of the EU are refusing to support it. One of them is Britain.

Britain is going with the Cites stance that "one-off sales of stockpiled ivory" help fund conservation, and reduce poaching by satisfying demand. Which completely ignores the new report from a 27-strong team of conservationists and scientists saying that one-off sales have not delivered on conservation, have increased the demand for ivory in far eastern countries such as Japan and China, and therefore encourage poaching.

Tearing oneself away from the blizzard of "unsubstantiated allegations, blah blah" of rampant horse-fixing and vote-gathering at Cites, one also reads that our own Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) is pondering whether to support a move for even less protection for Tanzanian and Zambian elephants. This decision will take them, ooh, at least six years. All this is going on in your name. Still feeling those "nation of animal-lovers" warm fuzzies?

Strange how quickly this "animal-lovers" malarkey flies out of the window when big money or politics comes into it. A case of, everyone loves elephants, but when it gets a bit sticky with international sanctions and world trade, or means getting on the wrong side of highly lucrative expanding far eastern markets, it's: "So long, Dumbo!" In fairness, at Cites, Britain did back other conservation proposals (ie a failed one for bluefin tuna), but did they seriously believe that this stance on ivory sales would have our full public support?

Probably not, but maybe they are banking on the bizarre loophole in British attitudes to animals. Our quasi-schizophrenic habit of cherry-picking when to care, and when not to give much of a stuff. After all, we are the nation who sobbed our hearts out at Rolf Harris's sick puppies on Animal Hospital, even as, year on year, RSPCA figures for animal cruelty were rising. Who occasionally get angry about factory farming, but much angrier when chickens don't cost one old farthing in the supermarket. And now whose government refuses to oppose ivory sales, even though it is bizarre that ivory could still be judged a "material" – would you put an ornament made of dogs' teeth on your mantelpiece?

The government letting this opportunity pass by is a scandal, but surely the blame spreads far wider to public apathy. Maybe it is time to take a stand. Are we going to carry on being less a nation of animal lovers than a giant cultural "petting zoo"? As in, sure, we love animals, but everything's got to be all fluffy and easy and nice, and occasionally we'll get out the Animal Hospital DVDs and weep with Rolf over sick gerbils.

Or are we going to be the kind who react with outrage and action when our views are not represented in arenas such as Cites, who are prepared to make trouble, sign petitions, pester EU reps? Who refuse to support legislation which experts believe encourages the poaching of fast-dwindling numbers of elephants – where, incidentally, the common practice is to exploit the elephants' strong family bonds, shooting the babies first, in order to lure in the adults. Maybe it is time for British people to start living up to our billing – if we really are this "nation of animal lovers", why aren't they hearing us roar?

Rachel, try being softer and a little more Lady-like

One must give Rachel Johnson the benefit of the doubt and presume there was an element of mischievous editing in Channel 4's The Lady and the Revamp, which followed her taking over the editorship of ailing magazine The Lady.

Certainly Johnson had her work cut out at The Lady, and she wasn't going to get anywhere, pottering about, being a "nice gel". Her basic ideas (sort out staff, modernise the title) were sound troubleshooting. However, there was something a bit callous and flippant about the way Johnson dealt with staff cuts, quipping about "death lists" and "prising fingers off". These were people's jobs – in many cases, their last ones, the majority of her employees seeming to come under the heading, "Distressed gentlefolk of Chelsea".

While no one wanted Johnson to be constantly turbo-emoting ("Because she's a woman"), her glib manner was unsettling. And telling. Johnson came across as someone who'd never lost a job, and even if she had, was in the privileged position of viewing employment as primarily providing "challenges", rather than essential money to live. I think if you sack people, you should afford them the dignity of taking it seriously, just as they have to.

Who will play Sahil in Bollywood?

Very much enjoying the outcome of the Sahil Saeed kidnapping. It could have gone horribly wrong; miraculously it didn't, and it's a great story: Dad racing to the rescue, relatives pitching in with money, secret surveillance operations, cash handovers, arrests, and then five-year-old Sahil back home in Oldham, in his mother's arms, his uncle handing around celebratory bowls of sweets to well-wishers. Aw. One can almost hear the rattle of keyboards as the heart-warming Hollywood film writes itself.

