The Federal Government takes its advice on climate policy from Professor Ross Garnaut, but according to Senator Nick Minchin, Professor Garnaut has no authority on this matter because he is an economist and not a climate scientist.

Professor Tim Flannery has been appointed Climate Change Commissioner, but Senator Barnaby Joyce has questioned his credentials for the job because Professor Flannery’s PhD is in palaeontology (Q & A, ABC TV, February 21, 2011).

Cardinal George Pell rejects anthropogenic climate change, and has contrasted his own contribution to the debate with the ‘unscientific’ remarks of Dr Greg Ayers, an atmospheric chemist who heads the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. In the light of all this, how can the well-intentioned voter determine who speaks with the authority of science?

The traditional answer has been to ask the institutions of science. The Australian Academy of Science, CSIRO, and professional societies such as the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (AMOS), all have good claims to speak for science. The orthodox view of climate change was produced in this way - by consulting the scientific community through its institutions. But this approach to defining sound science is apparently no longer enough. Respected public figures now argue that the scientific consensus is not based on sound science.

Perhaps we can determine what sound science is by reflecting on the scientific method. If Senator Minchin or Cardinal Pell’s beliefs are more scientific than those of climate scientists, this must be because their sources used the scientific method, and the climate scientists did not. The study of scientific method is the traditional task of the philosophy of science. The most famous philosopher of science is undoubtedly Sir Karl Popper, who denounced psychoanalysis, astrology and many others fields as ‘pseudoscience’. According to Popper, a theory is only scientific it if can be falsified by observation and experiment. Popper’s simple test is not adequate - major scientific theories are complex and can rarely be conclusively tested by one or even a few experiments - but efforts to distinguish sound from unsound science continue.

Ideas about scientific method clearly play a role in the climate-change debate. Cardinal Pell called for debate to be based on ‘scientific facts’, but in our experience the invocation of ‘facts’ usually signals confusion about how science works. In one sense the ‘facts’ are the data - the specific observations that scientists make. But all data contains errors, and data usually consists of estimates of greater or lesser accuracy. When the data do not fit a well-established theory, it is often because the data are wrong. Every undergraduate laboratory class produces data inconsistent with current theory, and these data are rightly ignored. In another, more profound sense, the ‘facts’ of science are well-established theories, tested in many different ways, and now closely woven into the fabric of science. But all scientific theories are open to revision and improvement.

The fact that much climate science is based on models rather than direct observation arouses many people’s suspicions. But models are an essential part of science. Scientific idealisation - simplifying the details to get a mathematically and experimentally workable model - is how science deals with complexity. Models, like science in general, are fallible and sometimes give the wrong answers. That is not news, and it is most definitely not a reason for scepticism. Climate models are not a substitute for ‘facts’, invented to firm up the case for anthropogenic climate change. Modelling is an essential part of the scientific method.

We have long past the point at which society can function smoothly while believing whatever is politically expedient about scientific questions. Our collective future depends on voters getting, and believing, the best information that science can offer. That includes recognising and dealing with scientific uncertainty. The right attitude to science is captured in the title of eminent chemist Theodore Brown’s book Imperfect Oracle: The Epistemic and Moral Authority of Science. Science is the only oracle we have. We need to learn to live with its imperfections and listen to what it tells us. Dwelling on those imperfections in order to silence science is the road to ruin.

The issue of the authority of science will be the subject of a free, public Roundtable discussion in the New Law School Foyer, University of Sydney from 5-7pm on Friday April 8, as part of an international academic conference on this question hosted by the Sydney Centre for the Foundations of Science at the University of Sydney.

Professors Paul Griffiths and Mark Colyvan are philosophers of science at the University of Sydney.

• Read all responses to this article

With Google now predicting as you type, I thought it would be interesting to see what comes up after one letter. This is for an Australian search, I am having a guess when I say that I think that it would be based on traffic to these websites as opposed to SEO (I looked at Google Insights on search traffic but that did not support the findings). It is interesting to see that Lasoo got up there for the letter 'L' it would suggest that you should probably look for a starting letter with not much competition if you were choosing a brand name which obviously would have low awareness.

A - ANZ
B -BOM Bureau of Meteorology
C- Centrelink
D-Domain
E-Ebay
F-Facebook
G-Google
H-Hotmail
I-iTunes
J -Jetstar
K-Kmart
L-Lasoo
M- Myer
N-Netbank (Commonwealth Bank)
O - Optus
P-Paypal
Q-Qantas
R-RTA (Road and Traffic Authority)
S-Seek
T-TPG
U-UAC - University Admission Centre
V-Virgin Blue
W-White Pages
X-xe
Y-Youtube
Z -Zmail - UNSW Email

December 24, 2010

Meteorologists have predicted that this year’s Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race will be a “classic” with conditions forecast to be rough all the way south to Hobart — one of the signatures of this challenging international offshore yacht race. The adverse weather means that yachts will not necessarily attempt to break records, they will just try to keep from suffering any breakdowns in the predicted tumultuous seas and high winds. Almost all participants have indicated that just getting to Hobart will be their main goal.

At this morning’s official race briefing at the Cruising Yacht Club of Australia – compulsory for each boat entered – the Bureau of Meteorology provided a race outlook to skippers and crews, telling them that they should prepare for tough conditions. Michael Logan from the Bureau said, “Things will change very dramatically on Monday evening with the arrival of an old fashioned southerly buster off the New South Wales coast.”

For those without local knowledge, the southerly buster is a phenomena caused by the east Australian current running at one to two knots against the southerly breeze, very quickly resulting in a confused sea state and big waves.

Logan continued, “There is a 20-30 knot southerly wind expected to be around Wollongong at 8pm [on the first night] and that will herald a period of strong winds and rough seas for the next 36 hours or so.”

The notorious Bass Strait – where cold wind from the Southern Ocean meets the warm water and air of the Tasman Sea – should be in full force when the front-runners approach on Monday. Conditions should temper by Tuesday, which would slow the boats at the back of the fleet, potentially taking away their chance to be rewarded for the hard slog south, once finishing times are corrected to produce the overall winner.

Conditions aside, this year’s race, like nearly all before, sees a wide range of international yachts and sailors joining the offshore challenge. One such participant is world-famous yachtsman Sir Robin Knox-Johnston. In 1969, he became the first man to complete a single-handed non-stop circumnavigation of the globe, doing so in his 32-foot (9.8-meter) boat Suhaili.

Surprisingly, this will be Sir Robin’s first Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race. He revealed, “It’s one of the major races that I haven’t competed in and I’ve always wanted to do it. I mean, after all, the Rolex Sydney Hobart is one of the world’s toughest and well-known classic yacht races.”

Knox-Johnston thinks he and his crew aboard the British registered Swan 68 Titiania of Cowes definitely have a challenge on their hands. The salty, grey bearded sailor explained, “We’re a cruising boat, not a racing boat. If the winds are favorable to our type of vessel we’ll do well. If the winds are against us, it will be hard going.”

When asked how old he was, Sir Robin gave a smile and asked, “You mean how young am I?” About whether age is a problem, the 71-year old added, “No, not at all— age is all in the mind. Besides, I keep fit. I love the challenge. Remember, it was only four years ago that I sailed around the world.” (In 2006 he became, at 67, the oldest yachtsman to complete a round-the-world solo voyage in the VELUX 5 Oceans Race.)

Another international team joining the 66th edition of the Rolex Sydney Hobart are the father and son team Bill and Will Hubbard. Bill Hubbard’s son, Will, sailed their Baltic 46 Dawn Star from San Diego last February to be in Sydney for the race. This will be the first Rolex Sydney Hobart for the pair.

The American sailing duo has always wanted to compete in the Rolex Sydney Hobart. Bill said, “There are a couple of reasons. My grandfather was Australian and we have a number of relatives here. Over the last ten years we’ve competed in a number of world-class races, including the Rolex Transatlantic Challenge and the Newport Bermuda Race, and have done well. The Rolex Sydney Hobart was a natural and we thought we must add this race. It’s one of the premier, if not the premier, rough ocean passage races of the circuit. We thought, what the heck, let’s do it.”

Asked if the weather conditions predicted for this race are a cause for concern the younger Hubbard said, “It doesn’t worry me too much.” With a slightly worried look in his face, Will’s 76-year-old father added, “I’ll fare less well than him.” The 26 year-old Will continued, “And the boat will fare better than all of us. Dawn Star is built to a standard that has been long forgotten. She’s probably stronger than 90 percent of the fleet out here. She’ll look after us better that most boats would. Don’t worry, we’ll get there.”

Another international racing team joining this year’s race is the Russian entry Vamp (Corby 49), which sees an unlikely alliance in champion Australian offshore yachtsman Roger Hickman and well-known Russian International Dragon sailor Mikhail (Misha) Muratov. This will be Hickman’s 34th Sydney Hobart while it will be Muratov’s first.

The two sailors met while racing Dragons in Europe and became close friends. When Hickman announced he was participating in this year’s race he invited Misha to join him. Muratov explained, “As an ocean sailor, the Rolex Sydney Hobart is one of the world’s most well-known races. I had to do it. To bring your own boat from Europe to Australia is not cost effective and takes a long time. By teaming up with Roger, he offered us a turnkey solution that would allow us to participate in this race.”

Hickman said about the conditions, “Even though I’ve done 33 races so far, I haven’t seen all the conditions, just the ones I’ve been in.” He continued, “One of the sayings the yachties’ have is ‘to win the Rolex race to Hobart, first you have to get there.’ It sounds like a silly statement, but this race is so tough that just getting there is an achievement, let alone winning it.”

While the Rolex Sydney Hobart has an international appeal it is not easy to forget that this is an Australian event. Most punters are betting on the Australian maxi yacht and four-time winner Wild Oats XI as a good bet for Line Honours, because of her seasoned, professional crew.

One of those experienced crew aboard the 30-metre maxi is Adrienne Cahalan, professional sailor and veteran of 18 previous Rolex Sydney Hobart races. The internationally acclaimed ocean-racing navigator, Australian Yachtswoman of the Year 2004-2005 and mother of two, is one of the most experienced and qualified sailors in this race. She sees this Rolex Sydney Hobart as, “definitely a big challenge.”

When asked what it is like to be one of only two women aboard Wild Oats XI’s crew of 17 she said, “Oh, we all have our jobs. I don’t do much heavy lifting but take care of navigation and the electronics; we all get along really well. We’re a well-oiled team.”

Asked if she’s worried about the squalls, giant waves and high winds, that have been forecast for this year’s race, Cahalan explained, “To be honest, yes. It can be a little terrifying at times, but still I’m looking forward to the race. While we won’t be trying to break any records, we will be trying to keep the boat in one piece during our race south.”

Three boats have retired, Wild Rose, Sassy and Pappilon, bringing the total of entries to 87 yachts that will be on the start line in Sydney Harbour at 1300 AEDT, on 26 December 2010. The Rolex Sydney Hobart fleet will include six international entries from the USA, UK, Italy, France, as well as two partly-crewed Russian boats and entries from seven of the eight Australian states and territories.


Official race website
To view the complete list of entries go to www.rolexsydneyhobart.com

SYDNEY (Reuters) - The strongest La Nina weather event in nearly half a century, resulting in heavy rains and flooding which has damaged crops and flooded mines in Australia and Asia, may be at its peak, the Australian weather bureau said.

"Long-range models surveyed by the bureau suggest that this La Nina event may be at its peak and will persist through the southern hemisphere summer," the Bureau of Meteorology said in its weekly tropical climate note on Tuesday.

[More]

John Baez

I'd like to take a break from interviews and say a bit about climate physics. It's a complicated subject, and I'm just starting to learn it, and I'm not even sure this is the direction I should be going in my quest to help "save the planet". But it's interesting.

Last week, Tim Palmer mentioned a book he helped edit, on stochastic physics and climate modelling. I've actually been reading it for several months, so now I'd like to talk about some papers in it. I'll start with these:

• Geoffrey K. Vallis, Mechanisms of climate variability from years to decades, in Stochastic Physics and Climate Modelling, eds. Palmer and Williams, Cambridge U. Press, Cambridge, 2010, pp. 1-31.
• Richard Kleeman, Stochastic theories for the irregularity of the ENSO, in Stochastic Physics and Climate Modelling, eds. Tim Palmer and Paul Williams, Cambridge U. Press, Cambridge, 2010, pp. 248-286.
• Leela M. Frankcombe, Henk A. Dijkstra and Anna S. von Der Heyt, The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation: a stochastic dynamical systems view, in Stochastic Physics and Climate Modelling, eds. Tim Palmer and Paul Williams, Cambridge U. Press, Cambridge, 2010, pp. 287-306.

It's easy to understand why there are annual cycles in every aspect about the Earth's weather, but variations at longer time scales are more tricky to understand. That's what Vallis' paper is about. Some of these variations are cyclic, and the other two papers focus on these:

• The El Niño/Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, which happens in the tropical Pacific Ocean every 3 to 7 years.
• The Atlantic Meridional Oscillation, or AMO, which seems to happen every 70 years — though only two full periods have been observed!

