Reuters

Possible GOP Candidate for Senate Will Skip Race New York Times So far, three Republicans have said they will run: Bruce A. Blakeman, who dropped out of the New York mayoral race last year; David Malpass, ... Adios, Senormsnbc.com Senor opts out of race to challenge GillibrandNBC 29 News all 189 news articles »

Health care, and rightfully so, has knocked all dispatches from the campaign trail off of the front pages from coast-to-coast. That doesn't mean, however, that there hasn't been some headlines worth perusing over the last two days, as well as some data to munch on.

THE U.S. SENATE

NY-Sen: New York GOP Recruiting Failure #192
The Republican Party in the Empire State is smarting yet again, as another fairly prominent GOP prospect fell by the wayside today in the person of former Bush administration spokesman Dan Senor. According to reports over the past couple of weeks, Senor had seemed almost certain to launch into a challenge to appointed incumbent Kirsten Gillibrand. This leaves former Port Authority Commissioner Bruce Blakeman, former Congressman Joe DioGuardi, and former Wall Street exec David Malpass as the leaders of the GOP pack.

OH-Sen: Democrats in A Toss Up To Pick Up Voinovich Seat
A new PPP poll (PDF file) out this week suggests that the Democrats have a fighting chance of a pick-up in Ohio, where GOP incumbent George Voinovich is retiring. His potential GOP successor, former Congressman and Bush official Rob Portman, is in a dead heat with Democratic Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (38-37), and holds only a slight lead over Lt. Governor Lee Fisher (41-36). The potential for game changers in this race is still awfully high--less than half of the voters polled have a firm opinion about ANY of the main candidates in the field.

PA-Sen: F&M Poll Finds A Fluid Electorate in Keystone State
In the pantheon of political pollsters, few in the game do a better job of keeping voters on the fence better than Pennsylvania specialists Franklin and Marshall, whose undecideds are so high you almost have to wonder if their questions aren't open ended. For what it is worth, F&M polls the Senate race, and finds over half of the voters undecided in the huge upcoming Democratic primary (Senator Arlen Specter leads Joe Sestak 32-12 among those who have made up their minds). In the general, it is only slightly more decisive, as Republican Pat Toomey leads Specter 33-29, while leading Sestak 27-19.

WI-Sen: PPP Poll Shows Senate Race No Gimme For Thompson
The GOP has, for months, been working hard to recruit former Governor Tommy Thompson into the Senate race, with the most recent example being a Thompson-allied GOP interest group dutifully polling the race and showing that Thompson leads incumbent Democratic Senator Russ Feingold. PPP has now added their voice to the polling puzzle in the state of Wisconsin, and they come to a slightly different conclusion (PDF file). They have Feingold narrowly leading Thompson (47-44). Most polls, even those showing a Thompson lead, have shown tight margins such as this. As with other pollsters, PPP has Feingold up handily on the actually declared GOP candidates: Terrence Wall (48-34) and Dave Westlake (48-31).

THE U.S. HOUSE

SD-AL: Did Herseth-Sandlin's HCR Vote Buy Her A Primary?
A day or two after former Obama staffer Steve Hildebrand decided to forgo a primary challenge to Democratic health care reform opponent Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin, it looks like another Democrat is planning to make a go of it. Physician Kevin Weiland is the potential Democratic candidate, and there is apparently a petition signing frenzy afoot.

VT-AL: New GOP Candidate Already Making Headlines...Bad Ones
During the Monday edition of the Wrap, readers were introduced to Keith Stern, who declared as a Republican challenger to sophomore Democratic Rep. Peter Welch in Vermont. Stern's previous foray into electoral politics was notching 0.3% of the vote as an Indie candidate in 2006. Well, Stern may or may not know his own strength/weakness, apparently. Suffice it to say, this is not how you want to launch your candidacy. In an AP report marking his entrance into the race, Stern seems to intimate that he would be willing to stand down if someone more electable made the race. Stern immediately took to his own campaign website, to point out, and this is a direct quote, that "this is in no way what I said. The AP news miss quoted me."

Miss quoted??

THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES

AZ-Gov: Is Bombastic GOP Sheriff Re-Thinking Statewide Bid?
While Rasmussen polls the myriad of players in the Arizona Governor's race (see the Ras-a-Palooza section below), there might be another player about to enter the fray: controversial Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio. CQ speculates openly about a potential Republican gubernatorial bid for the seventy-something Arpaio, who is sitting on more than $2 million in his campaign warchest.

MD-Gov: Ehrlich To Make Rematch Official Next Month
Granted, there might have only been about seven people left in the state of Maryland who didn't see this coming: former GOP Governor Bob Ehrlich will apparently will get off the dime next month and announce his bid for Governor. It sets up a rematch of the contest in 2006 that sent Ehrlich into early retirement. In that matchup, Democrat Martin O'Malley defeated Ehrlich by seven points. Recent polls have been in roughly the same range.

OH-Gov: PPP Bearish on the Incumbent in Buckeye State Battle
Democrats eager to hang onto the governorship of Ohio took heart a few weeks back when a Quinnipiac poll in the state seemed to show some modicum of recovery for embattled Democratic incumbent Ted Strickland. PPP throws some cold water on that, with a new poll showing former GOP Congressman John Kasich leading Strickland by five percentage points (42-37). Kasich is still relatively unknown, with only about half of the electorate registering an opinion. This could be good for the GOP (he has room to grow), or very bad for the GOP (there is still room for Strickland to define him).

PA-Gov: Undecided Big Winner In Primaries (So Says F&M)
If you thought the Senate numbers from the new Franklin and Marshall poll were a bit indecisive, check out these gubernatorial primary numbers. On the GOP side, nearly 70% of voters are allegedly undecided (state AG Tom Corbett leads state legislator Sam Rohrer 28-4 among those off of the fence). On the Democratic side, undecided is lapping the field, as well. 73% of voters are undecided there, according to F&M. If it matters, Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato leads with 11% of the vote.

WI-Gov: GOP Has Narrow Edge, According to PPP
The same PPP poll that gave Democrat Russ Feingold a slight edge in his re-election bid also gave the pair of potential GOP candidates a slight edge over likely Democratic nominee Tom Barrett. In a bit of a surprise, PPP is the first poll (PDF file) to show former Congressman Mark Neumann (43-38) doing slightly better than Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker (42-39) against the Democrat.

THE RAS-A-PALOOZA

Let me throw down a little gauntlet here, based on the freshest pile of Ras data. I will make a $100 contribution to the (non-political) charity of Scott Rasmussen's choice if John Hostettler either meets or exceeds the pointspread laid down by the RR team in this latest poll. In other news, Rasmussen shovels a little more dirt on Florida Governor Charlie Crist, and finds startlingly positive results for the GOP (I know, I know...) in Arizona, Iowa North Carolina, and Vermont.

If you really have a hankering for more Ras in your life, you can always click here.

AZ-Gov: Buz Mills (R) 43%, Terry Goddard (D) 37%
AZ-Gov: Dean Martin (R) 43%, Terry Goddard (D) 38%
AZ-Gov: Terry Goddard (D) 42%, John Munger (R) 36%
AZ-Gov: Terry Goddard (D) 45%, Gov. Jan Brewer (R) 36%
FL-Sen: Marco Rubio (R) 48%, Kendrick Meek (D) 34%
FL-Sen: Gov. Charlie Crist (R) 45%, Kendrick Meek (D) 34%
FL-Sen (R): Marco Rubio 56%, Gov. Charlie Crist 34%
IN-Sen: John Hostettler (R) 50%, Brad Ellsworth (D) 32%
IN-Sen: Dan Coats (R) 49%, Brad Ellsworth (D) 34%
IN-Sen: Marlin Stutzman (R) 41%, Brad Ellsworth (D) 34%
IA-Gov: Terry Branstad (R) 52%, Gov. Chet Culver (D) 36%
IA-Gov: Bob VanderPlatts (R) 42%, Gov. Chet Culver (D) 40%
NC-Sen: Sen. Richard Burr (R) 51%, Elaine Marshall (D) 35%
NC-Sen: Sen. Richard Burr (R) 51%, Cal Cunningham (D) 32%
VT-Gov: Brian Dubie (R) 46%, Deb Markowitz (D) 39%
VT-Gov: Brian Dubie (R) 48%, Doug Racine (D) 35%
VT-Gov: Brian Dubie (R) 48%, Susan Bartlett (D) 35%
VT-Gov: Brian Dubie (R) 51%, Peter Shumlin (D) 33%
VT-Gov: Brian Dubie (R) 51%, Matt Dunne (D) 29%

Apologies for the lack of a weekend edition. Unfortunately, your intrepid Wrap author got waylaid by a track meet that ran two-plus hours behind schedule, and dead batteries on both the mobile phone and the laptop. It was the perfect storm of suck, I can assure you.

Fortunately, it allows for a heaping helping of political entertainment on this, the Monday edition of the Wrap, with a shiny new feature. At the behest of many, I have elected to place the Ras-a-Palooza in their own little pen at the close of the Wrap. After all, there's only so many ways to say "The GOP looks amazingly good in this new Rasmussen poll"...

THE U.S. SENATE

NV-Sen: Tea Party Candidacy Challenged In Court
When Tea Party candidate Jon Ashjian launched into the Nevada Senate race, several Republicans (including one candidate--Dany Tarkanian) bitterly noted that they thought he was a plant, presumably part of a nefarious Democratic plot. Alas, it is Ashjian's recent status as a Republican that might wind up unraveling his Senate candidacy. Another candidate in the field, Tim Fasano of the right-wing IAP, filed the challenge in Carson City earlier today. His argument is that when Ashjian filed as a member of the Tea Party, he was still a registered Republican. Interestingly, Jon Ralston is noting that an affiliate of the National Tea Party movement, Debbie Landis, may join Fasano's complaint.

NY-Sen: Only Pataki Can Save GOP Against Gillibrand
Siena College is out with their latest poll of the Empire State (they poll here on around a monthly basis). They continue to poll a potential Senate matchup between incumbent Democratic Senator Kirsten Gillibrand and former Governor George Pataki, even though Pataki has not made any serious overtures towards making the bid. For what it's worth (PDF file), they have Pataki up six (45-39). Against candidates that are actually in the field, Gillibrand is up on Bruce Blakeman by a two-to-one margin (48-24). On the actual candidate front, it now appears that one candidate recruitment rumor in New York is about to come across--former Bush advisor Dan Senor (aka Mr. Campbell Brown) is pretty much a go, according to the NY Daily News.

THE U.S. HOUSE

CA-19: Tight GOP Primary in Radanovich Seat
In the battle to replace retiring GOP Rep. George Radanovich, it is a tight battle on the GOP side, while undecided has a big lead on the Democratic side. So says a new poll from SurveyUSA, which shows Radanovich's endorsed candidate, state legislator Jeff Denham, with a lead of a single point (26-25) over former Fresno Mayor Jim Patterson. Congressman Richard Pombo, who used to rep the neighboring 11th district, lags well behind at 13%. Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, the majority of the voters are still undecided on their choice, with John Estrada pacing the field with 24% of the vote.

GA-09: Special Election Date Now Set For Deal Seat
After GOP Congressman Nathan Deal beat a fast exit out of town after last night's health care vote (he resigned shortly after the vote), Georgia's GOP Governor (Sonny Perdue) quickly set a date for the election to select his replacement. The special election to replace Deal will be on April 27th. Deal's resignation was not abrupt, he had announced it a few weeks back, choosing to focus on his campaign for Governor, where he is challenging state Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine and Sec. of State Karen Handel.

MA-10: Is A Three-Way Contest Pending On the Cape?
Here is an interesting pickup from James L. at Swing State: former Democratic state legislator Maryanne Lewis has left the Democratic Party, perhaps as a prelude to running for Congress in the open 10th district as an Independent. According to James L, this one could truly cut either way. Being a former Dem could siphon off Dem votes, but Lewis had a rep as a conservative, which means she could drain conservative votes from the potential GOP nominee. Speaking of the GOP in the 10th, one longstanding rumor got confirmed, as former state treasurer Joe Malone made it official that he will be a candidate for Congress.

SD-AL: Hildebrand Elects To Pass On Herseth-Sandlin Primary
Less than a week after he made overtures towards engaging fourth-term conservative Democratic Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin, former Obama top campaign official Steve Hildebrand decided to forgo a primary challenge to the Congresswoman. This comes despite Herseth-Sandlin following through on a pledge not to vote for the health care reform package last night. Hildebrand's rationale? It passed by enough votes that Democrats might have "released" her and let her vote strategically against the bill.

VT-AL: Welch Draws GOP Opposition For 2010 Election
Sophomore Democratic Congressman Peter Welch will experience something in his second bid for re-election that he did not have to deal with in the first go-round: an actual Republican opponent. His name is Keith Stern, and he has a run for Congress in his recent past history. He challenged for the seat as an Independent in 2006, and notched three-tenths of one percent of the vote.

THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES

MI-Gov: Pair of Polls Heartening to GOP In Michigan Guv Race
A new poll (PDF) from Inside Michigan Politics by MRG says that the GOP Primary is an almost unbelievable toss-up, with three candidates within a single point. The survey has state AG Mike Cox and Congressman Pete Hoekstra tied at 21%, with businessman Rick Snyder a single point behind at 20%. Undecided is the big leader on the Democratic side, as state House Speaker Andy Dillon leads with 21%. Two-thirds of voters, however, remain undecided. Perhaps not surprisingly given the relatively low name recognition of the candidates on the Democratic side, the polls give clear leads for the GOP candidates, with leads ranging from 15-22 points (which seems rather generous to the Red Team, when compared with other pollsters).