It might even feature some actual Indian people, which is more than could be said for Bollywood, currently under fire from activist political group MNS, for using too many white westerners. Ranging from celebrities such as Kylie Minogue, Sylvester Stallone, and, erm, Chris Patten's daughter, Alice, to "attractive backpackers" who are prepared to prance around in skimpy costumes, unlike many Indian girls. Meanwhile, local acting talent is missing out.

The complaint is that eastern films don't look so eastern anymore. Indeed, while it is rumoured that MNS are cynically lunging for the female vote, there is a valid point. Shouldn't westerners know their place with Indian cinema? That place being sat on the cinema seats, not starring in the films. With India awash with homegrown talent, is there a genuine need for "Bolly-Kylie"?

It also bodes ill for the Bollywood take on the Sahil story. What should be a wonderful opportunity for Indian actors could end up as an over-westernised nightmare, or should that be "white-mare"? Sahil played by Zac Efron trying to portray "five years old" with his knees in shoes, his mother by Anne ("What's an Oldham?") Hathaway, a sari'd Judi Dench as an anguished grandmother. Sorry, but it would take a really big bowl of sweets to put that right.

Filed under: Band of the Week

Four years ago, a young man of 22 emerged from the estates of east London with an album in 'Who Needs Actions When You Got Words,' that was as genre-crossing as it was foul-mouthed. Plan B, aka Ben Drew, had made what was predominantly a rap album in debt to his hero, Eminem, yet he also included curious passages of finger-picked acoustic guitar that if not quite John Fahey, was at least a subtle acknowledgment of a world beyond the London hip-hop and grime he found himself immersed in. The title of his debut album was taken from a song by the Meat Puppets, further proving an awareness of ostensibly remote musical styles.

It should come as no surprise then, that Plan B's new album, 'The Defamation of Strickland Banks,' is an excursion into yet another realm. 'Strickland Banks' is essentially a soul album, with Drew's newly-discovered singing voice placed centre-stage. The quickfire rapping is still there in parts, but overall this is a profoundly softer effort, and a comparison can be made between Drew's transformation from abrasive enfant terrible to crooner and the similar path trodden by one of 2009's breakout heroes, Mayer Hawthorne, another to make the effortless change between hip-hop and soul.

But for Plan B, the transition was far from a step into the unknown. It was this music that was his first love, even before hip-hop took hold of him.

There surely exist propositions by the skeptics - and opinions liked by many skeptics - that I find dumb. I don't know whether they're equally frequent as the alarmists' delusions but they certainly do exist. A whole article of this sort was written by Tom Siegfried in Science News,

Odds Are, It's Wrong.

The article whose subtitle is "Science fails to face the shortcomings of statistics" - it sounds serious, doesn't it? - was promoted at Anthony Watts' blog. The most characteristic quote in the article is the following:

It’s science’s dirtiest secret: The “scientific method” of testing hypotheses by statistical analysis stands on a flimsy foundation.

So I gather that the idea is that one should throw away all statistical methods which are a "mutant form of math". Holy cow.

There surely exist whole scientific disciplines that are trying to find tiny, homeopathic signals that can be hugely overinterpreted and hyped because the researchers are usually rewarded for such statements, regardless of their validity (or at least, they don't pay any significant price if the claims turn out to be wrong). The science of health impacts of XY is the classic example - and environmental and climate sciences may have become another.

People in those disciplines are usually led by their environment to be "finding" effects even if they don't really exist. The average ethical and intellectual qualities of the people who work in these disciplines are poor. But it's just preposterous to imagine that the right cure could be to throw away or ban all statistical methods.

Statistical methods are crucial and omnipresent

In fact, statistical methods have always been essential in any empirically based science. A theory predicts a quantity to be "P" and it is observed to be "O". The idea is that if the theory is right, "O" equals "P". In the real world, neither "O" nor "P" is known infinitely accurately.

Why? Because observations are never accurate, so "O" always has some error, at least if it is a continuous quantity. And "P" is almost always calculated by a formula that depends on other values that had to be previously measured, too. So even the predictions "P" have errors. There are various kinds of errors that contribute and they would deserve a separate lecture.

