Kenneth L. Pike
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Imagining an Israeli Strike on Iran
[Oddities] (American Scofflaw)The Gay Secretary This analysis misses one critical factor in this insane scenario, and that is the following; what if China (Iran's largest trading partner) and/or Russia step into the fray when Iran is attacked? Just a little reminder; China and Russia do actually have nuclear weapons.By DAVID E. SANGERIn 1981, Israel destroyed Iraq’s nuclear reactor at Osirak, declaring it could not live with the chance the country would get a nuclear weapons capability. ...
The Gay Secretary
This analysis misses one critical factor in this insane scenario, and that is the following; what if China (Iran's largest trading partner) and/or Russia step into the fray when Iran is attacked?
Just a little reminder; China and Russia do actually have nuclear weapons.
By DAVID E. SANGER
In 1981, Israel<</span>!> destroyed Iraq’s nuclear reactor at Osirak, declaring it could not live with the chance the country would get a nuclear weapons capability. In 2007, it wiped out a North Korean-built reactor in Syria. And the next year, the Israelis secretly asked the Bush administration for the equipment and overflight rights they might need some day to strike Iran’s much better-hidden, better-defended nuclear sites.
They were turned down, but the request added urgency to the question: Would Israel take the risk of a strike? And if so, what would follow? Now that parlor game question has turned into more formal war games simulations. The government’s own simulations are classified, but the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at theBrookings Institution created its own in December. The results were provocative enough that a summary of them has circulated among top American government and military officials and in many foreign capitals.
For the sake of verisimilitude, former top American policymakers and intelligence officials — some well known — were added to the mix. They played the president and his top advisers; the Israeli prime minister and cabinet; and Iranian leaders. They were granted anonymity to be able to play their roles freely, without fear of blowback. (This reporter was invited as an observer.)A report by Kenneth M. Pollack, who directed the daylong simulation, can be found at the Saban Center’s Web site.
A caution: Simulations compress time and often oversimplify events. Often they underestimate the risk of error — for example, that by using faulty intelligence leaders can misinterpret a random act as part of a pattern of aggression. In this case, the actions of the American and Israeli teams seemed fairly plausible; the players knew the bureaucracy and politics of both countries well. Predicting Iran’s moves was another matter, since little is known about its decision-making process. —DAVID E. SANGER
1. ISRAEL ATTACKS
Without telling the U.S. in advance, Israel strikes at six of Iran's most critical nuclear facilities, using a refueling base hastily set up in the Saudi Arabian desert without Saudi knowledge. (It is unclear to the Iranians if the Saudis were active participants or not.) Already-tense relations between the White House and Israel worsen rapidly, but the lack of advance notice allows Washington to say truthfully that it had not condoned the attack.2. U.S. STEPS IN
In a series of angry exchanges, the U.S. demands that Israel cease its attacks, though some in Washington view the moment as an opportunity to further weaken the Iranian government, particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Telling Israel it has made a mess, Washington essentially instructs the country to sit in a corner while the United States tries to clean things up.3. U.S. SENDS WEAPONS
Even while calling for restraint on all sides, the U.S. deploys more Patriot antimissile batteries and Aegis cruisers around the region, as a warning to Iran not to retaliate. Even so, some White House advisers warn against being sucked into the conflict, believing that Israel's real strategy is to lure America into finishing the job with additional attacks on the damaged Iranian facilities.4. IRAN STRIKES BACK
Despite warnings, Iran fires missiles at Israel, including its nuclear weapons complex at Dimona, but damage and casualties are minimal. Meanwhile, two of Iran's proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas, launch attacks in Israel and fire rockets into the country. Believing it already has achieved its main goal of setting back the nuclear program by years, Israel barely responds.5. IRAN SEES OPPORTUNITIES
Iran, while wounded, sees long-term opportunities to unify its people - and to roll over its opposition parties - on nationalistic grounds. Its strategy is to mount low-level attacks on Israel while portraying the United States as a paper tiger - unable to control its ally and unwilling to respond to Iran. Convinced that the Saudis had colluded with the Israelis, and emboldened by the measured initial American position, Iran fires missiles at the Saudi oil export processing center at Abqaiq, and tries to incite Shiite Muslims in eastern Saudi Arabia to attack the Saudi regime. Iran also conducts terror attacks against European targets, in hopes that governments there will turn on Israel and the United States.6. IRAN AVOIDS U.S. TARGETS
After a meeting of its divided leadership, Iran decides against directly attacking any American targets - to avoid an all-out American response.7. STRIFE IN ISRAEL<</span>!>
Though Iran's retaliation against Israel causes only modest damage, critics in the Israeli media say the country's leaders, by failing to respond to every attack, have weakened the credibility of the nation's deterrence. Hezbollah fires up to 100 rockets a day into northern Israel, with some aimed at Haifa and Tel Aviv.
The Israeli economy comes to a virtual halt, and Israeli officials, urging American intervention, complain that one-third of the country's population is living in shelters. Hundreds of thousands flee Haifa and Tel Aviv.
8. ISRAEL FIRES BACKIsrael finally wins American acquiescence to retaliate against Hezbollah. It orders a 48-hour campaign by air and special forces against Lebanon and begins to prepare a much larger air and ground operation.
9. IRAN PLAYS THE OIL CARD
Knowing that its ultimate weapon is its ability to send oil prices sky high, Iran decides to attack Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, an oil industry center, with conventional missiles and begins mining the Strait of Hormuz.
A Panamanian-registered, Americanowned tanker and an American minesweeper are severely damaged. The price of oil spikes, though temporarily.
10. U.S. BOOSTS FORCESUnable to sit on the sidelines while oil supplies and American forces are threatened, Washington begins a massive military reinforcement of the Gulf region.
11. REVERBERATIONSThe game ends eight days after the initial Israeli strike. But it is clear the United States was leaning toward destroying all Iranian air, ground and sea targets in and around the Strait of Hormuz, and that Iran's forces were about to suffer a significant defeat. Debate breaks out over how much of Iran's nuclear program was truly crippled, and whether the country had secret backup facilities that could be running in just a year or two.
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The homeless pay the price | Sasha Abramsky
[Guardian] (Society: Mental health | guardian.co.uk)Homeless and mental health services in the US are being cut back as cities, counties and states run out of cashRecently, I wrote about public education in crisis. But two other vital public services are also being hit hard by budget cuts: mental health care and assistance to the homeless. Education is at least partly buttressed by the fact that almost everybody supports the idea of public schools. Cuts generally provoke an outcry, and politicians often pledge to do their best to restore fundin ...
Homeless and mental health services in the US are being cut back as cities, counties and states run out of cash
Recently, I wrote about public education in crisis. But two other vital public services are also being hit hard by budget cuts: mental health care and assistance to the homeless.
In cities, counties, and states across America, homeless and mental health services are being eviscerated. As a result, programmes that have been carefully built up over decades are going to close. With them will go the expertise of trained staff; the accumulated experience of caseworkers who have gotten to know the needs and behaviours of individual clients, and who might have spent years getting those individuals to trust them enough to let them provide help; and the fragile bonds, the sense of belonging, that in some instances are the only things keeping a person on the edge from spiralling into more serious illness and more intractable long-term homelessness.
Education is at least partly buttressed by the fact that almost everybody supports the idea of public schools. Cuts generally provoke an outcry, and politicians often pledge to do their best to restore funding as soon as the economy improves. Mental health and homelessness services, by contrast, are in some ways more vulnerable over the long-run: the constituencies they serve tend to be perceived by much of the public as nuisances at best, as societal menaces at worst; services to these groups tend to be costly; and the success rates (illnesses controlled, homeless folks moved into permanent housing) are, while a whole lot better than nothing, sometimes mediocre.