Interestingly, the same pollster (MRG) conducted a separate poll for the Detroit Free Press, measuring the impact of a potential Independent candidacy for former GOP Congressman Joe Schwarz. The impact, when compared to the other MRG poll conducted for Inside Michigan Politics, is minimal: they only tested one matchup (Hoesktra-Dillon-Schwarz). While Hoekstra led by 16 points in the two-way tab for IMP, he leads Dillon by thirteen (35-22) in the three-way tab, with Schwarz nabbing 14%.

NY-Gov: Siena Poll Has Cuomo Up Huge over Old or New GOPers
Whether the Republican nominee is longtime Republican Rick Lazio (the former Congressman and Senate aspirant) or potential nouveau Republican Steve Levy (the Suffolk County Executive), Democratic state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo has a massive lead in the battle to be the state's Governor. So says the latest poll from Siena College. Levy, from the poll, clearly has work to do both in the primary and general elections: he trails Lazio by a 45-16 margin in a prospective GOP primary, and goes on to be blasted by Cuomo in a prospective general election by a 63-16 margin (with 4% for potential Indy candidate Warren Redlich). Lazio only does marginally better against Cuomo, there the margin is a mere thirty-eight points (59-21-3).

In further bad news for the potential Levy candidacy, the state's Conservative Party elected by a 13-5 margin to endorse Lazio, setting up a potential peril for Levy. Lazio has already made it clear that he will run on the Conservative line, with or without a placement on the GOP line.

THE RAS-A-PALOOZA

Time to recap the wave of Rasmussen data that has accumulated over the past several days. Most of them, as would be expected, are pretty rosy for the GOP. In other news, the sun is expected to set in the West this evening, and ice is still cold.

AZ-Sen (R): John McCain 48%, J.D. Hayworth 41%
AZ-Gov (R): Dean Martin 21%, Gov. Jan Brewer 20%, Buzz Mills 19%
FL-Sen: Marco Rubio (R) 42%, Kendrick Meek (D) 25%, Charlie Crist (I) 22%
GA-Gov: Nathan Deal (R) 43%, Roy Barnes (D) 40%
GA-Gov: Karen Handel (R) 42%, Roy Barnes (D) 39%
GA-Gov: John Oxendine (R) 41%, Roy Barnes (D) 41%
GA-Gov: Roy Barnes (D) 40%, Eric Johnson (R) 38%
GA-Sen: Johnny Isakson (R) 52%, Generic Democrat 31%
IA-Sen: Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) 55%, Roxanne Conlin (D) 36%
IA-Sen: Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) 57%, Bob Krause (D) 31%
IA-Sen: Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) 57%, Tom Fiegen (D) 28%
VT-Sen: Sen. Patrick Leahy (D) 58%, Generic Republican 33%

A PowerPoint from Karen Blakeman, presented at a recent event: Web 2 - the truth behind the hype. It is also worth checking out other presentations on her slideshare account, e.g. the 2 uploaded before that are "Buisness research: Web 2.0 is not an option but a necessity" and "Twitter for business: an essential marketing and research tool"
http://www.slideshare.net/KarenBlakeman/
clsig-debate-web-2-the-truth-behind-the-hype
Photo by Sheila Webber: Thessaloniki, March 2010, a flying visit (I catch a plane back at 4.50am tomorrow!) for a PhD viva, but I had a nice walk along the waterfront

by Emily Swanson

Siena
3/15-18/10; 810 registered voters, 3.4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Siena release)

New York

2010 Governor: Republican Primary (trends)
45% Lazio, 16% Levy

2010 Governor: General Election (trends)
59% Cuomo (D), 21% Lazio (R), 3% Redlich (L) (chart)
63% Cuomo (D), 16% Levy (R), 4% Redlich (L)

2010 Senate: General Election (trends)
45% Pataki (R), 39% Gillibrand (D) (chart)
48% Gillibrand (D), 24% Blakeman (R)

Favorable / Unfavorable
David Paterson: 25 / 65 (chart)
Andrew Cuomo: 63 / 22
Rick Lazio: 29 / 27
Kirsten Gillibrand: 32 / 29 (chart)
George Pataki: 56 / 33
Barack Obama: 58 / 37 (chart)
Chuck Schumer: 62 / 27 (chart)
Bruce Blakeman: 8 / 8
Steve Levy: 16 / 16
Warren Redlich: 6 / 10

Job Rating
Gov. Paterson: 16% Excellent/Good, 83% Fair/Poor (chart)

What is it about Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand that makes so many people consider running against her? Today, two Republican candidates—one an economist, the other the father of a moderately famous person—announced that they will campaign against the appointed Senator.

According to the Daily News, former Bear Stearns chief economist and Reagan administration official David Malpass is trying to get his name on the ballot. Malpass—the president of the economic consulting firm Encima Global—says he will officially start his campaign next month, and in interview with CNBC cast himself as an opponent of government spending and the current health care bill, and evoked Republican Sen. Scott Brown's surprising Massachusetts victory.

Also in the race is former Congressman and Westchester Republican Joe DioGuardi—who is best known because his daughter is "American Idol" judge Kara DioGuardi. According to the Daily News, DioGuardi has faced "incessant questioning about Kara" since he declared his candidacy. New York Magazine notes that DioGuardi—the founder of a nonprofit that aims to decrease the national debt—sounded like a "die-hard tea partier" at his campaign kick-off at Grand Central Station this morning. "Are you ready to take your country back!?!" he reportedly shouted. "The new tyranny is Washington and Albany!"

On the busy Republican side of the ballot, Daily News publisher Mort Zuckerman considered running, but scrapped his plans. Amazing political ad-maker and former Port Authority commissioner Bruce Blakeman has already declared his candidacy. GOP leaders have been rallying behind former Bush administration official Dan Senor—who happens to be married to CNN's Campbell Brow. And there's even been talk that Mayor Bloomberg's girlfriend, Diana Taylor, might run.

Elsewhere on this site, I detail the run-in I had with GOP pundit Brad Blakeman last week. During a joint MSNBC appearance, Blakeman misrepresented why George W. Bush launched the Iraq War, claiming Bush did so because Saddam Hussen had refused to allow weapons inspections. On air, I noted this was completely wrong—UN weapons inspectors were in Iraq before the war—and tried to bet him $1,000 on this point. Two days later, Blakeman used the Fox News website to blast me and MSNBC anchor David Shuster and misrepresented the bet. That is, he was twice ensnared in his own web of false spin. But don't take my word for it. On Friday afternoon, Shuster, who moderated that segment, weighed in and pronounced an unambiguous verdict. Here's his take:

We love vigorous debates and discussions on this program. But facts are important. And so, in my notebook item today, I'd like to settle a dispute over facts that came up earlier this week. Two of my guests, David Corn and Brad Blakeman got into a heated argument over a crucial part of the 2003 run-up to the Iraq war.

Blakeman: President Bush did not bring us into this war because of W-M-D. He brought us into this war.

Corn: What?

Blakeman: Because Saddam Hussein failed to allow inspections of the sites the UN demanded be inspected.

Corn: Brad, you are absolutely wrong. The inspectors were in for months before the war.

Blakeman: Come on David.

Corn: I'll bet you a thousand dollars. A thousand dollars the inspectors were there.

Brad Blakeman did not take him up on the bet. And that was wise because a dozen newspaper accounts from 2003, three colleagues at fact-check organizations, and even my office mate Pat Buchanan agree the facts are indisputable and that David Corn was right. UN inspectors were in Iraq and got unfettered access to whatever site they wanted from November 27,2002, until March 18, 2003.

Here's a photo from a March 2003 inspection of the Al Rashid missile site southeast of Baghdad.

The reason the inspectors left Iraq, as USA Today reported at the time, is because the Bush administration told the UN team on March 17 to pull out "for their own safety." The war started March 20.

It's clear the Bush administration, at the time, thought Saddam Hussein was playing games because the inspectors weren't finding anything. But as we know, that's because there was nothing to find. There were no WMDs in Iraq.

For a guest to claim on our air we went to war because the inspectors weren't allowed to various sites and because the inspectors weren't allowed in Iraq in 2003—that is false.

Let this be a lesson to everyone that comes on this program. Facts matter. The truth matters. And as long as I am your host, I'll do everything possible to give you, the viewer, reporting and debates based on the facts, no matter where it may lead us.

Now can Shuster collect the thousand bucks for me?

Elsewhere on this site, I detail the run-in I had with GOP pundit Brad Blakeman last week. During a joint MSNBC appearance, Blakeman misrepresented why George W. Bush launched the Iraq War, claiming Bush did so because Saddam Hussen had refused to allow weapons inspections. On air, I noted this was completely wrong—UN weapons inspectors were in Iraq before the war—and tried to bet him $1,000 on this point. Two days later, Blakeman used the Fox News website to blast me and MSNBC anchor David Shuster and misrepresented the bet. That is, he was twice ensnared in his own web of false spin. But don't take my word for it. On Friday afternoon, Shuster, who moderated that segment, weighed in and pronounced an unambiguous verdict. Here's his take:

We love vigorous debates and discussions on this program. But facts are important. And so, in my notebook item today, I'd like to settle a dispute over facts that came up earlier this week. Two of my guests, David Corn and Brad Blakeman got into a heated argument over a crucial part of the 2003 run-up to the Iraq war.

Blakeman: President Bush did not bring us into this war because of W-M-D. He brought us into this war.

Corn: What?

Blakeman: Because Saddam Hussein failed to allow inspections of the sites the UN demanded be inspected.

Corn: Brad, you are absolutely wrong. The inspectors were in for months before the war.

Blakeman: Come on David.

Corn: I'll bet you a thousand dollars. A thousand dollars the inspectors were there.

Brad Blakeman did not take him up on the bet. And that was wise because a dozen newspaper accounts from 2003, three colleagues at fact-check organizations, and even my office mate Pat Buchanan agree the facts are indisputable and that David Corn was right. UN inspectors were in Iraq and got unfettered access to whatever site they wanted from November 27,2002, until March 18, 2003.

Here's a photo from a March 2003 inspection of the Al Rashid missile site southeast of Baghdad.

The reason the inspectors left Iraq, as USA Today reported at the time, is because the Bush administration told the UN team on March 17 to pull out "for their own safety." The war started March 20.

It's clear the Bush administration, at the time, thought Saddam Hussein was playing games because the inspectors weren't finding anything. But as we know, that's because there was nothing to find. There were no WMDs in Iraq.

For a guest to claim on our air we went to war because the inspectors weren't allowed to various sites and because the inspectors weren't allowed in Iraq in 2003—that is false.

Let this be a lesson to everyone that comes on this program. Facts matter. The truth matters. And as long as I am your host, I'll do everything possible to give you, the viewer, reporting and debates based on the facts, no matter where it may lead us.

Now can Shuster collect the thousand bucks for me?

Spinners gotta spin. And Brad Blakeman, a Republican strategist and commentator, is an expert at keeping his own gyrations turning.

On Tuesday, he and I appeared on MSNBC to discuss Karl Rove's new book. The main issue at hand was Rove's assertion that George W. Bush did not "lie us" into the Iraq war. I went first and explained how the Bush administration had overstated iffy intelligence regarding Iraq's WMD capabilities to grease the way to the invasion. Defending Bush's war, Blakeman, who had worked in the Bush White House's scheduling office, noted that Saddam Hussein had used WMDs against the Kurds—without mentioning that this had happened 15 years before the Iraq war and that UN inspectors had subsequently reported destroying Iraq's WMD facilities. He then asserted that another reason for the war was that Saddam "was preventing inspectors from coming in and inspecting the [suspected WMD] sites that the UN demanded be inspected."

I interrupted, "Brad, that's not true," noting that UN inspectors had been inside Iraq for months prior to the war and had uncovered no evidence of existing WMD stockpiles. "They were denied access," Blakeman insisted." And after I referred to two instances when Bush had made utterly false statements about Saddam's relationship to al Qaeda and his nuclear weapons capabilities—statements not supported by the intelligence of the time—Blakeman argued that Bush had not lied. He repeated his claim that the reason for the war had been Saddam's opposition to weapons inspections:

President Bush did not bring us into this war because of WMD. He brought us into the war because Saddam Hussein failed to allow inspections of the sites the UN demanded be inspected.

I told Blakeman that he was "absolutely wrong" and offered to bet him $1,000 that "the inspectors...were there." Blakeman continued to say that the UN monitors had been kept from inspecting the sites. After host David Shuster said that he thought Blakeman owed me a thousand bucks, Blakeman said, "I never took that bet."

No, he didn't, unfortunately, for he had indeed peddled a false account. And afterward, he spun this whole exchange, brazenly misrepresenting what had transpired.

Continue Reading »

"American Idol" judge Kara DioGuardi's dad, a former congressman, is looking to re-enter the political picture.Joseph DioGuardi, who served two terms in the House of Representatives in the 1980s, is considering a run for one of New York's U.S. Senate seats. DioGuardi, a Republican, is expected to announce his campaign next week, the AP reports.The seat he's running for is currently held by Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand, who was appointed in 2009 after Hillary Clinton left the Senate to become Secretary of State. Whoever wins the special election in November will serve until 2012, then will have to run again to serve a full six-year term.DioGuardi, a certified public accountant, could be part of a potentially crowded Republican primary field. One other candidate, Bruce Blakeman, has already said he's running, and former New York Gov. George Pataki is also thinking about a run, as is former George W. Bush adviser Dan Senor and several others. Joe...