Moreover, quantum mechanics implies that all observations ever made have some uncertainty and all of them are statistical in character. The most complete possible theories can only predict the probabilities of individual outcomes. Clearly, all observations you can ever make have a statistical nature. In particular, experimental particle physics would be impossible without statistics. If you can't deal with the statistical nature of the empirical evidence, you simply can't do empirical science.

Now, if "O" and "P" are known with some errors, how do you determine whether the theory passes or fails the test? The errors are never "strict": there is always a nonzero probability that a very big error, much bigger than the expected one, is accumulated, so you should never imagine that the intervals "(O - error, O + error)" are "strictly certain". Nothing is certain. If you pick 1,000 random people, the deviation of the number of women from 500 may be around 30 but it is unlikely, but not impossible, that there will be 950 women and 50 men.

The answer to the question that started the previous paragraph is, of course, that if "O" and "P" are (much) further from one another than both errors of "O" as well as "P", the theory is falsified. It's proven wrong. If they're close enough to one another, the theory may pass the test: we failed to disprove it. But as always in science, it doesn't mean that the theory has been proven valid. Theories are never proven valid "permanently". They're only temporarily valid until a better, more accurate, newer, or more complete test finds a discrepancy and falsifies them.

In the distant past, people wanted to learn "approximate", qualitatively correct theories. So the hypotheses that would eventually be ruled out used to be "very wrong". Their predicted "P" was so far from the observations "O" that you could have called the disagreement "qualitative" in character. However, strictly speaking, it was never qualitative. It was just quantitative - and large.

But as our theories of anything in the physical Universe are getting more accurate, it is completely natural that the differences between "O" and "P" of the viable candidate hypotheses is getting smaller, in units of the errors of "O" or "P". In some sense, the new scientific findings at the "cutting edge" or the "frontier" almost always emerge from the "mud" in which "O" and "P" looked compatible. When the accuracy of "O" or "P" increases, we can suddenly see that there's a discrepancy.

We should always ask how big a discrepancy between "O" and "P" is needed for us to claim that we have falsified a theory. This is a delicate problem because there will always be a nonzero probability that the discrepancy has occurred by chance. We don't want to make mistakes. So we want to be e.g. 99.9% sure that if we say that a theory has been falsified, it's really wrong.

The required separation between "O" and "P" can be calculated from the figure above, from 99.9%. If you don't know the magic of statistical distributions, especially the normal one, I won't be teaching you about them in this particular text. But it's true that the probability that the falsification "shouldn't have been done" because the disagreement was just due to chance is decreasing more quickly than exponentially with the separation - as the Gaussian.

So e.g. particle physics typically expects "new theories" to be supported by "5 sigma signals" - in some sense, the distance between "O" and "P" is at least 5 times their error. The probability that this takes place by chance is smaller than one in one million. Particle physicists choose such a big separation - and huge confidence level - because they don't want to flood their discipline with lots of poorly justified speculations. They want to rely upon solid foundations so statistical tests have to be really convincing.

Softer disciplines typically choose less than 5 sigma to be enough: 2 or even 1 sigma is sometimes presented as a signal that matters. Of course, this is because they actually want to produce lots of results even though they may be (and, sometimes, are likely to be) rubbish. But a simple fix is that they should raise the required confidence level for their assertions - e.g. from 2 sigma to 5 sigma. They don't have to immediately throw statistics as a tool away.

A problem is that many of these researchers actually don't want to do it. They don't want their science to work right. They have other interests.

In fact, while the confidence level is dramatically increased if we go from 2 sigma to 5 sigma (something like from 90% to 99.9999%), the required amount of data we need to collect to get the 5-sigma accuracy is just "several times" bigger than for the 2-sigma accuracy. So if there's some effect, it's not such a huge sin to demand that published "discoveries" should be supported by 5-sigma signals. Once again, the soft scientists - who propose various theories of health (what is healthy for you) - are choosing low confidence levels deliberately because they like to present new results even though they're mostly bogus. They still get famous along the way.

If some key statements about AGW are only claimed to be established at the 90% confidence level, it's just an extremely poor evidence (and may be overstated or depend on the methods, anyway). In principle, it shouldn't be hard for the evidence for such a hypothesis, assuming it's true, to be strengthened to 99.9% or more. That's what "hard sciences" deserving the name require, anyway.