And so, as local and state government budget crunches worsen, it's no surprise many of these services are on the chopping block.
The Centre on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP) reports that Connecticut's governor has proposed suspending all state-funded homeless services for the rest of the fiscal year; California has eliminated funding for domestic violence shelters; Massachusetts has reduced spending on geriatric mental health services; Ohio has, according to the CBPP report "eliminated virtually all state funding for mental health treatment for individuals who are not eligible for the state's Medicaid programme"; while Virginia has reduced the amount it pays hospitals to treat people with mental health or substance abuse issues and slashed its grants to local mental health service providers.
In fact, search online for mental health cuts by state, and it rapidly becomes clear that across America the already-fragile community mental health service infrastructure is being battered.
The impacts are by no means abstract. Community mental health clinics provide not just medicines and counselling services, but an array of other support: they help the mentally ill find housing and jobs; and they work with them to navigate complex government bureaucracies and access benefits. They provide friendship to people who are frequently lonely, depressed and marginalised from the broader community. Cuts to the mental health infrastructure in Kansas have resulted in a documented increase in calls to suicide hotlines and rising numbers of people being admitted to psychiatric hospitals in a psychotic state. Communities like Santa Barbara, California, have seen homelessness spike at least in part because broke local mental health services are having to turn sick men and women away.
And, once homeless, the mentally ill – as well as the non-mentally ill homeless – face a similar scramble for scarce resources. Tens of millions of dollars have been removed from city shelters in Washington DC, the nation's capital<</span>!>. As winter set in last November in Minnesota, one of the coldest states in America, thousands of low-income families lost emergency financial assistance to help pay rent to avoid being evicted. The National Coalition for the Homeless estimates more than 700 homeless Americans die of hypothermia each year – and with homeless services being slashed, that number will likely increase in the years to come.
Meanwhile, New York City is
considering closing the largest homeless drop-in centre in Manhattan. Activists worry that homeless residents with drug addictions, HIV, tuberculosis, or mental illnesses will find it harder to access treatment if they aren't in stable housing situations. And that, ultimately, could trigger a broader public health problem.
But, at the very least, this merits a frank conversation, an acknowledgment that the risks associated with dismantling this infrastructure are huge: tear down services to these groups during the down times and there is just no guarantee that a political consensus will emerge at the back end of the fiscal crisis to restore such services. After all, homeless people or the seriously mentally ill don't tend to have much of a political voice. Their needs are, too often, seen as irrelevant.The undermining of these vital social services will have an impact that long outlives the current economic crisis. Nothing would more forcefully illustrate the phrase "
There are no easy answers here: too many branches of government have simply run out of cash and of quick-fix solutions. Without more support for these programmes from the federal government, or local ballot measures that earmark funds for particular social services, it's inevitable that many of them will be cut in the next few years.
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NFC West team needs
[NFL Football] (NFL news)Second in a series of analyses of team needs, by division. Arizona Cardinals Quarterbacks: With Kurt Warner retiring, and Brian St. Pierre, who currently figures as the backup to new starting QB Matt Leinart, entering the offseason as an unrestricted free agent clamoring for a starting opportunity, it's quite likely the Cardinals will consider drafting a quarterback — perhaps with an early pick. St. Pierre also had persistent back problems last season. Running backs: Don't look for the Car ...
Second in a series of analyses of team needs, by division.
Arizona Cardinals
Quarterbacks: With Kurt Warner retiring, and Brian St. Pierre, who currently figures as the backup to new starting QB Matt Leinart, entering the offseason as an unrestricted free agent clamoring for a starting opportunity, it's quite likely the Cardinals will consider drafting a quarterback — perhaps with an early pick. St. Pierre also had persistent back problems last season.
Running backs: Don't look for the Cardinals to spend too much time contemplating running backs, unless they run into an opportunity too good to pass up. The combination of 2009 first-rounder Chris "Beanie" Wells and steadily improving Tim Hightower gives the team a potentially potent 1-2 punch out of the backfield for a long time to come. The Cards could consider drafting a fullback with UFA Dan Kreider experiencing shoulder problems late in the year.
Receivers: Another pass catcher or two figures to be acquired. The anticipated trade of Anquan Boldin, who continues to seethe over his contract situation, would create a potentially debilitating domino effect. Restricted free agent Steve Breaston would take over as the No. 2 receiver behind Larry Fitzgerald, while Early Doucet, who has had problems staying healthy, would move up to the No. 3 role. The door would then be opened wide for a new No. 4 WR, as the team has no intention of re-signing Jerheme Urban, who filled that role last season. As long as the Cardinals bring back UFA Anthony Becht, who proved to be an excellent run blocker in 2009, tight end doesn't appear to be a major need.
Offensive line: Help at tackle could be on the way with UFA OLT Mike Gandy likely to move on. Former first-round draft pick Levi Brown, who has not lived up to expectations as the starting right tackle, is expected to switch to the left side. That would create uncertainty at right tackle, with the prime candidates currently being Brandon Keith, a raw but unproven talent, and possibly UFA Jeremy Bridges, who tailed off after excelling in place of the injured Gandy against the Vikings and Pro Bowl DE Jared Allen.
Defensive line: Another quality edge pass rusher to complement Darnell Dockett in four-man fronts would be hard to pass up. The situation at nose tackle is a bit unsettled, with UFA starter Bryan Robinson conceivably nearing the end of the line at the age of 35, and neither Gabe Watson nor Alan Branch being able to sufficiently replace Robinson despite numerous opportunities.
Linebackers: This position could command the most attention in late April — both inside, where UFA Karlos Dansby figures to follow in the footsteps of ex-Cardinal Calvin Pace as one of the more attractive players available in this offseason's free-agent market, and outside, where the need to find an upgrade on the right side for UFA Chike Okeafor, who turns 34 in March, is great. Also inside, starter Gerald Hayes struggled with back problems much of the second half of the '09 campaign.
Defensive backs: The Cardinals have plenty of bodies on the corners, but considering how they got picked apart in the playoffs — especially the undersized Michael Adams — they might consider more help at the position. The team should be OK at the safety spots if it could somehow reach a new agreement with starting FS Antrel Rolle, whose salary is due to jump to $8.1 million in 2010, and also re-sign valuable UFA reserve Matt Ware. But taking care of both Rolle and Ware is easier said than done.
Special teams: If UFA PK Neil Rackers' contract demands are considered out of line, the Cardinals could place some emphasis on finding a new placekicker. P Ben Graham is signed through 2010, but he has struggled with hamstring problems near the end of the past two seasons. If Breaston becomes a starting wideout, the team will have to find a new punt returner.
Summary: After surrendering 90 points and 911 yards in their two playoff games, the Cardinals will probably focus more on the defensive side of the ball in the draft. But it's possible they could still spend high picks on wide receivers, offensive tackles or quarterbacks should the right fits be there for the taking.
St. Louis Rams
Quarterbacks: It's widely assumed that the Rams' starting QB in 2010 is currently not on the roster. With that in mind, look for the team to consider four options: (1) select their QB of the future (Oklahoma's Sam Bradford?) with the first overall pick; (2) trade down in the first round with the intention of picking up a new signalcaller along with some extra picks; (3) draft a QB high in the second or third round and gamble that he immediately becomes another Drew Brees; or (4) pick up a new QB as a "bridge" starter in either a trade or free agency, which is the most likely option.