With Tennessean Harold Ford Jr. out of the picture, there’s plenty of room for other unusual characters to join the race for NY’s Senate. Joseph DioGuardi—dad to “American Idol” judge Kara DioGuardi—will announce his bid for Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand’s seat on Tuesday, reports the Daily News. Just yesterday sources suggested that Mayor Bloomberg’s longtime lady friend Diana Taylor would vie for the same Republican nomination.

Though he reared a TV celebrity (originally a singer-songwriter and record producer), DioGuardi is not unqualified: from 1985 to 1988 he served as a congressman representing Westchester County. Now he works as an accountant and political writer for conservative publications.

The only confirmed bid so far for the Republican nomination is Bruce Blakeman, formerly a Nassau County legislator, and short-lived mayoral candidate in 2009. It’s rumored that Dan Senor—who worked as a foreign policy adviser for the Bush administration—may also get in the race.

Victory ends 20-year run for leftist coalition that led country back to democracy after Pinochet's dictatorship

The billionaire businessman Sebastián Piñera was today sworn in as Chile's president and almost immediately ordered coastal residents to flee to higher ground as the country was hit by the largest aftershock since last month's devastating earthquake.

A tsunami warning was issued and the congressional building where the inauguration took place evacuated minutes after Piñera came to power. The strongest of a series of seven aftershocks had a magnitude of 6.9, swaying buildings, shaking windows and sending Chileans streaming into the street.

At the inauguration, Bolivia's President Evo Morales seemed briefly disoriented and Peru's President Alan García joked that it gave them "a moment to dance".

The government's emergency office, much criticised for failing to issue a tsunami alert that might have saved hundreds of lives from the towering waves that followed the initial quake, urged Chileans to seek higher ground even though the epicentre of the biggest shock was inland.

The aftershock occurred along the same fault line as the magnitude-8.8 quake on 27 February.

"When we get quakes in the 8 range, we would expect to see maybe a couple of aftershocks in the 7 range," said Don Blakeman of the US Geological Survey.

The outgoing president, Michelle Bachelet, said she was leaving Chile in good shape, handing over to the first rightwing president in 52 years.

Piñera said he would go right to work. The Harvard-trained economist and airline executive was planning a working visit to the tsunami-hit coastal city of Constitution and a late-night cabinet session.

On election night he had vowed to make Chile "the best country in the world" by spending billions to accelerate economic growth, create a million jobs in four years and combat crime.

Now reconstruction is his top priority. Last month's earthquake the fifth-strongest since 1900 killed 500 people, destroyed or heavily damaged at least 500,000 homes and broke apart highways and hospitals. Repairing infrastructure alone will cost $5bn (£3.3bn), and overall recovery costs could soar above $15bn.

Piñera's victory ended a 20-year run for the leftist coalition that led Chile back to democracy after the dictatorship of General Augusto Pinochet, and puts the country's relatively small business elite directly in power.

But Piñera has promised to maintain social programmes created by Bachelet, who leaves office with an 84% approval ratings.

Tremor of magnitude 7.2 strikes just minutes before inauguration of Sebastián Piñera as president

The largest aftershock since Chile's devastating earthquake 12 days ago rocked the country today, minutes before the inauguration of Sebastián Piñera as president.

The 7.2-magnitude aftershock was stronger than the 12 January quake that devastated the Haitian capital, Port-au-Prince. It happened along the same fault zone as Chile's 8.8-magnitude quake on 27 February, said geophysicist Don Blakeman of the US Geological Survey.

"When we get quakes in the 8 range, we would expect to see maybe a couple of aftershocks in the 7 range," he said. Chile could now expect to feel "aftershocks of the aftershock".

The tremor rocked buildings and shook windows in the capital, Santiago, and provoked nervous smiles among dignitaries arriving for the ceremony at the congressional building in coastal Valparaiso. The Bolivian president, Evo Morales, seemed briefly disoriented and Peru's Alan Garcia joked that it gave them "a moment to dance".

The outgoing president, Michelle Bachelet, arrived in an open limousine, followed by Piñera, who entered the hall of congress to loud applause and swore his oath as president.

As she prepared to hand over the government to the first rightwing president elected in 52 years, Bachelet said: "I'm leaving office with sadness for the suffering of our people, but also with my head held high, satisfied with what we have accomplished."

Bachelet led a "Viva Chile" cheer and then delivered a long goodbye from the presidential palace, La Moneda, where she lingered with a passionate crowd in the plaza outside. Supporters waved socialist party flags and pressed forward to shake her hand, give her flowers and even caress her face.

Piñera, a billionaire investor, Harvard-trained economist and airline executive with little patience for bureaucracy, asked that pomp and circumstance be mostly set aside at his inauguration. Instead, he planned a brief lunch with foreign dignitaries, then a working visit to coastal Constitución, where the tsunami following the earthquake killed many people.

After meeting with survivors, he planned to fly back to the capital, address citizens from a balcony of the presidential palace and then hold a late-night strategy session with his cabinet.

Piñera had vowed on election night to make Chile "the best country in the world", spending billions to accelerate economic growth, create a million jobs in four years and combat crime.

Now reconstruction is his top priority. Last month's earthquake killed 500 identified victims and possibly hundreds of others, destroyed or heavily damaged at least 500,000 homes and broke apart highways and hospitals. Repairing infrastructure alone will cost $5bn and overall recovery costs could soar above $15bn.

Piñera's victory ended a 20-year run for the leftist coalition that led Chile back to democracy after the dictatorship of General Augusto Pinochet, and puts the country's relatively small business elite in power.

David Corn, Mother Jones' Washington Bureau Chief, was on MSNBC on Tuesday to talk about Karl Rove's new book, in which Rove claims that the Bush administration didn't mislead Americans in the run-up to the Iraq war. David says Rove is spinning, but Brad Blakeman, a former Bush administration official, disagrees. Then David suggests he and Blakeman make a bet on that. Watch the video:

“Sales 2.0 is still reactive – we need to go into a proactive mode.” – Gerhard Gschwandtner, Selling Power.

The Sales 2.0 Conference kicked off its second and final day at the Four Seasons San Francisco today, with a rock-solid keynote by OracleCRM’s Mark Woollen .

I’ve packed my Sales 2.0 has been packed with briefings and long-form interviews. In the last 24 hours alone, I’ve sat down for extended conversations with InsideView’s Umberto Miletti, Miller Heiman’s Rich Blakeman, Hoovers’ Linsday Duran and Salesforce’s product maven Brett Queener (not to be confused with professional lacrosse player Brett Queener).

The series of posts that’s going to follow today are the short-form versions of those interviews and briefings, and a wrap-up of the best and brightest moments of the conference. Some of the content may also be cross-posted on Selling Power’s website as well, hence the Sales 2.0 logo. Stay tuned for some awesome stuff.

David Corn, Mother Jones' Washington Bureau Chief, was on MSNBC on Tuesday to talk about Karl Rove's new book, in which Rove claims that the Bush administration didn't mislead Americans in the run-up to the Iraq war. David says Rove is spinning, but Brad Blakeman, a former Bush administration official, disagrees. Then David suggests he and Blakeman make a bet on that. Watch the video:

As seems to be the norm lately, a very busy couple of days in the world of political campaigns and political polling. Let's get right to it....

THE U.S. SENATE

KS-Sen: Either Tiahrt or Moran Favored to Hold Seat for GOP
This will surprise absolutely no one, but Democrats are the longest of longshots to pick up the Senate seat coming open in the Sunflower State, according to new numbers from Rasmussen. Ras polls both Congressman Todd Tiahrt and Congressman Jerry Moran against "Generic Democrat", and ole G.D. gets beat by a roughly 2-to-1 against either of them. Moran does incrementally better (51-26) than does Tiahrt (50-29).

NY-Sen: Gillibrand Leads All Republicans, According to Ras
With each passing day, the reason for Harold Ford Jr's decision to exit the New York Senate race becomes more apparent. Not only were his own political fortunes circling the drain, but his likely Democratic rival, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, is enjoying a bit of a political surge of her own. According to the newest numbers from Rasmussen, Gillibrand leads all GOP comers, including the still-undecided George Pataki, who Gillibrand has trailed in a number of trial heats. She now edges the former Gov by a pair (44-42), and also easily led NY Daily News publisher Mort Zuckerman by double digits (47-36). Interestingly, Ras chose not to poll Bruce Blakeman, who differs from the two tested Republicans in one quirky way--he's actually running. Zuckerman, for his part, seemed to slam the door on a potential bid today.

These numbers by the way, track reasonably closely to a Marist Poll released yesterday, which had Gillibrand tight with Pataki (they gave Pataki a 48-45 lead) while blasting either Zuckerman or Blakeman (Marist had the Senator leading Blakeman 58-28). They also had the other NY Democratic Senator, Chuck Schumer, destroying CNBC analyst Lawrence Kudlow (69-24).

ND-Sen: Democrats Lose Top Recruit For Open Senate Seat
The odds were pretty darned long in any event, and in the final analysis, that might explain why former state Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp made the call not to run for the U.S. Senate this year. The seat, left open by the January retirement of longtime incumbent Byron Dorgan, encouraged GOP Governor John Hoeven to get into the race. Democrats are likely to rely either on state legislator Tracy Potter or young businesswoman Kristin Hedger (who has run statewide, and came close to a victory, despite being just 29 years of age).

THE U.S. HOUSE

OK-02: Boren Looks Safe In Uber-Red Oklahoma District
Dan Boren, the conservative Dem who has been representing the very red 2nd district in Oklahoma since 2004, looks safe for a fourth term, according to a new poll by the crew at PPP. Boren has leads ranging from 16-27 points over a quartet of little known Republican rivals, while an Independent candidate logs in the high single digits.

THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES

GA-Gov: Peach State A Possible Dem Pickup?
PPP takes an early look at the Georgia Governor's race, and finds something that has been thus far elusive in the 2010 campaign cycle, a better-than-expected result for a Democrat. The Democrat is a familiar face to Georgia voters: former Governor Roy Barnes, who served the state from 1999-2003. Barnes has small leads over a trio of GOP challengers in the race to replace term-limited GOP Gov. Sonny Perdue. Barnes leads John Oxendine by a single point (40-39), while Karen Handel and Nathan Deal trail the former Democratic Governor by five points each. Worth noting: Ras also polled this race recently, and has all three GOPers in the lead.

NY-Gov: Cuomo Looks To Make Empire State A Democratic Hold
Now unencumbered by a complicated primary with an embattled Democratic incumbent, Andrew Cuomo is apparently cruising in his bid to be New York's next governor. So says Rasmussen, which gives the Democrat a twenty-five point (55-30) edge over likely GOP nominee Rick Lazio. They also test Buffalo developer Carl Paladino, who might run as a GOPer or a Teabagger. As the GOP nominee, he gets squashed by Cuomo (56-27). If they tag-team Cuomo, Cuomo still wins easily, though his vote share slips to 50%, with Lazio down to 19% and Paladino (as an Independent) down to 15%.

OK-Gov: Oklahoma Looks Like A GOP Flip, According to Rasmussen
Not that this will be a surprise to...well...just about anyone, but after eight years with Democrat Brad Henry at the helm, it looks like ruby-red Oklahoma (among the medallists in the "worst state for Obama" category) will go Republican in 2010, according to new numbers from Rasmussen. Congresswoman Mary Fallin has double digit leads over either Democratic Lt. Governor Jari Askins (51-37) or state Attorney General Drew Edmondson (51-36). The only hope for Dems (and this is even a bit of a stretch) is if somehow state legislator Randy Brogdon wins the GOP nod--the Dems are a toss-up against him.

PA-Gov: Q Poll--Corbett Leads Dems, But Margin Thinning
Quinnipiac is back in the Keystone State, and they have some interesting numbers in the gubernatorial race. While GOP state Attorney General Tom Corbett continues to lead in both the primary and general elections, his numbers have softened noticeably. In the primary, he crushes state legislator Sam Rohrer, but still only gets 43% of Republicans to commit to him (43-5). Meanwhile, in the general election, his lead over Dan Onorato has been cut almost in half, with Corbett now up by just ten points (42-32). This comes on the heels of yesterday's release, which had Democratic Senator Arlen Specter leading Republican Pat Toomey, a reversal of most recent polling on the race.

RI-Gov: Rasmussen Confirms Chafee Lead in Indie Bid
Rasmussen, as always, is a little bearish on Democratic chances here, but their new poll out of the state of Rhode Island basically tracks with other polls. They have former GOP Senator Lincoln Chafee, now running as an Independent candidate, with leads over either major Democrat running for the office. Against treasurer Frank Caprio, Chafee leads 37-27, with Republican John Robataille at 19%. With state Attorney General Patrick Lynch in the mix, Chafee's lead stretches to 38-24, with Robataille at 22%.

One day after former Tennessee Congressman Harold Ford Jr. announced he wouldn't run for Senate, real estate billionaire and Daily News publisher Mort Zuckerman also bailed out of the race. Unlike Ford, who claims he quit to avoid an ugly primary, the 72-year-old said he won't run because he's too busy with family and business obligations: "[I]t is very difficult to see how I can devote the necessary time to either a campaign, or to working in Washington, if I were to win."

According to the Daily News, "Mr. Zuckerman pointed out that he has a young family, which is the most important focus in his life." The possible Republican and Independent candidate also said he didn't want to leave his position as CEO of Boston Properties so soon after the death of the real estate firm's co-founder Ed Linde.