The laymen usually misunderstand how little "90%" is as a confidence level - and some traders with fear masterfully abuse this ignorance. 90% vs 10% is not that "qualitatively" far from 50% vs 50% - and one can transform one to the other by a "slight" pressure in the methodology and the formulae. If you want to be scientifically confident about a conclusion, you should really demand 99.9% or more. And it's actually not that hard to obtain such stronger evidence assuming that your hypothesis is actually correct and the "signal" exists.

Falsifying a null hypothesis

I must explain some basic points of the statistical methods. Typically, we want to find out whether a new effect exists. So we have two competing hypotheses: I will call them the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis.

The null hypothesis says that no new effect exists - everything is explained by the old theories that have been temporarily established and any pattern is due to chance. When I say "chance", it's important to realize that one must specify the exact character of the "random generator" that produces these random data, including the deviations, correlations, autocorrelations, persistence, color of the noise etc. There's not just one "chance": there are infinitely many "chances" given by "statistical distributions" and we must be damn accurate about what the null hypothesis actually says. (Often, we mean the "white noise" and "independent random numbers" etc.)

The alternative hypothesis says that a new effect is needed: the old explanations and the null hypothesis is not enough.

How do you decide in between these two? Well, you calculate the probability that the apparently observed "pattern" could have occurred by chance assuming the null hypothesis. If the probability of something like that were sufficiently high, e.g. 1% or 5%, you say that your data don't contain evidence for the alternative hypothesis.

If the calculated probability that the "pattern" in the data could have been explained by chance - and by the null hypothesis - is really tiny, e.g. 10^{-6}, then your data give you a strong evidence that the null hypothesis is wrong. If you say that it's wrong, your risk of having made a wrong conclusion - the so-called "false positive" or "type I error" - is only 10^{-6}. So it's sensible to take this risk. In my example, we falsified the null hypothesis at the 99.9999% level. It's very likely that a new effect has to exist.

You're expected to have an alternative hypothesis that actually describes the data more accurately and gives a higher probability that the data could have occurred according to the alternative hypothesis, with its new understanding of "chance".

However, if the probability of getting the pattern by chance, from the null hypothesis, is substantial, e.g. 10%, then your data only provide you with a very weak hint that a new effect could exist. If you use the standards of hard sciences, you should say that your data can't settle the question in either way.

Of course, it is always possible that if you make such a conclusion, you have made another kind of error, the "type II error", also known as the false negative. But what Tom Siegfried seems to misunderstand is that this is a common situation that you simply can't avoid in most cases. The data, with their limited volume and limited accuracy (and assuming a small size of the new effect), simply can't settle the question in either way.

So when you say that you don't have enough evidence to confirm the "pattern", i.e. that the data don't contain a statistically significant evidence for the alternative hypothesis i.e. the new effect, it is not the ultimate proof that the alternative hypothesis is wrong. It is not the final proof that the new effect can't exist.

It's just evidence that the new effect is small and unimportant enough so that it couldn't have been detected in the particular sample or experiment. You can't make a final decision here. While hypotheses can be kind of "completely killed" in science, they can never be "completely proved". Even though the null hypothesis can be pretty much safely killed, no one can ever guarantee to you that your particular generalization, your alternative hypothesis, is the most correct one. It could have been better than the null hypothesis in passing this particular test but the next one may falsify your alternative hypothesis, too.

There's no straightforward way to construct better hypotheses! Creativity and intuition is needed before your viable attempts are tested against the data.

And quite often, your data simply don't contain enough information to decide. This is not a bug that you should blame on the statistical method. The statistical method is innocent. It is telling you the truth and the truth is that we don't know. The laymen may often be scared by the idea that we don't know something - and they often prefer fake and wrong knowledge over admitting that we don't know - but it's their illness, their inability to live with what the actual science is telling us (or not telling us, in this case), not a bug of the statistical method.

Misinterpretations, errors, lousy scientists

Of course, the picture above assumes that one actually learns how the statistical method works and what it exactly allows us to claim in particular situations. That has nothing to do with the journalists' or laymen's interpretations. The journalists and other laymen usually don't understand statistics well - and sometimes they want to mislead others deliberately.