Running backs: The need remains great for a change-of-pace backup who could help keep undisputed centerpiece Steven Jackson at peak efficiency and actually move the chains when called upon, which primary '09 backups Kenneth Darby and Samkon Gado have had a hard time doing on a consistent basis. Chris Ogbonnaya, a 2009 seventh-rounder, did show some late-season flashes, but the Rams need a lot more than an occasional pick-me-up behind Jackson.
Receivers: A consistent downfield threat is a top priority for arguably the league's most impotent offense. Donnie Avery seems better suited as a slot receiver than the legitimate No. 1 wideout the team first envisioned. Three likely keepers — Laurent Robinson, Keenan Burton and Brooks Foster — finished the '09 season on injured reserve, and none of them is considered a No. 1-caliber pass catcher. With underachieving UFA TE Randy McMichael unlikely to be re-signed, it would not be a shock if the Rams used a high pick on a receiving tight end that can stretch the field.
Offensive line: The Rams believe they are in better shape on the O-line than they have been in a long time. But a bit more depth wouldn't hurt, especially at the tackle spots, with RFA Alex Barron not guaranteed to remain on the roster, and 2009 first-round draft pick Jason Smith having his share of health issues in his first season with the team.
Defensive line: With RFA Clifton Ryan considered the only truly legitimate starting defensive tackle and entering a draft top-heavy with blue-chip talent at the position, it will be difficult for the Rams to avoid using the first overall pick in the draft on either the highly regarded Gerald McCoy or Ndamukong Suh. Defensive end also figures to be a relatively high priority with Leonard Little and James Hall being unrestricted, and the team unlikely to re-sign both of them — unless they can bring them back at dramatically reduced rates.
Linebackers: In Steve Spagnuolo's first season at the helm, the defense had consistent problems on the perimeter, where the new head coach appeared willing to get by with merely serviceable linebackers on the flanks. One or two talented outside 'backers to complement James Lauriniaitis, who was most impressive in the middle as a rookie, could be on the Rams' radar screen. Paris Lenon, who was starting on the weak side at season's end, is an unrestricted free agent that the team isn't expected to go out of its way to keep.
Defensive backs: The Rams seem satisfied enough with their starters in the secondary, but keeping them healthy was a major challenge last season. With so many injury-prone DBs on the roster, more depth at both cornerback and safety wouldn't be a bad idea.
Special teams: For the first time in a long time, the Rams appear to be in pretty decent shape after steadily improving last season under the direction of first-year special-teams coach Tom McMahon. PK Josh Brown, P Donnie Jones and workhorse return specialist Danny Amendola headline what has become a solid unit. But the team might look for some kick-return help to lessen the load of Amendola, who also made his presence felt as a receiver.
Summary: After setting a franchise record with 15 losses, it's rather obvious that the Rams need lots of help just about everywhere. The major goal of GM Billy Devaney will be to procure as many playmakers on both sides of the ball as possible.
San Francisco 49ers
Quarterbacks: Even though head coach Mike Singletary's commitment to Alex Smith was lukewarm at best at season's end, the Niners don't figure to make QBs much of a priority in the draft. Should Smith falter, Singletary can still turn to former starter Shaun Hill and possibly even Nate Davis, a 2009 fifth-round pick who the team eventually believes could become a very good pro signalcaller.
Running backs: The Niners also appear to be in decent shape in the backfield, with featured back Frank Gore leading the way. But a bit more depth at the position probably wouldn't be a bad thing, especially if they can draft a shifty change-of-pace back who could double as a respectable kick returner.
Receivers: Assuming the Niners continue to employ the "Raygun" spread offense at least some of the time, they are going to need more receivers. 2009 first-round draft pick Michael Crabtree and Josh Morgan have the makings of a solid starting duo, although Morgan's speed is somewhat suspect. But behind them, there are plenty of questions, with veteran Isaac Bruce out of the mix, UFA Arnaz Battle unlikely to return and the team appearing to have mixed feelings about Jason Hill and '09 free-agent addition Brandon Jones. It's possible the team uses a late pick on a No. 3 tight end candidate behind the potent duo of Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker.
Offensive line: After free-agent addition Marvel Smith retired late last August due to back problems, right tackle remained a season-long weak link, although UFA Tony Pashos was just beginning to settle in as a starter when he fractured his shoulder in Week Seven. Using one of the team's two picks in the first round on a possible new starting right tackle is a strong possibility. Look for the team to also possibly draft a couple of guards to push projected starters David Baas and Chilo Rachal.
Defensive line: With UFA NT Aubrayo Franklin assured of remaining with the team after receiving the franchise tag, the D-line shapes up as a team strength that wouldn't appear to require too much help from the draft. A bit more depth at the end position wouldn't hurt, considering Ray McDonald's injury history.
Linebackers: Even though the Niners' pass rush improved greatly in 2009, with at least four sacks in five different games, it was still too inconsistent. Another outside 'backer capable of applying steady pressure could prove very useful, Inside, starting "Ted" backer Takeo Spikes is 33 years old, and reserve Matt Wilhelm is an unrestricted free agent.
Defensive backs: A dynamic, playmaking cornerback could be the Niners' No. 1 need. Shawntae Spencer turned out to be surprisingly reliable as the starting right corner, but there are issues with just about everybody else at the position. UFA Walt Harris is a long shot to return after undergoing major knee surgery that forced him to miss the entire '09 season. UFA Dre' Bly, who was starting at left corner at the end of last season, is less of a long shot to leave than Harris, but far from a lock to be back. Former starting CB Nate Clements appears to have slipped significantly, Some more depth at safety would be nice, with starting SS Michael Lewis having concussion issues, and former starter-turned-useful-reserve Mark Roman being an unrestricted free agent.
Special teams: Upgrading the return game is a must, so much so that the team could spend a pretty high pick on the right kick returner. The Niners were last in average punt-return yardage. Battle, the primary punt returner much of the time last season, is unlikely to return, and the team would much prefer that '09 primary kickoff returner Josh Morgan concentrate solely on receiving next season.
Summary: It should be interesting to see what GM Scot McCloughan does with the team's two picks in the middle of the first round (13th and 16th or 17th). Despite much more pressing needs for an offensive tackle and a pass rusher, McCloughan made Crabtree the Niners' first pick in '09. Will he stick with a "best available athlete" strategy again this season? Or will he use his first-round picks on a top-grade cornerback and a quality right tackle, the team's top two needs? Stay tuned.
Seattle Seahawks
Quarterbacks: New head coach Pete Carroll seems firmly committed for the time being to incumbent signal caller Matt Hasselbeck. But with the 34-year-old Hasselbeck entering his contract year next season and coming off a very forgettable '09 campaign, it behooves the Seahawks to start seriously looking for his potential heir apparent.
Running backs: For the zone-block run scheme that is expected to become an even more prominent factor in the Seahawks' offense with Alex Gibbs taking over the O-line, the team needs to find more backs who can pick up the tough yards and come through consistently in short-yardage situations. Diminutive Justin Forsett had some impressive stretches last season, but he is considered far from featured-back material. As for Julius Jones, since becoming a Seahawk he has been injury-prone and inconsistent. The Seahawks could also consider a late-round fullback with Justin Griffith being an unrestricted free agent.
Receivers: With either high-priced disappointment Deion Branch or injury-prone UFA Nate Burleson expected to split the scene — it's actually possible both could bolt from the Pacific Northwest — the Seahawks just might spend a few picks on some pass catchers who can get downfield and help open up an offense that completely fizzled out the second half of the '09 season. The team appears to be in good shape at tight end, with emerging force John Carlson heading the pack.