I believe that there is a great deal that needs to be achieved in Washington, not only on behalf of the people of New York, but in trying to break some of the paralyzing deadlock that has gripped the political decision-making process ... However, it demands unhindered attention, which I am unable to give at this time.

The Washington Post reports that Zuckerman was also motivated to drop his bid because he doesn't want to sever his ties to non-profits and other associations—many of them pro-Israel, according to Politico. With Ford and Zuckerman out, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand has a much easier path towards election. But the Paterson-appointee could still face challenges from possible Republican candidates including former Port Authority Commissioner Bruce Blakeman, economist David Malpass, and former Bush advisor Dan Senor.

A new Marist Poll finds former New York Gov. George Pataki (R) is the only Republican who leads in a U.S. Senate match up against Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY). Pataki would edge Gillibrand, 48% to 45%.However, Gillibrand would crush Mort Zuckerman (R), 59% to 26%, and dominate Bruce Blakeman, 58% to 28%.Another interesting finding: One possible reason Harold Ford (D) declined to challenge…

0 comments Source: politicalwire.com

A new Marist Poll finds former New York Gov. George Pataki (R) is the only Republican who leads in a U.S. Senate match up against Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY).

Pataki would edge Gillibrand, 48% to 45%.

However, Gillibrand would crush Mort Zuckerman (R), 59% to 26%, and dominate Bruce Blakeman, 58% to 28%.

Another interesting finding: One possible reason Harold Ford (D) declined to challenge Gillibrand in a Democratic primary is that she opened up a 31 point lead over him in recent weeks.

by Emily Swanson

Marist
2/22-24/10; 646 registered voters, 4% margin of error
3/1/10; 543 registered voters, 4.5% margin of error
2/22-24/10, 3/1/10; 524 Democrats, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Marist: Governor, Senate)

New York

2010 Governor: General Election
64% Cuomo, 28% Lazio (chart)

2010 Senate: Democratic Primary*
50% Gillibrand, 19% Ford, 3% Tasini (trend)
*Harold Ford announced last night that he would not run for Senate

2010 Senate: General Election (trends)
48% Pataki, 45% Gillibrand (chart)
59% Gillibrand, 26% Zuckerman
58% Gillibrand, 28% Blakeman

Governor Paterson has said he will not run for election as governor this November. Do you think he should also resign as governor or do you think he should serve out the rest of his term?
28% Resign, 66% Serve out term

An investigation is underway to find out what occurred during a conversation Governor Paterson had with the victim of a possible domestic violence case against one of the governors top aides. Regarding Governor Paterson's contact with the victim, do you think the governor:
12% Did nothing wrong
40% Did something unethical, but not illegal
18% Did something illegal

In general, do you think Governor Paterson is being treated fairly or unfairly?
55% Fairly, 36% Unfairly

Job Rating
Gov. Paterson: (chart)
March 1: 23% Excellent/Good, 71% Fair/Poor
Feb. 22-24: 24% Excellent/Good, 72% Fair/Poor
Sen. Gillibrand: 25% Excellent/Good, 53% Fair/Poor (chart)
Sen. Schumer: 53% Excellent/Good, 43% Fair/Poor (chart)

by Guest Pollster

Harry Enten is a junior at Dartmouth College and will be interning with Pollster.com this spring and summer.

Yesterday, Nate Silver posted a well thought out post on why the 50% incumbent rule no longer applies. I think Nate's post is straight on, but I think that he misses a potentially larger point. In his chart, you'll notice something very interesting: no incumbent from 06, 08, or 09 won when trailing by more than 1.5 points in the January to June average of polls. I think that points to potentially very large problems for Democrats in the 2010 United States Senate Elections. Why? If current polling averages hold through June, the Democrats would be on the verge on losing the United States Senate, according to Silver's findings. What follows is a simple rundown of the top (and some not so top) United States Senate races involving seats held by Democrats. I apply Nate's rule of averaging all the polls available (including partisan ones). I supply a two month (starting in January as Nate did) and six month (using length of time of) Nate's average (when available) to try and catch short and long term trends. To be fair, I take only the highest polling Republican candidates. I don't intend this to be a be all end all, but the results are still amazingly scary for Democrats.

I find 6 Democratic incumbents who would most likely lose re-election, if the polling averages held through June. One Democratic incumbent does lead, but she is also going to have a difficult time in her fight for re-election.

1. Arkansas- Democratic Senator Lincoln trails by an average of 21.5 points since January to Rep. John Boozman and 10 points since January and 5.4 points since September to Gilbert Baker. Not only is Lincoln in trouble, but her trouble seems to be getting worse by the day. Unless a dramatic turn occurs in the polls (and considering Boozman is the likely Republican candidate), Lincoln is probably a goner.

2. Nevada- Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is in major trouble. He had trailed potential Republican candidates Danny Tarkanian by an average of 7.8 points since January and 6.9 points since September and Sue Lowden by 7.8 points since January and 8.2 points since September. Such polling and past history would argue that Reid is dead in the water; however, the emergence of Tea Party candidate Jon Ashjian has thrown the race somewhat into doubt. Reid still trails both candidates, but, with Ashjian in the race, Lowden leads by only 5 and Tarkanian only leads by 1 point in the only poll including the Tea Party candidate. Still, Reid's position is precarious at best, and he would almost definitely lose to Lowden, if the averages held through June.

3. Colorado- Senator Michael Bennet is not an incumbent in the traditional sense (he was appointed to the post), and both appointed Senators Bob Menendez and Roger Wicker were among the incumbents who performed significantly better than the average of polls between January and June indicated. Bennet is also facing a primary challenge from Andrew Romanoff. If Bennet makes it out of the primary (an if, but the only poll conducted so far indicated Bennet leads), he trails by 9.5 since January and 9.3 points since September to Republican Jane Norton, 2.3 points since January and 2 since September to Tom Wiens, and 2 points since January and 0.8 since September to Ken Buck. If those leads hold (and they seem to slightly be expanding), Bennet is in major, major trouble especially against Norton. Ramonoff does not do much better; he trails Norton by 6.8 points since January and 7.7 points since September, 1.7 points since January and 1.5 points since September to Tom Wiens, and 2 points in both the January and September averages to Ken Buck. Romanoff seems to be a slight underdog, especially against Norton.

4. Pennsylvania- Republican turn Democrat Arlen Specter is in as in much troubled as the 2010 New York Mets. He trails Republican challenger Fmr. Rep. Pat Toomey by 8.8 points in an average of the polls since January and 4 points since September. Both of these averages would render him on life support applying Silver's standard come June. Specter is being challenged in the Democratic primary by Congressman Joe Sestak. Specter currently leads Sestak in that primary by 20 points (a lead, which is growing). If Sestak somehow won the primary, he trails Toomey by an average of 12 points and 6.9 points in polls conducted since January and September respectively. In a Republican year, it would be very difficult for Sestak to make a comeback from being this far back.

5. New York- Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, like Senator Bennet, is an appointed Senator in trouble. Her negative net approvals indicate a good challenger would have a fair shot. The mostly unheard of Bruce Blakeman trails Gillibrand by 22 points and 24.7 points in the polling average since January and September respectively. Potential candidate Fmr. Governor George Pataki would make it a race. He leads Gillibrand by 5.5 points in the average since January and 1.4 points in the average since September. Pataki leads the other potential Democratic candidate Harold Ford (who has trailed by 14 points or greater in every primary poll against Gillibrand) by an even larger 14.8 points since January. If Pataki does get into the race, he would be a very formidable challenger. Of course, even if Pataki does not enter the race, Gillibrand's approvals leave her in a vulnerable position.

6. Washington- Senator Patty Murray is not the first Senator you think of as in danger. The Cook Political Report, Rothenberg Political Report, and Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball all have this race rated as safely Democratic, but one Republican challenger could make it a race. Republican Dino Rossi leads by 2 points over Murray in two recent polls. Rossi nearly won the Governor's mansion in 2004, losing in a recount, and he only lost by 6.5 points in 2008 when President Obama carried the state by 17 points illustrating his appeal as a statewide candidate. If the recent polls hold, Rossi could give Murray one heck of a fight.

7. California- Democrat Barbara Boxer leads her strongest challenger Republican Tom Campbell by on an average of 5.5 points in polls taken since January. Boxer has the edge in this matchup, but the Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball have the race at only Lean Democratic. Keep in mind, Republicans Carly Fiorina and Chuck DeVore poll considerably weaker. As such, Republicans should hope that Campbell wins the nomination, if they are looking for the candidate with the best shot at winning. He leads in recent primary polls.

The two and six month polling averages indicate that the Republicans are in a position to defeat six Democratic incumbents. This position seems to have strengthened over the last two months. In two states, New York and Washington, they need to hope they can recruit two candidates. If they do and the averages hold, Republicans could easily be up to 47 seats in the United States Senate.

When you combine these races with open Democratic seats, the Democratic majority looks like it could fall.

1. North Dakota- Republican Governor John Hoeven leads all opponents by at least 21 points, and he is over 50% in all polls conducted since January. He'll win unless a divine miracle happens for the Democrats.

2. Delaware- Congressman At-Large (meaning he represents the entire state) Mike Castle leads Democrat Chris Coons by an 22.7 and 20 points in polls conducted since January and September respectively, and he has been over 50% in every poll ever conducted in this race. Coons is not as dead as the Democrats in North Dakota, but he has a very high hill to climb.

3. Indiana- Republicans Fmr. Senator Dan Coats and Fmr. Representative John Hostettler lead both Democratic Congressmen Brad Ellsworth and Baron Hill by at least 14 points in the only poll conducted since Democratic incumbent Evan Bayh announced he was not running for re-election. We'll have to see if this poll is an aberration, but the Cook Political Report already has this seat leaning Republican.

4. Illinois- Republican Congressman Mark Kirk trails Democrat Alexi Giannoulias by 0.2 points in the polling average since January, but Kirk leads Giannoulias by 0.4 points in the average since September. It could go either way.

In conclusion, I am by no means saying that the Republicans will take back the Senate; however, the polling in conjunction with past results indicate that it not that long of a shot that they do. Democratic candidates seem to be consistently weak over the last six months, and the Republicans seem to be moving into a stronger position in the last two months. Keep in mind that in 06 and 08, Democrats pretty much swept all the hotly contested races (save Tennessee in 06 and Georgia in 08. In these years as well as 1994, the party who lost seats (Democrats in 1994 and Republicans in 2006 and 2008) did not win a single seat belonging to the other party.

If the national environment for Democrats does not improve, these polling averages probably will not get that much better for Democrats. And if the averages do not get better, Silver's findings show the Republicans are at least in a position to win 10 seats and take back the United States Senate.

Ben at Blazer's Edge highlights the hearing yesterday on the Comcast and Blazers television situation. Ben also got an interview with former Bush senior staffer Brad Blakeman. Wendell Maxey of Beyond the Beat wonders if Portland has the worst karma in the NBA . Jason Quick gets a few nice ...

BustaBucket posted 19 hours ago from bustabucket.com

Find more top sports news, videos, and blogs on BallHype: NBA, Portland Blazers, Toronto Raptors, Brandon Roy, Andre Miller, Hedo Turkoglu

I always knew Comcast's handling of its Blazers television rights was bad.  But I never knew exactly how bad.  That changed yesterday when, during a telephone interview, a former Bush White House Senior Staffer slammed the company's greed and decried its lack of transparency. I'm not sure it gets worse than that.  When those guys think you've crossed those lines ... you're doing it wrong.  Really wrong.

And that's exactly what happened during my Wednesday afternoon phone interview with Brad Blakeman, George W. Bush's Deputy Assistant to the President for Appointments and Scheduling.  If you google him, you'll find out pretty quickly that the internet generally dislikes him for his strong conservative stances.  Blakeman is also a self-professed sports fan, though, and he is currently a board member for the Sports Fans Coalition, a national advocacy group whose main goal is to further the fan's interests when it comes to issues like publicly-financed stadiums and television availability of games.  Blakeman isn't the group's only heavy hitter.  David Goodfriend, President Clinton's Deputy Staff Secretary, is the SFC's chairman. Access to sports, Blakeman says, "is a truly bipartisan issue." Word to that.

So what does the SFC have to do with you and the Blazers? Well, they were in Salem yesterday to provide testimony at a hearing called by the Oregon State House, whose Committee on Consumer Protection and Government Accountability is investigating Comcast's eternally shady failure to strike a deal with the satellite companies for distribution of Blazers games.

TheOregonPolitico.com has extensive, excellent coverage of the hearing.  They've got video interviews, transcripts, the whole nine yards.  They summarize yesterday's proceedings...

Coverage of the state's biggest sports franchise, the Portland Trail Blazers, was the sole topic of conversation at the final House Consumer Protection Committee's hearing Wednesday afternoon.

The informational hearing was held to allow discussion from interested parties on the controversy of Comcast SportsNet's Trail Blazer coverage. The meeting drew testimony from the Sports Fan Coalition, Comcast SportsNet, and John Canzano, one of the state's most influential sports writers.

The controversy erupted after the Trail Blazers entered into agreement with Comcast SportsNet to locally broadcast all of the team's games on either that channel or on KGW, Portland's NBC affiliate. Tempers began to flare when locals not in an area to receive Comcast cable were no longer able to watch the Blazer games at home.

