Selection of Michael Beer for third Test after five first-class matches shows the Australian selectors are lurching like a drunk in a dark alley

They could not have picked Shane Warne, although that would have been hilarious. Even their Delphic oracle, Richie Benaud, whom the Australians look to as a source of venerable wisdom in times of trouble, but who now usually restricts himself to brief and impenetrable utterances, was crystal clear about that particular bandwagon. He thought it was a preposterous idea.

But instead of picking Warne, Australia's selectors seem to have listened to him. Warne identified Michael Beer as his choice last week in one of his many columns and – glory be – Beer is in the 12 for Perth, the left-arm spinner's new home.

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It is impossible to ignore the fact that Beer is from St Kilda in Melbourne, Warne's old club. One of the great wizard's virtues is that he is loyal to his roots. He would not be shy about supporting a St Kilda cricketer but even he, and Beer himself, must be flabbergasted by the rapid metamorphosis from grade cricketer in Melbourne one moment to a Perth-based international cricketer the next. In times of stress the English make a cup of tea, the Aussies go for a Beer.

His selection is not quite as astonishing as the recall of Warne would have been. But it is not far behind. Warne may like the notion of a St Kilda boy emulating his route into the Test team after barely any first-class cricket – Beer has had only six first-class outings since his debut on 10 October this year – but the comparisons between the two end there. Beer is an orthodox finger-spinner, not a mystery man. There is not much reason to suspect that he will be any more effective than Xavier Doherty, who played in the first two Tests and was immediately ditched, having given up 306 runs in taking three wickets.

The 26-year-old Beer was never selected for his state team despite regular success in Melbourne grade cricket, where he took 213 wickets in six seasons. This year he moved to Perth and he played against the tourists for Western Australia just over a month ago. He did take five wickets in the match, albeit yielding runs at a rate of five per over. In England's second innings he managed to dismiss Kevin Pietersen, but surely they are not being seduced by that theory again. So Beer becomes the tenth spinner to be chosen since Warne's retirement.

Anyone in pursuit of any echoes of Warne in the latest deliberations of the Australian selectors would do better to focus upon Steve Smith rather than Beer. Smith is only 21, and he played his two Test matches against Pakistan in England last summer. And he has something. There is a sparkle in his eye. He is a brilliant fieldsman, always a good sign. His batting is unorthodox and very 21st century; he stands tall and ready to deliver and he has an excellent eye. In one-day cricket he can whack the ball miles and sometimes he does the same in the longer form of the game.

At this stage in his career, Smith's batting is more advanced than his wrist-spin bowling, though he has just taken eight wickets in a match, for the first time, for New South Wales against South Australia in Sydney. Those eight wickets took his tally to 41 in first-class cricket, which is 25 more than Beer.

In the same match Nathan Hauritz hit his maiden century and took three wickets in the second innings. By all accounts he is bowling much better now. But it seems the selectors have decided that even if Hauritz is the most accomplished and reliable spinner in the country, they do not want him in the team any more. Nor are they so enamoured by the left-arm spinner Steve O'Keefe, who bowled respectably for the A team in Hobart three weeks ago.

Instead the selectors prefer the excitement of trying to pluck magical rabbits out of their hats. Or maybe they cannot cope with any more U-turns, which the recall of Hauritz would represent. They appear to be lurching this way and that like a drunk in a dark alley.

Smith may well be the future, however. Even if Australia lose the Test at Perth, and therefore the Ashes, he will probably be around for the rest of the series. Smith is someone the Channel Nine commentators can salivate over. At least he offers hope. The same may apply to the other recalled youngster, Phil Hughes, the idiosyncratic opening batsman, who was dropped after two Ashes Tests in 2009 and replaced by Shane Watson. (Hughes, by the way, celebrated his recall with a duck in the second innings of New South Wales's Sheffield Shield match with South Australia in Sydney).

Whether Smith is mature enough to sway a Test match is another matter. His leg-breaks have promise, a fair bit of fizz but not much consistency. Smith will definitely play in Perth, batting at six or seven, since the Australian selectors are sending no spare batsmen to the far west. Ricky Ponting does not have the option of playing safe with a specialist batsman at six.

It is not certain how Ponting will arrange his lower order, but he is aware that this an area of great concern. In three completed innings in the first two Tests, the tail have amassed a grand total of 50 runs between them. The final choice will probably be between Beer – who, unlike Hauritz, has yet to suggest that he will be a source of runs down the order (top score so far 24 not out in the current Shield game against Queensland) – and Peter Siddle, the hat-trick hero, who launched Australia's pursuit of the Ashes so spectacularly at the Gabba, but who has not taken a wicket since that first innings in Brisbane.

The process of elimination tells us that Siddle's place is in doubt. Ryan Harris, a bulldozer of a bowler, even if his body has a tendency to rebel against the demands put upon it by a fiercely competitive mind, was Australia's best bowler in Adelaide. So he has to play.

Ben Hilfenhaus's style of bowling can be invaluable in Perth, where it is essential that someone is able to bowl into the wind. The Fremantle Doctor is as reliable as dear old Doctor Finlay. It is not possible to tell exactly when it will arrive but it always comes. The Swan River just beyond the Waca can often be a millpond with dinghies helplessly becalmed but they buzz along as soon as the doctor calls.

It can suit an away-swing bowler to run into that sea breeze, which blows from long leg to wide mid-off when a right-handed batsman is facing at the river end. And usually, if the ball swings, the nicks carry to the slip cordon at the Waca. Hilfenhaus is the likeliest swing bowler in the Australian side and he could therefore be a threat. Moreover, his stock has risen by virtue of not being selected for the Adelaide match. So he has to play, too.

And then, of course, there is Mitchell Johnson, whose prospects have also been enhanced by his absence in Adelaide. There was much caring talk after he was dropped for the first time in his career about the benefits of Mitch going away and clearing his mind. He needed some time to sort his game out. The priorities have changed now. Australia are desperate.

The selectors cannot possibly believe that Johnson's rehabilitation is complete. He has not bowled a competitive ball since Brisbane – to the dismay of Kim Hughes and many others. Instead they are clinging on to his record rather than the evidence of their own eyes. Johnson has taken wickets in clusters in the past. His Test figures match many of the greats. And he is fitter than Doug Bollinger. They are clutching those straws. However, Troy Cooley, Australia's bowling coach, will have worked wonders if he can transform Johnson via a few net sessions at the Waca.

So we are in topsy-turvy territory. The Australians arrive in Perth in the knowledge that defeat means that the Ashes remain with England. For the last three Ashes tours that has been England's predicament and they have been blown away. The wicket at Perth may not be quite so quick as the halcyon days but by the standards of the rest of the world there is enough life for the pace bowlers and more encouragement for the spinner than there used to be.

This Test becomes a pivotal one for the Australians. Lose, and the hue and cry around the country will become deafening. If the Ashes are out of reach then there may be a headlong pursuit for fresh blood. The thirtysomethings, in particular, will be in jeopardy.

Even Ponting, the embodiment of Australia, all cragginess and steel-eyed determination under that fading baggy green, and one of the greatest players ever to represent the country, will be under extreme pressure. There will be those calling for his immediate removal as Test captain if Australia lose. Whether that will include the Australian selectors is hard to gauge. Because no one has a clue what they will come up with next.