Today I'll describe the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, and next time I'll get into more of the mathematics.

I hadn't originally planned to get into so much detail on the El Niño, but this cycle is a big deal in southern California. Where I live, in the city of Riverside, it's very dry. As I like to say, there's a lot less "river" than "side". It almost never ever rains between March and December. Sometimes, during a "La Niña", it doesn't even rain in the winter! But then sometimes we have an "El Niño" and get huge floods in the winter. At this point, the tiny stream that gives my city its name swells to a huge river. The difference is very dramatic.

So, I've always wanted to understand how the El Niño cycle works — but whenever I tried to read an explanation, I couldn't follow it! For starters, most people are bad at explaining stuff: they skip steps, use jargon they haven't defined, and so on. But climate cycles are even harder to explain than most things. For one thing, there's a lot about them we don't understand. But also, they involve a kind of "cyclic causality" that's tough to mentally process.

At least where I come from, people find it easy to understand linear chains of causality, like "A causes B, which causes C". For example: why is the king's throne made of gold? Because the king told his minister "I want a throne of gold!" And the minister told the servant, "Make the king a throne of gold!" And the servant made the king a throne of gold.

Now that's what I call an explanation! It's incredibly satisfying, at least if you don't wonder why the king wanted a throne of gold in the first place. It's easy to remember, because it sounds like a story. We hear a lot of stories like this when we're children, so we're used to them. And I picked an example involving a king, both because traditional fairy tales often involve royalty, and because a top-down, hierarchical society lends itself to explanations of this sort.

There's something a bit trickier about cyclic causality, like "A causes B, which causes C, which causes A." It may sound like a sneaky trick: we consider "circular reasoning" a bad thing. Sometimes it is a sneaky trick. But sometimes this is how things really work!

Why does big business have such influence in American politics? Because big business hires lots of lobbyists, who talk to the politicians, and even give them money. Why are they allowed to do this? Because big business has such influence in American politics. That's an example of a "vicious circle". You might like to cut it off — but like a snake holding its tail in its mouth, it's hard to know where to start.

Of course, not all circles are "vicious". Many are "virtuous".

But the really tricky thing is how a circle can sometimes reverse direction. In academia we worry about this a lot: we say a university can either "ratchet up" or "ratchet down". A good university attracts good students and good professors, who bring in more grant money, and all this makes it even better... while a bad university tends to get even worse, for all the same reasons. But sometimes a good university goes bad, or vice versa. Explaining that transition can be hard.

It's also hard to explain why a La Niña switches to an El Niño, or vice versa. Indeed, it seems scientists still don't understand this. They have some models that simulate this process, but there are still lots of mysteries. And even if they get models that work perfectly, they still may not be able to tell a good story about it. Wind and water are ultimately described by partial differential equations, not fairy tales.

But anyway, let me tell you a story about how it works. I'm just learning this stuff, so take it with a grain of salt...

The "El Niño/Southern Oscillation" or "ENSO" is the largest form of variability in the Earth's climate on times scales greater than a year and less than a decade. It occurs across the tropical Pacific Ocean every 3 to 7 years, and on average every 4 years. It can cause extreme weather such as floods and droughts in many regions of the world. Countries dependent on agriculture and fishing, especially those bordering the Pacific Ocean, are the most affected.

And here's a cute little animation of it:

Let me tell you first about La Niña, and then El Niño. If you keep glancing back at this little animation, I promise you can understand everything I'll say.

Winds called trade winds blow west across the tropical Pacific. During La Niña years, water at the ocean's surface moves west with these winds, warming up in the sunlight as it goes. So, warm water collects at the ocean's surface in the western Pacific. This creates more clouds and rainstorms in Asia. Meanwhile, since surface water is being dragged west by the wind, cold water from below gets pulled up to take its place in the eastern Pacific, off the coast of South America.

I hope this makes sense so far. But there's another aspect to the story. Because the ocean's surface is warmer in the western Pacific, it heats the air and makes it rise. So, wind blows west to fill the "gap" left by rising air. This strengthens the westward-blowing trade winds.

So, it's a kind of feedback loop: the oceans being warmer in the western Pacific helps the trade winds blow west, and that makes the western oceans even warmer.

Get it? This should all make sense so far, except for one thing. There's one big question, and I hope you're asking it. Namely:

Why do the trade winds blow west?

If I don't answer this, my story so far would work just as well if I switched the words "west" and "east". That wouldn't necessarily mean my story was wrong. It might just mean that there were two equally good options: a La Niña phase where the trade winds blow west, and another phase — say, El Niño — where they blow east! From everything I've said so far, the world could be permanently stuck in one of these phases. Or, maybe it could randomly flip between these two phases for some reason.

Something roughly like this last choice is actually true. But it's not so simple: there's not a complete symmetry between west and east.

Why not? Mainly because the Earth is turning to the east.

Air near the equator warms up and rises, so new air from more northern or southern regions moves in to take its place. But because the Earth is fatter at the equator, the equator is moving faster to the east. So, the new air from other places is moving less quickly by comparison... so as seen by someone standing on the equator, it blows west. This is an example of the Coriolis effect:

By the way: in case this stuff wasn't tricky enough already, a wind that blows to the west is called an easterly, because it blows from the east! That's what happens when you put sailors in charge of scientific terminology. So the westward-blowing trade winds are called "northeasterly trades" and "southeasterly trades" in the picture above. But don't let that confuse you.

(I also tend to think of Asia as the "Far East" and California as the "West Coast", so I always need to keep reminding myself that Asia is in the west Pacific, while California is in the east Pacific. But don't let that confuse you either! Just repeat after me until it makes perfect sense: "The easterlies blow west from the West Coast to Far East".)

Okay: silly terminology aside, I hope everything makes perfect sense so far. The trade winds have a good intrinsic reason to blow west, but in the La Niña phase they're also part of a feedback loop where they make the western Pacific warmer... which in turn helps the trade winds blow west.

But then comes an El Niño! Now for some reason the westward winds weaken. This lets the built-up warm water in the western Pacific slosh back east. And with weaker westward winds, less cold water is pulled up to the surface in the east. So, the eastern Pacific warms up. This makes for more clouds and rain in the eastern Pacific — that's when we get floods in Southern California. And with the ocean warmer in the eastern Pacific, hot air rises there, which tends to counteract the westward winds even more!

In other words, all the feedbacks reverse themselves.

But note: the trade winds never mainly blow east. During an El Niño they still blow west, just a bit less. So, the climate is not flip-flopping between two symmetrical alternatives. It's flip-flopping between two asymmetrical alternatives.

I hope all this makes sense... except for one thing. There's another big question, and I hope you're asking it. Namely:

Why do the westward trade winds weaken?

We could also ask the same question about the start of the La Niña phase: why do the westward trade winds get stronger?

The short answer is that nobody knows. Or at least there's no one story that everyone agrees on. There are actually several stories... and perhaps more than one of them is true. But now let me just show you the data:

The top graph shows variations in the water temperature of the tropical Eastern Pacific ocean. When it's hot we have El Niños: those are the red hills in the top graph. The blue valleys are La Niñas.

The bottom graph shows the "Southern Oscillation Index" or "SOI". This is the air pressure in Tahiti minus the air pressure in Darwin, Australia. You can see those locations here:

So, when the SOI is high, the air pressure is higher in the east Pacific than in the west Pacific. This is what we expect in an La Niña: that's why the westward trade winds are strong then! Conversely, the SOI is low in the El Niño phase. This variation in the SOI is called the Southern Oscillation.

If you look at the graphs above, you'll see how one looks almost like an upside-down version of the other. So, El Niño/La Niña cycle is tightly linked to the Southern Oscillation.

Another thing you'll see from is that ENSO cycle is far from perfectly periodic! Here's a graph of the Southern Oscillation Index going back a lot further:

This graph was made by William Kessler, who works at the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory. His explanations of the ENSO cycle are the first ones I really understood:

• William Kessler, What is El Niño and how does it relate to the usual situation in the tropical Pacific?
• William Kessler, El Niño: How it works, how we observe it.

My own explanation here is a slow-motion, watered-down version of his. Any mistakes are, of course, mine. But now I want to go a bit further and quote his discussion of why an El Niño starts, and why it ends. As you'll see, this part is a bit more technical. It involves three concepts I haven't explained yet:

• The "thermocline" is the border between the warmer surface water in the ocean and the cold deep water, 100 to 200 meters below the surface. During the La Niña phase, warm water is blown to the western Pacific, and cold water is pulled up to the surface of the eastern Pacific. So, the thermocline is deeper in the west than the east:
  
  When an El Niño occurs, the thermocline flattens out:
  
  
  
  
• "Oceanic Rossby waves" are very low-frequency waves in the ocean's surface and thermocline. At the ocean's surface they are only 5 centimeters high, but hundreds of kilometers across. They move at about 10 centimeters/second, requiring months to years to cross the ocean! The surface waves are mirrored by waves in the thermocline, which are much larger, 10-50 meters in height. When the surface goes up, the thermocline goes down.
• The "Madden-Julian Oscillation" or "MJO" is the largest form of variability in the tropical atmosphere on time scales of 30-90 days. It's a pulse that moves east across the Indian Ocean and Pacific ocean at 4-8 meters/second. It manifests itself as patches of anomalously high rainfall and also anomalously low rainfall. Strong Madden-Julian Oscillations are often seen 6-12 months before an El Niño starts.

With this bit of background, let's read what Kessler wrote:

There are two main theories at present. The first is that the event is initiated by the reflection from the western boundary of the Pacific of an oceanic Rossby wave (type of low-frequency planetary wave that moves only west). The reflected wave is supposed to lower the thermocline in the west-central Pacific and thereby warm the SST [sea surface temperature] by reducing the efficiency of upwelling to cool the surface. Then that makes winds blow towards the (slightly) warmer water and really start the event. The nice part about this theory is that the Rossby waves can be observed for months before the reflection, which implies that El Niño is predictable.

The other idea is that the trigger is essentially random. The tropical convection (organized largescale thunderstorm activity) in the rising air tends to occur in bursts that last for about a month, and these bursts propagate out of the Indian Ocean (known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation). Since the storms are geostrophic (rotating according to the turning of the earth, which means they rotate clockwise in the southern hemisphere and counter-clockwise in the north), storm winds on the equator always blow towards the east. If the storms are strong enough, or last long enough, then those eastward winds may be enought to start the sloshing. But specific Madden-Julian Oscillation events are not predictable much in advance (just as specific weather events are not predictable in advance), and so to the extent that this is the main element, then El Niño will not be predictable.

In my opinion both these two processes can be important in different El Niños. Some models that did not have the MJO storms were successful in predicting the events of 1986-87 and 1991-92. That suggests that the Rossby wave part was a main influence at that time. But those same models have failed to predict the events since then, and the westerlies have appeared to come from nowhere. It is also quite possible that these two general sets of ideas are incomplete, and that there are other causes entirely. The fact that we have very intermittent skill at predicting the major turns of the ENSO cycle (as opposed to the very good forecasts that can be made once an event has begun) suggests that there remain important elements that are await explanation.

In email, Kessler adds:

We understand lots of details but the big picture remains mysterious. And I enjoyed your interview with Tim Palmer because it brought out a lot of the sources of uncertainty in present-generation climate modeling. However, with El Niño, the mystery is beyond Tim's discussion of the difficulties of climate modeling. We do not know whether the tropical climate system on El Niño timescales is stable (in which case El Niño needs an external trigger, of which there are many candidates) or unstable. In the 80s and 90s we developed simple "toy" models that convinced the community that the system was unstable and could be expected to arise naturally within the tropical climate system. Now that is in doubt, and we are faced with a fundamental uncertainty about the very nature of the beast. Since none of us old farts has any new ideas (I just came back from a conference that reviewed this stuff), this is a fruitful field for a smart young person.

So, I hope some smart young people read this and dive into work on the El Niño/Southern Oscillation! Next time I'll talk about some mathematical models of this phenomenon, and related questions.

---

To hate is to study, to study is to understand, to understand is to appreciate, to appreciate is to love. So maybe I'll end up loving your theory. - John Archibald Wheeler

---

© 2010 John Baez
baez@math.removethis.ucr.andthis.edu

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The Gillard Government’s climate change committee is still investigating the best way to slug Australians with a new carbon tax, a climate change solution based on flawed IPCC scientific process.

Labor’s sudden panic over climate change is driven mostly by IPCC assessment reports that have now been corrected to better reflect this peak bodies understanding of the science of climate change.

Either the Labor government won’t back down on a ‘price on carbon’ to appease the Greens or they simply have not read the evolving literature. The carbon tax stance is now outdated.

The Government’s climate change sales pitch and carefully worded slogans mean the Australian public now sees the IPCC as a group of scientists independently evaluating the best available information before informing the world of a way forward. This is far from reality.

Independent Scientists have identified flaws in the computer models that form the basis for the IPCC’s 2007 global warming predictions.

The IPCC‘s own authors are now changing their minds on the carbon price approach.

