It's becoming clearer that the foreclosure mess is likely to require some sort of federal response. In a good scenario, agencies like Fannie and Freddie can simply take of this on their own. In a bad scenario, where investors are able to push the rotten mortgages back onto the banks that sold them, we could be looking at another insolvency crisis.

But there's opportunity here, too. The foreclosure mess is new, but the foreclosure crisis has been going on for years now, and homeowners still need help. That the banks were this lazy and shoddy and potentially fraudulent when the consequences would be on them is a good reminder of how many homeowners were sold mortgages that they not only didn't understand, but that were simply misrepresented to them.

If we have to help the banks get through this, then we also need to do more to help the homeowners get through this. A good start would be allowing courts to negotiate down principal balances to help underwater homeowners (that's the "cramdown" idea that the House passed and the Senate rejected some months ago), and another idea would be expanding right-to-rent, where foreclosed homeowners have the right to rent their home at fair market value. Either way, it's increasingly clear that if the banks need help to stay out of trouble, they're going to get it. But as the full dysfunction of the mortgage markets continues to reveal itself, it's time to do more for the distressed homeowners the market got into trouble.

Welcome to Wonkbook.

Top Stories

Federal regulators are beginning to address the foreclosure mess -- but mostly just by having banks conduct internal reviews, report Zachary Goldfarb, Dina ElBoghdady and Ariana Eunjung Cha: "While [the Federal Housing Finance Agency] does not oversee banks or most other financial firms directly, the regulator can still exert pressure by way of its authority over Fannie and Freddie, which now own or guarantee well over half the nation's home loans. If banks and other lenders do follow the policy prescriptions, the FHFA could threaten to impose financial penalties and other sanctions. The policy statement tells lenders to make sure that documents used as part of the foreclosure were properly reviewed and signed. If they weren't, lenders must work with local lawyers on a fix. This could include filing new paperwork."

The American people should get mortgage help in return for the bank bailouts, writes Tim Fernholz: "Fannie and Freddie own or insure most of the mortgages in the U.S., and the government could overlook the paperwork irregularities so that Fannie and Freddie can absorb the losses rather than send them back to the banks...People suffering from employment problems, those whose mortgages are underwater due to the drop in home prices, and the victims of fraud should have the opportunity for deep principle write downs and substantial loan modifications. Those have been hard to access because servicers devote few resources to working out sustainable loan agreements with borrowers. That could change if the government has the option of putting a serious package of bad loans back onto the banks - primarily Bank of America, J.P. Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citibank."

Sen. Mary Landrieu is refusing to release her hold on OMB nominee Jack Lew: http://bit.ly/aADayP

Congressional liberals want the Bush tax cuts for income over $250,000 to end in order to reduce income inequality, reports Lori Montgomery: "'I just really believe it's an argument we can win,' said Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio). 'If you look at our tax structure from World War II to 1980, we had a system where the wealthiest paid more, we kept reinvesting back into our country, and we had a strong middle class.' Since then, the rich have raked in a growing share of the nation's income even as their tax rates have fallen. 'It's just been this sucking sound up the ladder to the wealthiest Americans,' he said...Rep. Sander Levin (D-Mich.), chairman of the tax-writing House Ways and Means Committee, wants to go further in taxing the wealthy, by treating their dividends - a large chunk of earnings in top households - as regular income."

Insurers will be able to charge more from families with sick children if they ask for insurance outside open enrollment periods, reports Robert Pear: "In September, the administration said that insurers could establish open-enrollment periods — for example, one month a year — during which they would accept all children. Now, on Wednesday, the administration, answering a question raised by many insurers, said they could charge higher premiums to sick children outside the open-enrollment period, if state laws allowed such underwriting, as many do....The problem may be solved in 2014. If Democrats can beat back Republican efforts to dismantle the law, most Americans will be required to carry health insurance, starting in 2014, and insurers will be required to accept all applicants, regardless of pre-existing conditions."

Got tips, additions, or comments? E-mail me.