But again, it would be ludicrous to blame this fact on the statistical method.

Analogously, bad scientists may calculate confidence levels incorrectly. They may choose unrealistic null and/or alternative hypotheses. And they may misinterpret what their test has really demonstrated and what it hasn't. They may hold completely unrealistic beliefs about the odds that a "generic" hypothesis would pass a similar test so they can't place their calculation in any proper context. Quite typically, such people only blindly follow some statistical recipes that they don't quite understand. So it's not shocking that they can end up with mistakes.

This fact is not specific to statistics. People who are lousy scientists often make errors in non-statistical scientific methodologies, too. That's not a reason to abandon science, is it?

The proper statistical method gives us the best tool to study the incomplete or inaccurate empirical information - and in the real world, every empirical information is incomplete or inaccurate, at least to some extent. And one can actually prove that the probability of a "false positive" is as small as the p-value. Well, the p-value is not quite the same thing as the probability of a "false positive" but it's pretty close.

But "false negatives" can never be reliably cured. Whenever your experiment is not accurate enough, it will simply say "no pattern seen" even though a better experiment could see it.

The solution to fight against the widespread errors is to require the soft disciplines to become harder - to calculate the confidence levels properly and to require higher confidence levels than those that have been enough for a "discovery" in the recent decades. This recommendation follows from common sense. If your field has been flooded by lots of beliefs in correlations and mechanisms that often turned out to be incorrect or non-existent, it's clear that you should make your standards more stringent.

Scientists, journalists, and laymen should do their best to be accurate and to learn what various tests actually imply.

But it will still be true that no science can be done "quite" without any statistical reasoning. And it's still true that the datasets and experiments will continue to be unable to give the "final answer" to many questions we would like to be answered. These are just facts. You may dislike them but that's the only thing you can do against facts.

So I would urge everyone to try to avoid bombshell statements such as "statistics is a dirty core of science that doesn't work and has to be abandoned". Lousy work of some people can't ever justify such far-reaching claims.

After all, much of the lousy work - and lousy presentation in the media - emerges because the people want to claim that the relevant research is "less statistical" in character than it actually is. In most cases, weak statistical signals are being promoted to a kind of "near certainty". So the right solution is for everyone to be more appreciative of the statistical method, not less so!

And that's the memo.

The program book has gone to print, the Miss Piggy costume has arrived, and the registration numbers keep rising. We're only 20 days away from the 2010 Nonprofit Technology Conference -- but who's counting?

Just like in past years, we'll be kicking off the 10NTC with the Science Fair. This opening reception provides an opportunity to network with nptech professionals while checking out the over 100 exhibitors showing off their latest and greatest offerings to the nonprofit sector.

Oh, and did we mention there will be prizes? Lots of prizes. We'll be raffling off an Apple iPad, solar cell phone chargers, a t-shirt that lights up when it detects a wi-fi signal (how convenient!) and a gaggle of books by nptech superstars. Just pick up one raffle ticket at each booth you visit -- the more raffle tickets you collect the more chances you'll have to win.

The Science Fair doors will open at 3 pm on April 8, 2010 at the OMNI Hotel in Atlanta.

Check out more awesome giveaways and highlights from a sampling of our exhibitors below. Oh, and just in case you want to plan your prize route, here's a map.

501 Technology, LLC in booth 80

Visit the 501 Technology booth and enter to win an app from our MoblityCMS platform for your non-profit organization. Download the NTC app developed by 501 Technology to make the most of your NTC 2010 experience. Increase your mission-focus with 501 Technology. Strengthen the bottom line of your nonprofit by providing world-class online solutions.

American Registry for Internet Numbers (ARIN) in booth 39

We will be raffling off an iPod Touch at the booth. Any attendee can fill out the form provided at the booth for a chance to enter.

Aqubanc in booth 58

Aqubanc will give away two replica models courtesy of Diecasm (www.diecasm.com).