IPCC vice chairman, Professor Jean-Pascal van Ypersele has conceded there "probably would be mistakes" in a report scheduled for 2013-14 and says the IPCC has been "naive and incompetent" in its handling of the incorrect claim that every glacier in the Himalayas could melt by 2035. Professor Richard Tol notes, “One should keep in mind that there is a history of exaggeration in the study of climate change impacts.”

The Federal Government is also partial to quoting the world's oldest scientific academy, The Royal Society when creating urgency around climate change and the need for a carbon tax. But Britain’s leading scientific institution has also been forced to rewrite its guide on climate change and admit, "There remains the possibility that hitherto unknown aspects of the climate and climate change could emerge and lead to significant modifications in our understanding."

The Royal Society goes further to question scientists, who have made unambiguous statements, "There is little confidence in specific projections of future regional climate change, except at continental scales."

The organisation also avoids making predictions about the impact of climate change and refrains from advising governments about how they should respond.

The French Academy of Sciences also says the jury is still out regarding the indirect effects of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases produced by human activity.

It is unfathomable that the Federal Government is intent on spending billions of dollars on carbon reduction schemes based on science that is contentious and literature that is outdated.

The New Zealand authorities followed a very similar path. Raw national temperature records in New Zealand show no warming, but after government climatologists worked the numbers a warming trend of 1C appeared.

This government denied ownership of its own national temperature record in a case heard in New Zealand’s High Court. A record used to justify its climate change stance, stating they, "Are not required to use the best available information nor to apply the best scientific practices and techniques available at any given time. They don’t think that forms any part of their statutory obligation to pursue 'excellence.'"

Australians are coming to understand a carbon tax is not the solution and that the Federal government’s interest in a carbon price has little to do with environmental protection.

The Coalition must provide a well articulated alternative that challenges the flawed assumptions underlying the Gillard Government’s policy. There is only one way to consider all the climate change claims and counter claims.

The debate is largely being conducted in terms of political rhetoric. Facts are being lost in opinions of our Leaders, who have little understanding of climate science. The average punter is confused and this has let misleading slogans guide public understanding.

A Royal Commission into the science of climate change will force balanced submissions from all parties and allow an honest public debate, free of emotion, based on the evidence. This wide-ranging, independent inquiry will examine the credibility of the evidence presented to it.

Examination of the Hansard of the Standing Committee on Science in the last Parliament shows scientists that make unambiguous statements publicly are far more cautious when their evidence, if found to be false or misleading can be found in contempt of Parliament.

This alone is clear evidence a Royal Commission into the science of climate change will provide us with answers, particularly when examining the parts played by the Bureau of Meteorology and the CSIRO.

It will come at a cost but only a Royal Commission can establish a clear divide between fact and fantasy.

Advanced energy R&D must also be considered. By devoting just 0.2 per cent of global GDP, about $US100billion a year, to green energy R&D would produce the kind of factor multiplication that could fuel a more energy efficient future, right now. Nuclear energy must be one of the options explored for most efficiently conserving and producing cleaner energy for Australia in the longer term.

Australia’s fate seems to be in the hands of a panel of yes men and women who have no first-hand involvement with climate science. Science works on evidence: the facts and figures; it doesn’t work by creating a pre-determined consensus around a board table.

As The International Climate Science Coalition notes:

"Attempts by governments to legislate costly regulations on industry and individual citizens to encourage CO2 reduction will slow development while having no appreciable impact on the future trajectory of global climate change. Such policies will markedly diminish future prosperity and so reduce the ability of societies to adapt to inevitable climate change, thereby increasing, not decreasing human suffering."

Australia’s climate change policies must be based on our best understanding of the latest scientific research coupled with assessment of the relevant economics impacts. Nothing less than a Royal Commission into the science of climate change will provide the most climate effective and cost effective solutions in this debate.


Dr Dennis Jensen is the Liberal Party Federal member for Tangney.

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As a celebrated historian, Professor Naomi Oreskes is interested in the origin of things - where ideas start from, what drives them and ultimately who propagates them.

Oreskes, Professor of History and Science Studies at the University of California San Diego, has just arrived in Australia on a whistle-stop speaking tour promoting her new book, co-authored with Erik Conway, titled Merchants of Doubt - How a handful of scientists obscured the truth on issues from tobacco smoke to global warming.

The book, five years in the writing, ultimately concludes that much of the world’s scepticism on climate change is fuelled by a paranoid ideological fear of socialism and an unbending faith and belief in free-markets.

Put simply, US-based free-market think-tanks such as the George C Marshall Institute, the Heartland Institute, The Science and Public Policy Institute, Competitive Enterprise Institute and the Why-Can’t-You-Just-Leave-us-Alone-While-We-Make-Oodles-of-Cash Institute (not a real institute) don’t like industry to have to be held accountable. It’s all about freedom, you see.

Oreskes spoke to the ABC’s Lateline program on this brand of scepticism which also drove its perpetrators to cast doubt over the causes of acid rain, the linking of tobacco smoke to cancer and the use of CFCs in eating the ozone.

“It’s part of this whole ideological program of challenging any science that could lead to government regulation, because it’s part of an ideological conviction that all regulation is bad, that any time the government steps in to ‘protect’ us from harm, that we’re on the slippery slope to socialism, and this is the ideology that you see underlying a kind of almost paranoid anti-communism. So even after the Cold War is over, these people are seeing reds under the bed.”

But before we all shake our heads at the audacity and paranoia of these “only in America”, we should acknowledge that Australia has its own Merchants of Doubt, some of which have long-held associations with the US denialist machinery and share its habits.

In her tour-opening speech to the University of Queensland’s Global Change Institute in Brisbane earlier this week, Oreskes even went as far as to list Australia’s The Institute of Public Affairs alongside those other free-market think tanks including the George C Marshall Institute (a focus of her book).

On its website, the IPA says it “supports the free market of ideas, the free flow of capital, a limited and efficient government, evidence-based public policy, the rule of law, and representative democracy.”

The IPA’s researchers and fellows are prolific in their writing and are virtual ever-presents in the op-ed pages of newspapers and on popular web opinion sites such as The Drum and The Punch.

But given their open support for free markets, small governments and minimal regulation, they’re “research” and “analysis” is always designed to allow the recipient to come to the same predictable conclusion.

Back in April this year, the IPA’s executive director John Roskam wrote a letter to the then prime minister Kevin Rudd giving chapter and verse on his organisation’s role in promoting climate scepticism in Australia. He wrote:

“The IPA has taken the lead in addressing the economic and social costs of assumed human-induced climate change and the various costs of measures that seek to prevent it. The IPA has demonstrated that in fact the costs of climate change are likely to be modest but that the costs of the measures to prevent climate change will be very considerable, particularly for Australia.

“The IPA has also been sceptical about the evidence and the extent of global warming that might be due to human activity. The claim that humans are the cause of harmful and potentially catastrophic global warming has been fashionable for a long time. No reputable authority claims the science on the matter is ‘settled’.”

Roskam went on to say how the IPA had published “literally hundreds” of articles, research papers and submissions on global warming and had “consistently warned” of the “prohibitive costs” of proposed measures to tackle it.

Also enclosed with the letter, was a book produced by the IPA titled Climate Change: The Facts described by Roskam as a “series of essays by some of the world’s best scientists and economists on why we need an honest debate about climate change”.

You can’t help but think that Roskam must have been chuckling to himself as he wrote that statement, given the paucity of actual peer-reviewed scientific research on climate change amongst the book’s contributors, which included Ian Plimer, Richard Lindzen, Nigel Lawson, William Kininmonth, Willie Soon, Christopher Monckton, Garth Paltridge plus the IPA’s own Alan Moran and Roskam himself.

At one point or another, pretty much every one of these climate sceptics (or sceptics of the need for action) have also been hosted by one or more of the US-based free-market think-tanks.

For many years journalists have been uncovering funding links between these think-tanks and major industries. After all, all those person-hours doing research, writing and flying around the world don’t come cheap. Oreskes raised this question to her Brisbane audience.

“But who funds these groups and what do they really represent? The tobacco industry, fossil fuel industries, the mining industry and the chemical industry. All of these have heavy environmental footprints which stand to lose from government regulation. But rather than trying to defend the obvious evidence, they hide behind the rubric of freedom and liberty.”

Before his job at the IPA, John Roskam was the executive director of the Menzies Research Centre, a Liberal Party think-tank. Before that, he was corporate affairs manager for mining company Rio Tinto. Organisations like the IPA are not obliged to disclose legally where their funding comes from, but some reports have suggested about a quarter of its income is from organisations with a stake in the climate change debate.

But if you sign up to the Oreskes theory, the core driver of the scepticism of groups like the IPA isn’t money, but ideology.

Also in the Rudd letter, Roskam pointed out how the IPA had hosted speakers “at dozens of events and lectures” and provided another set list of sceptics including Bob Carter, Ian Plimer, Garth Paltridge, Pat Michaels, Bill Kininmonth, Sinclair Davidson, Alex Robson, Christopher Monckton, Richard Tol, Brian Fisher, Aynsley Kellow and Nigel Lawson.

Earlier this year, Lord Monckton was featured heavily in newspaper coverage when he conducted a speaking tour in towns and cities across the country, including a debate in Brisbane which was televised by the ABC (featuring yours truly). Monckton, like the majority of sceptics, has no science training and while he is undoubtedly one of the highest-profile sceptics, he has never had a peer-reviewed climate science paper published.

Ian Plimer, a geology professor at the University of Adelaide, also joined Monckton in the debate. He is a well-paid consultant who, since 2008, has earned more than $750,000 from his work with two mining companies.

Professor Bob Carter, an adjunct research fellow at James Cook University in Queensland, has closer links to the IPA as its solitary science advisor. Bob carter is a regular at conferences hosted by the US groups, including Heartland.

His latest book, launched in October, is called Climate: the Counter-consensus. The book is published by Stacey International, which has also released unambiguously titled books such as The Wind Farm Scam, Climate: The Great Delusion, Chasing Rainbows: How the Green Agenda Defeats its Aims and other anti-regulation books.

The IPA was reported to have paid for New Zealand politician Rodney Hide, leader of ACT New Zealand, to fly to Australia to attend the book launch. Hide was gushing in his praise of Bob Carter’s book and used the speech to suggest it proved why his ACT party had been right to oppose (unsuccessfully) the introduction of an ETS in New Zealand.

“I am here to encourage Australian politicians and policy makers to read this book and avoid New Zealand’s costly mistake,” he said.

In one of his regular pieces for this site (about 40 in the last 12 months), the IPA’s Chris Berg attacked “climate activists” for attacking sceptics.

“But there is serious debate to be had about climate change. Debate about the best response to the changing climate and the degree to which we are responsible for that change. Debate about how we can adapt to a warmer or colder environment. Debate about whether Australia should bother trying to “lead the world” if the world isn’t interested in following. Instead of tackling those questions, many climate activists would prefer to treat the existence of public uncertainty about the origin, costs and consequences of climate change as not just wrong, but corrupt, immoral, and, now, unhealthy. This attitude has the stale whiff of authoritarianism.”

As well as using the weapon of doubt and uncertainty to water-down public concern about climate change, the IPA has, unsurprisingly given its stated opposition to regulation, consistently opposed any kind of price on carbon.

These drone-like protests have increased in their frequency as the Gillard Government has re-iterated its pursuit of a carbon price through the Climate Change Committee.

In one opinion piece written for the Australian Financial Review last week, the IPA’s Tom Switzer managed to pour cold water not only on legislated measures to combat climate change, but also on direct measures. Do nothing, was the take home message. Switzer wrote:

“To be sure, Barack Obama hopes to unveil other climate initiatives such as multimillion-dollar subsidies for renewable energy projects. But most green lobby groups concede that direct-action proposals are insufficient measures to combat global warming. Obama could use the US Environmental Protection Agency to override Congress and unilaterally impose regulations under the 1990 clean-air laws. But such action would be deeply unpopular in several bellwether, recession-plagued states in the lead up to the 2012 presidential election. In any case, administrative regulation would almost certainly be tied up in litigation for years.”

For The Drum, Switzer also wrote:

“In this environment, domestic plans to price carbon unilaterally would inflict collateral damage on the Australian economy: higher energy prices, lower growth and lost jobs to nations that won’t conform to any post-Kyoto deal.”

You may be spotting a pattern by now. Then there’s the IPA’s Alan Moran, long-time advocate for doing nothing much on climate change who has a particular disliking of renewable energy. Again, for The Drum:

“Setting ourselves up as a pacemaker would create an even worse outcome and would almost certainly plunge the economy into a deep depression and wreck the nation’s competitiveness.”

Consistently, the IPA pursues the myth that the world isn’t doing anything on climate change. Dr Martin Parkinson, secretary of the Department of Climate Change, referred to the "peculiarly Australian conceit that no action is being taken elsewhere in the world".

There are of course many other characters who make-up Australia’s Merchants of Doubt. There’s the role of The Australian newspaper, for example.

Just for fun, I’m supplying this link to one of my former blogs which, due to the GreenBlog’s syndication across all News Ltd websites, also appeared on The Australian and documented how one of its editorials had misrepresented the work of a climate scientist.