Jon Cohn offers a simple test to apply to stories touting big disruptions from the Affordable Care Act: "Here are three basic questions to ask every time you hear a story about changes the Affordable Care Act is unleashing: 1) Is something actually changing? 2) Is the change related to the Affordable Care Act? 3) Is the change really for the worse?" As he details, the stories we're hearing fail at least one of the tests more often than you'd think.

Live indie interlude: Beach House plays "Norway".

Still to come: Fannie and Freddie have begun investigating the foreclosure mess; the oil spill commission is split over the future of deepwater drilling; Obama calls for extending a tax break for students; and a man builds an airplane from scratch.

Economy/Foreclosures

Fannie and Freddie have started investigating the foreclosure mess, report Nick Timiraos and Carrick Mollenkamp: "Last Friday, Freddie told mortgage servicers to stop sending cases to the Law Offices of David J. Stern, of Plantation, Fla. Fannie followed suit on Monday. The law firm has been at the center of recent allegations by the Florida attorney general's office, which released a deposition of a former law-firm employee. In the deposition, the employee alleged the firm routinely forged notarized documents amid closed-door screaming matches that broke out because files weren't moved fast enough...Fannie and Freddie have hired separate firms to review the foreclosures handled by Stern's offices."

Fast trading may have left big banks without proper mortgage documents, report Ariana Eunjung Cha and Jia Lynn Yang: "The foreclosure debacle has exposed one of Wall Street's little-known practices: For more than a decade, big lenders sold millions of mortgages around the globe at lightning speed without properly transferring the physical documents that prove who legally owned the loans. Now, some of the pension systems, hedge funds and other investors that took big losses on the loans are seeking to use this flaw to force banks to compensate them or even invalidate the mortgage trades themselves. Their collective actions, if successful, could blow a hole through the balance sheets of big banks and raise fundamental questions about the financial system, financial analysts and a lawmaker said."

Critics are pouncing on Obama's admission that "there's no such thing as shovel-ready projects": http://politi.co/9t9ola

Investors believe Fed action is imminent, reports David Hilzenrath: "Several corporate earnings reports might have contributed to the market's optimism, but analysts said that the minutes of a Federal Reserve policy meeting released Tuesday raised expectations that the Fed will buy a boatload of Treasury bonds. 'There's a growing acceptance that the Fed will likely be successful in driving asset prices, including the equity market, higher,' said Barry Knapp, an equity strategist at Barclays Capital. Said Joseph Battipaglia, a market strategist at the brokerage and investment bank Stifel Nicolaus: 'With a day to think about it, the conclusion is they're going to do something sooner than later' and 'it may well be substantial.'"

The auto and bank bailouts don't get the respect they deserve, writes David Ignatius: http://wapo.st/a4kexz

The IMF is partly to blame for currency disputes with China, writes Simon Johnson: "Its handling of the Asian financial crisis in 1997-1998 severely antagonized leading middle-income emerging-market countries - and they still believe that the Fund does not have their interests at heart...As a result, emerging-market countries, aiming to ensure that they avoid needing financial support from the IMF in the foreseeable future, are increasingly following China’s lead and trying to ensure that they, too, run current-account surpluses. In practice, this means fervent efforts to prevent their currencies from appreciating in value."

Great moments in hobbyism interlude: A Kenyan man with no engineering knowledge makes an airplane from scratch.

Energy

Even a more competent White House couldn't have passed cap and trade, writes David Leonhardt: "The most obvious Republican suspects for a bipartisan bill -- Olympia Snow, Susan Collins, George LeMieux -- simply were not going to vote for it, as Mr. Lizza’s reporting makes clear. Republican leaders have done a very good job of keeping defections to a minimum over the last two years. Meanwhile, the Democrats faced much more internal opposition than on health reform. Evan Bayh, Kent Conrad, Byron Dorgan, Carte Goodwin, Blanche Lincoln, Ben Nelson, Jay Rockefeller and Jim Webb all looked like questions marks or worse."

The recession, Senate opposition, and industry lobbying killed cap and trade, writes Daniel Weiss: http://bit.ly/d4Kdeo

Clean energy investment should supplement, not replace, a carbon price, writes David Roberts: "Climate policy is not a zero-sum game. These policies work in concert. The carbon price raises the unit cost of dirty energy while efficiency and public investment drive it down. Charging polluters for their climate pollution (and removing existing subsidies to dirty energy) can help raise the money to spend on investment. Regulation can create tangible short-term benefits for the public and help drive industry to the table to negotiate legislation. All the pieces work together and there's no reason they can't all be pushed simultaneously at every level of government."