Azavea (formerly Avencia) in booth 54

Stop by booth #54: Azavea (formerly Avencia). We're a GIS software development firm, and we'd love to share with you how you can use the power of geographic information systems -- beyond just displaying dots on a map. It doesn't have to be difficult or even expensive; it can even be free. Want to know how non-profit organizations are using geographic analysis and the power of maps to support their missions, report to stakeholders and funders, apply for grants more effectively, or conduct fundraising and marketing gap analyzes? Interested in knowing how to prioritize resources, analyze a donor database, create mobile applications or visualize community indicators? We can help you with that ... and if you want to talk about how to display stuff on maps and create effective Google Map mashups, we can do that too!

Better The World in booth 46

Visit Better The World at booth 46 to take a quiz for your chance to win an Apple iPad (that’s right – an iPad!).

Bicknell Information Group in booth 75

Stop by Booth #75 to visit Little Green Light (online donor management) and drop your business card off to get a chance to win a Flip HD video camera. We'll pick the winner after the Science Fair, and be in touch on Friday, 4/9.

Call 2 Action in booth 88

Call2Action's Spark™ combines video with action tools in one shareable widget. Stop by Booth 88 at the Science Fair and film your own video for your limited edition NTEN Spark™ to syndicate your Tweets, share on Facebook with friends, and create your own Pledge. Learn more at www.call2action.com BONUS: If your NTEN Spark garners the most views, we will give away a fully functional spark to the charity of your choice.

Care2, Inc. in booth 22

Care2 will be giving away a brand spanking new Apple iPad at their Science Fair booth!

Anyone who stops by will be entered in the drawing to win this magical and revolutionary device!

Causemunity in booth 70

Causemunity.org provides easy solution to your fund-raising needs through micro-donations. It's completely free to your organization, and to your members as well! Please stop by Booth 70 for details. And if you sign up your organization with Causemunity, you'll have chance to win a brand new Wii game console!

ClientTrack in booth 53

When NTC2010 is over, will you have enough space in your luggage for a new Sonicare toothbrush, a shiny web cam, a nice digital camera, or maybe even a new NetBook computer? Stop by the ClientTrack booth, and you could win any one of these items. (Without divulging too much, all I am permitted to say about how you can win is this: “Remember, your llave is the clave; no llave, no clave.”). So, when you’re getting ready for NTC2010, you may want to leave a little bit of wiggle room in your suitcase…just in case you have to pack it home with a little something extra from ClientTrack.

Convio in booths 107 & 108

Convio will be giving away an Apple iPad and also coffee in our booth during the Science Fair. For the duration of the conference, attendees can swing by the Convio booth for a coffee anytime as well.

Democracy In Action in booth 11

Democracyinaction will be giving out Salsa tattoos at our booth

DonorPerfect/Softerware, Inc. in booth 38

Stop by DonorPerfect's booth #38 for information on our fundraising software, rated Top Ten in N-TEN/Idealware's "A Consumer's Guide to Low Cost Donor Management Software". Get answers to your questions, brochures and demos, and some free giveaways!

Event 360 in booths 109 & 110

Event 360 helps nonprofits use the art and science of event fundraising to build and deliver powerful experiences that drive giving, loyalty and awareness. Stop by the Event 360 booth to meet our team, learn about our online toolkit and enter to win an iPod Touch! Our Event 360 architects will be on hand throughout the conference and are looking forward to discussing your event fundraising plans with you

Exponent Partners in booth 5

Exponent Partners provides Salesforce.com services and solutions for high performing nonprofits. Please come by our booth to learn more about how we help nonprofit organizations become more efficient and effective by using technology to streamline and enhance their business operations. Booth Give Away: Win one day of Salesforce.com consulting! Visit booth #5 at the Science Fair to enter the draw.

Greater Good Network in booth 50

Looking to build your e-mail list? Receive up to 1,000 contacts free from a petition posted at GreaterGood Network's Take Action Center: a great way to connect with people supporting your cause. Stop by the booth to learn more about this risk-free offer.

IdeaEncore Network in booth 74

On your hard drive, right now, you have a program plan, a policy, a template, a resource guide or tool that one of your colleagues is looking for. At the IdeaEncore Network (http://budurl.com/NTN03Z ) (booth (#72), you can learn how to share it – and in the process magnify your mission impact while, potentially, creating earned income for your organization.. Stop by the booth to enter a drawing to win a $50 credit toward resources from IdeaEncore Network (http://budurl.com/NTN03Z), a nonprofit knowledge sharing marketplace.