There are literally scores and scores of examples of The Australian newspaper’s active and regular abandonment of journalism in favour of an ideologically-driven opposition to climate change and environmentalism generally. At one point, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology even stopped bothering to try and correct their mistakes. Australian blog Deltoid has been documenting the newspaper’s “war on science” for longer, and with more vigour, than anyone else.

Then of course, we can add News Ltd commentators such as Andrew Bolt, Tim Blair, Janet Albrechtsen, Miranda Devine, Piers Akerman and Terry McCrann who, given their numbers and readership, often complain of left-wing bias in the media. Then on radio you have sceptic talkback radio hosts such as Alan Jones and Michael Smith, both of which regularly trumpet sceptic guests.

Dishonourable mentions could also go to Australian Senators. On his own blog, South Australian Senator Corey Bernardi recently declared all climate scientists were “rent-seekers” running a “pseudoscientific racket”.

Last year soon-to-be-not-a Senator Steve Fielding even spent time at a US Heartland Institute conference before returning with some sceptic talking points in hand. Nationals Senators Ron Boswell and Barnaby Joyce agreed last year to launch mining consultant Ian Plimer’s much derided book Heaven and Earth.

What’s comforting about Oreskes’ findings, is that it allows us to consume the musings of free-market think tanks with a pinch of salt, because essentially they’re unable to step outside a very narrow frame of reference which hasn’t moved on since the Cold War.

Or in other words, we’ve heard it all before.

Graham Readfearn is a freelance journalist and writer covering the environment and sustainability.

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THE Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) admits it was wrong about urban heating effects as a professional statistical analysis by Andrew Barnham exposes a BOM claim that “since 1960 the mean temperature in Australia has increased by about 0.7 °C”; the BOM assertion has no empirical scientific basis. Read more here:  http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2010/11/new-retreat-from-global-warming-data-by.html And from the [...]

BOM loses rainfall by Tom Quirk on Quadrant Online Shock Murray-Darling Basin discovery Analysts at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology have some explaining to do. In the last two years some 900 mm of rainfall have been removed from the … Continue reading →

From the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the trace is now at a comparable level to the 2008 La Niña, though the onset is more rapid: Issued on Wednesday 13 October The La Niña in the Pacific remains a moderate to … Continue reading →

The Pacific Institute has a new report [pdf] on how to save a million acre feet of water in California. From what I see, it's like the previous two versions in its reliance on command and control, regulation and subsidies (paid by whom?).

Although you should read this, you can't now. Instead, read how to fix urban water prices and promote wholesale water markets, but don't forget to read good analysis of bureaucratic barriers to improvement.

How does a REAL water market work?

Glen Bartholomew with Dr Karl Braganza from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Glem Bartholomew with Dr Karl Braganza from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology

From the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) see the SOI below, now firmly in positive territory like in 2008. An animation of SST from the Navy follows. Pacific Ocean in early stages of a La Niña event Issued on Wednesday … Continue reading →

You just lived through hottest June in recorded history

Report: Warmest June on record globally
By Angela Fritz, CNN Meteorologist
July 18, 2010 5:10 p.m. EDT

Photo: New Yorkers in the Bronx seek refuge from the heat June 10.
. STORY HIGHLIGHTS

* Report says warmer-than-average conditions were present globally in June
* Australia continues to suffer from below-average rainfall
* Arctic sea ice reached a record low for the month of June

(CNN) -- Last month was the warmest June on record worldwide, according to a report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Warmer-than-average conditions were present across nearly all continents, including much of the United States, according to the organization's State of the Climate report, released Friday.

Although global sea surface temperatures ranked the fourth-warmest on record, the combination of land and sea anomalies pushed June 2010 past June 2005, previously the warmest June on record, the report said. June was also the fourth consecutive month in a row of record warmth worldwide.

Meanwhile, wetter-than-average conditions were present in southern India, southern China, southern Europe and the U.S. Midwest, the report said. In contrast, southwest Australia is experiencing record-setting rainfall deficiencies, with the lowest rainfall on record for the first half of the year, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The Bureau reported that all states and territories in Australia experienced drier-than-average conditions in June.

June also marked a record low in Arctic sea ice -- the 19th June in a row the sea ice has been below average.

"This is important, because sea ice reflects incoming solar radiation back to space," said CNN Meteorologist Taylor Ward. "Without the normal extent of sea ice in the Arctic, we can expect more radiation to be absorbed into the ocean, leading to more melting. It's what we call a 'positive feedback.'" The amount of sea ice in the Arctic has been steadily declining since 1990.

Warmer-than-average temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, also known as El Nino, have been contributing to the warmth. La Nina conditions -- cooler-than-average temperatures in the same region -- are beginning to set in, which could prevent more monthly records from being set. However, La Nina combined with record-setting warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures is expected to fuel an active Atlantic hurricane season.

The announcement of June's record-setting warmth comes during a period of extreme heat in the United States and Europe. Excessive heat warnings have been topping weather headlines in the United States for more than two weeks now, and Europe has been shattering temperature records as well, with a heat wave through the first half of July. Eastern Europe has seen the most significant temperatures, although much of the continent has experienced above-average heat.

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I met Ken while on my Australian tour, he’s been doing some fine work. Via Andrew Bolt Retired school principal Kenskingdom was alarmed by this Bureau of Meteorology graph, showing a strong warming trend for Victoria, Australia: He checked the … Continue reading →

Why we may never be able to say goodbye to oil

As recently as 1990, China got through around two million barrels of oil every day. That figure is pushing seven million now and set to rise to twice as much again by 2030.

As America's Energy Information Administration points out, that extra demand alone will add 10% to the world's consumption.

Another way of looking at it is that the Chinese currently consume just one litre of oil a day per head, compared with 11 litres in the United States.

If the country's oil demand were to reach US proportions, total world consumption would double.

As so called "peak oil" theorists have it, such levels of production would be impossible to achieve, now that the rate of worldwide extraction is already in, or close to, terminal decline.

Crude Oil Futures Rise on U.S. Stockpiles Outlook, Euro Rebound

(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose in New York before a report that may show growing U.S. demand for the fuel and as the euro recovered against the dollar, boosting the appeal of commodities.

U.S. crude stockpiles probably fell for a third week, a Bloomberg survey showed. The Energy Department is scheduled to release its weekly report tomorrow at 10:30 a.m. in Washington. The euro rebounded to $1.2257 and the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.4 percent.

A Look At BP's World Energy Review

The study found that world energy consumption fell by 1.1% in 2009, the first decline since 1982. This decline in consumption was led by OECD countries, which saw a 5% decline in consumption in 2009. Emerging countries led by China and India grew energy consumption by 2.7%, but this was not enough to trump the much larger users in the OECD.

The statistics on worldwide oil demand mirrored the overall energy trends, with a large decline in OECD demand overwhelming the high demand growth regions of the world. Total oil demand fell by 1.7%, or 1.2 million barrels per day, in 2009. Oil demand has now fallen for two consecutive years, and is below the level of demand in 2006.

Saudi output slashed in 2009

State oil company Saudi Aramco's crude output fell by a million barrels per day in 2009 from the previous year as the kingdom led Opec in making steep production curbs, data from Aramco showed today.

Aramco's crude output was 7.9 million barrels per day in 2009, the company said in an annual review released today, down from 8.9 million bpd in 2008, reported Reuters.

Saudi Aramco's Khursaniyah gas plant online in June

(Reuters) - Saudi Aramco's gas processing plant at the 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) Khursaniyah oilfield will be fully operational in June, the state oil giant said on Tuesday.

The gas plant has capacity to process around 1 billion cubic feet per day (cfd) of raw sour gas from the Abu Hadriya, Fadhili and Khursaniyah fields, producing around 560 million cfd of gas.

What The Gulf Spill Means For The Future Of Oil

Since the spill in the Gulf of Mexico, the government has announced a series of measures aimed at restricting new drilling activity. The short term measures include a six-month extension on a ban on permits for new drilling in deep water. New drilling in other parts of the country remains on hold.

Fitch slashes BP rating owing to oil spill

LONDON (AFP) – International ratings agency Fitch said on Tuesday it had slashed BP's credit rating by six notches from "AA" to "BBB", citing the impact of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill disaster.

"Fitch Ratings has downgraded BP plc's long-term issuer default rating and senior unsecured rating to 'BBB' from 'AA'," it said in a statement. The 'BBB' rating is just two notches above junk status.

Magnitude of Gulf of Mexico oil spill fuels concerns that BP may be bankrupted

As President Barack Obama made his case for BP to escrow $20 billion to ensure that environmental and economic damages from the undersea Gulf Coast oil gusher are paid, fears heightened that the company may seek bankruptcy protection in the face of claims that grow every day as more oil billows into the ocean.

BP denies bankruptcy rumors, seeks advice

NEW YORK (AFP) – BP has tapped financial advisers at Goldman Sachs, Blackstone Group and Credit Suisse as pressure mounts on the British energy giant over the devastating Gulf of Mexico oil spill, US media reported on Monday.

A BP spokesman denied the reports, saying the group did not want to reveal "who are our advisors and on what they are advising us."

Poll: Oil spill's economic impact worries public

WASHINGTON — Americans overwhelmingly view the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico as an economic and environmental catastrophe that will reverberate for a decade and more, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds.

When President Obama addresses the nation Tuesday, he'll face a public that is pessimistic about the future of Gulf coastal areas and their wildlife. Half of those surveyed say some beaches will never fully recover, and even more predict some species of fish and birds will never return to normal levels.

Eight in 10 expect the spill to hurt the U.S. economy and drive up the cost of gas and food.

BP engineer called doomed rig a 'nightmare well'

WASHINGTON – BP took measures to cut costs in the weeks before the catastrophic blowout in the Gulf of Mexico as it dealt with one problem after another, prompting a BP engineer to describe the doomed rig as a "nightmare well," according to internal documents released Monday.

The comment by BP engineer Brian Morel came in an e-mail April 14, six days before the Deepwater Horizon rig explosion that killed 11 people and has sent tens of millions of gallons of oil into the Gulf in the nation's worst environmental disaster.

Efforts to Repel Gulf Oil Spill Are Described as Chaotic

For much of the last two months, the focus of the response to the Deepwater Horizon explosion has been a mile underwater, 50 miles from shore, where successive efforts involving containment domes, “top kills” and “junk shots” have failed, and a “spillcam” shows tens of thousands of barrels of oil hemorrhaging into the gulf each day.

Closer to shore, the efforts to keep the oil away from land have not fared much better, despite a response effort involving thousands of boats, tens of thousands of workers and millions of feet of containment boom.

BP faces grilling in Congress, Obama to speak on TV

WASHINGTON/HOUSTON (Reuters) – BP Plc's U.S. chief faces accusations in Congress on Tuesday that the energy giant caused the worst oil spill in U.S. history with a calculated strategy to cut costs, hours before President Barack Obama uses a televised address to defend his handling of the disaster.

White House: Obama ready to seize claims process

PENSACOLA, Fla. – President Barack Obama is reassuring people in Gulf Coast states that he's up to the enormous job of helping them recover from the disastrous oil spill, laying the groundwork for a prime-time speech Tuesday night. His chief spokesman said Obama is poised to seize the handling of damage claims from BP, if necessary.

Gulf Coasters skeptical of Obama, BP promises

PASS CHRISTIAN, Miss. – President Barack Obama promised that life would return to normal for people living on the stricken Gulf Coast, and BP said new efforts will more than triple the amount of oil it captures from a ruptured undersea well. But the pledges don't reassure some residents.

"I think that as long as BP is still in control, there's not a lot he can do other than show support for the residents of these Gulf states," Jennifer Jenkins, 34, of Long Beach, said of Obama.

Oil-processing gear's U.S. route sparks fears

HELENA, Mont. — As the nation anxiously watches the catastrophic continuing Gulf oil spill, one portion of the country is growing concerned about another oil-related issue — a plan to transport the enormous machinery required to build an oil-processing plant in Canada.

The immediate issue is not the plant itself — which would extract oil from sand — but the disruptions and environmental issues involved with trucking more than 200 massive pieces of Korean-built processing equipment along the path of Lewis and Clark and adjacent to famed wild and scenic rivers in Northern Rockies.

It Doesn’t Matter What Obama Says About the Oil Spill

The irony was that BP’s latest discovery was the mother lode of oil reservoirs. Vladimir Kutcherov is a Russian specialist in the theory of the abiogenic deep origin of oil, the view that it is not created from the activity of living organisms; that oil is the result of dead dinosaurs.

Oil, it would appear, is created deep within the Earth. Kutcherov believes that BP drilled into “a migration channel”, a deep fault on which hydrocarbons generated in the depth of the planet migrate to the crust.

The other irony is that the BP disaster should put an end to the widely disseminated “peak oil” theory that says the Earth is running out of oil. If Kutcherov is right—and I think he is—that means the “hole” that President Obama and BP wants “plugged” is comparable to trying to plug a volcano. The effort could take months, if not years.