Offensive line: Clearly, a top priority will be to find a promising left tackle who can make a quick impact with nine-time Pro Bowler Walter Jones a good bet to announce his retirement. Even if Jones decides to continue playing, he's 36 years old and has missed 20 games over the past two seasons. The best-case scenario would be to draft a stud tackle that could immediately begin effectively protecting Hasselbeck's blind side. That way the team could keep Sean Locklear at right tackle, where he is much better suited, or possibly switch Locklear to right guard. RFAs Chris Spencer and Rob Sims have failed to live up to expectations at center and left guard, respectively. Max Unger looks like a fixture in the making at center, but upgrades are needed at every other position on the line, as Hasselbeck took a major beating last season.
Defensive line: The pass rush just kept regressing last season, managing only two sacks the last five games. A consistently disruptive pass rusher off the edge would come in handy. In 2009, the defense never was able to get to the opposing QB with four-man rushes. With a contract that calls for him to make $5.2 million in 2010, it remains to be seen whether the team will choose to keep DE Patrick Kerney, who has undergone surgery in four successive seasons and is no longer the type of force that registered 14½ sacks in his first season with the team in 2007. DEs Darryl Tapp and versatile Cory Redding are free agents (Tapp is restricted). Inside, the team seems reasonably satisfied, even though Brandon Mebane's numbers were very disappointing last season (only 1½ sacks).
Linebackers: If everybody can stay healthy, linebacker should be a team strength, with hyperactive David Hawhtorne breathing down the necks of projected starters Aaron Curry, Lofa Tatupu and Leroy Hill. But valuable backup D.D. Lewis is an unrestricted free agent, and the team might consider a 'backer or two who could add depth and also help out on special teams.
Defensive backs: More plays from the secondary in 2010 are imperative if the Hawks are to have any shot at turning things around. Jordan Babineaux improved as the season wore on and provided some big plays at free safety, but another physical force that can also cover is badly needed. On the strong side, Deon Grant has steadily regressed, and backup Lawyer Milloy (UFA) is on his last legs at age 36. At cornerback, the team needs Marcus Trufant to regain the form he showed prior to last season, which is hardly a given. Trufant started off the '09 season on the PUP list and never appeared right once he got back into the starting lineup. In addition, Ken Lucas, who never came through the way the team hoped he would, is an unrestricted free agent.
Special teams: The Seahawks gave the franchise tag to veteran PK Olindo Mare, who really got his act together after publicly getting ripped by former head coach Jim Mora after missing 2-of-6 field goals against the Bears in Week Three. Jon Ryan, who just received a well-deserved new contract, provides rock-solid punting. The team could draft a potential new primary kick returner should it decide it wants to keep Forsett totally focused on his RB duties.
Summary: There are a number of directions Carroll and new GM John Schneider could go with three of the first 40 selections in the 2010 draft. If the team were to use those three picks based purely on need, which isn't likely, they would probably go after a left tackle, a quality pass rusher and a quarterback — in no particular order.
For the most authoritative NFL draft news and free-agency analysis, visit ProFootballWeekly.com.
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The Top 10 Black Romantic Films of All Time
[Blacks] (Blackfolks)kinda piggybacking off of this post The Top 10 Black Romantic Films of All Time As Black History Month gets into full swing and Valentine's Day approaches, Black Voices wanted to take a look at the Top 10 black romantic films of all time. Some were blockbuster hits –starring household names-- and some have become cult classics. Nevertheless, each of the films we have selected has strong themes of black love. HAV PLENTY Released in 1998 by Miramax Films, 'Hav Plenty' was an ind ...
kinda piggybacking off of this post
The Top 10 Black Romantic Films of All Time
As Black History Month gets into full swing and Valentine's Day approaches, Black Voices wanted to take a look at the Top 10 black romantic films of all time.
Some were blockbuster hits –starring household names-- and some have become cult classics. Nevertheless, each of the films we have selected has strong themes of black love.
HAV PLENTY
Released in 1998 by Miramax Films, 'Hav Plenty' was an independent romantic film based on an eventful weekend in the life of Lee Plenty (played by writer-director Christopher Scott Cherot), an almost-broke would-be novelist, and Havilland Savage (played by Chenoa Maxwell), a rich and beautiful woman. When Havilland invites Lee to her home for New Year's Eve, they start falling for each other. The film traveled the festival circuit and afterward, produces Tracey Edmonds and Kenneth "Babyface" Edmonds came onboard to support it. The movie featured cameos from Nia Long, Shemar Moore and Mekhi Phifer. The film is reportedly based on the true story of Chris Cherot's unrequited romance with Def Jam Records executive Drew Dixon. With a budget at $65,000, the film grossed $2.2 million at the box office.
'CLAUDINE'
Released in 1974, 'Claudine' was one of the few African American films that wasn't part of the blaxploitation era. Directed by John Berry, it starred Diahann Carroll and James Earl Jones. Featuring Lawrence Hilton-Jacobs and King Coleman, the story focused on a single black Harlem maid who finds romance with a garbage collector while living on welfare with her six children. Produced for $14 million, the film did extremely well at the box office, grossing $79 million and gaining an Academy Award nomination for Carroll. Curtis Mayfield wrote and produced the film's score and soundtrack, which featured Gladys Knight & The Pips.
'HOW STELLA GOT HER GROOVE BACK'
Based on Terry McMillan's best-selling novel of the same name, 'How Stella Got Her Groove Back' starred Angela Bassett and Taye Diggs. Directed by Kevin Rodney Sullivan, the movie also featured Whoopi Goldberg, Suzanne Douglas and Regina King. The story is about Stella (played by Bassett), a highly successful, fortysomething San Francisco stock broker who is pursued by young islander, Winston Shakespeare (played by Diggs) while vacationing in Jamaica. The character, played by Diggs, was based on McMillan's then-husband Jonathan Plummer, who was more than 20 years her junior. In a rather ironic turn of events, Plummer announced in June 2005 that he was gay.
'THE BEST MAN'
Making his directorial debut in 1999 with 'The Best Man,' Malcolm D. Lee cast a bevy of rising stars, including Taye Diggs, Nia Long, Morris Chestnut, Terrence Howard, Harold Perrineau, Monica Calhoun, Melissa De Sousa, Regina Hall and Sanaa Lathan. The story centered on Harper Stewart (played by Diggs) and the impact his forthcoming fictional novel has on his friends, including his best friend who's about to be married. Released by Universal Pictures and co-produced by Spike Lee's 40 Acres and a Mule, the film opened at #1 at the box office and went on to gross $34 million.
'ALL ABOUT YOU'
Written and directed by Christine Swanson, this 2001 romantic comedy starred Renee Elise Goldsberry, Terron Brooks, Lisa Raye, Lou Myers, Vanessa Bell Calloway and Rockmond Dunbar. A film festival favorite, 'All About You' centered on two people (played by Goldsberry and Brooks) who run from the pain of their broken pasts. When they discover each other, they find themselves at a crossroads where the only thing that stands between them and a second chance is each other. A follow-up to 'All About You,' 'All About Us,' starred Boris Kodjoe and was released in 2007.
'BROWN SUGAR'
Starring Sanaa Lathan and Taye Diggs, 'Brown Sugar' is the story of a hip-hop record executive (played by Diggs) and a magazine editor (played by Lathan) whose childhood friendship develops into something more. Directed by Rick Famuyiwa, the 2002 romantic drama also featured Mos Def, Nicole Ari Parker, Boris Kodjoe and Queen Latifah, with cameo appearances from rappers Pete Rock, Common, Method Man, Kool G. Rap, Talib Kweli and Fabolous. The Michael Elliott-written movie is based on the song 'I Used to Love H.E.R.,' by Common, a story of how a relationship with hip-hop can serve as a metaphor for love.