It's great to see Canzano take a break from getting worked by Chip Kelly to continue to speak on the one issue he has gotten completely right from the get-go. It's also great to see Representative Jefferson Smith, who has contributed to Blazersedge in the past, stand up for his fellow Blazers fans.  As quoted by Joe Freeman... 

"I'm not persuaded that (we) should do nothing," Rep. Jefferson Smith, D-Portland, said. "I'm not persuaded that this is merely a private sector fight and we should leave it up to the private sector. There is a role for us to ask the kind of question that this raises. And if there is nothing an Oregon Legislature can do, then who does?"

But did the hearing matter?  I confess that my first thought when I heard about this hearing is that it had every element necessary for a dog and pony show: Politicians, Comcast, and John Canzano.  Freeman concludes...

After listening to official testimony about the limited availability of the broadcast of Blazers games, the House Committee on Consumer Protection and Government Accountability walked away unsure, if not uneasy, about what role they could play in stimulating a resolution. 

The committee met in an informational meeting and now must decide what, if anything, to do next to help Oregonians in their efforts to watch Blazers games.     

All in all, it's difficult to state that yesterday's hearing represents real progress, although a public shaming of Comcast always makes for a good time.  With that in mind, why don't you click through for my interview with Blakeman, who gets up on the bully pulpit to:

• Slam Comcast's "monopoly" 
• Send a message to the Portland Trail Blazers to stand up for their fans
• Request that the Oregon legislature and its representatives work to hold up approving Comcast's merger with NBC until Comcast gets the necessary deals done here in Oregon. 

-- Ben Golliver | benjamin.golliver@gmail.com | Twitter

Blazersedge: Is this a pretty unusual thing for a state government to do? To call a cable company's practices into question like this and to solicit feedback from people such as yourself and other media members?  Or is this something that has happened other places around the country?

I think it is probably unique but that's not to say that it's not a good thing to do. I think it's exactly what the doctor ordered. A little transparency and sunshine on these deals that tend to be made behind closed doors.

We're not seeking to interfere with contracts between two entities -- in this case the Trail Blazers and Comcast -- what we're doing is we want to call into question why Comcast didn't do what they said they were going to several years ago in making home teams available to their competitors at a price that can be passed along to the consumers of Dish or any other entity.  

The past two years the Trail Blazers have been sold out. Yet there are 10,000s of fans who are locked out of seeing home games because they don't have Comcast, not by choice in some instances. Comcast isn't a deliverable where they live.  They have other ways of getting programming. So why doesn't Comcast do what they originally said they were going to do and make this home game issue go away by providing it to competitors so that every Trail Blazer fan can watch in the comfort of their home or their favorite restaurant or bar?

Blazersedge: That's a question we've asked many times. The answer that always comes from Comcast is "we're negotiating in good faith we just haven't reached a price that we consider fair for both sides." Do you take them at their word when they say that? 

Absolutely not. If they wanted to make a deal, they could make a deal. They choose not to. Two reasons: greed and control. They control the market, they control the price. The Trail Blazers are your only professional sports team. In fact they have a monopoly over who sees the games and who doesn't. It's not right and it's not fair for the sports fans. We started this organization to fight for the sports fans. And heretofore they've been on the sidelines and we're here to make sure they take the field and at least be heard.

Blazersedge: "Monopoly" is a word that I think Comcast would probably push back against pretty hard.  

It is what it is. It is a monopoly on games and it's deliverable. Yes, they made a contract with the Trail Blazers to the tune of, we believe, 10 years and 120 million [dollars].  They initially made representation that they would provide home games to their competitors at a fair price. That has not been done. Yet now they are seeking Oregon's help in the anti-trust exemption for the merger between Comcast and NBC. Now they want something again from the people.

I think it's up to the people to say, 'Hey, wait a second. Before we seek to grant you antitrust status, we want to find out why it is that you never reached a deal with your competitors to deliver these games like you had promised to do in good faith.' I think it's time for the government now to turn the tables on Comcast and say, "What have you done? You haven't acted in good faith, why do you want us to broaden your business model with now merging with NBC?'

Blazersedge: What do you make of the deals Comcast has announced with some of the minor cable companies in Oregon? Some have painted those deals as a kind of ruse or a distraction from the fact they haven't come to terms with the larger providers.

Of course. It's to say, 'Hey, look, we made a deal! And we can make a deal with our other competitors but we're not there yet.'  Well how long is it going to take to make a deal? In the meantime, who is suffering? The fans are suffering. They can't even go to a game because the games are sold out.

It really is a position -- nobody has turned the heat up on Comcast. Now Comcast comes hat in hand to the government of Oregon and says, 'approve our merger. Don't stand in the way of our Merger." Oregonians are saying, 'Wait a second Comcast, you have a lot of explaining to do.'

It's because nobody heretofore has given them a voice and has shed light on what is being done on what directly affects them. We now have a Chapter started here in Oregon and we're going to make sure that the people of Oregon are well-informed about what is going on with the Trail Blazers and Comcast.

Blazersedge: Up to this point, you have been a national advocacy group and now you have a local chapter here in Portland. Has that mostly or almost totally come about because of this unique situation with the Blazers and Comcast or is it something else about Portland that made you start your first local chapter here?

I think this was obviously the catalyst by which to start a chapter here. Our plan and our goal is to have a chapter in every state and then in every major market within the state because sports is a literally 100s of billions of dollars business. In our economy it's larger than the US auto industry. And the fans are directly affected by contracts they are not even a party to. But they're beneficiaries of and they should have a voice. Agreements should be honored when it affects them. Promises should be kept.

Blazersedge: There's a lot of skepticism in Portland about Comcast and how they will continue to stall, stall, stall on the deals so they can continue to gain subscribers. What do you think is a reasonable best case scenario for Blazers fans at this point in terms of when they can expect coverage to open up?

Well, we have a good start. They should write their Congress people. Because the merger that Comcast and NBC are taking is a national merger. They should also be talking to their state legislators and put some heat on.  One thing is for sure: the State House Committee on Consumer Protection and Government Accountability has taken note of it. And maybe with the Comcast testimony today it will be a start where this is going to be seen to fruition and Comcast is going to be made to do what they said they were going to do originally.  

But now they want something from the people. They want the citizens of Oregon through their government to approve their merger. Shame on the government of Oregon if they give a knee jerk approval to it when Comcast has not honored their agreement to provide games to the thousands of fans who are locked out.

Blazersedge: What kind of scene do you expect in Salem?  Do you think this is for show or do you think they are really serious about questioning Comcast?

I think they are [serious]. I don't think they would go through this as a dog and pony show. I think they are serious about it and they want to get to the bottom of it and this is a good start. In doing it and shedding some light on a situation that has been pretty much stonewalled the last couple years.

Blazersedge: What motivated you to get involved with the Sports Fan Coalition? A personal sports interest or something else?

It's mainly fairness and equity. I believe that when government funds are used to build arenas that there should be fair stadium pricing. I think fans should not be locked out of their favorite teams being shown on television. I believe that fans need to be more represented when they are the direct beneficiaries and in some cases the brunt of the decisions that are made int heir name.  But nobody has ever bothered to consult them. Whether it's the municipality, the team or the television provider. I think they deserve a voice even though they aren't party to the contract legally, per se, they certainly deserve a voice in the decisions that are made on their behalf.

Yeah, I'm a sports fan. But more important than that, I thrive on public policy, good public policy, I've been involved in it all my life. And this is a truly bipartisan issue. Whether you are a Republican or a Democrat, I believe fans deserve a right to be fairly.  

Blazersedge: What would you tell the Blazers to do from today forward?  The past is the past.  But what is your message to the team that signed this contract that has left so many of its fans stranded?

They should say, 'Comcast, do the right thing. Our games are sold out, we have an avid sports audience throughout the state and it's hurting our franchise not being able to have games provided. Please make the deal.' Put pressure on. Come to the side of the sports fan. They're in the right here. They're the ones who are aggrieved by the decision by Comcast not to act in good faith.

You can also check out Blakeman's full testimony yesterday here.  If you're passionate about the television issue, as I know thousands of you are, you might consider giving the SFC a look-through.  Here's their website.  For information about their Portland chapter, click here.

-- Ben Golliver | benjamin.golliver@gmail.com | Twitter

Like many former Liberals of a certain vintage, I was wooed to the cause of electoral reform by the diminutive but formidable figure of Enid Lakeman, who even at an advanced age could spear opponents with her logic and conviction. I wish she were around today to add her appraisal of whether Gordon Brown's referendum on AV is a step forwards or a step backwards in the long march to Fair Votes. As virtually everyone seems to be talking about 'fairness' these days, surely it is time that LibDems seized the moment and trumpeted our belief in STV? Moreover, we ...

It is an all-out poll-u-copia today, and not just of the Rasmussen variety. In other words, hunker down for what is a pretty busy Wednesday night for your reading pleasure here at the Wrap...

THE U.S. SENATE

FL-Sen: Meek Way Behind GOP Candidates, According to Ras
The Rasmussen poll this week showing Charlie Crist badly trailing Marco Rubio in the GOP Senate primary in the Sunshine State has been widely publicized. Getting less ink has been the general election numbers, which were less than positive for Democratic frontrunner Kendrick Meek. Meek gets pounded in the general election no matter whether Crist (48-32) or Rubio (51-31) winds up as the Republican nominee.

GA-Sen: Is Johnny Isakson Potentially Imperiled? Ras Says Maybe
A couple of days after Rasmussen showed Democrat Roy Barnes within striking distance in red-leaning Georgia's high-profile Governor's race, they follow up with a bit of a shock in the low-profile Senate race. They have Johnny Isakson, seen by virtually everyone as safe as could be, only leading a "generic Democrat" by thirteen points (49-36). Of course, "generic Democrat" is not an actual candidate, and there haven't been many whispers of legit Dem candidates eyeing this race.

OH-Sen: New Q-Poll Gives Portman Slight Lead Over Dems
Quinnipiac returns to the Buckeye State, and finds that former GOP Congressman Rob Portman has a modest lead over either Democratic frontrunner. When paired with Lt. Governor Lee Fisher, Portman leads by three points (40-37). Against Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, the lead stretches out to five points (40-35). The Q poll also takes a look at the Democratic primary, but "undecided" would be the big winner there, as Fisher sits on a nine-point edge (29-20) over Jennifer Brunner.

NY-Sen: Is Former Bush Advisor Eyeing the Senate Race?
Here is a potentially curious twist to what has already been a campaign cycle full of them in New York: the latest GOP name to surface in regard to Kirsten Gillibrand's seat in the U.S. Senate (which she will be defending this Fall) is Dan Senor. If that name rings a slight bell, you might know it for two reasons. One, he was a fairly high-profile advisor to former President George W. Bush. Two, in media circles, he might be better known as the hubby of CNN anchor Campbell Brown. Remember that it was just last week that NY Daily News publisher Mort Zuckerman was also flirting with making this race. It seems that we can take this as a sign that the GOP is not in love with Bruce Blakeman as their standard-bearer.

PA-Sen: Specter Leads Primary, Trails General, In Strange F&M Poll
Franklin and Marshall releases some new nums in the state of Pennsylvania, and the very hot Senate race found in the Keystone State. In the Democratic Primary, the incumbent (Senator Arlen Specter) leads Congressman Joe Sestak, but remains well below 50% support (33-16). In the general election, the numbers get very curious. Among registered voters, the margins were very close, with Specter beating presumptive GOP nominee Pat Toomey by four points (33-29) while Sestak trailed by just three points (25-22). Among the people F&M considered likely voters, however, Toomey has a double-digit lead over both Specter (44-34) and Sestak (38-20). Now, there is usually some gap between registered voters and likely voters, but this strikes me as more than a little absurd.

THE U.S. HOUSE

KS-01: Potential Mod/Con Clash in Open Seat, According to SUSA Poll
SurveyUSA, which is normally an incredibly prolific pollster but has been curiously silent this campaign season (save for a couple of polls contracted for FDL), is back with a primary poll in a fairly low-profile open-seat race in Kansas. There is no question that the winner in West Kansas' 1st district (which went 69% for John McCain in '08) will be a Republican. Therefore, as is often the case in Kansas (see Thomas Frank's book on the subject), the question is what type of Republican wins the nod. According to the poll, the "moderate" Republican has the edge. State senator Jim Barnett has 23% of the vote, leading the CfG/Ron Paul candidate, Tim Huelskamp, who trails slightly with 16% of the vote. The rest of the field is in single digits.

THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES

CA-Gov: Poll Confirms Whitman Blowout in GOP Primary
Despite the solemn promises from GOP state insurance commissioner Steve Poizner that he is going to "spend it all" in an effort to win the GOP gubernatorial primary, it is looking exceedingly likely that it won't help. Meg Whitman has a commanding lead in a new poll conducted for the Small Business Action Committee. According to the poll, Whitman leads Poizner 60-12. Whitman, it must be said, has been at a saturation level of advertising throughout the coverage of the Winter Olympics, with ads (tragically, the same ad) running several times a day for the past two weeks.

FL-Gov: Sink Continues To Trail By Double-Digits, Says Rasmussen
Rasmussen is the latest pollster to chronicle a race that appears, at least on the surface, to be slipping away from the Dems. Rasmussen has GOP Attorney General Bill McCollum leading Democratic state CFO Alex Sink by thirteen points (48-35). This is in line with other recent polling: the last poll to put Sink within single digits was released in November.

