The numbers are still coming in from last week's tornado outbreak in the south.   Even without the official numbers all in, there is no doubt the outbreak is one for the record books.   One estimate has 211 tornadoes total with several of them long-track tornadoes.  The previous record for an outbreak was held by the Super Outbreak of 1974 with 148 tornadoes touching down in a single day.  The worst of the long-track tornadoes last week was the twister that devastated Tuscaloosa, Alabama.   It may have been on the ground for mover than 220 miles.  Previously, the longest track on record was the Tri-State Tornado which remained on the ground for 219 miles back in 1925.

Analysis of this outbreak has already begun and there will enough data to pour over to keep researches busy for years.   The National Severe Storms Laboratory has produced this graphic that shows rotation tracks of the April 27 tornadoes. the bright reds and yellows show where the circulations were particularly intense.

The graphic shows just how much ground these tornadoes covered.  It is no wonder the governor of Alabama said Sunday that the federal government has classified the state's recent tornadoes as a category one natural disaster.  That was the same ranking given to the damage from Hurricane Katrina and 9/11.

Check out msnbc's interactive map that depicts all the storm reports in the days leading up to and including the oubreak on April 27th.

 

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National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) map below shows tornado tracks logged by NEXRAD Doppler Radar NOAA’s preliminary estimate is that there were 211 tornadoes on April 27-28, 2011. During the multi-day period of April 26-28, The National Weather Service (NWS) … Continue reading →

by Daniel J. Weiss.

Cross-posted from the Center for American Progress. This post was coauthored by Valeri Vasquez, special assistant for energy policy at the Center for American Progress, and Ben Kaldunski, a former intern with the Energy Team at American Progress.

“April is the cruelest month.” - T. S. Eliot

April 2011 has been a cruel month indeed for Americans due to extreme weather. The Weather Channel observed that:

It’s been a truly awful, record-setting, tornadic April. We’ve had eleven major severe weather events, some lasting multiple days.

These extreme events included supercell thunderstorms in Iowa, severe drought and record wildfires in Texas, and heavy rains across the United States. The recent Southeastern storms and tornados took at least 297 lives across eight states. And heavy rains in the Mississippi River valley could cause the most severe, damaging floods there in nearly a century.

This extreme weather, though record setting in some places, may be the new normal. Last year, unprecedented extreme weather led to a record number of disaster declarations by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The United States and the world were swept by flooding, severe winter storms, heat waves, droughts, hurricanes, and tornadoes.

The extreme weather of 2010 exacted a huge human and economic toll as well. More than 380 people died and 1,700 were injured due to weather events in the United States throughout the year. And the magnitude of these events forced the Federal Emergency Management Agency, or FEMA, to declare 81 disasters last year. For nearly 60 years, the annual average has been 33. In 2010, total damages exceeded a whopping $6.7 billion. As of April 2011, FEMA had dedicated more than $2 billion in financial assistance to those harmed by extreme weather in 2010.

A February 2011 special report from Reuters noted that it’s been rough going for the $500 billion U.S. property insurance business, explaining that “storms are happening in places they never happened before, at intensities they have never reached before and at times of year when they didn’t used to happen.”

It is precisely this uncertainty “associated with climate change that substantiates the risks to the economy and society,” says George Backus, of the Discrete Mathematics and Complex Systems Department at Sandia National Laboratories. This is bad news for a nation just emerging from the grips of the Great Recession. Per Backus, a 2010 report from Sandia estimates that “the climate uncertainty as it pertains to rainfall alone [puts] the U.S. economy is at risk of losing between $600 billion and $2 trillion, and between 4 million and 13 million U.S. jobs over the next 40 years.”

Evan Mills, a scientist in the Environmental Energy Technologies Division at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, confirms that in the United States, “insured weather-related losses in recent years have been trending upward much faster than population, inflation, or insurance penetration, and far outpace losses for non-weather-related events.”

It is difficult, of course, to link or “attribute” individual extreme weather events in a single year to global warming. Climate factors—including human influences—shape weather patterns. According to Munich Re, one of the world’s largest reinsurers, “the only plausible explanation for the rise in weather-related catastrophes is climate change.” And as Kevin Trenberth, head of the Climate Analysis Section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, explained at the American Meteorological Society’s January 2011 meeting, “Given that global warming is unequivocal, the null hypothesis should be that all weather events are affected by global warming rather than the inane statements along the lines of ‘of course we cannot attribute any particular weather event to global warming.’”

In other words, says Trenberth, “It’s not the right question to ask if this storm or that storm is due to global warming, or is it natural variability. Nowadays, there’s always an element of both.”

Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse-gas pollutants are turning up the heat on our planet. Scientists agree that the string of disastrous weather extremes this past year are the types of severe weather that will become more frequent or ferocious as the planet continues to warm. For instance, in the “first major paper of its kind” tracking global climatic trends from 1951 to 1999, Scottish and Canadian researchers used sophisticated computer models to confirm a human contribution to more intense precipitation extremes with very high confidence.

This analysis is supported by a 2010 Duke University-led study that found, “Global warming is driving increased frequency of extreme wet or dry summer weather in southeast, so droughts and deluges are likely to get worse.”