The spill commission is split on deepwater drilling's future, reports Siobhan Hughes: "William Reilly, a co-chairman of the panel and head of the Environmental Protection Agency under President George H.W. Bush, expressed cautious support for a conclusion that endorsed continued, if closely regulated, deep-water drilling. He previously had criticized the Obama administration's ban on new deep-water drilling, a ban lifted Tuesday...But commissioner Cherry Murray, the dean of the Harvard School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, said, 'The hazards of ultra deep-water need to be spelled out a little bit more.'...'If you went to all electric cars, 70% of our oil usage would go away,' responded Ms. Murray."

Solar power jobs are set to grow 26% this year: http://bit.ly/dq26YU

Human activity far exceeds the earth's capability to support it, reports Felicity Barringer: "If business continues as usual, the report predicts, 'humanity will be using resources and land at the rate of two planets each year by 2030, and just over 2.8 planets each year by 2050.' The editorial team that produced the latest report writes that human demand on the planet’s ecosystems more than doubled between 1961 and 2007. Humankind is now consuming the planet’s resources at a rate that outstrips the natural replenishment of those resources by 50 percent."

Some see the EPA's ethanol decision as political pandering: http://politi.co/c8ZHq1

Advertising interlude: ING Direct experiments with human billboards.

Domestic Policy

Obama wants to make permanent a tax credit for college students, reports Lori Montgomery: "The credit provides as much as $2,500 a year per student to cover expenses ranging from tuition payments to other expenses, such as books and supplies. According to a new report by the Treasury Department, the credit has significantly expanded aid to the 12.5 million students who took advantage of it last year, raising their annual benefit to an average of $1,736 - a 75 percent increase over the Hope Credit and Lifetime Learning Credit, two earlier federal tuition-assistance programs. The tax credit is also more broadly available than those programs, which were limited to expenses incurred during the first two years of college instead of four."

The FCC is taking on cell phone "bill shock": http://wapo.st/aC9iAH

Medicare's actuary admits health care reform could cost some seniors, reports Jennifer Haberkorn: "Richard Foster, the actuary for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid, also tells Senate Republicans that the overhaul will result in 'less generous benefit packages' for Medicare Advantage plans next year. Foster is independent from the administration and non-partisan. Democrats have long contended that Medicare Advantage plans - private insurance alternatives to Medicare - overpay private insurers, increasing premiums for everyone, and needs to be reformulated."

Social Security benefits are staying constant: http://politi.co/dof4fe

Chile and Australia are handling their aging populations most responsibly, write Richard Jackson, Neil Howe, and Keisuke Nakashima: http://nyti.ms/9rzbgG

States should push market-based changes to health care reform, write Scott Gottlieb and Tom Miller: "ObamaCare intends health-care exchanges to be a regulatory dragnet to trap insurers into offering a single government-prescribed set of health benefits. State-designed exchanges could, and should, do the opposite. Any willing insurers already licensed to operate in a state should be able to offer plans. Their operating rules would focus on providing better information to consumers, rather than limiting the types of plans available. Exchanges should also enable easier allocation of private payments and public subsidies, simplify enrollment, and reduce transaction costs."

Closing credits: Wonkbook is compiled and produced with help from Dylan Matthews, Mike Shepard, and Michelle Williams. Photo credit: J Pat Carter Photo

The following is a list of undrafted free agents who signed with NFL teams following the conclusion of the 2010 NFL draft. Players are listed by team, in alphabetical order, with their position and school.