NM-Gov: Denish Holds A Modest Lead in Gov's Race, Says PPP
Democrat Diane Denish is the early frontrunner in the state's open-seat gubernatorial election, according to new numbers out today from PPP. Denish leads the best-known Republican contender in the field, Pete Domenici Jr., by a five-point margin (45-40). Against the rest of the Republican hopefuls, Denish holds double-digit leads. One liability for her potentially is her predecessor. Bill Richardson's number in-state are atrocious: his job approval is a paltry 28%.

OH-Gov: Improving Poll Numbers for a Dem Incumbent (No...Really!)
It's been quite a while since we've been able to cobble that particular headline together, but incumbent Democratic Governor Ted Strickland actually looks to have recovered from a spate of bad polling. The Q poll has Strickland up five points on presumptive GOP nominee John Kasich (44-39). The previous Q poll had the race tied, and other recent polls gave Kasich an edge. One note to defend against "lib-biased poll" accusations: the same poll gave President Obama his weakest approval numbers to date in the Q poll (44/52).

RI-Gov: Brown U. Says Indie Chafee The Early Leader
Brown University, which polls the home state of Rhode Island intermittently, hit the state earlier this month to look at the potentially interesting three-way gubernatorial race in Rhode Island. Against either Dem prospect, Republican-turned-Independent Lincoln Chafee leads, with the Dem in second, and Republican John Robataille running third. State treasurer Frank Caprio comes a bit closer (34-28-12) than state Attorney General Patrick Lynch (32-17-13). In the Democratic primary, undecided is the big winner, with Caprio leading Lynch 30-21.

PA-Gov: Undecided Big Winners In Primary Battles
In addition to their Senate polling (covered a little earlier), Franklin and Marshall also looked at the upcoming (May 18) primaries for Governor in the Keystone State. In both cases, a ridiculously small number of voters cited a preference. On the GOP side, it is a massive lead for state AG Tom Corbett, but even he notched just 26% of the vote (state legislator Sam Rohrer lags behind at just 4%). On the Dem side, the lack of attachment was even more apparent, as over 70% of voters did not pick a favorite. Three Democrats (Wagner, Onorato, and Hoeffel) all tied...at a whopping 6% of the vote.

TX-Gov: Dueling Numbers On Next Week's Primary Elections
Depending on whether you buy stock in PPP's numbers or Rasmussen's, Texas Governor Rick Perry may or may not be able avoid a runoff in next week's GOP gubernatorial primary. Ras has Perry on the verge of winning outright on Tuesday, with the incumbent gaining 48% of the vote, to 27% for Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison and 16% for teabagger Debra Medina, whose numbers have clearly stalled. Meanwhile, PPP has Perry favored to be forced into a runoff, earning just 40% of the vote to Hutchison's 31% and Medina's 20%. For what it's worth, PPP also says that Perry would easily win a runoff, in any event.

In the general election, Rasmussen contributes some new numbers, and they continue to show near-certain (he has an insurmountable lead in the PPP poll) Democratic nominee Bill White in an extremely competitive position against his likely opponent, Governor Perry. Perry leads White by just six points (47-41), while Hutchison has a slightly bigger lead over White (47-38). Medina's recent flirtation with truther and birther hijinks have cost her dearly in the general election--White now holds a ten point edge (47-37) over Medina in the incredibly rare circumstance that she becomes the nominee.

WI-Gov: GOP Has Early Edge, Says Rasmussen
Rasmussen's numbers in the past two weeks have moderated somewhat in terms of where they sit vis-a-vis other recent polls. On exception would be Wisconsin, where the pollster sees a sizeable edge for Republican Scott Walker over Democrat Tom Barrett (49-40). Rasmussen also says that former GOP Congressman Mark Neumann also leads Tom Barrett (44-42).

The list of possible candidates considering challenging Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand keeps on growing. Dan Senor—a former advisor to Pres. Bush and a one-time spokesman for Iraq's provisional government—is reportedly "very interested" in running on the Republican ticket.

Sources tell the Post that Senor has been consulting with "political people and money types" across the state. The occasional Fox News pundit and husband of CNN's Campbell Brown also met with state Republican party chair Ed Cox. According to the tabloid, he might win over voters because "he was among the civilian officials who served the longest in Iraq as the post-Saddam Hussein government was being established."

Also considering a campaign on the Republican ticket is Daily News publisher and real estate billionaire Mort Zuckerman, who has been courting some of the same high-ranking state Republicans as Senor. Wall Street economist David Malpass and amazing-political-ad-maker Bruce Blakeman are planning runs as Republicans. On the Democratic side, former Tennessee congressman and Wall Street executive Harold Ford Jr. has been running a still unofficial campaign against Gillibrand.

The field of challengers to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D., N.Y.) could be getting wider:

Dan Senor, the husband of CNN's Campbell Brown and a former Bush administration foreign policy adviser, is eyeing a run as a Republican against Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, The Knickerbocker has learned.

Senor has been meeting with people recent weeks around the state - including "political people and money types," said one source.

Senor has already spoken with state GOP chairman Ed Cox, The Knickerbocker confirmed.

Senor is the founder of Rosemont Capital LLC, and brings to his resume the fact that he was among the civilian officials who served the longest in Iraq as the post-Saddam Hussein government was being established.

"I think he's very interested," said a Republican source. "He's very bright, would be a strong candidate."

Among those already openly looking at a run, or running, in the GOP line is Bruce Blakeman, financial expert David Malpass and Daily News owner and publisher Mort Zuckerman.

---

The changing landscape of search: essential new tools for finding information is a seminar at the University of Manchester, UK, 14 July 2010. It will be led by the experienced information consultant, Karen Blakeman. For more info go to http://www.ukeig.org.uk/training/
2010/landscapeofsearch.htm
This is also a good opportunity to publicise Karen's electronic newsletter
http://www.rba.co.uk/tfttr/index.shtml (headline in the Jan 2010 one "Your Google results are about to get weirder") and her business information sources guide http://www.rba.co.uk/sources/

by Emily Swanson

Siena
2/14-19/10; 805 registered voters, 3.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Siena release)

New York

2010 Governor: Democratic Primary
64% Cuomo, 22% Paterson (chart)

2010 Governor: General Election
46% Lazio, 39% Paterson (chart)
63% Cuomo, 26% Lazio (chart)

2010 Senate: Democrtic Primary (trends)
42% Gillibrand, 16% Ford, 4% Tasini

2010 Senate: General Election (trends)
47% Pataki, 41% Gillibrand (chart)
51% Gillibrand, 24% Blakeman
48% Pataki, 34% Ford

Favorable / Unfavorable
David Paterson: 35 / 55 (chart)
Andrew Cuomo: 66 / 21
Rick Lazio: 31 / 26
Kirsten Gillibrand: 34 / 28 (chart)
Harold Ford: 25 / 19
George Pataki: 56 / 34
Bruce Blakeman: 5 / 11
Chuck Schumer: 61 / 29 (chart)
Barack Obama: 61 / 35 (chart)

Job Rating
Gov. Paterson: 22 / 76 (chart)

Cross-posted at Jack & Jill Politics, where founder Baratunde Thurston writes as Jack Turner - Promoted by Rosi

(Note from Baratunde: I'm a resident of Brooklyn, NY and co-founder of Jack & Jill Politics. I perform standup comedy and work by day at The Onion. Finally, GO BLUE JERSEY!)

Last night I visited Newark, NJ for the first time. I'd been through Newark on buses and trains between NYC and Philly or DC, but I had never bothered to stop. I'd become mildly obsessed with the city as my previous posts on Mayor Cory Booker and the Brick City documentary made clear. However, last night, I had good reason to exit the train station and stay a while.

I had been invited, along with comedians Leighann Lord and Scott Blakeman, to donate my time to a re-election fundraiser for the city councilman for the West Ward. Ron Rice Jr, I was told, was s true progressive. He was the first New Jersey candidate nationally endorsed by Democracy For America. He supports marriage equality, believes in evolution and was part of the largest turnover in Newark city government when he, along with Mayor Booker and five other council members, were elected in 2006.

These are all nice boxes one can check off on a list defining a "good progressive candidate," but these are not the things that convinced me to jump on a commuter rail and tell jokes to strangers. What stood out to me was that Rice?helped start the West Ward Collective whose stated mission is:

To finish the business of the 1969 Black and Puerto Rican Convention by decentralizing the decision-making process of the city of Newark by example in the West Ward and to empower West Ward stakeholders to create a holistically stable ward for all of its residents.
The West Ward Collective is organized and run by workgroups and ward based organizations and non-profits... Each workgroup is made up of West Ward residents, community based organization leaders, ward business owners, etc. that have expertise and/or interest in working on these issues directly for the benefit of the West Ward. It is ward based.

The WWC is organized into a series of workgroups such as education, arts and culture, housing, etc and meets twice a month. It helps raise awareness of city resources within the community, and operates in the opposite direction, influencing city policy based on community involvement.

I was impressed with Rice's commitment to sharing and distributing power deeper within the community. Elected officials often use their positions to consolidate power for themselves, to make themselves indispensable to the extreme and create something that looks more like a kingdom than a democracy. Rice appears to be doing the opposite, and I was proud to support that effort in a small way last night.

Side note: I also learned that making Sharpe James jokes in Newark is still a bit risky. He has some vocal supporters who let me know my jibes and Marion Barry comparisons were unwelcome. As we often say in the business: too soon.

You can find out more about Ron Rice Jr on his website. (Incidentally, his father is State Senator Ron Rice, whom Booker defeated for mayor in 2006).

Joey Novick, Baratunde Thurston, Ron, Leighann Lord, Scott Blakeman Photo courtesy of Yuri Lev

BOYS BASKETBALL

WOODCREEK 69, NEVADA UNION 54 Nevada Union 18 7 18 11 – 54 Woodcreek 19 18 22 10 – 69 NU–Gandell 4, Biertuempfel 6, Pettinato 8, MacDonald 4, Britton 8, Lee 21, Wilcox 3. W–Geyer 1, Milani 20, Murphy 4, Sondhi 3, Kurtz 8, Milat 16, Anderson 3, Anganes 4, Stathopoulos 10.

KENNEDY 56, DAVIS 48 Kennedy 10 20 13 13 – 56 Davis 13 16 8 11 – 48 K–Saldana 12, McQuillon 2, Aaron 9, Williams 2, Tom 8, Taira 11, West 12. D–McDaniel 2, Raber 2, Barber 8, Carter 5, Hershberger 14, Mohr 11, McPherson 4, Munnell 2.

GALT 52, CHRISTIAN BROTHERS 49 Christian Brothers 8 15 14 12 – 49 Galt 12 22 11 7 – 52 CB–Butler 5, Drozd 4, Steimel 2, Cleveland 4, Brown 5, Lang 6, Wallner 2, Ralph 13, Modeste 8. G–Hanley 4, A. Piggee 3, Dela Cruz 17, H. Piggee 12, Grone 1, Cox 3, Oyewole 5, Gallegos 7.

OAKMONT 76, ROSEVILLE 35 Oakmont 17 16 20 23 – 76 Roseville 11 4 10 10 – 35 O–Hetrick 5, Mobli 6, Serrano 2, Baldwin 6, Jackson 2, Gill 26, Ford 5, Taylor 8, Marten 2, Grady 5, Adenrele 9. R–Magnusson 5, Hack 3, Schwyzer 8, Pulver 8, Agan 5, Lucero 1, Jebelli 3, Chabrier 2.

CENTER 72, COSUMNES OAKS 48 Cosumnes Oaks 17 11 9 11 – 48 Center 16 21 18 17 – 72 CO–Lewis 4, Porlaris 2, Dartis 11, Redmond 10, McLaurin 8, Foster 8, Duke 5. C–Zan 3, Martinez 15, D. Smith 2, Ch. Haysbert 17, C. Smith 2, Co. Haysbert 16, Desmangles 2, Harold 15.

CORDOVA 52, OAK RIDGE 47 Oak Ridge 14 14 4 15 – 47 Cordova 9 17 10 16 – 52 OR–Mendoza 2, Conner 2, McMillen 10, Scott 19, Finley 10, Blakeman 2, Suchan 2. C–Burns 5, Lindsey 6, Kelly 2, Trunyan 3, Bonner 3, Yakimchuk 8, Harris 13, Smith 11, Dupard 1.

DEL ORO 64, GRANITE BAY 61 Granite Bay 17 13 18 13 – 61 Del Oro 20 13 16 15 – 64 GB–Riffice 15, Motsenbosker 8, Key 2, Young 8, Duncan 18, Davis 10. DO–Lewis 14, Broyles 2, Bradley 2, Sutterfield 21, Ruiz 1, Hendricks 6, Russell 6, Root 12.

LAGUNA CREEK 65, ELK GROVE 45 Elk Grove 11 11 11 12 – 45 Laguna Creek 16 19 23 7 – 65 EG–Murphy 2, Jarboe 1, Bocobo 12, Johnson 2, Jain 3, Angel 8, Wong 2, Moore 1, Williams 12, Parker 2. LC–Carvin 12, Hunter 2, Brown 17, Franklin 20, Cornelius 4, Rogers 4, Salabarria 4, Barlow 2.

ANTELOPE 58, RIO LINDA 51 Rio Linda 11 11 16 13 – 51 Antelope 19 18 11 10 – 58 RL–Haskins 4, Flemons 2, Farrow 2, Harmon 4, Thompson 2 Evans 13, Almanza 12, Larson 12. A–Campbell 8, Gordon 9, Taylor 11, Watkins 6, Sinclair 10, King 12, Lidell 2.