Idealist Consulting in booth 6

Stop by our booth for a candy bar and a chance to win an iPod Shuffle or an iTunes gift card.

Learn about our NPOrganizer Starter Pack includes Web Site Development and CRM all for $2000

IdealWare in booth 63

Idealware will be raffling off 3 copies of our recently published Field Guide to Software for Nonprofits: Fundraising, Communications & Outreach. Anyone who signs up for our eNews letter at our Science Fair booth will be eligible to win!

iWave Information Systems Inc. in booth 77

We will be giving away a free 1 Month Subscription (up to 3 user licences) to our service Prospect Research Online (Valued at $325). Must come by our booth to receive a ballot.

Jigsaw Meeting in booth 84

Jigsaw Meeting emulates face to face meetings that encourage participation by allowing attendees to interact with you and your meeting data. With multiple interactive and accountability features we make passive listeners active participants for solid meeting results. Come see us and experience it for yourself. We will be giving away a selection of gift cards worth $100 to some of your favorite retailers.

MemberHub.com in booth 62

Would you like to enhance communication in your small-medium size nonprofit? Then stop by the MemberHub booth and learn more about their service. MemberHub.com offers communication tools like mailing lists, group calendars and text messaging to empower nonprofit staff and group leaders to get organized in private online hubs. Matt and Loren are really looking forward to speaking with you.

Microsoft in booths 105 & 106

Come play with some cool new tech tools at the Microsoft booth (free drink tickets)! Demo Windows 7 on Multipoint Server 2010, a new Windows product that allows multiple users to simultaneously share one computer. Enter to win a Netbook loaded with Windows 7!

MWare Inc. in booth 25

MWare will be showing a live demo of the latest version of Event Control, our online fundraising and event management software.

Network for Good in booth 47

At the Network for Good booth, in addition to goodies like online fundraising resources and coffee mugs we’re going to be giving away a number of copies of our last eBook created in conjunction with Sea Change Strategies (made possible by a grant from Event 360): Homer Simpson for Nonprofits: The Truth about How People Really Think and What It Means for Promoting Your Cause (A Guide to Behavioral Economics for Nonprofit Leaders). Katya Andresen, Alia McKee Scott and Mark Rovner will be presenting a session during NTC based on this book, so attendees will definitely want to get their hands on a copy!

O-matic Software in booth 76

We are offering a FREE Lite version of RecordRadar, a zip code segmentation tool for the Raiser’s Edge, and offering a FREE version of MagicFolder, a document storage and management tool for the Raiser’s Edge. These are available for anyone at our booth. In addition, we will be hosting a raffle for a $100 gift card and a free year subscription for the Premium version of RecordRadar, a zip code segmentation tool for the Raiser’s Edge. Two different winners will be picked!

Opportunity Knocks in booth 42

Opportunity Knocks will give away via a fishbowl raffle goody bag including OK promotional items of an umbrella, magic 8 ball and tote, leading nonprofit books from publishing partner Jossey Bass Wiley and 30 day Job postings for nonprofits to find superstar employees looking for Jobs that Change the World.

Partners for Change in booth 55

Raffling off an iPod at the Science Fair

PICnet in booth 86

The penguins will return to the NTC, and they'll be coming with the crew from PICnet to Atlanta for their 5th NTC showing! If you're interested in learning more about how to get a penguin this year, go to www.picnet.net.

Qgiv, Inc in booth 13

Qgiv’s booth will feature the following: Survey- Take a survey and claim your $200 gift card for use towards Qgiv or Elevate services by yours or any other organization. Qgiv General- Information on how Qgiv can help your organization accept online one-time/recurring donations and event registrations. Feature Set- Instant online examples of Qgiv’s functionality iPhone App Demo- Examples of how supporters of your organization can become mobile fundraisers through mobile phone applications.

Sage in booth 18

Swing by Sage's booth at the NTC 2010 Science Fair to enter for a chance to win a new Flip UltraHD camcorder. Learn about our fundraising and accounting solutions, available hosted services, and online donation tools for nonprofits of all sizes and enter the drawing for your chance to win!