Arizona Cardinals
QB Max Hall, BYU
CB A.J. Jefferson, Fresno State
OT Casey Knips, South Dakota State
WR Max Komar, Idaho
RB Alfonso Smith, Kentucky
WR Juamorris Stewart, Southern
OT Devin Tyler, Temple
WR Stephen Williams, Toledo

Atlanta Falcons
TE Leroy Banks, Southern Miss
QB Tim Buckley, Alcorn State
S Rafael Bush, South Carolina State
CB Gabe Derricks, San Diego
LS Justin Drescher, Colorado
OLB Weston Johnson, Wyoming
RB Dimitri Nance, Arizona State
TE Michael Palmer, Clemson
TE Colin Peek, Alabama
WR Ryan Wolfe, UNLV
LB Bear Woods, Troy

Baltimore Ravens
S Morgan Cox, Tennessee
ILB Mike McLaughlin, Boston College
CB Prince Miller, Georgia
CB Josh Morris, Weber State
RB Curtis Steele, Memphis

Buffalo Bills
RB Joique Bell, Wayne State
OLB Antonio Coleman, Auburn
CB John Destin, Tulsa
OG Jorge Guerra, Texas A&M-Kingsville
S Dominique Harris, Temple
S Brett Johnson, California
WR Donald Jones, Youngstown State
WR David Nelson, Florida
WR Naaman Roosevelt, Buffalo
CB Stephan Virgil, Virginia Tech

Carolina Panthers
OG Kurtis Gregory, Missouri
S Matt O'Hanlon, Panthers
DT Andre Neblett, Temple
OT Mark Ortmann, Michigan
PK Aaron Pettrey, Ohio State
WR Oliver Young, South Carolina State

Chicago Bears
WR Freddie Barnes, Bowling Green
CB Cornelius Brown, UTEP
OT Levi Horn, Montana
WR Greg Mathews, Michigan
LB Matt Mayberry, Indiana
RB Brandon Minor, Michigan
WR Antonio Robinson, Nicholls State
DT Jimmy Saddler-McQueen, Texas A&M-Kingsville
S Quentin Scott, Northern Iowa
DE Barry Turner, Nebraska
C Tim Walter, Colorado State
DE Laurence Wilson, Ohio State

Cincinnati Bengals
DE Rahim Alem, LSU
TE Jeff Cottam, Tennessee
RB Cordera Eason, Mississippi
S Bryan Evans, Georgia
S Jeromy Miles, Massachusetts
LB Vincent Rey, Duke
RB Mikell Simpson, Virginia
FB Joe Tronzo, Louisville
LS Mike Windt, Cincinnati

Cleveland Browns
OT Casey Bender, South Dakota State
OLB Auston English, Oklahoma
OT Joel Reinders, Waterloo
TE Troy Wagner, Indiana

Dallas Cowboys
OT Will Barker, Virginia
S Barry Church, Toledo
C Phil Costa, Maryland
FB Chris Gronkowski, Arizona
WR Terrell Hudgins, Elon
CB Bryan McCann, SMU
S Danny McCray, LSU
RB Lonyae Miller, Fresno State
QB Matt Nichols, Eastern Washington
OG Chet Teofilo, California
OT Mike Tepper, California
DE Lorenzo Washington, Alabama

Denver Broncos
WR Alric Arnett, West Virginia
DT Jaron Baston, Missouri
RB Chris Brown, Oklahoma
S Marcellus Bowman, Boston College
TE Riar Geer, Colorado
OT Chris Marinelli, Stanford
S Kyle McCarthy, Notre Dame
TE Nathan Overbay, Eastern Washington
OG Michael Shumard, Texas A&M
CB Cassius Vaughn, Mississippi

Detroit Lions
CB Aaron Berry, Pittsburgh
DT Rob Calloway, Saginaw Valley State
FB Matt Clapp, Oklahoma
TE Richard Dickson, LSU
WR Mike Moore, Georgia
LB Ryan Stamper, Florida

Green Bay Packers
OT Chris Campbell, Eastern Illinois
RB Troy Harrison, Southern Miss
ILB Alex Joseph, Temple
OLB Tim Knicky, Stephen F. Austin
WR Jeff Moturi, UTEP
FB Quinn Porter, Stillman (Ala.)
OLB John Russell, Wake Forest
QB Noah Shepard, South Dakota
CB Sam Shields, Miami (Fla.)
S Robert Vaughn, Connecticut
WR Chastin West, Fresno State
DE Frank Zombo, Central Michigan