Chevron: Oil in Utah leaked from quarter-size hole

SALT LAKE CITY – Chevron Corp. said Monday it believes an electrical arc from a power line torched a quarter-size hole in a pipeline that spilled thousands of gallons of crude oil into a Salt Lake City creek over the weekend.

Rocky Mountain Power said the chain of events began with a tree limb that fell onto a power line late Friday, but the utility said it would be highly unusual for an arc to drill a hole in a buried pipeline by traveling through a metal fence post.

Far from U.S. Gulf, Nigerian thieves mop up oil spills

BODO, Nigeria (Reuters) - Using two large yellow tubes to funnel polluted water into his small wooden boat, Nigerian teenager Daniel Muukor helps to "mop up" the latest oil spill in the creeks of the Niger Delta.

But Muukor is not part of Nigeria's federal response effort to contain the spill -- the 15-year-old is stealing the oil to sell on the black market.

EU to ban investments in Iranian gas and oil

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS – EU foreign ministers meeting in Luxembourg on Monday (14 June) agreed on a fresh batch of sanctions against Iran aimed at halting its nuclear program, with the new measures to target the country's massive oil and gas industry.

The inflation/deflation debate: The complete list of arguments for hyperinflation and deflation

The peak oil debate has nothing to do with inflation or deflation. If the price of oil will go up because the supply went down it will not signal inflation or deflation. We are going to see one of the biggest depressions ever, and in those environments you get all kinds of disruptions, and cutoffs of fuel are going to be one of those disruptions. But nobody was going apoplectic over the world running out of oil back when it was eleven dollars a barrel. You didn’t hear any of that. Everyone was complacent in 1998. So when you get near tops, you get all the wild forecasts and, just as with Google, everyone tries to outdo the other and one guy says we are going to run out of oil in 2060, and the other guy says no it will be 2030 and another guy says it will five years from now. So it’s the same kind of psychology that went on at that peak.

Tennessee: Fine Levied for Coal Ash Spill

The Tennessee Valley Authority has been hit with penalties totaling $11.5 million for the December 2008 coal ash spill at one of the utility's plants, partly to pay for oversight of the cleanup.

China Nuclear Plant’s ‘Very Small Leakage’ Contained

(Bloomberg) -- China’s Daya Bay nuclear power plant had a “very small leakage” from a fuel rod last month that has been contained, CLP Holdings Ltd., Hong Kong’s biggest electricity supplier, said in a statement.

Sweden: Greenpeace Activists Breach Nuclear Plant

The police arrested dozens of Greenpeace activists on Monday after they broke into the Forsmark nuclear power plant north of Stockholm before a planned vote this week on whether to replace the country’s existing reactors, many of which were built in the 1970s.

Toledo reinvents itself as a solar-power innovator

TOLEDO — This city is trying to swap its Rust Belt image for a new identity as a hub of solar-energy research and production.

The mission is being led by an unusual partnership of business, academia and government that could be a model for other aging industrial cities. "We are ready to do anything; we are ready to try anything," says University of Toledo President Lloyd Jacobs.

Peak Metals - What happens when we run out?

We can't live without metals. They seem to be in almost everything we use, and we've been digging them up for thousands of years.

But virgin metal supplies are finite.

Wollongong gets poor green rating

Wollongong is the worst ranked of all Australian cities when it comes to coping with emerging environmental pressures such as climate change, a national report has revealed.

The Australian Conservation Foundation's Sustainable Cities Index, which measured the eco-credentials of the nation's 20 largest cities across 15 indicators, found Wollongong was Australia's least "resilient" city - the most likely to falter under major environmental stress.

The unflattering result was due to a low education rate, comparably poor public health, a scarcity of volunteers and a lack of local food production, the index showed.

Tomato lovers sound off on heirlooms vs. hybrids

Is Garza talking about heirlooms or hybrids? The tomato-obsessed have firm, sometimes fanatical, opinions as to which is superior, with heirlooms getting most of the snooty vote. But Garza is talking about both.

She and a growing number of tomato aficionados are challenging tomato lovers to sample certain hybrids that burst with flavor and thumb their noses at diseases. "There are a few carefully selected hybrids that are just as good as heirlooms," she says. "I taste everything I sell. Tomato love is something we do not take lightly."

Travel without money poses challenges that make holidays more fun

To say that travel is the luxury – and not necessity – of the fossil fuel generation is an over-simplification. Globalisation has rapidly scattered close family and friends across the world, and the increasingly stressful jobs we seem to create for ourselves often mean we "need" to get away from it all, regularly. These holidays are often paid for on credit, resulting in even more stress once the fun is over, perpetuating the need for more temporary freedom and debt in the future.

Although this is all very understandable, our collective contribution to climate change through the way we travel is astronomical. Travel does not have to cost the Earth – or even money. There are two main expenses: getting somewhere, and staying there. To save yourself both of these, the only prerequisite is a sense of adventure.

Rahm Emanuel persuaded Obama to play it cool on climate bill. Post-spill, will the game plan change?

Two months earlier, she had prepared a policy document based on a short-lived interagency process designed to reach an internal consensus on climate policy, but the document had been languishing on Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel's desk. Browner wanted to dust it off and use it to prep the president on a deeper level of policy detail, so the Iowa speech could send signals to Congress about his position on the design of a climate bill.

Emanuel and strategist David Axelrod didn't think that was a good idea. Better to stick to our basic clean-energy message, they argued, and stay out of the policy weeds. It was the sort of fight that happened all the time in the Obama White House, and the True Believers ended up losing every time. "It was lather, rinse, repeat, a thousand times in a thousand ways," said one. "You had this incredible green cabinet of really committed people, but the only thing that really matters is what the president says -- so everyone was trying to get words into his mouth. And Rahm was trying to keep the words out of his mouth. It was just a chronic pattern of infighting."

Climate panel chief welcomes climate debate

The head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Rajendra Pachauri, says he welcomes "the development of a vigorous debate" on climate science.

Scientists want clear message on climate

REPRESENTATIVES of scientific organisations, including the CSIRO and the Bureau Of Meteorology, will meet today to discuss better communication of the science behind man-made climate change as the political and public consensus on global warming crumbles.

Scientists on hunt for climate-change clues explore rare tropical glacier

Bangkok, Thailand – Indonesia’s towering Puncak Jaya mountain on the island of Papua straddles one of the world’s richest and most inaccessible gold and copper mines. But the scientists currently prospecting on the 16,000-ft peak are digging for a different kind of treasure: fragile ice cores that can yield clues to the climatic past and give pointers on the future.

As Humans Advance, Andean Glaciers Recede

QUITO (IPS) - The spectacular glacier Number 15 of Antisana, one of the Ecuadorean capitals' sources of potable water, lost at least 36 percent of its original mass in the last 50 years. The Antisana is a snow-capped peak of the eastern branch of the Andes range whose three humps can be seen from Quito on clear days. It is located at the same latitude as the capital, 50 kilometres to the east.

Himalayan glacial melting still a threat

AMSTERDAM, Netherlands, June 14 (UPI) -- While the Himalayan glaciers may not be in danger of disappearing as claimed by an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, they are still affected by global climate change, threatening food security for 60 million people, a new study shows.

Much food goes to waste, which squanders resources and adds to greenhouse gases

To make that calculation, researchers at the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, part of the National Institutes of Health, began by tallying up how much food, expressed in calories, per person -- was available for human consumption in the United States in 2003. Then they estimated how many calories the average person ate that year. The difference between the two figures -- roughly 1,400 calories per person, or about 38 percent of the original supply -- represents the amount of food energy lost in the farm-to-fork journey.

Intensive farming has slowed climate change, say US researchers

Agriculture is often cited as a major source of greenhouse gases because of the reliance on fertilisers, pestcides and mechanisation in conventional farming systems.

However, a report published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, has concluded without the adoption of such technologies even more greenhouses gases would have been emmitted.

INEXPLICABLY odd images on Bureau of Meteorology radar. Cyclones off the Australian coast and the most intense storm to hit Melbourne in living memory.

CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology have recently released an excellent summary of State of the Climate snapshot. This document sets out the compelling evidence that climate change is real, unavoidable and already happening in Australia. Governments, businesses and communities must work together to consider how we mitigate and deal with climate change in Australia. Together we must develop, and transition to, a low carbon, digital economy.

Leading businesses are rethinking commercial models, operations, business practices and enhancing their ability to deal with change. Against the backdrop of continuing national debate regarding political action, many leading Australian businesses continue to make serious investments in their environmental sustainability programs - in order to "future-proof" their businesses and to remain globally and nationally competitive.

Microsoft believes that software and computer technology innovations will play a significant role in supporting Australian businesses address these challenges. As an ICT industry, we have the opportunity to innovate and support our customers as they develop new products, business practices and reduce their own carbon emissions.

Recently the Australian Information Industry Association (AIIA) released a significant study into environmental sustainability and the role of the Australian technology industry. The study reveals that 77% of Australian technology firms have developed, or are currently developing, a strategic direction around the business opportunities associated with climate change.

This video highlights the opportunity:
VIDEO

Microsoft remains committed to the development of software and technology that helps people and organisations around the world lower their environmental impact and address the pressing issue of climate change.

We also remain committed to reducing our own environmental footprint. Our global goal is to reduce our carbon emissions by 30% by 2012 (based on 2007 levels). For further information on our environment program, please visit: www.microsoft.com.au/environment

Beth Worrall, Environment and Sustainability Lead, Microsoft Australia

 

 

Several people were injured and houses destroyed Thursday as a violent storm and waterspout swept through a coastal town, tearing the roofs off homes and devastating a caravan park, officials said. The storm, which struck the northern New South Wales state town of Lennox Head, was a rotating thunderstorm known as a supercell, said meteorologist Julie Evans of the Bureau of Meteorology. A waterspout formed underneath the storm and moved onto the land and across several houses, c...

Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said heavy rain and damaging winds are in store for New South Wales state and may reach Sydney late tomorrow.

Location: Melbourne
URL: http://tinyurl.com/37wrnko

Description:

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is currently looking for a Senior Web Developer to join its dynamic team.
The successful applicant will be involved in designing and developing software aiming to improve and rationalise electronic access to and delivery of services by the Bureau of Meteorology utilising the latest advances in web delivery.
In order to be considered for this role the candidate will have:
• 5+ years experience in web development with focus on the front end
• Very strong skills in PHP, Perl, JavaScript, AJAX, CSS and XML/XSL
• An understanding of Web 2.0 and social networking
• Demonstrated experience developing within Unix/Linux environment
• Effective oral and communication skills and excellent complex problem solving skills
• An ability to organise work and the flexibility to work on several projects concurrently
• Additional experience with OpenLayers and spatial information will be highly regarded
This non-ongoing specified task is for a period of approximately 2 years with a possibility of extension.
11624

The successful candidate will be responsible for efficiently delivering content for the external Bureau of Meteorology web site and will be required to work as part of the Australian Meteorological Data and Information Service Systems (AMDISS) group. The overall objective of the AMDISS group is to improve and rationalise electronic access to and delivery of Bureau services.
The occupant will be part of the NexGenFWS/ADFD web services project team. Their work will be primarily driven by and in liaison with the Weather Services Branch and its component programs that include Severe Weather and Disaster Mitigation, Aviation, Defence, Public, Marine and Agricultural services.
The occupant of this position will be involved with development and management of the next generation of web products as part of NexGenFWS project and will utilise the latest advances in web delivery that can be readily integrated into the existing AMDISS infrastructure.
It will be necessary that the occupant be goal oriented and be able to work in a team.
The occupant will use their effective written and oral communication skills to liaise with a broad range of stakeholders on web publishing issues such as web publishing standards, page structures, layout and formatting.
The occupant will also be required to contribute to, and be aware of, new and emerging technologies for data and information delivery and to give advice on these.
The occupant will be expected to develop and maintain documentation on processes and systems to guide developers and to provide input on how development processes can be improved.
11624 3
Selection Criteria
Applicants are required to address the selection criteria.
Responses to the selection criteria should be limited to a maximum of 500 words per criterion. For information on how to address the selection criteria refer to A Guide On Addressing Selection Criteria For Applicants.
1. Demonstrated experience in the gathering and analysis of requirements and the design, development and implementation of web based applications. Demonstrated knowledge and experience of the full software life cycle.
2. Proven experience with design, implementation and maintenance of web sites that adhere to corporate and technical standards. An understanding of common web usability and accessibility considerations as well as cross-platform/browser considerations. Demonstrated skill in organising and mapping of information for ease of discovery and access.
3. Sound knowledge of Web technologies and service orientated architecture. A solid understanding of Web 2.0 and social networking. Demonstrated experience using PHP, Perl, JavaScript, AJAX, XHTML, CSS, XML and XSL.
4. Demonstrated ability to organise work and the flexibility to work on several projects concurrently. Proven ability to be responsible for outcomes both as an individual and as a team member.
5. Excellent oral and written communications skills and ability to communicate clearly to people of various seniority and technical background. An Ability to conduct presentations and deliver IT training.
6. A demonstrated knowledge and understanding of the Bureau’s Social Justice Strategy and the APS Values and Code of Conduct and a commitment to their implementation in the workplace

go to

http://tinyurl.com/37wrnko

Apply to this job

The weather-altering Pacific warming that has hit the price of commodities from sugar to natural gas has dissipated, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology

While the financial storm rages in Europe and elsewhere, emerging countries in Asia are set for some good weather. Literally. The 2009-10 episode of El Niño, the weather-altering Pacific warming which triggered droughts in some regions and pushed up food prices, has officially ended. The closely-watched Australian Bureau of Meteorology said on today the recurring [...]