ENCINA 72, GOLDEN SIERRA 37 Golden Sierra 11 8 8 10 – 37 Encina 20 24 26 2 – 72 GS–Pollock 5, Heighberger 4, Swatski 1, Bohn 5, Olson 4, Altman 2, Sommer 3, Catlett 6, Thomas 4, Patterson 3. E–Bolsun 13, Avers 8, Hawkins 4, Cheeseman 5, Runnels 4, Nguyen 7, Walubengo 20, Hudson 7, Tyler 4.

FRANKLIN 54, VALLEY 39 Valley 9 7 12 11 – 39 Franklin 13 13 14 14 – 54 V–Bobbit 5, Rigonan 11, Vera 9, Boughton 7, Rowden 4, Hadley 3. F–Mez 12, C. Iroegbu 10, I. Iroegbu 2, T. Johnson 2, King 13, Rosaroso 15.

VISTA DEL LAGO 49, UNION MINE 38 Union Mine 6 10 6 16 – 38 Vista del Lago 5 17 15 12 – 49 UM–Tucker 3, Sarch 1, Palmer 1, Nutting 9, Schwarzberg 10, Roots 4, Newfield 10. VDL–Young 13, Shaw 10, Hatton 11, Lescault 5, White 8, Wishom 2.

FOOTHILL 55, RIVER CITY 37 Foothill 9 16 12 18 – 55 River City 5 8 14 10 – 37 F–Johnson 2, Stanley 16, Hightower 9, Angeles 14, Bryson 7, Chase 4, Cardenas 3. RC–Alvarez 4, Scott 11, Befford 15, Helmand 4, Crayne 3.

HIGHLANDS 72, SAN JUAN 65 Highlands 16 19 18 19 – 72 San Juan 11 23 12 19 – 65 H–Litvinov 8, Nelson 14, Kerez 4, Muhammad 8, Bubier 22, Harvey 16. SJ–Mikaylyan 21, Kinda 2, Polezhako 10, Ball 9, Lup 12, Stroughter 11.

DIXON 60, WEST CAMPUS 35 Dixon 8 18 18 16 – 60 West Campus 8 9 5 13 – 35 D–Moraes 8, Aubert 7, Norton 10, Cauchi 2, Retterman 6, Hendrix 2, Cook 6, Garcia 2, Hollowell 7, Mitchell 8, Ferguson 2. WC–Cosley 4, Amante 2, Lemon 3, Yoshieuka 2, Shintaku 4, Eldridge 1, Harvey 7, Wong 2, Pealer 2, Cohen 8.

YUBA CITY 77, WOODLAND 42 Woodland 4 15 17 6 – 42 Yuba City 20 25 22 10 – 77 W–Turner 12, Geerts 11, Castaneda 9, Moore 4, McKenzie 4, Towne 2. YC–Garcia 5, Triphan 12, Hayes 6, Filter 5, Chima 9, Presswood 10, Nelson 16, Au 2, Coxe 4, Lewis 8.

GIRLS BASKETBALL

WHITNEY 51, BEAR RIVER 46 Whitney 14 13 6 18 – 51 Bear River 10 15 15 6 – 46 W–Melton 5, Lynch 9, Yarbrough 2, Fahey 8, Ladas 11, Rodriguez 16. BR–Uno 16, Gurra 6, Smith 3, Person 11, Meylor 5, Harter 5.

COLFAX 51, LINCOLN 38 Colfax 11 17 15 8 – 51 Lincoln 14 9 8 7 – 38 C–Capuchino 14, Campbell 10, Heikila 1, Walker 11, Biles 7, Lewis 8. L–Sharp 4, Kossow 3, Yepez 4, Everts 2, Leedy 17, Lathrop 8.

RIO AMERICANO 49, CASA ROBLE 46 Casa Roble 14 12 12 8 – 46 Rio Americano 9 15 15 10 – 49 CR–Baer 4, Roth 3, Waller 5, Villarman 7, Muses 20, Hawkins 7. RA–Louther 3, Taylor 11, Moulton 2, Stewart 26, Maxwell 7.

SACRAMENTO 52, MCCLATCHY 49 McClatchy 8 15 16 10 – 49 Sacramento 15 11 15 11 – 52 M–Tsumuura 3, Bedford 6, Thomas 17, Hamamoto 2, Engbritson 6, Wada 9, Otta 6. S–Hilliard 9, Williams 5, Douglas 4, Salinas 8, Ware 2, Cook 3, Shine 8, Dunn 13.

BOYS GOLF

JESUIT 191, EL CAMINO 212 9 holes at Ancil Hoffman, par 36 Low scorers: Skreden, J, 36; Crowther, EC, 36; Macasaet, J, 37.

DEL ORO 208, PONDEROSA 209 9 holes at Cameron Park, par 36 Low scorers: Trosimczyk, P, 38; Pereira, P, 38; Ash, DO, 39.

Work in the sunshine with other like-minded individuals this summer.
Secure a good summer job now before all of the good ones are taken.

I will be getting a lot of houses painted this summer and need reliable people who are ready to work hard and make good money. If you are hired as a painter or production manager, you will always get enough hours and be paid on time.

PAINTER POSITION

No experience necessary, we will train you!

The ideal candidate for this position is a college student who wants to work outdoors, who has a good attitude about hard work and is self-motivated. This job involves scraping and sanding old paint off of siding, masking windows, moving and using ladders, and carefully painting siding and trim.

Painters must be able to work 35+ hours per week and be available for occasional weekends when weather doesn’t allow work to get done during the week.

Painters will also be required to help with door to door marketing during the week in the spring.
This is so that we can get to know each other and the area we will be working in.

Compensation: $9-12/hour

PRODUCTION MANAGER POSITION:

Leadership experience is highly valued, but no painting experience is necessary.

This can be a very lucrative summer job for the right candidate. Production Managers make $9.50+ per hour plus a summer-end bonus of up to $2000. The ideal candidate works well with others, has leadership experience, is good with customers, can follow direction and plan effectively, can be in charge of a team of painters and make sure things are getting done.
Mangers will also be required to help with marketing during the week in the spring.

Must be able to work 35+ hours per week, as well as leading marketing efforts (after being trained) every week.

To find out more about either of these positions, email Jared at jaredblakeman@gmail.com and leave a resume and a number to contact you with.

Don’t wait until summer to get your summer job – the good jobs get filled now!

Studentpainters.net


Compensation: Painter starting at $9 with possible raises. Production Manager $9.50 + bonuses

Several local chairmen of the state Republican Party got together last night and endorsed Bruce Blakeman for the 2010 Senate race. But the state chairman, Ed Cox, says the Party is still open to ...

After four Republican leaders endorsed Bruce Blakeman as their Senate candidate, State Chairman Ed Cox said that he was encouraging other candidates to run. “There are other candidates coming down, there will be endorsements, there will be screenings, so we’ve got a little way to go before the convention when the final selection will be made,” [...]

Thursday night I'm going to be in Newark, watching some great comedians - political & otherwise - help send my friend Ron C. Rice back to work for a 2nd term at the Newark Council, where he reps the West Ward. The last comedian, Baratunde Thurston, just clicked into place, and some amazing people are giving their time to power Ron's campaign.

This is all very inside for me. See, I help run Democracy for America - NJ, and Ron was the very first NJ candidate nationally endorsed by DFA. Ron's a founding member of Essex DFA; he was their candidate. He's solid grassroots. And Ron's a member of the Blue Jersey community.

It's also inside for me because a lot of this show was put together at my house. Joey Novick put it together with Vin Gopal, for Ron. And Joey's hosting. Show's almost sold out, and it's a wallet-friendly $25 for Ron's campaign, so in case you can still score a ticket, here's who's coming:

Baratunde Thurston is the Politics & Web Editor at The Onion, and a blogger/founder of Jack & Jill Politics (he's Jack). He also writes for Huffington Post and does, frankly, too many cool things to list.

Leighann Lord was named Most Thought-Provoking Black Female Comic and got an NYC Black Comedy Award for that. Like the rest of this show, she's scary-smart and has performed in clubs around the world, and for our troops in the Middle East.

Scott Blakeman is a political comedian who founded Standup for Peace: the 2 Comedian Solution to Middle East Peace, with Palestinian-American comedian Dean Obeidallah, and he gets people thinking as hard as they're laughing. He's also a regular on NPR.

Joey Novick is hosting, and he teaches improv, writes here sometimes and politickernj all the time.

Listen, Ron is a progressive. A class act. Pro-equality, including marriage equality. Community activist before he ever wore a suit. Used his Newark Council  seat to organize the pro-active West Ward Collective. Veteran of night patrols & efforts helping residents take control of their neighborhoods.

Show is Thursday night in Newark, 7pm. Here's the facebook page, all the details. Look for me; I'll be hanging with the comedians.

More on Ron, and how to volunteer for him.  

Leaders of the Albany, Saratoga and Montgomery county Republican committees will meet tonight to endorse Bruce Blakeman for U.S. Senate and Harry Wilson for comptroller. Both candidates have visited the capital city. The endorsement – Wilson’s first – come relatively early in the political process. I asked Albany County Republican Chairman John Graziano whether he shutting [...]

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) is drawing political fire for her plan to attend a panel discussion with former Obama administration official Van Jones next month.

Bruce Blakeman, currently Gillibrand's lone GOP opponent for re-election in 2010, has used the Senator's decision to appear at the same event as the former White House staffer as proof that she is "pandering to the left-wing fringe of her party," he told Fox News.

"She shouldn't be meeting with him. She shouldn't be sharing the same platform with him. And I think it just proves she's out of touch with most New Yorkers," Blakeman continued.

Jones left his administration position as special adviser on green jobs in September after it was uncovered that he signed a petition showing support for "9/11 truther" fringe conspiracies, which maintain that the Bush Administration had an inside roll in the 9/11 attacks. The petition called for an investigation to examine evidence that "people within the current administration may indeed have deliberately allowed 9/11 to happen, perhaps as a pretext for war."

Gillibrand spokesman Glen Caplin defended the senator's decision to appear with Jones.

"The discussion is about job creation -- Senator Gillibrand's number one priority. Van Jones is a national expert on creating good-paying jobs in emerging renewable energy markets," Caplin said in a statement.

A. Blakeman “Blake’’ Early, 64, an environmental lawyer and activist who played a key role in passing several of the nation’s major environmental laws spanning four decades, died Feb. 7 at his home in Alexandria, Va. He had cancer.

A. Blakeman “Blake’’ Early, 64, an environmental lawyer and activist who played a key role in passing several of the nation’s major environmental laws spanning four decades, died Feb. 7 at his home in Alexandria, Va. He had cancer.

A. Blakeman "Blake" Early, 64, an environmental lawyer and activist who played a key role in passing several of the nation's major environmental laws spanning four decades, died Feb. 7 at his home in Alexandria. He had cancer.

Filed under: Down the Front!

Location: St Mary's Square, Gateshead Quays, Gateshead, Tyne and Wear NE8 2JR

Website: http://www.thesagegateshead.org

Capacity: 1,700 in the main hall.

Come to see: To cast an eye over the last few months' concerts at one of northern England's most impressive music venues is to get a pretty fair idea of the eclectic nature of this ambitious, modern arts complex. Richard Hawley, Jack Penate, Beverley Knight, David Gray, the Futureheads and Elbow have all passed through the Sage in recent times, confirming it as an important stop on the UK tour map for any established band. The Sage, however, is most sympathetic to the nation's folk reawakening. It has a clear emphasis on traditional artists such as locals Rachel Unthank and the Winterset, Jim Moray, Eliza Carthy and Seth Lakeman, all of whom are more or less regulars on the the Sage's stage. The venue also hosts its own folk festivals, workshops and forums, while the icing on the cake as far as diversity is concerned must be the world music programming, as well as the fact it is the home of the Northern Sinfonia.

Ros Rigby, Performance Programme Directer, says, "For me personally, the best concerts have been Randy Newman, Ry Cooder and Nick Lowe, David Byrne and Guy Barker with the Northern Sinfonia."

Boze spaarders hebben een claim van 200 tot 250 miljoen euro ingediend bij De Nederlandsche Bank en het ministerie van Financiën. Dat zegt Adriaan Dorrepaal op RTL Z, hij vertegenwoordigt spaarders van de DSB Bank. Toen Pieter Lakeman spaarders opriep hun geld bij de bank weg te halen, wekte DNB volgens Dorrepaal de indruk dat de bank financieel gezond was. Ook minister van Financiën Wouter Bos (PvdA) probeerde de zaak te sussen. Pure misleiding, vindt Dorrepaal. DNB wist weken voor de oproep van Lakeman al dat het goed mis was bij de bank.

GOP Senate hopeful Bruce Blakeman has fired a shot at Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, criticizing her for saying she wants to withhold funding for enforcement of the military’s “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” policy regarding gays in the military. Gillibrand, who continues to reach out to New York City voters who may still remember that she was an [...]

By: Bradley A. Blakeman

Without the ingenuity of America’s brightest minds and the investment of U.S. taxpayer dollars, there would be no Internet, as we now know it today.

Now, the Obama administration has moved quietly to cede control of the Web from the United States to foreign powers.

LINK TO ORIGINAL

table { border:0px; } td{ border-left:2px solid grey; }

I confess I do not know enough about this to make a comment. If anyone has more info, please post it or send it in to us. Thanks. ABN

After yet another one-night "Election Night" hiatus, the Wrap returns, filled to the brim with numbers and news...