Indianapolis Colts
S David Caldwell, William & Mary
QB Tim Hiller, Western Michigan
RS Brandon James, Florida
RB Javarris James, Miami (Fla.)
CB Brandon King, Purdue
OT Jeff Linkenbach, Cincinnati
S Mike Newton, Buffalo
PK Brett Swenson, Michigan State
ILB Vuna Tuihalamaka, Arizona
CB Thad Turner, Ohio
WR Blair White, Michigan State

Houston Texans
FB Jack Corcoran, Rutgers
FB Isaiah Greenhouse, Northwestern State (La.)
TE Steve Maneri, Temple
OT Cole Pemberton, Colorado State
QB Tyler Sheehan, Bowling Green
OT Adam Ulatoski, Texas
S Aaron Webster, Cincinnati

Jacksonville Jaguars
OT Daniel Baldridge, Marshall
OLB Kyle Bosworth, UCLA
TE Mike Caussin, James Madison
LB Jacob Cutrera, LSU
C John Estes, Hawaii
CB Josh Gordy, Central Michigan
TE Jason Harmon, Florida Atlantic
QB Trevor Harris, Edinboro
OT Kevin Haslam, Rutgers
CB Chris Hawkins, LSU
RB Chad Kackert, New Hampshire
P Robert Malone, Fresno State
WR Chris McGaha, Arizona State
DE Aaron Morgan, Louisiana-Monroe
DT Kommonya Quaye, South Dakota
FB Ben Stallings, Lambuth
WR Roren Thomas, Lindenwood
S Terrell Whitehead, Norfolk State

Kansas City Chiefs
DT Garrett Brown, Minnesota
OLB Justin Cole, San Jose State
TE T.C. Drake, Kentucky
OT Tyler Eastman, Maine
WR Rich Gunnell, Boston College
WR Jeremy Horne-Murdock, Massachusetts
OT Lemuel Jeanpierre, South Carolina
LB Mike Johnson, North Alabama
FB Tervaris Johnson, Miami (Fla.)
OT Nick Landry, Tulane
OL Andrew Lewis, Oklahoma State
PK Austin Signor, Eastern Illinois

Miami Dolphins
S Jonathan Amaya, Nevada
DT Travis Ivey, Maryland
WR Marlon Moore, Fresno State
DT Vince Oghobaase, Duke
CB A.J. Wallace, Penn State
WR Roberto Wallace, San Diego State
CB Ross Weaver, Michigan State

Minnesota Vikings
QB R.J. Archer, William & Mary
OG Thomas Austin, Clemson
OT Matt Hanson, Midwestern State
C Tommy Hernandez, Cal-Davis
WR Aaron Rhea, Stephen F. Austin
S Terrell Skinner, Maryland
WR Ray Small, Ohio State
WR Kelton Tindal, Newberry
CB Angelo Williams, Ferris State
OT Marlon Winn, Texas Tech

New England Patriots
WR Bryan Anderson, Central Michigan
S Sergio Brown, Notre Dame
OLB Dane Fletcher, Montana State
DT Kyle Love, Mississippi State
RB Pat Paschall, North Dakota State
S Ross Ventrone, Villanova
DL John Wise, Illinois

New Orleans Saints
OLB Jason Beauchamp, UNLV
OG Brandon Carter, Texas Tech
S Harry Coleman, LSU
DE Junior Galette, Stillman
LS Clint Gresham, TCU
QB A.J. McKenna, Albany State
CB Rafael Priest, TCU
DT Jay Ross, East Carolina
NT Ekom Udofia, Stanford
CB Marcell Young, Jacksonville State

New York Giants
TE Jake Ballard, Ohio State
WR Duke Calhoun, Memphis
DT Nate Collins, Virginia
OG Jim Cordle, Ohio State
RB Daniel Dufrene, Illinois
OL Dennis Landolt, Giants
DE Ayanga Okpowkowuruk, Duke
QB Dom Randolph, Holy Cross
CB Leon Wright, Duke