In a joint CSIRO/Bureau of Meteorology statement released today, Australia's two lead climate science agencies have produced a snapshot of the state of the climate to update Australians about how their climate has changed and what it means.

The CSIRO and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology have done a brief snapshot of the state of Australia’s climate. For example this map shows the increase in mean temperature per decade from 1960 to 2009: It has become hotter everywhere, in some regions by as much a 0.4C per decade. This image shows the change in rainfall [...]

Today the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the CSIRO published a snapshot of the state of climate change in Australia.

The climate is changing and human activity is almost certainly to blame. That’s the conclusion of a new report called “State of the climate” just released by the Australian CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology. This snapshot provides observations and analysis of Australia’s climate and the factors that influence it. Two organisations, CSIRO and the [...]

Daily Telegraph, 15th March 2010 AUSTRALIA’S leading scientists have hit back at climate change sceptics, accusing them of creating a “smokescreen of denial”. The CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology will today release a State of the Climate document, a snapshot of Australia’s climate data and trend predictions. The apolitical science organisations have weighed into the debate as they believe Australians are not being told the correct information about temperatures, rainfall, ocean levels and changes to atmospheric conditions. The State of the Climate report ...

ABC Online

Victoria warned to brace for more severe storms The Age Victoria has been warned to brace for more extreme weather after one of the most intense storms seen in years smashed into Melbourne yesterday. The Bureau of Meteorology has issued a severe weather warning for the entire state, forecasting more heavy ... Victorians brace for more stormsSydney Morning Herald More storms to hit VictoriaWeekly Times Now Mini Melbourne cyclone storm causes widespread chaosThe Australian Weekly Times Now all 53 news articles »

A Dashboard widget that provides you the Australian weather sourced from The Bureau of Meteorology

A magnitude 8.8 earthquake struck off the coast of Chile early Saturday morning, resulting in a tsunami warning for the East Coast of Australia effective today. Event organizers, coordinating with the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, were forced to call both the Quiksilver Pro Gold Coast presented by Land Rover and the Roxy Pro Gold Coast events for the day, with the potential tsunami projected to hit at 8:15am. “We’ve been monitoring the situation with chief meteorologists throughout the night and all projections are indicating the effects to hit the Gold Coast at approximately 8:15am,” Rod Brooks, Quiksilver Pro Contest Director, said. “What those effects will be, we cannot be sure. We’ve been advised that the biggest surge could hit anywhere from six to 12 hours after the initial surge, so we’ve called competition off for the day. The event site is closed for the day, and we’ll check back tomorrow at 6:30am.” Event No. 1 of 10 on the 2010 ASP World Tour, the Quiksilver Pro Gold Coast enjoyed incredible surfing for Round 1 yesterday, with reigning two-time ASP World Champion Mick Fanning (AUS), 28, and former nine-time ASP World Champion Kelly Slater (USA), 38, dominating the opening day of competition. The event site is closed today. Event organizers will reconvene tomorrow morning at 6:30am to assess conditions for a possible 7:30am start. When Quiksilver Pro Gold Coast competition resumes, up first will be current ASP World No. 4 Taj Burrow (AUS), 31, up against wildcard Garrett Parkes (AUS), 18, in the opening heat of the man-on-man elimination Round 2. For the first time in the event’s storied nine-year history, the Quiksilver Pro Gold Coast is being broadcast LIVE on FUEL TV in Australia, beaming the world’s best surfing right into your living room. A 90-minute highlight show will be televised each night as well. To find out how you can watch the world’s best surfers in one of the world’s most iconic pointbreaks LIVE on FUEL TV, check out www.foxsports.com.au/fueltv The Quiksilver Pro Gold Coast pres. by Land Rover will feature the world’s best surfers from February 27 through March 10, 2010 and will be webcast LIVE via www.quiksilverpro.com.au The Roxy Pro Gold Coast, featuring the ASP Top 17, will run in conjunction with the Quiksilver Pro Gold Coast.  For more information, log onto www.aspworldtour.com QUIKSILVER PRO GOLD COAST ROUND 2 MATCH-UPS: Heat 1: Taj Burrow (AUS) vs. Garrett Parkes (AUS) Heat 2: C.J. Hobgood (USA) vs. Blake Ainsworth (AUS) Heat 3: Bobby Martinez (USA) vs. Craig Anderson (USA) Heat 4: Damien Hobgood (USA) vs. Neco Padaratz (BRA) Heat 5: Dane Reynolds (USA) vs. Blake Thornton (AUS) Heat 6: Jordy Smith (ZAF) vs. Marco Polo (BRA) Heat 7: Kieren Perrow (AUS) vs. Travis Logie (ZAF) Heat 8: Fredrick Patacchia (HAW) vs. Tanner Gudauskas (USA) Heat 9: Dean Morrison (AUS) vs. Matt Wilkinson (AUS) Heat 10: Kai Otton (AUS) vs. Nathan Yeomans (USA) Heat 11: Kekoa Bacalso (HAW) vs. Jay Thompson (AUS) Heat 12: Mick Campbell (AUS) vs. Adam Melling (AUS) Heat 13: Michel Bourez (PYF) vs. Patrick Gudauskas (USA) Heat 14: Ben Dunn (AUS) vs. Daniel Ross (AUS) Heat 15: Roy Powers (HAW) vs. Andy Irons (HAW) Heat 16: Drew Courtney (AUS) vs. Luke Stedman (AUS) ROXY PRO GOLD COAST ROUND 1 MATCH-UPS: Heat 1: Sally Fitzgibbons (AUS), Paige Hareb (NZL), Carissa Moore (HAW) Heat 2: Coco Ho (HAW), Rebecca Woods (AUS), Claire Bevilacqua (AUS) Heat 3: Stephanie Gilmore (AUS), Bruna Schmitz (BRA), Tyler Wright (AUS) Heat 4: Silvana Lima (BRA), Jessi Miley-Dyer (AUS), Nikita Robb (ZAF) Heat 5: Sofia Mulanovich (PER), Rosanne Hodge (ZAF), Lee Ann Curren (FRA) Heat 6: Melanie Bartels (HAW), Chelsea Hedges (AUS), Amee Donohoe (AUS)

AUSTRALIA has issued a tsunami warning from Queensland to Tasmania, warning of possible "dangerous waves, strong ocean currents and foreshore flooding.'' "Do not go to the coast to watch the tsunami,'' the Bureau of Meteorology's alert said.

Clive Hamilton has written a five part series on the attacks on climate science in Australia:

Bullying, lies and the rise of right-wing climate denial. I already mentioned this one

Who is orchestrating the cyber-bullying?. Andrew Bolt gets a special mention for his hate mongering.

Think tanks, oil money and black ops. The think tanks in Australia promoting denial and delay are Lavoisier, the IPA, the CIS and now the Brisbane Institute.

Manufacturing a scientific scandal. Jonathan Leake's concoctions are well covered.

Who's defending science?. The Australian's War on Science and how the CSIRO, the Bureau of Meteorology and The Australian Academy of Science are missing in action.

Read the rest of this post... | Read the comments on this post...

The Bureau of Meteorology is urging north-west Western Australian residents to remain prepared as the cyclone season reaches the halfway mark.

One of the most complicated things about tropical cyclones is forecasting their tracks, and Olga is a prime example of that problem. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center believes that Olga will remain inland over Australia's Northern Territory, while the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has forecast Olga's reemergence into the Gulf of Carpentaria.

A tropical cyclone off the northern tip of Western Australia may become severe as it nears the coast, the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) says.

Australia has sweltered through its hottest decade on record and its second warmest year since records began, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

Lincoln National Park by Dave Sag, used with permission. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has just announced, in its Annual Climate Statement 2009, that the previous decade, the ‘naughties’ as many call it, was indeed the hottest decade in recorded history. This puts paid to the lies and nonsense peddled by ranting climate deniers and [...]

Sydney Morning Herald

Hundreds evacuated as floods hit eastern Australia Reuters Australia's Bureau of Meteorology has flood warnings for around 10 rivers in the state's north. Several major rivers have burst their banks and the waters ... One thousand forced to flee Australia floodwatersAFP Floods affect several areas in AustraliaEITB Evacuations as Australian town braces for floodingAustralia Network News all 134 news articles »

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has posted an updated report on the status of the current ENSO.  You can read the full report here.  Hightlights include: Pacific Ocean temperatures remain at levels typical of a mature El Niño. Over the past fortnight, Trade winds have remained weak over the central tropical Pacific, resulting in further warming of the underlying ocean. As a result, central Pacific Ocean surface temperatures are now at their warmest level since the El Niño of 1997-98, exceeding temperatures observed in both the 2002-03 and 2006-07 events. During ...

Tropical Cyclone Laurence made its second landfall in northwest Australia as a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Scale (equivalent of a category 5 storm on the Australian Bureau of Meteorology...

Continue reading...

Real Solutions to the Energy and Climate Crises

As my regular readers know, I've spent much of this year contemplating big themes, like the long-term picture for energy, energy and monetary policy, black swans and the human penchant for valuing the present more than the future, the problems of complex systems like the energy-food-water nexus, sustainability, and the relationship between climate change and peak oil. As this year draws to a close and I review my work, the biggest question that emerges is about why it is so incredibly difficult to reach people on these subjects.

It’s more than the usual culprits. Yes, the corporate media and the ad-supported business model are problems—like when I was called a “peak freak” on television and given no opportunity to respond to my opponent’s disinformation. Yes, the overweening influence of corporate lobbyists has effectively neutralized policy and confused the public debate on our most serious problems. Yes, the capitalistic system favors short-term concentrated profits over long-term public good. And yes, the simple human preference for happy talk over sad stories plays a role in our denial.

The real problem is much more pervasive. Those actors cannot explain more fundamental questions: Why has our economic theory failed us? Why is the reality of climate change so hard to accept? Why does climate change dominate public dialogue while the more proximate threat of peak oil remains far off the radar? Why do we have such resistance to change? Why would anyone ever think Dubai World was a good idea? Why is talking about population control—arguably the only real way out of our predicament—taboo?

Jeff Rubin: Why you won't want to rely on OPEC down the road

OPEC, together with two non-cartel oil producers, Russia and Mexico, consumes 14.5 million barrels of oil per day. That’s nearly twice as much as China, in case anybody is keeping track. Oil demand among OPEC members has been growing at well over double the world average. And the more these countries consume their own oil, the less they have to export to you.

So what makes oil-producing countries so thirsty for their own fuel?

Well, if you’ve ever been to a gas station in Caracas you’ll have some sense of it.

A taxi driver there is filling up for 25 cents a gallon with the same oil you thought Petróleos de Venezuela was going to be exporting to you for $70 per barrel.

Gulf 'not threatened' by Iraq's oil output plans

KUWAIT CITY (AFP) – Energy-rich states of the Gulf Cooperation Council do not feel threatened by Iraq's plans to massively expand its oil production, Kuwait's foreign minister said on Tuesday.

Iraq has awarded a number of contracts to international oil companies with the aim of boosting its crude production from the current 2.5 million barrels per day to above 10 million bpd during the next several years.

"We are not threatened by Iraq's plans to expand its oil production," Sheikh Mohammad al-Sabah, whose country is the current president of the GCC, told a press conference.

Oil up above $71 as US crude supply seen higher

Oil prices edged above $71 a barrel Wednesday as the dollar weakened, but gains were tempered by a U.S. crude supply report showing an unexpected rise in inventories last week.

...U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly rose last week, the American Petroleum Institute said late Tuesday. Crude stocks rose 920,000 barrels while analysts had expected a drop of 2.0 million barrels, according to a survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.

Oil Rallying to $80 After Finding Support: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil is set to rally to $80 a barrel after finding support around $70, according to technical analysis by Auerbach Grayson, a brokerage in New York.

Prices will initially move up to challenge resistance at $75 a barrel, according to Richard Ross, an analyst at Auerbach Grayson. A close above $75 would set the market up to retest the $79-to-$80 area, Ross said.

Key Mackenzie pipeline report expected Dec. 31

CALGARY, Alberta, Dec 15 (Reuters) - A long-delayed regulatory report on the C$16.2 billion ($15.3 billion) Mackenzie gas pipeline from Canada's Arctic is likely to be released on Dec. 31, the Northwest Territories' industry minister said on Tuesday.

The report, to be issued by the Joint Review Panel examining the environmental, socioeconomic and cultural impact of the project, is needed before the National Energy Board (NEB) can rule on whether the line can proceed.