'JASON'S LYRIC'
Doug McHenry made his directorial debut in 1994 with the romantic film 'Jason's Lyric,' which starred Allen Payne and Jada Pickett Smith. Featuring Bokeem Woodbine, Lisa Nicole Carson, Treach, Eddie Griffin, Lahmard Tate and Forest Whitaker, the film centered on Jason (played by Payne), a sales clerk, who falls in love with Lyric (played by Pinkett Smith). But when Jason's family history and crazy father, Maddog (played by Whitaker), come back to haunt him, he has to choose between staying or leaving everything for a better life. LL Cool J, Brian McKnight, D'Angelo and Oleta Adams were among the many artists featured on the soundtrack.
'LOVE AND BASKETBALL'
Written and directed by Gina Prince-Bythewood, 'Love and Basketball' is a 2000 romantic drama that starred Sanaa Lathan and Omar Epps. Featuring Dennis Haysbert, Debbie Morgan, Gabrielle Union, Boris Kodjoe, Tyra Banks and Alfre Woodard, the story follows two next-door neighbors (Epps and Lathan) who grew up loving basketball and, eventually, each other. Released by New Line Cinema, the film was co-produced by Spike Lee's 40 Acres and a Mule company. Lathan won many accolades for her performance, including an Independent Spirit Award for best female lead, while the film took the 2001 NAACP Image award for outstanding picture. Among the songs on the soundtrack was Maxwell's classic rendition of Kate Bush's 'This Woman's Work.'
'MAHOGANY'
Coming off the success of the Oscar Award-caliber 'Lady Sings The Blues,' Diana Ross followed up with another cinematic marvel, 'Mahogany.' Directed by Motown founder Berry Gordy and co-starring Billy Dee Williams, the story follows Tracy, an aspiring designer from the slums of Chicago who puts herself through fashion school in the hopes of becoming one of the world's top designers. Anthony Perkins and Beah Richards also had memorable roles in the film, which featured Ross' very own fashion designs. Her song 'Do You Know Where You're Going To' became a #1 hit on the Billboard Hot 100 in 1976 and has become one of the most definitive American love songs.
'LOVE JONES'
An all-time classic in the Black movie community, 'Love Jones' is a 1997 romantic drama that starred Nia Long and Larenz Tate. Directed by Theodore Witcher, the cast also included Isaiah Washington, Bill Bellamy and Lisa Nicole Carson. The story revolves around Darius Lovehall, a young black poet (played by Tate) in Chicago who starts dating Nina Moseley (played by Long), a beautiful and talented photographer. While trying to figure out if they've got a "love thing" or are just "kicking it," they hang out with their friends, talking about love and sex. Then Nina tests the strength of Darius' feelings and sets a chain of romantic complications into motion when she moves to another city to take a new job. Artists included on the soundtrack were Kenny Lattimore, The Brand New Heavies, Maxwell, Cassandra Wilson, Dionne Farris, Groove Theory, and Lauryn Hill.
Source
i just wanna say that love and basketball is the best movie OF ALL TIME -
The Top 10 Black Romantic Films of All Time
[Blacks] (Black Entertainment, Money, Style and Beauty Blogs - Black Voices)Filed under: Black History MonthAs Black History Month gets into full swing and Valentine's Day approaches, Black Voices wanted to take a look at the Top 10 black romantic films of all time. Some were blockbuster hits -starring household names-- and some have become cult classics. Nevertheless, each of the films we selected have strong themes of black love. http://xml.channel.aol.com/xmlpublisher/fetch.v2.xml?option=expand_relative_urls&dataUrlNodes=uiConfig,feedConfig,localiza ...
Filed under: Black History Month
As Black History Month gets into full swing and Valentine's Day approaches, Black Voices wanted to take a look at the Top 10 black romantic films of all time.
Some were blockbuster hits -starring household names-- and some have become cult classics. Nevertheless, each of the films we selected have strong themes of black love.http://xml.channel.aol.com/xmlpublisher/fetch.v2.xml?option=expand_relative_urls&dataUrlNodes=uiConfig,feedConfig,localizationConfig,entry&id=829389&pid=829388&uts=1265507517http://www.aolcdn.com/ke/media_gallery/v1/ke_media_gallery_wrapper.swfThe Top Ten Black Romantic Films of All TimeThe Top Ten Black Romantic Films of All Time
As Valentine's Day approaches, Black Voices wanted to take a look at the Top 10 black romantic films of all time. Whether it was a blockbuster hit or a cult favorite, each of the films we selected have strong themes of black love.VariousGetty Images North AmericaThe Top Ten Black Romantic Films of All Time
The Top Ten Black Romantic Films of All Time
As Black History Month gets into full swing and Valentine's Day approaches, Black Voices wanted to take a look at the Top 10 black romantic films of all time. Some were blockbuster hits -starring household names-- and some have become cult classics. Nevertheless, each of the films we selected have strong themes of black love.
The Top Ten Black Romantic Films of All Time
'HAV PLENTY'
Released in 1998 by Miramax Films, 'Hav Plenty' was an independent romantic film based on an eventful weekend in the life of Lee Plenty (played by writer-director Christopher Scott Cherot), an almost-broke would-be novelist, and Havilland Savage (played by Chenoa Maxwell), a rich and beautiful woman. When Havilland invites Lee to her home for New Year's Eve, they start falling for each other. The film traveled the festival circuit and afterward, produces Tracey Edmonds and Kenneth "Babyface" Edmonds came onboard to support it. The movie featured cameos from Nia Long, Shemar Moore and Mekhi Phifer. The film is reportedly based on the true story of Chris Cherot's unrequited romance with Def Jam Records executive Drew Dixon. With a budget at $65,000, the film grossed $2.2 million at the box office.
The Top Ten Black Romantic Films of All Time
'CLAUDINE'
Released in 1974, 'Claudine' was one of the few African American films that wasn't part of the blaxploitation era. Directed by John Berry, it starred Diahann Carroll and James Earl Jones. Featuring Lawrence Hilton-Jacobs and King Coleman, the story focused on a single black Harlem maid who finds romance with a garbage collector while living on welfare with her six children. Produced for $14 million, the film did extremely well at the box office, grossing $79 million and gaining an Academy Award nomination for Carroll. Curtis Mayfield wrote and produced the film's score and soundtrack, which featured Gladys Knight & The Pips.
The Top Ten Black Romantic Films of All Time
'HOW STELLA GOT HER GROOVE BACK'
Based on Terry McMillan's best-selling novel of the same name, 'How Stella Got Her Groove Back' starred Angela Bassett and Taye Diggs. Directed by Kevin Rodney Sullivan, the movie also featured Whoopi Goldberg, Suzanne Douglas and Regina King. The story is about Stella (played by Bassett), a highly successful, fortysomething San Francisco stock broker who is pursued by young islander, Winston Shakespeare (played by Diggs) while vacationing in Jamaica. The character, played by Diggs, was based on McMillan's then-husband Jonathan Plummer, who was more than 20 years her junior. In a rather ironic turn of events, Plummer announced in June 2005 that he was gay.