New York Jets
DE Kevin Basped, Nevada
OL Keith Buckman, North Dakota State
TE Jeff Cumberland, Illinois
WR Phillip Kirkland, Bethune-Cookman
OLB Cory Reamer, Alabama
OG Charlie Tanner, Texas
CB Donovan Warren, Michigan
DT Mick Williams, Pittsburgh

Oakland Raiders
RB Andre Anderson, Tulane
DE Alex Daniels, Cincinnati
WR Trent Guy, Louisville
FB Chane Moline, UCLA
OG Alex Parsons, USC
FB Manase Tonga, BYU

Philadelphia Eagles
DT Charles Alexander, LSU
WR Blue Cooper, Tennessee-Chattanooga
QB Joey Elliott, Purdue
RB Keith Flemming, West Texas A&M
WR Kevin Jurovich, San Jose State
OT Jeraill McCuller, North Carolina State
WR Pat Simonds, Colgate
FB Chris Zardas, UMASS

Pittsburgh Steelers
OL Ciron Black, LSU
OG Dorian Brooks, James Madison
S Damon Cromartie-Smith, UTEP
RB Andre Dixon, UCONN
OT Kyle Jolly, North Carolina
DE Cordarrow Thompson, Virginia Tech
C A.J. Trump, Miami (Fla.)
OLB Lindsey Witten, Connecticut

San Diego Chargers
WR Seyi Ajirotutu, Fresno State
TE Richie Brockel, Boise State
OG Jeff Hansen, Montana State
RB Jordyn Jackson, Eastern Oregon
OT Justin Jeffries, Kentucky
DE Jason Lamb, Baylor
OLB Brandon Lang, Troy
OT Nic Richmond, TCU
WR Marcel Thompson, Lindenwood
WR Bryan Walters, Cornell
WR Jeremy Wiliams, Tulane

San Francisco 49ers
RB LeGarrette Blount, Oregon
QB Jarrett Brown, West Virginia
WR Shay Hodge, Mississippi
WR Scott Long, Louisville
S Chris Maragos, Wisconsin
WR Jared Perry, Missouri
CB Patrick Stoudamire, Western Illinois
RS LeRoy Vann, Florida A&M

Seattle Seahawks
S James Brindley, Utah State
CB Marcus Brown, Arkansas State
OT Kyle Burkhart, Southern Mississippi
C-OG Jeff Byers, USC
OLB Reggie Carter, UCLA
TE Patrick Devenny, Colorado
DE Kevin Dixon, Troy
DT DeMarcus Granger, Oklahoma
WR Quintin Hancock, Tennessee
S Will Harris, USC
OG Adrian Martinez, Colorado State
ILB Joe Pawelek, Baylor
OT Jacob Phillips, Bellhaven
S Josh Pinkard, USC
DL Rob Rose, Ohio State

St. Louis Rams
DE Adrian Davis, Arkansas
S Jeromy Jones, Idaho
OLB Simoni Lawrence, Minnesota
QB Thaddeus Lewis, Duke
TE Jamie McCoy, Texas A&M
WR Brandon McRae, Mississippi State
WR Rod Owens, Florida State
LB Kennedy Tinsley, North Carolina
RB Keith Toston, Oklahoma State
RB DeMaundray Woolridge, Idaho

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
DT Brandon Gilbeaux, Delaware
OT Derek Hardman, Eastern Kentucky
PK Hunter Lawrence, Texas
OLB Rico McCoy, Tennessee
WR Preston Parker, North Alabama
ILB Ryan Reeves, Wayne State
OG Sergio Render, Virginia Tech
QB Jevan Snead, Mississippi
C Jared Zwilling, Purdue

Tennessee Titans
TE Gerald Harris, Mississippi
OG Nick Howell, USC
RB Stafon Johnson, USC
RB Dominique Lindsay, East Carolina
WR Mico McSwain, North Alabama
C Kevin Matthews, Texas A&M
FB William Rose, Florida Atlantic
WR Bobby Sewall, Brown
OLB Patrick Trahan, Mississippi

Washington Redskins
S Anderson Russell, Ohio State
TE Logan Paulsen, UCLA
DT Marques Slocum, Eastern Arizona
RB Keiland Williams, LSU

For the most authoritative NFL draft news and free-agency analysis, visit ProFootballWeekly.com.