Woodside’s Pluto Among Oil, Gas Projects Targeted by Strike

(Bloomberg) -- Woodside Petroleum Ltd.’s A$13 billion ($11.7 billion) Pluto project will be disrupted by a four-day strike by employees contracted to provide services to Australia’s offshore oil and gas rigs, a union official said.

Angola’s Daily Crude Exports Are Scheduled to Drop in February

(Bloomberg) -- Angola, which is vying with Nigeria to be Africa’s biggest oil producer, plans to ship about 2.2 percent less crude oil per day in February than in the previous month, according to preliminary loading schedules.

Exxon LNG Project Arranges $14 Billion in Financing

(Bloomberg) -- The Exxon Mobil Corp.-led liquefied natural gas project in Papua New Guinea arranged as much as $14 billion in financing, clearing the way for construction to begin next year, said Oil Search Ltd., a partner in the venture.

The commitments from banks and export credit agencies will be more than enough to meet the anticipated $13 billion of debt required for the project, Port Moresby-based Oil Search said in a statement today. Oil Search has estimated the project will cost $15 billion. With financing costs, that would rise to about $18.3 billion, spokeswoman Ann Diamant said by telephone today.

Laurence tops cyclone scale

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has upgraded Cyclone Laurence to a category five storm - the highest possible grading - as its winds strengthened sharply, gusting up to 285 kilometres per hour.

Players operating in Laurence's path off Western Australia's Kimberley region have already evacuated installations and shut in output ahead of the cyclone's arrival.

“Laurence is a small but very intense tropical cyclone having very destructive winds,” the bureau said.

Kerala Plans 1st Islamic Bond as Dubai May Curb Funds

Islamic finance may help India raise the $500 billion it needs to spend on infrastructure by 2014 as it seeks to sustain the second-fastest pace of growth among major economies, according to national government estimates. Islamic bond sales almost doubled to a record $31 billion in 2007 on Arab oil earnings before plunging last year as the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. shuttered credit markets, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Crude oil will climb to $82 a barrel in the first quarter of next year from about $71 now as demand from emerging markets increases, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. forecasts.

Iran Missile Test May Increase Sanctions, Brown Says

(Bloomberg) -- Iran may face harsher sanctions over its nuclear program as a result of the Persian Gulf country’s latest test of a medium-range missile, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said.

“This is a matter of serious concern to the international community and it does make the case for us moving further on sanctions,” Brown told reporters after meeting with United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon in Copenhagen, where they are attending a summit on climate change.

The Tehran-Caracas Nuclear Axis

Iran would certainly require large and reliable supplies of uranium if it is going to enrich the nuclear fuel in 10 separate plants—an ambition Ahmadinejad spelled out last month. It would also require an extensive financial and logistical infrastructure network in Venezuela, not to mention unusually good political connections. All this it has in spades.

Exxon Mobil Makes $30 Billion Bet

It is our opinion that Peak Oil is a promotion of the powers-that-be, a positioning of energy resources so that the most power and wealth can be extracted from the least amount of product. Consider that in America especially - where we believe the promotion is most aggressive - much oil comes from overseas and a good deal of the rest comes from offshore. Meanwhile something like 60 percent of available land for prospecting is locked up by the federal government.

This is no coincidence in our humble opinion. If you want to take a resource and create demand for it as an expensive substance the first thing you need to do is make it scarce. And if you can't make it scarce, at least make it expensive to produce. This Big Oil has been able to do, it seems to us. It can't legislate scarcity but it can surely raise the barriers to entry. Want to drill for oil? Sure, but not in my backyard, or yours.

China Has No Plan to Change Fuel-Pricing Mechanism

(Bloomberg) -- China has no plan to change its fuel-pricing mechanism for now, a spokesman from the National Development and Reform Commission said by phone from Beijing.

Newspaper reports that the NDRC may shorten the calculation period for adjusting domestic gasoline and diesel prices to less than 22 days and that the government will ensure a 200 yuan ($29) a-metric-ton refining margin for refiners are “speculative”, the spokesman said today.

Russia labors as neighbors do deals

Russian officials insist that the Turkmenistan-China gas pipeline project, which this week passed an important milestone in its development, is not a matter of Moscow's concern. Moscow, however, has been struggling to sustain its earlier gas agreements with Ashgabat.

Qatar considers extra LNG for India

Qatar has agreed to consider India's request to supply an additional 5 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas per year on a long-term basis, India's Oil Ministry said today.

South Hook LNG U.K. Natural Gas Flows Reach Intraday Record

(Bloomberg) -- Natural-gas flows from the U.K.’s South Hook terminal into the network reached a record today as cold weather in Britain raised demand for the heating fuel.

EDF Connects Chinon-2 as French Power Demand Approaches Record

(Bloomberg) -- Electricite de France SA, Europe’s biggest power generator, started up the 900-megawatt Chinon-2 nuclear reactor as French power demand was forecast to reach near-record levels tomorrow amid a cold snap.

EDF now has three out of four reactors at the Chinon plant in operation with unit 3 halted for a once-a-decade inspection by safety authorities, according to a statement on the Paris- based utility’s Web site.

Nigeria destroys 600 illegal oil refineries

Nigeria's military has destroyed about 600 illegal oil refineries in the Niger Delta and arrested seven oil thieves, the military said on Tuesday.

Details of the refineries were not immediately available, but industry officials said they could be makeshift structures where oil thieves distil crude into fuel for sale in Nigeria, which experiences frequent disruptions in gasoline supplies.

Gold / Oil Price Ratio Favors Precious Metal Miners

Thus, while energy costs are a tremendously important factor in determining the profitability of any particular mine/miner, analyzing this dynamic is not as simple as we might believe at first glance. For those investors who do their homework, this should provide them with an advantage over many less-diligent buyers and sellers.

After classifying miners into those with open-pit operations and those with underground mines, investors must become familiar with how a miner's power needs are being met. Is it from the national energy-grid, or private generators? If from a national grid, is it hydro-power, oil-power, or perhaps even nuclear power (in more advanced jurisdictions)?

Congress should back energy incentives soon: Obama

ALEXANDRIA, Va (Reuters) - President Barack Obama on Tuesday urged U.S. lawmakers to create incentives for American households to weatherize their homes and said the program would essentially pay for itself.

"I am calling on Congress to provide new temporary incentives for Americans to make energy efficiency retrofit investments in their homes and we want them to do it soon," he said. "Insulation is sexy stuff," he told workers and employers at a Home Depot home supplies store near Washington.

World's largest solar energy project planned for Africa desert

British homes could soon be powered by "desert electricity", according to backers of a large solar energy project in the Sahara that will overtake current sites in Spain.

Are Rare Earth Minerals Too Costly for Environment?

It doesn't look very green. Rare earth processing in China is a messy, dangerous, polluting business. It uses toxic chemicals, acids, sulfates, ammonia. The workers have little or no protection.

But, without rare earth, Copenhagen means nothing. You buy a Prius hybrid car and think you're saving the planet. But each motor contains a kilo of neodymium and each battery more than 10 kilos of lanthanum, rare earth elements from China.

Climate change is natural: 100 reasons why

HERE are the 100 reasons, released in a dossier issued by the European Foundation, why climate change is natural and not man-made.

50 reasons why global warming isn't natural

Here we take a quick look at the first 50 of their claims - and debunk each one.

Traders Want Kyoto Targets as Minimum to Keep CO2 Markets Alive

(Bloomberg) -- Carbon traders want an extension of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol as a minimum to keep carbon markets alive because United Nations negotiators may need months or years to seal a wider climate pact including China and the U.S.

UN and national negotiators are meeting in Copenhagen this week to find a successor to the Kyoto accord, whose rules last until the end of 2012.

Shipping could cut emissions by 30% at zero-cost by 2030

The shipping industry could establish a 30% reduction in emissions by 2030 at zero cost to the industry, according to a new study conducted by DNV in line with the discussions taking place at the COP15 climate change summit.

Covering ships from all market segments, both from the existing fleet and newbuildings projected to be built in the years to come, the results of the study reveal that shipping, compared to a projected baseline (where no measures are applied) of 1,530 million tons of CO2, could create a reduction in emissions equalling to 500 million tons of CO2.

Climate change summit leaves sceptical Russia cold

Climate change and the environment are not big issues for most Russians - and most of the time the government seems equally unconcerned.

"Global warming, the Kyoto Protocol, cutting emissions, nuclear waste, incinerators - it might be a topic of discussion among Moscow's business elite, but the masses are nowhere near these issues. No-one's talking about them," said former Russian deputy prime minister Boris Nemtsov, an outspoken critic of the current Russian government.

"There is one popular opinion, though - that Russia is a cold country and warming it up slightly wouldn't do any harm."

Obama Faces ‘Constipagen’ on Global Warming Pact

(Bloomberg) -- World leaders will arrive in the Danish capital of Copenhagen in the next three days to agree on an accord to fight global warming. There may be nothing to sign.

Envoys from China, the U.S., the European Union and India, the world’s top polluters, have bickered, quarreled and walked out during talks among 193 nations. They’ve left presidents and prime ministers a choice between a fudge or a flop for the accord that the United Nations framed as the most comprehensive deal to curb global warming.

Khelil slams carbon tax plans

Carbon taxes discriminate against energy producing countries, Algerian Energy Minister Chakib Khelil said today, adding that Opec is united in opposing them.

Protests erupt at deadlocked climate conference

COPENHAGEN (AP) — Danish police fired pepper spray and beat protesters with batons outside the U.N. climate conference on Wednesday, as disputes inside left major issues unresolved just two days before world leaders hope to sign a historic agreement to fight global warming.

Canada climate stance pranksters revealed

COPENHAGEN –The infamous American pranksters known as The Yes Men launched an elaborate hoax Monday targeting Canada's stance in climate-change negotiations at Copenhagen.

The multi-pronged ruse tripped up a number of news organizations, including the Globe and Mail, the Huffington Post and Edmonton talk-radio host Dave Rutherford.

The global WWF Earth Hour Copenhagen event

Copenhagen will be the epicentre of the lights off campaign Earth Hour, as lights on City Hall Square are switched off for 60 minutes this evening, in a call to COP15 leaders to reach a pro-planet agreement. An inclusive, sensual form of protest, the darkness also highlights the potential effects of peak oil and the consequences for our energy driven lifestyle.

Sea levels set to rise more than expected due to 'deeply surprising' Greenland melt

A new study by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program estimates that the sea will rise by 0.5 to 1.5 meters by 2100, threatening coastal cities and flooding island nations. This is double the predicted rise estimated by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on climate Change (IPCC) in 2007, which did not incorporate sea level rise due to the melting of Greenland and Antarctica's ice sheets.

Most surprisingly, the study found that discharge from Greenland had increased by 30 percent over the last decade: jumping from 330 billion giga tons in 1995 to 430 billion giga tons in 2005.

SMT Reports Geoscientists See Coming Increases in Oil Prices

Approximately 50 percent of respondents predicted global peak oil supply to occur either between ten and twenty years from now, or beyond twenty years. The other 50 percent indicated that it had already occurred, or would occur within the next ten years. Chakrabarti commented that this data would serve as a principal "hot topic" for industry debates and forums in 2010.

"The issue of global peak oil has powerful economic and industry implications," he said. "As seismic technology continues to evolve, it will play an increasing role in assessing reservoir conditions and oil supply. Thus, we will continue a lead role in conducting surveys and monitoring market conditions to provide technological assessments as this issue manifests over the next few years."

Oil hovers below $70 in Europe after 9-day drop

Oil prices hovered below $70 a barrel on Tuesday, held down by high inventories and weak demand while investors awaited new data about the U.S. economy.

By early afternoon in Europe, benchmark crude for January delivery was up 10 cents at $69.61 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Monday, the contract fell 36 cents to settle at $69.51.

Prices have dropped over the previous nine days — the longest slide since 2001 — on investor doubts about a recovery in U.S. crude demand and as the dollar strengthened.

OPEC Raises Forecast Demand for Its Members’ Crude Oil in 2010

(Bloomberg) -- The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries raised the estimate for the amount of crude its members will have to pump next year as world consumption recovers.

OPEC, which produces about 40 percent of the world’s oil, predicts members will need to produce 28.61 million barrels a day to satisfy demand in 2010. That’s about 100,000 barrels a day more than last month’s projection and represents an increase in 30,000 barrels a day from 2009, the first annual rise in three years.

“Following two years of sharp declines, world oil demand is expected to return to growth in 2010,” OPEC’s Vienna-based secretariat said in a monthly report e-mailed today. “Fundamentals will continue to be weak in the first half of the year before improving in the second half.”

Producer prices higher than expected

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. producer prices rose more than expected in November, lifted by a surge in energy costs, and recorded the first year-on-year gain since last November, according to a government report on Tuesday.

The Labor Department said the seasonally adjusted index for prices paid at the farm and factory gate jumped 1.8 percent, the largest gain in three months, following a 0.3 percent rise in October.

Crude Oil to Resume Decline After Bounce: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil prices will probably continue to decline even after a short-term rise, according to technical analysis by Newedge Group.