The Top Ten Black Romantic Films of All Time
'THE BEST MAN'
Making his directorial debut in 1999 with 'The Best Man,' Malcolm D. Lee cast a bevy of rising stars, including Taye Diggs, Nia Long, Morris Chestnut, Terrence Howard, Harold Perrineau, Monica Calhoun, Melissa De Sousa, Regina Hall and Sanaa Lathan. The story centered on Harper Stewart (played by Diggs) and the impact his forthcoming fictional novel has on his friends, including his best friend who's about to be married. Released by Universal Pictures and co-produced by Spike Lee's 40 Acres and a Mule, the film opened at #1 at the box office and went on to gross $34 million.
The Top Ten Black Romantic Films of All Time
'ALL ABOUT YOU'
Written and directed by Christine Swanson, this 2001 romantic comedy starred Renee Elise Goldsberry, Terron Brooks, Lisa Raye, Lou Myers, Vanessa Bell Calloway and Rockmond Dunbar. A film festival favorite, 'All About You' centered on two people (played by Goldsberry and Brooks) who run from the pain of their broken pasts. When they discover each other, they find themselves at a crossroads where the only thing that stands between them and a second chance is each other. A follow-up to 'All About You,' 'All About Us,' starred Boris Kodjoe and was released in 2007.
The Top Ten Black Romantic Films of All Time
'BROWN SUGAR'
Starring Sanaa Lathan and Taye Diggs, 'Brown Sugar' is the story of a hip-hop record executive (played by Diggs) and a magazine editor (played by Lathan) whose childhood friendship develops into something more. Directed by Rick Famuyiwa, the 2002 romantic drama also featured Mos Def, Nicole Ari Parker, Boris Kodjoe and Queen Latifah, with cameo appearances from rappers Pete Rock, Common, Method Man, Kool G. Rap, Talib Kweli and Fabolous. The Michael Elliott-written movie is based on the song 'I Used to Love H.E.R.,' by Common, a story of how a relationship with hip-hop can serve as a metaphor for love.
The Top Ten Black Romantic Films of All Time
'JASON'S LYRIC'
Doug McHenry made his directorial debut in 1994 with the romantic film 'Jason's Lyric,' which starred Allen Payne and Jada Pickett Smith. Featuring Bokeem Woodbine, Lisa Nicole Carson, Treach, Eddie Griffin, Lahmard Tate and Forest Whitaker, the film centered on Jason (played by Payne), a sales clerk, who falls in love with Lyric (played by Pinkett Smith). But when Jason's family history and crazy father, Maddog (played by Whitaker), come back to haunt him, he has to choose between staying or leaving everything for a better life. LL Cool J, Brian McKnight, D'Angelo and Oleta Adams were among the many artists featured on the soundtrack.
The Top Ten Black Romantic Films of All Time
'LOVE AND BASKETBALL'
Written and directed by Gina Prince-Bythewood, 'Love and Basketball' is a 2000 romantic drama that starred Sanaa Lathan and Omar Epps. Featuring Dennis Haysbert, Debbie Morgan, Gabrielle Union, Boris Kodjoe, Tyra Banks and Alfre Woodard, the story follows two next-door neighbors (Epps and Lathan) who grew up loving basketball and, eventually, each other. Released by New Line Cinema, the film was co-produced by Spike Lee's 40 Acres and a Mule company. Lathan won many accolades for her performance, including an Independent Spirit Award for best female lead, while the film took the 2001 NAACP Image award for outstanding picture. Among the songs on the soundtrack was Maxwell's classic rendition of Kate Bush's 'This Woman's Work.'
The Top Ten Black Romantic Films of All Time
'MAHOGANY'
Coming off the success of the Oscar Award-caliber 'Lady Sings The Blues,' Diana Ross followed up with another cinematic marvel, 'Mahogany.' Directed by Motown founder Berry Gordy and co-starring Billy Dee Williams, the story follows Tracy, an aspiring designer from the slums of Chicago who puts herself through fashion school in the hopes of becoming one of the world's top designers. Anthony Perkins and Beah Richards also had memorable roles in the film, which featured Ross' very own fashion designs. Her song 'Do You Know Where You're Going To' became a #1 hit on the Billboard Hot 100 in 1976 and has become one of the most definitive American love songs.
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Why Your House Will Lose 12% Of Its Value In 2010
[Small Business] (Business Insider)Michael David White is a mortgage broker in Chicago and a real estate pundit. This article appeared on his Web site, newobservations.net. NewObservations.net projects residential real estate prices will fall 12 percent nationwide in 2010. Our average of four major indexes predicts a total fall in prices of 34% from peak to stable trend. The total fall of 34% is based upon a current loss across four number sets of 19%. The timing and the total fall vary widely among the data. The most conserv ...
Michael David White is a mortgage broker in Chicago and a real estate pundit. This article appeared on his Web site, newobservations.net.
NewObservations.net projects residential real estate prices will fall 12 percent nationwide in 2010.
Our average of four major indexes predicts a total fall in prices of 34% from peak to stable trend. The total fall of 34% is based upon a current loss across four number sets of 19%.
The timing and the total fall vary widely among the data. The most conservative picture of our total fall is a 20% loss. The most radical prediction is that values will fall 51% from peak to stable trend (Please see the summary of results immediately below.).
One data set predicts that we will attain a trend value this year and then push beyond it (See below the First American Core Logic Chart.). The projections provided here artificially limit the loss to a return-to-trend value.
Two conservative data sets see the fall in values continuing through the summer of 2013. If correct, that’s equal to 3.5 more years of falling prices. The leading economic historians say prices normally fall for six years after a credit bubble. Based upon a summer 2006 high, the middle of 2012 is the projected bottom (Please see the chart below from CARMEN M. REINHART and KENNETH S. ROGOFF.).
All of the forecasts here are based upon the author’s assumption that real estate is a stable investment which largely tracks inflation. The follow-on assumption is that values broke out of this stable pricing pattern in a real estate bubble which started in 1990.
The basis of the primary assumption, the assumption that real estate is a stable non-appreciating asset, is taken directly from Robert Shiller. He is a leading expert on real estate prices.
“My data show that between 1890 and 1990 real home prices actually didn’t increase,” Mr. Shiller wrote in Newsweek (Dec 30, 2009), Why We’ll Always Have More Money Than Sense. If prices didn’t appreciate for 100 years, it leads one to assume the break in that pattern is an artificial break.
The prediction of a 12% fall this year averages forecasts ranging as high as 28% and as low as 4%. I try to make no judgment about these estimates. I report the numbers objectively based upon providing a linear projection of the fall in prices dating from the market peak. Each data set is treated the same way. If the upward trend starting in 1990 is supportable and real, then the numbers provided here are very likely to be incorrect. If government policies reenact a bubble, these numbers will also be incorrect.

The federal government has taken extraordinary measures to stop the fall predicted by these trend charts. Given the massive power of the United States Treasury and the Federal Reserve, those efforts may win. Their steps to artificially maintain prices center on Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the FHA making essentially every new mortgage loan in the United States today.
Without their lending, real estate prices in the United States would fall dramatically. The author estimates prices would fall 50% to 75% from today’s level if Fannie, Freddie, and the FHA stopped making loans. Private investment in mortgage loans has disappeared. Without government lending most purchases would have to be made from the buyer’s savings. Buyers would have to pay all cash. It’s a way of doing things we don’t even understand.
We are in a radical real estate depression hidden from us by massive government fixes.
In a November 2009 report I estimated total excessive mortgage issuance of $5 trillion – Losses and Zombie Debt in Residential Mortgages Surpass $5 trillion (See the chart above.).
***
Given that the most essential element of our competitiveness is based upon the cost of labor, and given that the price of housing is our most expensive cost of living, we cannot live well, compete in the global marketplace, and pay for bubble-priced real estate all at the same time. We have to make a very difficult decision.