Spinx, Inc. in booth 82

Spinx will give away one Apple iPad to the winner of a lucky draw among the Spinx Booth Visitors.

Spread Light, Inc. in booth 65

Our booth will be Interactive and visitors will be able to create dedication pages, light virtual candles, and make donations to the nonprofit of their choice.

is7 and 2DIALOG. in booth 32

Please stop by booth #32 (is7 & 2DIALOG) to become a YouTube video star and to enter our drawing to win a crazy cool Flip Video Camcorder of your own! While you're there, let us show you some of our online creative samples and our revolutionary eCommunications Suite that have both increased our nonprofit clients' income by optimizing their online donations! And before, during, and after the conference follow us on twitter @is7interactive #. See you in Atlanta!

StreamLink Software in booth 21

We will be giving away a 20” monitor valued at $150.00

thedatabank in booth 36

thedatabank is giving away a free Social Network Append data service ($150 value) to all organizations who sign up for and attend one of our online software demos.

ThePort Network in booths 103 & 104

ThePort will be raffling off an Apple Ipad

VisionLink, Inc. in booth 64

VisionLink brings particular expertise to the sectors of 2-1-1, information & referral, disaster relief, elder care, education and workforce development, homeless management, and volunteer and donation coordination. Importantly, our flexible technology lets you build the web sites, pages, forms, tabs and fields you need--all without any programming skills.

Winwin Apps in booth 37

Are you a 501c3 who will be visiting us at NTEN? You could win a thousand bucks for your non-profit. It’s easy – just stop by booth #37 during the tradeshow to register with us. Then use winwin apps to send an email out to your supporters requesting a $1 donation. (Be persuasive – you’ll get to keep whatever funds they donate.) At the end of the conference, the organization that has received the most donations through a winwin email will receive an additional $1,000. Not bad, eh? You can input your contact list from Gmail or Outlook and send a custom email, and you get to keep what you collect, so there are no strings attached. In other words, it’s a win-win. Which is just the way we like it.

Zuri Group in booth 2

Have you been wanting to develop a Facebook strategy? Stop at booth 2 and register to win a free Zuri Group Facebook strategy and badge design--a $3,000 value. While you're there talk with Zuri's Rich Levy about how clients like Dana Farber are using Facebook to grow their lists, increase support, and raise money.

 

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If only Sony had waited until after the South by Southwest festival to release Heavy Rain, the publisher could have printed several glowing quotes from a known Xbox consorter on the back of the PS3-exclusive's game box. Oh, well -- there's always the "Game of the Year" edition.

During a a one-on-one conversation with writer Frank Rose at SXSW this week, Fabled designer Peter Molyneux heaped praise on Heavy Rain, calling it "absolutely brilliant."

"I recommend anyone who wants to start to see the first glimpses of the future of video games to go out and buy it," Molyneux advocated, before exposing his softer side to the audience. "But, personally, I could not bring myself to play more than 90 minutes, because the world that was there was so dark and so emotionally involving I felt emotionally beaten up." Aww, Mr. Molyneux ...

"But there's no question in my mind that games like Heavy Rain -- games that have a new fidelity in the way that they present their experiences; obviously made with cinematography and motion capture in mind -- can really show the way forward to a new form of entertainment, which is evolving the story and choices and consequences." Molyneux steadfastly declared, having apparently recovered from the painful memories of the game's early moments (perhaps cries of Jason? Jason? Jason! still faintly echoing in his head).

Molyneux also commended developer Quantic Dream's design choices, observing that the QTE interface "really meant that you had to pay attention all the time because you didn't know whether these quick-time events were going to come up"; though he noted that such gameplay mechanics "may be a little bit tired after a while." Still, he said, "I have to take my hat off to [Quantic Dream] ... There's a couple of things they do in that game which were really revolutionary, and what they do with quick-time is fantastic."

"Us designers were just laughing because we thought quick-time was dead, but that really was part of the drama of Heavy Rain."

Molyneux says Heavy Rain offers the 'first glimpses of the future' of games originally appeared on Joystiq on Tue, 16 Mar 2010 19:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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