There are 28 members of the Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC); sixteen Democrats and twelve Republicans. These 28 Senators hold the key to repealing Don't Ask, Don't Tell, and at least eleven are undecided, key votes.

The goal is to have a repeal amendment introduced into the Defense Authorization Bill. It will require a majority of the SASC to get such an amendment into the bill. To do so will not be easy, but this mechanism is the only realistic path for getting repeal through Congress for the forseeable future.

Based on internet searches, Senators' party affiliation, their positions on related matters, and some guessing, I have sorted the 28 SASC members into six categories with respect to their likely stances on repeal. Below I've put together a summary, the individual categorizations, the eleven swing votes I see on the committee, supporting evidence (if any), and explanatory references as to why the SASC is the only game in town and will play both a necessary and critical role in DADT repeal.

The Summary:

• 5 Sponsors of the Senate repeal bill (SP)
• 2 Strong supporters (++)
  
• 3 Possible supporters (+)
• 5 With unknown sympathies (??)
  
• 3 With some kind of negative indicator (-)
  
• 10 Assumed opposition (--)

The Complete Categorization, Senator by Senator:

DEMOCRATS

The 11 swing votes

Assuming 15 votes are needed, given five sponsors and two other strong supporters (Begich and Reed), that leaves us seeking eight votes.

(I'm not sure and have been unable to find out whether to include an amendment it is necessary to have a majority of the entire committee (15 votes) or just a majority of those present and voting. I can't seem to find the rules of the SASC, either on its own web site or via Google. This may prove to be a crucial distinction: e.g., if, one member is uncomfortable voting either way (say, Brown), by being strategically absent that person could reduce the number of yea votes needed to 14 instead of 15.)

From this analysis, we can see that the key players, the crucial swing votes to get a repeal amendment inserted, are (in some approximation to their likelihood of voting for repeal):

• Daniel Akaka (+)
• Kay Hagan (+)
  
• Susan Collins (+)
  
• Claire McCaskill (??)
  
• Ed Kaufman (??)
  
• Bill Nelson (??)
  
• Evan Bayh (??)
  
• Robert Byrd (-)
  
• ------------ (15 vote majority cutoff)
  
• Jim Webb (-)
  
• Scott Brown (??)
• Ben Nelson (-)
  

Supporting Evidence For These Categorizations: (not including co-sponsors of the Senate repeal bill which are listed here)

Jack Reed (RI)

"Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), a senior member of the Armed
Services committee, praised Defense Secretary Robert Gates and
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Mike Mullen for backing the repeal of the policy and their handling of the repeal process.

"I thought the secretary and chairman were both appropriately
supportive of the policy change," Reed said on Bloomberg's "Political Capital," which airs throughout the weekend. "But also recognizing that there has to be not only a decision but also an implementation plan."

The Hill (February 6, 2010)

Mark Begich (AK)

In the recording of March 11th's "View from the Hill" -
CBS 11's weekly interview series with Alaska's Washington delegation
-- Senator Begich said "I think it's done its time, it's time to move
on and change the policy." ...

"You look at the militaries of Canada, Great Britain, Australia, they
don't have any policy like this," Begich told host Matt Felling. He
continued "it has not caused any disruption of how we perform our duties. And I think [don't ask, don't tell has] done its time, it's
time to move on."

KTVA television

Daniel Akaka (HI)

*** no relevant statements or position found ***

Akaka was opposed to and voted against DADT in 1993, which is why he rates a single '+'. His silence on this matter now is stunning.

Kay Hagan (NC)

Hagan has said she believes "anyone willing and able to
serve ought to be able to do so."

NewsObserver.com (February 28th, 2010)

That sounds promising. But will it fly in North Carolina?

Susan Collins (ME)

"I've been participating in the hearings, and I have called for a review of the policy", Collins said. "It needs to be changed."

Politico

With all due respect, Senator, you are the agent of this change...

Claire McCaskill (MO)

*** no relevant statements or position found ***

Astounding that such a prominent a US Senator could have managed to not say anything (or at least avoid any Google reference) as carefully as she has.