The smartest conclusion is obvious. Our highest priority must be to bring down the house of cards. We should encourage foreclosures. We should encourage default. We should bring overhead down. Our first goal must be inexpensive housing. (See Mortgage Default is a Patriotic Duty.)
The most provocative of all of the charts which I have been studying in the last six months suggests the fall is inevitable. All of the government maneuvers will fail because delinquent first mortgages are now equal in number to three times a balanced for-sale inventory (Please see above “Delinquent Mortgages: Will They Overwhelm Supply?”).
My prediction is that the leaders at our Treasury and the Fed will finish as the bigger or the biggest fools. They are waging nuclear war to maintain bubble pricing on 129 million housing units (If you are like me, you say that sentence, and you know that the policy is dead wrong.). Only an academic bureaucrat could make such a choice and believe in it. And the financial press has not even one word to say against this lunatic fantasy. The blind cover the dumb and vice versa.
Ben Bernanke and Timothy Geithner prove that book learning makes you dumb and government work makes you slow. Don’t put your faith in them or their experience. They haven’t spent enough time in the real world.
If you own real estate and you can sell, sell it. If you want to buy, make sure you are staying for 10 years and insist on a great deal. Make sure you can live with losing 10 percent or 20 percent or 30 percent of the price that you pay for your home.
The risk inherent in our current real estate market is far beyond the tolerance of 98% of would-be buyers. That means you. You can get screwed badly if you buy now. Don’t do it. Don’t put yourself in the poor house.
***
Click here for more notes and data on the forecast. Please send your suggestions and corrections. If you have a better way of projecting the fall, please email me. I will send the Excel file for you to re-work and then publish your findings. mike@mynewmortgage.com
Join the conversation about this story »
See Also:
- Mortgage Default Is A Patriotic Duty
- Pending Homes Sales Spike, Homebuilders Are On Fire
- Scenes From The New Depression
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Projections Film Festival
[Design, Starter Kit] (Cool Hunting)by Ariston Anderson Director and curator Aaron Rose's five-week film series, "Projections," brings some of the more obscure and rarely-screened gems of the silver screen to L.A.'s Roberts & Tilton Gallery starting this weekend. Like his renowned Beautiful Losers exhibit and documentary, the fest's setting lends white-wall cred to the often ghettoized micro-length format. As Rose explains, "Some of the most inspiring films I’ve ever ...
by Ariston Anderson
Director and curator Aaron Rose's five-week film series, "Projections," brings some of the more obscure and rarely-screened gems of the silver screen to L.A.'s Roberts & Tilton Gallery starting this weekend. Like his renowned Beautiful Losers exhibit and documentary, the fest's setting lends white-wall cred to the often ghettoized micro-length format. As Rose explains, "Some of the most inspiring films I’ve ever seen have been under five minutes long."
While a majority come from lesser-known filmmakers, plenty of established art house directors, including Spike Jonze, Harmony Korine, Jean Luc Godard and Roman Coppola, will show their flicks too. Diarist cinema pioneer Jonas Mekas opens the festival with a special outdoor screening of his legendary "Walden: Diaries, Notes and Sketches," a sprawling portrait of New York's 1968 avant-garde scene and his first feature length film.
Playing daily, the films run on a continuous basis for five weeks. Notable films include Matt Clark's foxy flick "Passenger," Brian Butler's "Night of Pan," featuring Kenneth Anger and Vincent Gallo and "Thorn and Toad" by CH video alum Tobin Yelland. Rose also shows his own latest work, the short documentary "Become a Microscope" about Sister Corita, a Catholic nun who created provocative art for over 20 years.
Projections Film Festival
Opening Reception: 16 January 2010, 6-9pm
16 January-20 February 2010 Roberts & Tilton Gallery
5801 Washington Boulevard
Culver City, California 90232 map
tel. +1 323 549 022 -
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
[Economics] (SeekingAlpha.com: Home Page)SA Editor Eli Hoffmann submits: Employers plan hiring uptick in 2010. U.S. employers expect to hire more new workers in 2010 than they did in 2009, according to CareerBuilder.com's 2010 Job Forecast released this morning. Twenty percent of employers plan to add full-time positions next year, up from 14% in 2009, while just 9% plan to cut head count in 2010, down from 16%. Still, 61% said they have no plans to change staffing levels, indicating ongoing caution. "Employers are waiting to s ...
- Employers plan hiring uptick in 2010. U.S. employers expect to hire more new workers in 2010 than they did in 2009, according to CareerBuilder.com's 2010 Job Forecast released this morning. Twenty percent of employers plan to add full-time positions next year, up from 14% in 2009, while just 9% plan to cut head count in 2010, down from 16%. Still, 61% said they have no plans to change staffing levels, indicating ongoing caution. "Employers are waiting to see what the economy does and what the new year brings," CareerBuilder's Michael Erwin said. While the job market appears to be on the mend, the firm said it doesn't expect a return to growth until at least Q2 2010.
- Fed floats new exit tool. The Federal Reserve proposed the creation of a new term-deposit facility, through which it will pay eligible institutions interest on deposits ranging from one month to one year; the Fed already pays interest on banks' overnight reserves. In its crisis-fighting efforts, the Fed has extended nearly $2.2T in credit to the banking system, fueling concern sabout the possibility of an inflation spike. The new proposal would be another tool in the tightening arsenal, along with reverse repurchase agreements and outright asset sales.
- Specs go bullish on dollar. For the first time since May, speculators went long the dollar, according to CFTC data released Monday. Net long dollar positions in the week ending Dec. 22 were +$700M, up from -$1.98B in the prior week, and a peak short position of $20.7B. The shift comes in a month that has seen the dollar rally sharply after spending most of 2009 under pressure.
- GM's year-end fire sale. GM is offering huge incentives to its dealers to speed up the sales of leftover inventory from its defunct Saturn and Pontiac brands. Until Jan. 4, GM will pay dealers $7,000 for each new Saturn or Pontiac on their lots that is moved to their rental-vehicle or service-vehicle fleets. Dealers would then be forced to classify the cars as used, resulting in fire-sale prices for customers. The tactic could inflate GM's December sales, and cut the cost to car buyers by as much as 46%.
- Ex-worker accuses Seagate of cover-up. A decade-long dispute between tiny Convolve and Seagate Technology (STX) took an unexpected turn after an ex-employee claimed Seagate had appropriated Convolve technology and destroyed the evidence. According to court documents, the whistle-blower, Paul A. Galloway, provided an eyewitness account accusing Seagate of incorporating Convolve's hard-drive technology into its products. Convolve has been seeking $800M from Seagate and Compaq over technology that reduces the noise and vibration generated by hard-disk drives.
- Hong Kong chief warns of double dip. Hong Kong leader Donald Tsang said Tuesday he is pessimistic about the pace of city's economic recovery, and warned of a double dip in 2010. Yesterday, a weak sale of two waterfront sites raised concerns the Hong Kong real-estate bubble - fueled largely by short-term capital inflows - may be bursting. Last month, Tsang expressed concern that money flowing into Asia because of low U.S. interest rates could spark another financial crisis in the region. (ETF: EWZ)
- Pilgrim's Pride exits bankruptcy. Chicken producer Pilgrim's Pride (PGPDQ.PK) emerged from bankruptcy protection just over a year after beginning the process. The exit deal includes the sale of a majority stake to Brazilian meat company JBS for $800M. Pilgrim's Pride, one of the largest chicken producers, has the authority to issue 800M shares of common stock and 50M shares of preferred stock in the reorganized company, some of which will go to current stockholders in exchange for their old shares. Shares begin trading today on the NYSE under the symbol PPC.