THE U.S. SENATE

AZ-Sen: Dueling Internals In the Hot GOP Primary
It is a regular internal poll-a-palooza in the Wrap tonight. In addition to a Mark Kirk internal (more on this one later), both players in the hot Arizona Republican Senate primary released internal polls over the last few days. The incumbent, Senator John McCain claims a twenty-nine point lead for the incumbent (59-30), while the challenger (former Congressman J.D. Hayworth) claims the lead is only sixteen points (49-33). The one thing that becomes pretty evident: it would seem that Rasmussen's late '09 poll showing a race within the margin of error seems to have missed the fairway, since it is hard to find a clear event or incident during the holidays that would send GOP voters scurrying back to McCain (and, no, I tend to doubt the warm embrace of Sarah Palin would provide a 20-point swing).

AR-Sen: New Poll, More Trauma For Blanche Lincoln
Coming on the heels of Monday's devastating PPP poll (PDF) showing her down double-digits to all GOP comers, Rasmussen came out the following day and confirmed the numbers. Lincoln trails by margins ranging from 14-19 points, with the five GOP candidates all holding 50% or more in trial heats.

IL-Sen: Kirk Does Not Take Long To Flog Internal Polling
That was quick! The confetti hadn't even been swept up from the victory parties in last night's Illinois primaries when newly minted GOP nominee Mark Kirk began hyping an internal poll claiming a double digit lead over Democrat Alexi Giannoulias (47-35). Monster grain of salt: the poll claims that Obama's approval spread in his home state is 51/45.

IN-Sen: GOP Blasts To The Past for A First-Tier Candidate
This one caught everyone absolutely flat-footed. While all eyes were on the returns from Illinois, the news broke that former U.S. Senator Dan Coats, whose 1998 Senate retirement paved the way for Evan Bayh's election, would now challenge Bayh for re-election this year. There are, of course, a couple of complications for Coats. One is that he has lived in Virginia for years. The other is that he is going to have to play fundraising catch-up, and fast. Bayh is sitting on one of the biggest warchests in the Congress, with over $ 13 million in the kitty.

KS-Sen: GOP Primary Gets Ugly Amid New Polling Data
The mini "Clash of the Titans" primary in Kansas to replace outgoing Senator Sam Brownback is getting a little personal. Congressman Todd Tiahrt is blasting fellow GOP Congressman Jerry Moran, claiming that Moran is "attacking" Tiahrt's family. The accusation is more than a little bit of a stretch. Moran's actual attack was on Tihart living in northern Virginia, rather than maintaining his primary home in Kansas. Tiahrt turned that into a personal affront by arguing that since he moved his family to Virginia in order to keep the family together while he served in Congress, Moran was attacking his family values. Meanwhile, SUSA continued their semi-regular practice of polling the race, and they find Moran leading Tiahrt by seven points (40-33). That marks an improvement for Moran, who only led Tiahrt by three points a few months back.

MD-Sen: Former GOP State Legislator Gunning For Mikulski
The third Republican to confirm as a candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010 is also, arguably, the most viable candidate. Carmen Amedori, a former state delegate, announced earlier this week that she will challenge longtime Sen. Barbara Mikulski. It will be, to put it charitably, an uphill slog: Mikulski has never been held under 60% of the vote since first getting elected to the Senate in 1986.

NY-Sen: Q Poll Gives Gillibrand Primary and General Leads
In the latest of a minor flurry of polls out of the Empire State, freshman Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has sizeable leads in both the primary and general elections, according to new numbers from Quinnipiac. In the primary, Gillibrand leads Harold Ford 36-18, with Jonathan Tasini well behind at 4%. In the general, Gillibrand had a huge lead over the only declared GOP candidate, Bruce Blakeman (44-27). Undecided is the big winner in a contest with Ford and Blakeman, with Ford leading 35-26. Meanwhile, another Republican might be getting into the game, with the news that former Congressman and perennial candidate Joe DioGuardi is thinking about getting into the race. DioGuardi, 69, served in Congress for two terms way back in the 1980s, and is a favorite of the Conservative and Right To Life Parties.

ND-Sen: Dems Have A Candidate, But Not Their Favored Candidate (Yet)
While North Dakota Democrats wait patiently for Heidi Heitkamp to make a decision to jump into the open Senate race, they managed to land a pretty decent fallback position. State Senator Tracy Potter will announce a candidacy this week. Potter would be the first Democrat of note to challenge the seat, a challenge which will include the arduous task of trying to knock off incumbent Governor John Hoeven, who has already announced a Senate bid.

WI-Sen: Did Thompson Just Tip His Hand?
Despite the best hopes of Republicans, and the best efforts of Rasmussen (who curiously polled the race last week), it looks less and less likely that former Governor Tommy Thompson will not be challenging Democratic Senator Russ Feingold. Thompson just signed on to serve as a venture capital advisor for Peak Ridge Capital Group. Working in that particular capacity, it would seem, will preclude Thompson for running for office at the same time (and politically speaking, probably wouldn't be the most bankable side job to grab for a prospective candidate).

THE U.S. HOUSE

CA-12: Speier Decides To Stay In House, After All
After a boomlet of stories that rookie Congressman Jackie Speier was eyeing the job of California Attorney General, Speier finally pulled the plug on such speculation by announcing that she would, in fact, run for re-election. Speier took office in early 2008 upon the death of longtime Democratic Congressman Tom Lantos.

CT-02: Is Simmons About To Pull A Gerlach?
This could get very interesting. A definite hedge by former Congressman Rob Simmons has some folks speculating that he will walk from the Senate race (where his chances of winning dropped precipitously with the Dodd exit) and run instead in his old Congressional district. Simmons was run from office narrowly in 2006 by current Democratic incumbent Joe Courtney.

FL-08: A Lot of GOP Movement This Week In Grayson Seat
A lot of dominoes have fallen since the last edition of the Wrap in central Florida's 8th district, the home of Democratic freshman Alan Grayson. Bruce O'Donoghue, who spurned the NRCC late last year, had a change of heart and elected to run against Grayson. Well-funded young Republican Armando Gutierrez, meanwhile, went the other direction, dropping his bid. O'Donoghue might have come a little late to the party, however, as a couple of prominent GOPers have rallied around the other main Republican in the field, state legislator Kurt Kelly.

FL-19: Parties Choose Candidates For Special Election
The general election field is now full in South Florida, as an April special election will fill the seat once occupied by Robert Wexler. It looks like Democrat Ted Deutch (who won his primary easily) will take on Republican Ed Lynch (who won his primary barely). The district is heavily Democratic, having gone for Barack Obama and John Kerry by identical lopsided margins (66-34).

NJ-07: Democrats Land Candidate Against GOP Freshman
One somewhat vulnerable GOP freshman that has largely escaped scrutiny from the Democratic Party in this cycle has been New Jersey rookie Rep. Leonard Lance. That changed this week with the announcement that former Hill Staffer Ed Potosnak will enter the race on the Democratic side. Lance scored a surprisingly wide victory in 2008 over Linda Stender in order to hold the seat once held by Rep. Mike Ferguson.

RACE FOR THE HOUSE: SSP Looks At Who Is At Risk
Finally, in House news, a feature over at Swing State Project that is very much worth worth a read. Crisitunity over at SSP had done his third edition of the "House Vulnerability Index", which seeks to quantify which Democratic and Republican House seats are in the gravest danger. If you are a horserace junkie, it is very much worth checking out.

THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES

IL-Gov: The Numbers Are (Somewhat) Officially In!
The marathon primaries for the gubernatorial nominations in Illinois are finally over, with the last handful of precincts reporting this afternoon from Cook County. In a unique twist, both races were close enough to ensure that every last precinct needed to be in the mix. On the Democratic side, incumbent Governor Pat Quinn hung onto an 8000 vote victory over state Comptroller Dan Hynes. While President Obama called Quinn to offer congratulations, Hynes had not conceded as of earlier this evening. Meanwhile, a recount is all but certain on the Republican side, where state Senator Bill Brady scored a mild upset by apparently defeating a crowded field for the nomination. The margin over state Senator Kirk Dillard, out of around 750,000 voters, was a mere 406 votes.

MN-Gov: Some Party Decision Making Going On In Minny, As Well
In a decision-making process that is a bit more circuitous than that of Illinois, Minnesota voters headed out to caucus last night. On the Democratic side, the results have a bit less meaning, since one of the frontrunners (former Senator Mark Dayton) eschewed the process. That said, Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak holds a two-point lead on the DFL (Democratic-Farmer-Labor) side over Margaret Anderson-Kelliher. On the GOP side, it was a pretty clear win for state legislator Marty Seifert, as he beat fellow legislator Tom Emmer by double digits. Side note--if you are wondering why I used the word "lead" rather than "win" for the Democratic caucuses, the reason is simple--somehow, the Secretary of State is reporting that only 82% of Democratic caucuses have reported their totals, even though the caucuses were last night.

NY-Gov: Cuomo Up Big In Primary and General Elections
The Quinnipiac poll alluded to in the Senate section also surveyed the landscape of the governor's race. The results are predictable: state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo leads easily in both the primary and general elections. In the primary, Cuomo's lead over incumbent Governor David Paterson sits at just a shade over 30 points (55-23). His lead over presumptive GOP nominee Rick Lazio is an identical margin (57-25). Lazio and Paterson are deadlocked, with Lazio leading by a point (40-39).

TX-Gov: Ras Poll Says GOP Runoff Possible, As Is Close General Elex
An interesting set of numbers out from Rasmussen today in the Lone Star State. In the much anticipated GOP primary for Governor, an ascending teabagger challenge from Debra Medina has made it increasingly likely that the GOP nomination will have to be settled by runoff. Incumbent Governor Rick Perry leads with 44%, with Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison (29%) and Medina (16%) trailing behind. Also, in interesting news, Democrat Bill White is now making up a little ground on the GOP frontrunner. In a general election poll of the same race, Perry only leads White by nine points (48-39). Hutchison does a little bit better (49-36), while Medina does considerably worse (41-38).

Following up on last night's Illinois primary, Republican nominee Mark Kirk releases an internal poll showing up ahead by 12% against Democratic nominee Alexis Giannoulias:

Magellan Strategies for Mark Kirk (R)
2/2/10; 885 likely voters, 3.3% margin of error
Kirk: 47%
Giannoulias: 35%

Now, because this is an internal poll, and was conducted on only one night, many people will be prone to doubt it.  However, this is the first poll to be released since the banking scandal around Giannoulias broke, making it entirely possible that the campaign has changed dramtically.  Further, Charles Franklin has previous noted that internal polls favor the candidate who purchased them by an average of 5%.  Even with that deviation in mind, it would not be surprising in the slightest that Giannoulias has taken a huge hit with the general voting population as a result of the scandal.

While we should wait for more polls to draw any conclusions, this seems to suggest the worst fears of those who thought Giannoulias became a severely damaged candidate from the banking scandal were warranted.  Now, Illinois is up from grabs, threatening to become a second Massachusetts.

Also, it had previously escaped my notice that there is an Indiana poll featuring Evan Bayh versus an announced Republican candidate, John Hostettler.  That poll shows Bayh leading by only 3%, 44%-41%.  No word on what polling will look like with newly announced Republican Dan Coates in the campaign.

With both the Indiana and Illinois polls in mind, here is a sidecar update to yesterday's the Senate forecast:

Senate sidecar update, February 3rd

State	Democrat	Republican	Margin	Dem Win %
New York	Gillibrand	Blakeman	D 19.5	100%
Indiana	Bayh	Hostettler	D 3.0	83%
Illinois	Giannoulias	Kirk	R 0.3	45%

The New York campaign is included in this chart, but will not appear in the overall forecast because it is not quite close enough (I only forecast campaigns where the incumbent part leads by less than 18.50%).

Senate forecast overview

	Democrats*	Republicans
Not up for election	41	23
Currently safe	8	12
Sub-total	49	35
Current polling	3.93	12.07
Projected total	53	47

* = Because they caucus with Senate Democrats, Independents Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman are considered Democrats

This sidecar update drops Democrats down to a projected 53 seats after 2010, equaling their lowest point in the forecast.  It also opens the door, ever so slightly, to the prospect of Republicans actually taking control of the Senate after 2010.  With only 49 safe Democrats seats, and with big potential Republican recruits still possible in Wisconsin (Tommy Thompson) and New York (George Pataki), Republicans may yet control the Senate in 2011-2012.  Even Washington State may yet enter the realm of competitive campaigns, depending on Republican recruiting there.

by Emily Swanson

Quinnipiac
1/27-2/1/10; 2,182 registered voters, 2.1% margin of error
921 Democrats, 3.2% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Quinnipiac release)

New York

2010 Governor: Democratic Primary
55% Cuomo, 23% Paterson (chart)

2010 Senate: Democratic Primary (trends)
36% Gillibrand, 18% Ford, 4% Tasini

2010 Governor
40% Lazio, 39% Paterson (chart)
57% Cuomo, 25% Lazio (chart)

2010 Senate (trends)
44% Gillibrand, 27% Blakeman
35% Ford, 26% Blakeman

Favorable / Unfavorable
Andrew Cuomo: 54 / 16
David Paterson: 34 / 49 (chart)
Rick Lazio: 20 / 15
Kirsten Gillibrand: 33 / 22
Harold Ford: 16 / 13
Bruce Blakeman: 11 / 4

Job Approval / Disapproval
Gov. Paterson: 37 / 54 (chart)
Sen. Gillibrand: 42 / 28 (chart)
Sen. Schumer: 58 / 30 (chart)
Pres. Obama: 57 / 38 (chart)