West Texas Intermediate oil futures for February delivery are in “an underlying downtrend” that wouldn’t be affected by a small, short-term rise in prices, Veronique Lashinski, a senior research analyst at Newedge USA LLC, said in a note to clients yesterday.

Fiscal fears hit Mexico’s credit rating

Standard & Poor’s, the rating agency, on Monday downgraded Mexico on fiscal concerns stemming from the country’s falling oil output and anaemic growth prospects.

S&P;’s move is the second such blow to the centre-right administration of President Felipe Calderón in three weeks.

IATA: Costly Fuel Means More Woe for Airlines in 2010

GENEVA--The world's airlines are set to lose $5.6 billion next year, far more than previously estimated, with a rebound in passenger and air cargo demand only partly compensating for rising fuel costs, industry group IATA said.

In its latest outlook, the International Air Transport Association on Tuesday reaffirmed its projection for an $11 billion loss in 2009 -- a year its chief Giovanni Bisignani called "an Annus Horribilis" for the highly cyclical sector.

Don't Expect Lower Oil Prices for Much Longer

But do you honestly feel that oil prices will fall below $60 per barrel?

I just don't see how that would be possible, especially considering the supply threat that peak oil presents. And it's scary to think there are people out there who believe global oil production will reach over 115 million barrels per day by 2030.

Larry Reynolds

Larry is the author of The Trust Effect and numerous published articles on leadership and organisational change. Here's a sample - The influencing skills of Barack Obama. His latest book, Climate Change and Peak Oil - Threat or Opportunity? will be published in 2010.

"If this scenario came to pass, what would be the opportunities for business?" Watch a video of Larry Reynolds hosting a debate on the issue.

Oil Rigs Close Near Australia as Cyclone Intensifies

(Bloomberg) -- Tropical Cyclone Laurence, Australia’s first storm of the season, is intensifying as it moves closer to the northwestern coast, triggering evacuations of offshore oil and gas rigs.

The storm, now off Western Australia’s Kimberley region, was upgraded to a category three on a scale of one to five and at 8 a.m. local time today was 85 kilometers (53 miles) north of the town of Kalumburu, moving southwest at 8 kilometers an hour, the Bureau of Meteorology said on its Web site.

Gazprom Resumes Gas Deliveries Halted After Finding Explosive

(Bloomberg) -- OAO Gazprom “fully” resumed deliveries through the gas network in the southern Russian region of Ingushetia by 7:25 p.m. yesterday, after halting flows when an explosive device was found, the Moscow-based gas export monopoly said today in an e-mailed statement.

Total Says Strike at Feyzin Oil Refinery Affects Two Units

(Bloomberg) -- Total SA, Europe’s largest refiner, said a strike at its Feyzin plant in France is affecting two production units, as talks continue over pay.

The labor disruption is affecting exports of refined products from the site, Michael Crochet-Vourey, a spokesman for the Paris-based company, said today by telephone, without specifying lost output or the units concerned.

China ends Russia's grip on Turkmen gas

With one flick of a switch, Russia's long-standing dominance and near monopoly over Central Asian natural-gas exports officially came to an end on Monday.

The Turkmenistan-China pipeline, which will carry natural gas from eastern Turkmenistan through Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan into China's northwestern Xinjiang region, went on line on December 14 during an inauguration ceremony attended by regional leaders. It marks the first time in more than a decade that a pipeline has been constructed to pump gas out of the region, and is the biggest effort to date to export Central Asian gas without using Russian routes.

Lyondell Files Plan to Reorganize, Mulls Reliance Bid

(Bloomberg) -- Lyondell Chemical Co. filed a plan to reorganize even as it evaluates an offer from Reliance Industries Ltd., pitting India’s biggest company against lenders in a battle for the bankrupt chemical maker.

Lyondell plans to reorganize by repaying its $8 billion bankruptcy loan in full and giving an equity stake in the new company to lenders, including sponsors of a $2.8 billion rights offering. The plan, outlined in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Manhattan, “won’t preclude Reliance from making a bid if it chooses to do so,” said Lyondell spokesman David Harpole.

Big Oil Seen Running ‘Race to the Altar’ After Exxon’s XTO Deal

(Bloomberg) -- Exxon Mobil Corp.’s $30 billion purchase of XTO Energy Inc., the largest U.S. petroleum takeover since 2006, may signal a wave of acquisitions as major producers seek to tap growing gas and oil output from shale formations.

Exxon Invests Big in Unconventional Natural Gas -- a Climate Bet?

If XTO Energy's shareholders endorse the deal, Exxon's purchase of one of the nation's largest independent natural gas producers will give it access to gas shale fields in the Rocky Mountain, Great Plains, Texas and Appalachia regions. The move by Exxon, which is known for taking a conservative approach to mergers and acquisitions, could further reinforce industry claims that a 100-year supply of natural gas rests under the continental United States.

The purchase also places a significant bet that natural gas demand will increase if Congress and the Obama administration lock in a U.S. climate policy that puts a price on carbon dioxide emissions.

Indian State Refiners Spend $5 Billion on Clean Fuels

(Bloomberg) -- Indian Oil Corp., the nation’s second-biggest refiner, and its state-run rivals are spending 235 billion rupees ($5 billion) to produce cleaner fuels and meet stricter emissions guidelines.

Palm Oil Futures May Climb 19% by March, Mistry Says

(Bloomberg) -- Palm oil futures may advance 19 percent by the end of the first quarter, said Dorab Mistry, director of Godrej International Ltd., one of India’s biggest importers of vegetable oils.

Palm oil may gain to 2,800 ringgit to 3,000 ringgit per metric ton ($820 to $879) by the end of March, said Mistry in remarks prepared for delivery at a conference in New Delhi. He was reiterating a Dec. 4 prediction that the commodity would increase to 3,000 ringgit by the end of March.

Toyota To Sell Plug-In Hybrids To Consumers In 2 Years

TOKYO - Toyota Motor Corp will begin selling "affordable" plug-in hybrid cars in 2011, upping the ante on General Motors and Nissan Motor as they aim to take the lead in the field of rechargeable cars.

Toyota's first plug-in model, the Prius Plug-In Hybrid (PHV), adds an external charging function and more batteries to the popular Prius to enable longer-distance driving on electricity alone.

Because it can also run on gasoline, plug-in hybrids -- such as GM's upcoming Volt due for sale next year -- eliminate the "range anxiety" seen as one of the main shortcomings of battery-powered pure electric cars.

GE, Google Say Consumers Need More Energy Data to Cut Pollution

(Bloomberg) -- General Electric Co. and Google Inc. said governments need to provide consumers with more information about how they are using power and how much it costs to help them consume and pollute less.

Armed with real time pricing and energy consumption data could result in consumers using 15 percent less power, the two companies said in a joint statement today at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen.

Fuel Film Review

Fuel starts with a little Josh Tickell history, how he and his family used to enjoy the unsullied Australian environment only to move to the southern US States, his mother’s homeland, and be banned from swimming in the bayous, not being allowed to eat the fish, don’t drink the water and often not even breathe the air.

Not one for sitting still, Tickell set off across the US in his bio-diesel eco-van in an attempt to show that there was an alternative to fossil fuel oil. The van, kitted out with its own oil-cleaning system, was topped up along the way with used oil from fast food restaurants.

In Transition 1.0: Transition Towns Documentary Available Free (Video)

When I posted the trailer for In Transition—the documentary about the Transition Towns movement as a response to peak oil and climate change—commenter CB was less than enamored with the film making style. Maybe now CB can judge the entire movie, as the makers have just released the entire thing for viewing free on YouTube. Click below the fold for parts one and two.

The talk of impending peak oil and climate change might give fodder to those who talk about the dark side of transition towns, but the ultimate message is one of hope—namely that it's time to roll up your sleeves and get engaged with the challenges we face.

Kenya: Power Project Will Condemn Thousands to Lasting Poverty

Nairobi — DESPITE NUMEROUS WARNINGS about the potential impact of the Gibe III Hydroelectric Project on Lake Turkana, our leaders shout "work must go on".

This was quite apparent at a meeting hosted by the African Development Bank on November 18 during which directors, chief executives and other senior staff from the Finance and Energy ministries, KPLC, KenGen, and Ethiopia Electric Power Company met to discuss energy development plans.

Most back a treaty on global warming

WASHINGTON — A solid majority of Americans support the idea of a global treaty that would require the United States to reduce significantly greenhouse gas emissions, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, although many also express concern about the potential impact on the economy.

The results provide some encouragement for President Obama, who attends the United Nations conference on climate change in Copenhagen on Friday. By 55%-38%, those surveyed endorse a binding accord to limit the gases tied to global warming.

British wildlife faces climate change devastation, warns Environment Agency

Rising temperatures and sea levels brought on by climate change could have devastating effects on British wildlife from salmon to wildfowl, the Environment Agency warned.

Fishermen Say Carbon Dioxide Having ‘Really Scary’ Ocean Effect

(Bloomberg) -- Jeremy Brown, a fisherman from the Pacific Northwest, is pulling things from the ocean he says are so disturbing that he came to Washington to warn U.S. lawmakers about it.

“This is not overfishing, this is something far larger,” said Brown, one of 10 people who met with lawmakers and legislative aides this week on behalf of the Sustainable Fisheries Partnership, a San Francisco-based group that advises seafood producers on fishing practices.

Monsanto Wins Angry Mermaid Award for Hindering Climate Action

(Bloomberg) -- Monsanto Co., the world’s largest seed producer and maker of genetically modified crops, won the so-called Angry Mermaid award handed out by The Friends of the Earth for undermining efforts to deal with climate change.

The Amsterdam-based group said Monsanto took 37 percent of the vote, followed by Royal Dutch Shell Plc at 18 percent and the American Petroleum Institute with 14 percent. A total of 9,800 people voted globally, the group said.

Japan Plans $10 Billion in Aid for Global Warming, Dow Reports

(Bloomberg) -- Japan plans to provide $10 billion in aid for developing countries to help counter global warming, Dow Jones reported, citing the Tokyo Shimbun newspaper.

UN Climate Envoys Clash Over Funding for Poor Nations

(Bloomberg) -- United Nations negotiators failed to agree on financial aid that industrialized nations such as the U.S. and Japan will give to the developing world for coping with climate change, threatening a global-warming accord.

With China and India seeking about $200 billion a year for developing states, envoys are bargaining over options for aid beginning after 2012, each without financial commitments, according to a draft agreement released today. The talks among 192 countries end Dec. 18, and developing nations say they’ll reject an accord to curb global warming that has no money.

Black carbon deposits on Himalayan ice threaten Earth's 'Third Pole'

WASHINGTON – Black soot deposited on Tibetan glaciers has contributed significantly to the retreat of the world's largest non-polar ice masses, according to new research by scientists from NASA and the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Soot absorbs incoming solar radiation and can speed glacial melting when deposited on snow in sufficient quantities.

Temperatures on the Tibetan Plateau -- sometimes called Earth's "third pole" -- have warmed by 0.3°C (0.5°F) per decade over the past 30 years, about twice the rate of observed global temperature increases. New field research and ongoing quantitative modeling suggests that soot's warming influence on Tibetan glaciers could rival that of greenhouse gases.

"Tibet's glaciers are retreating at an alarming rate," said James Hansen, coauthor of the study and director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York City. "Black soot is probably responsible for as much as half of the glacial melt, and greenhouse gases are responsible for the rest."

Presented by Tim Pugh, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR) Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Australia.

Recorded November 14, 2009 by Deirdre Straughan at the Sun HPC Consortium in Portland. Download for iPod

From today’s Agence France-Press: SYDNEY (AFP) – Australian authorities Friday issued a shipping alert over a gigantic iceberg that is gradually approaching the country’s southwest coast. The Bureau of Meteorology said the once-in-a-century cliff of ice, which dislodged from Antarctica about a decade ago before drifting north, was being monitored using satellites. “Mariners are advised that at 1200 GMT [...]

Australia's Bureau of Meteorology issued a shipping alert Friday after a massive iceberg was spotted 1,100 miles (1,700 kilometers) off the country's southwestern coast. Glaciologist Neal Young of the Australian Antarctic Division spotted the iceberg on satellite imaging. It is 12 miles (19 kilometers) long and 5 miles (8 kilometers) wide, and is edging slowly northeastward ...

Australia's Bureau of Meteorology issued a shipping alert fullstory:yesterday after a massive iceberg was spotted 1,700km off the country's southwestern coast. Glaciologist Neal Young of the Australian Antarctic Division spotted the iceberg on satellite imaging. It is 19km long and 8km wide, and is edging slowly northeastward toward Western Australia state, Young said in a statement. Young said the iceberg is one of several that split off in Antarctica in 2000 when parts of two major ice shelves - the Ross Sea Ice Shelf and Ronne Ice Shelf - fractured. New Zealand issued a shipping alert last month after authorities spotted a flotilla of icebergs heading toward South Island. Those icebergs have since moved east, away from New Zealand. The iceberg is expected to break up as it moves north into warmer waters, resulting in hundreds of smaller icebergs that could be hazardous to ships. Icebergs are routinely sloughed off as part of the natural development of ice shelves.