- Investors bet on emerging markets. Emerging-market equity funds inflows tripled last week as the outlook improved for developing-nation exporters, according to EFPR. Emerging-market stock funds have attracted a record $80.3B in 2009, compared with outflows of $48B in 2008, amid a 73% rally in MSCI's Emerging Markets Index. U.S. equity fund inflows of $11.1B made for the strongest week since June, 2008, helping to improve the record YTD outflow to $69B.
- Corporate bonds likely to be winners in 2010. Corporate bonds - especially bank bonds - will be big winners in 2010, benefiting from a combination of stronger balance sheets, growing demand and shrinking debt issuance, according to Pimco, the world's largest bond manager. "As the corporate sector de-levers while the federal government re-levers, bond market technicals should increasingly turn positive for corporate bonds and negative for Treasurys," Pimco's Mark Kiesel told investors Monday.
- Consumer advocates oppose Google/AdMob deal. Two consumer watchdogs - Consumer Watchdog and the Center for Digital Democracy - asked the FTC to block Google's (GOOG) acquisition of AdMob, saying the merger "would substantially lessen competition in the increasingly important mobile advertising market," and that the deal "raises substantial privacy concerns" because both "gather tremendous amounts of data about consumers' online behavior." The FTC has already signaled that it wants to take a closer look at the $750M deal, announced in November. AdMob's ad network runs across mobile sites and applications, and critics worry the company will make it easy for Google to extend its dominant share of the search ad market into the fast-growing mobile space.
- Morgan Stanley plots pay overhaul. Morgan Stanley (MS) plans to overhaul the compensation of its top executives, deferring more of their pay over time and benchmarking compensation against rival firms. Sources say senior executives may receive as little as 25% of their 2009 pay in cash, with the rest coming as deferred stock, but the plan stops short of the approach taken by Goldman Sachs (GS), whose top execs will receive only stock for 2009 bonuses. One proposal would see top executives submit 65% or more of their pay to clawbacks, which would be returned in the event of future losses. Morgan's 2009 compensation is projected to be $14B, short of the $20B payday expected at Goldman, but Morgan may end up losing money on the year, while Goldman is expected to post a profit of $11.1B.
- AIG lawyer quits over money, gets big payday. AIG's (AIG) general counsel, Anastasia Kelly, will receive several million dollars in severance after she resigned over federal pay curbs. Under the company's severance plan, certain executives can resign and collect severance if their pay is reduced significantly. The news is likely to again call into question the wisdom of pay caps imposed at TARP recipient firms; critics of pay czar Kenneth Feinberg say high-level executives will leave companies like AIG and move to banks and hedge funds that are not subject to pay caps.
Today's Markets
Monday recap: Stock markets hit fresh closing highs on a year-end bout of optimistic position building. Bonds edged lower as new supply hit the market. The dollar gained on the yen, but was weaker elsewhere, leading to a rise in gold prices, and oil<</span>!> touched a five-week high.
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'Twas the Year In Review: A Poetic Recap of Sports in 2009
[New England Patriots, Sports, Fantasy Football] (Bleacher Report - Front Page)Note: I’m loosely taking a page from Clement Clarke Moore’s famous Twas the Night Before Christmas poem to give a 2009 year-in-review look at sports. ’Twas the night before Christmas, when Tiger got defanged, By TMZ and Elin, mistresses and Y. E. Yang. He swung hard in four majors and won nary this year, With shame and fewer sponsors, and a family to repair. The Yankees got all cozy in their new Bronx confines, Won their 27th Series and again played sublime. Over the Phillies of ...
Note: I’m loosely taking a page from Clement Clarke Moore’s famous Twas the Night
Before Christmas poem to give a 2009 year-in-review look at sports.
’Twas the night before Christmas, when Tiger got defanged,
By TMZ and Elin, mistresses and Y. E. Yang.
He swung hard in four majors and won nary this year,
With shame and fewer sponsors, and a family to repair.
The Yankees got all cozy in their new Bronx confines,
Won their 27th Series and again played sublime.
Over the Phillies of Philly, they struck with their might
And Rivera, CC and Jeter were all stars and fall knights.
In the NBA, some sought a Boston-LA repeat,
But only the Lakers reached the ultimate feat.
Kobe and Pau and Trevor played dominant roles,
As Dwight “Superman” Howard and others were fool’s gold.
Hockey rinks again brightened by sights of No. 8,
Two-time MVP Ovechkin, or simply Alex the Great.
However, the NHL finals was a rematch of Pens and Wings,
That saw Detroit scratched out by Sid the Kid and Malkin.
College football champs were decided by BCS,
With computers, not playoffs, to further push this BS.
Yet the Gators of Gainesville took the title game higher
By beating Stoops’ Sooners, 24-14, via Tebow and Meyer.
The North Carolina Tar Heels won in college men’s hoops,
While the women of UConn, at the end, also cut nylon loops.
Tyler Hansbrough played great, as did Lawson and Green,
Though Geno’s girls, mostly Maya—just as tough champenes.
Usain Bolt of Jamaica definitely blew away his foes;
In Berlin, the man from Trelawny had the fastest of toes.
A world record of 9.69 secs in the 100 meters he had set,
Track and field’s biggest star now has London 2012 to get.
Jimmie Kenneth Johnson garnered his fourth straight Sprint Cup,
The El Cajon, California, native left everyone else in the dust.
NASCAR’s newest king seems to have not a doubt,
Even as newbie Danica Patrick will try to figure him out.
Swiss-born Roger Federer has grown accustomed to wins,
That even off the court had time to raise babies (two, twins).
Sans Nadal, he finally secured Roland Garros without a jam,
Acing Wimbledon for the sixth time, his 15th Grand Slam.
When September arrived, Fed sought to win at Ashe,
Never knowing that Del Potro had that dream dashed.
Whilst Serena breezed through in England and Down Under,
The diva did lose her cool in Queens and put herself asunder.
February saw Steelers and Cardinals in the Super Bowl,
Two very good teams with eyes on the prize, a coveted goal.
Arizona spiked things up when Larry Fitz found his groove,
Even though Pitt got Lombardi VI—Big Ben, Holmes too smooth.
Japan topped South Korea in the World Baseball Classic,
And Brazil won the FIFA Confed Cup, tactic by tactic.
Speaking of Brazil, the IOC gifted the Olympics to Rio,
Samba excitement in 2016 for a roaring, South American leo.
Contador snatched the Maillot Jaune , not Lance, in July,
Former teammates, now rivals, split as one sped by.
Pakistan became winners of cricket’s Twenty20,
As Charles Barkley served jailtime for drinking aplenty.
Michael Jordan was finally inducted into the NBA’s Hall of Fame,
So did Bruce and Rod Woodson in Canton, getting love all the same.
Henderson and Rice followed their path in Major League Baseball,
Plus Yzerman, Robitaille, and another hockey great, Brett Hull.
2009 was a good year, as well with much tragedy,
Gone were Kemp, Fidrych, Kalas, and Chuck Daly.
In addition, R.I.P. Pollin, C. Henry, K. Yow and McNair,
Davidson, L. Miller, J. Howard, M. Brand and Norm Van Lier.
This Christmas promises to be a great sports smorgasbord:
Titans-Chargers, Magic-Celts, Lakers-Cavs—a holiday reward.
I’m looking forward in doing this poetic wrap-up again,
Waiting for more magical moments and many thrills in 2010!