It would be very interesting to know how DADT repeal polls in states like Missouri, with Senators that are on-the-fence.

Ed Kaufman (DE)

*** no relevant statements or position found ***

Bill Nelson (FL)

*** no relevant statements or position found ***

Some people think he is gettable, or at least they hope he is: petition

Evan Bayh (IN)

*** no relevant statements or position found ***

Robert Byrd (WV)

*** no relevant statements or position found ***

Wonkette anecdote about Byrd meeting with President Clinton about DADT

This is one of the only references I could find to Byrd and DADT. It was a long time ago now, but it may shed some light on his mindset.

Byrd could well be absent because of his age and ill-health, which brings to fore the question of whether 15 votes are needed or just a majority of those present.

Jimm Webb (VA)

"Secretary of Defense [Robert] Gates and Adm. Mullen have
announced a responsible and careful approach toward examining the
current don't ask, don't tell policy. This examination, which also
will include an assessment of the implications of changing the law,
will take approximately a year," Webb's statement said.

Politico

He obviously wants to wait. The question is, would he actually vote
against repeal? And would he vote against repeal if, say, repeal
didn't take effect until the DoD study came out?

Scott Brown (MA)

"I want to speak to the generals on the ground," Brown told POLITICO on Tuesday. "We're in the middle of two wars right now, and to implement a social policy, a social change -- I think it's important to get the guidance from the generals who are leading our soldiers."

Politico

Massachusetts is a liberal state. Massachusetts has equal marriage rights. Massachusetts has one of the highest perecentages of gays and lesbians. You'd think if Brown had good political sense he'd see that there was no downside to a vote for repeal here, and potentially some upside.

Ben Nelson (NE)

Nelson told the conservative news site CNSNews.com that he's waiting for a report from military leaders and the Defense Department before making up his mind.

"It's a question of what impact it would have on readiness, retention and recruitment," Nelson said. "And until we have that report to look at, it's premature to make any decision, in my opinion, about how, what to apply to the 'Don't ask, don't tell' rule we have in place today."

The Hill

Nelson isn't likely to vote for repeal until Mullen and Gates offer to pay Nebraska's medicare bill for the next 10 years out of the defense budget. Oh wait...

Why the Senate Armed Services Committee Is The Only Realistic Path To Repeal:

To grok why the Senate Armed Services path is the only realistic path, check out this analysis.You'll understand why the House will almost certainly never gets its repeal bill out of committee or into its version of the Defense Appropriations Bill, or onto the floor on a standalone vote. And we know that 60 votes would be required in the Senate to get a standalone repeal bill to the floor, which is not going to happen. For more Senate analysis, see this diary by Clarknt67 and this one.

Conclusions

The worst of it is we don't even know yet whether an attempt will even be made to insert repeal into the Defense Appropriations Bill, or exactly what form it might take. But assming Chairman Levin makes the attempt:

If President Obama were to personally appeal to the key swing votes: Bill Nelson, Bayh, Byrd and Webb, their votes would probably be there. There's likely no way for mere mortals to put any constituent pressure on Bayh (retiring) or Byrd.

Others, such as Hagan, Collins and McCaskill are probably going to want both Presidential persuasion and some show of support from their constituents.

It will be amusing, if nothing else, to watch Brown wriggle and writhe, dart and dance with this issue. Only an incredible outpouring from his constitutuents is likely to pull a yea out of him, although I could easily see him conveniently being in, say, Iraq just as the vote comes up.

Suppose this attempt fails. What are the prospects for next year's bill? The committee will likely have one extra Republican and one fewer Democrat, due to expected losses of Democratic seats in the Senate.

Evan Bayh, retiring, would hopefully be replaced with someone more favorable to repeal, while Kaufman's seat would go to a Republican who is unlikely to look favorably upon repeal. No other Senators on the committee will be losing their seats this November.

On the other hand, the military's DADT Repeal implementation report is expected to be out, which if acceptable could swing a vote or two, especially Webb's. As long as Democrats retain control of the Senate and the House repeal prospects don't necessarily look all that worse in 2011 than they do now; but the military will have kicked out another set of talented men and women that they need, and tens of thousands will still be living in fear of having their careers ruined.