A study published in the 2011 Journal of Climate presents “evidence of a significant human influence on the increasing severity of extremely warm nights and decreasing severity of extremely cold days and nights.”

Likewise, a report by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate Central, The Weather Channel, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows that “if temperatures were not warming, the number of record daily highs and lows being set each year would be approximately even. Instead ... record high temperatures far outpace record lows across the U.S.”

The recent extreme weather should not be a surprise. In 1999, Trenberth projected that global warming would lead to severe precipitation:

An increase in heavy precipitation events should be a primary manifestation of the climate change that accompanies increases in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Nine years later, the U.S. Climate Change Program under President George W. Bush came to a very similar conclusion. “Heavy downpours have become more frequent and intense. Droughts are becoming more severe in some regions.” These are some of the extreme weather events we experienced this April, and in 2010.

Because we have not brought carbon pollution under control, the weather events of 2010 will continue to revisit us—with a vengeance. We must act quickly and unequivocally to address climate change before the threat becomes insurmountable. This includes recognizing that global warming is already affecting us both domestically and internationally.

The purpose of our report [PDF] is to gather, condense, and synthesize some of the massive amount of data about extreme weather and its links to global warming. This summary of climate science can help provide context to the recent surge in extreme weather events. In this report, we will catalogue the extreme U.S. weather in 2010 and then examine the consequences on our health and economy.

As we note in the conclusion, conservatives remain eager to dismiss these weather extremes by claiming they are solely due to natural variability. What’s more, the House of Representatives voted to defund federal science programs that gather and analyze the data essential to understand changes in global weather patterns and other climate impacts. But all this denial cannot make this threat disappear. We must act before cruel Aprils occur every month.

Related Links:

The Climate Post: The aftermath in Japan

What will the Japan disaster mean for U.S. nuclear power?

Inaction on climate change is risky business

Announcing the 2011 FERMILAB/WGN Tornado & Severe Storms Seminar on Saturday, April 30, 2011

By Meteorologist Tom Skilling

Greetings to each of you! We have an extraordinary program planned for our 31st Annual Fermilab/WGN-TV seminar which takes place this year on Saturday, April 30th. I'm very excited about this year's program and the speakers who will join me at noon Saturday, Arpil 30th and again for a repeat of the entire program at 6 p.m. The event will take place at the Ramsey Auditorium on the grounds of the Batavia-based Fermilab National Accelerator Laboratory.  Please feel free to attend either the noon session or the 6 pm session. We'd love to have you join us!  Hope to see you there and again here are the key details.

Where: Fermilab - Kirk Rd & Pine St, Batavia, Illinois, 1.630.840.3000
When:  Saturday, April 30th @12pm and again at 6pm

For a complete listing of guest speakers and topics of discussion continue reading below!

Putting these programs together the past 31 years has been a real labor of love for each of us involved in the seminar's preparation and production. The program is absolutely free! There are no tickets required--just show up! Seating is first come, first-served, so we recommend you get to the Fermilab grounds early--about an hour or hour and a half before the start of each program. As in recent years, we'll be giving away a number of NOAA Weather Radios.  Be sure you sign up at the Lake County Skywarn Booth as you approach the Ramsey Auditorium.

There's so much to talk about and share with you this year--and our speakers list is spectacular! We have an incredibly active 2011 tornado season underway and showing no sign of easing anytime soon which we intend to update and discuss. But, we've also been through quite a winter which has included one of this area's worst blizzards on record. The extraordinary Blizzard of 2011 was one for the books--the third worst snowstorm since records began in the 1884-85 snow season. Despite one of the best advance forecasts of such a storm ever, thousands ended up stranded on Lakeshore Drive--among other thoroughfares across the area. Why was that? And how was it that the storm was so accurately predicted so far in advance? We'll have insights from the National Weather Service's Dr. Louis Uccellini, Director of NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction in Camp Spring, Maryland as well as Dr. Jim Angel, our Illinois state climatologist at the Midwestern Regional Climate Center in Champaign, who will join us to discuss the work he and his colleagues have done on the impact; economically and in human terms, of February's crippling storm.

Jim Reed is one of the most respected storm chasers and extreme weather photographers on the road today. An author and all around wonderful human being, it was Jim who guided our WGN team as it encountered a multiple vortex tornado which chased us at speeds over 60 mph last May in northeast Oklahoma.  You'll meet Jim and find his presentation riveting.

We have a whole series of other presentations planned at our April 30th programs--and here's a rundown of them--both the speakers and the subjects of their talks. Both the noon and the 6pm programs run 3-4 hours with a break mid-way through.

I'm often asked if our program is suited to younger children.  Probably not. There will be all manner of "storm- in -progress" slides and videos which may frighten some young people. We've found in most past programs at Fermilab that 4th graders and older are best equipped to handle the content of our presentations.

Here are our speakers and the topics that will be discussed. Check them out!

Tom Skilling, Chief meteorologist, WGN-TV  Join us for a front row seat as we take you on a video excursion through a wild year of weather. The presentation will include our all-too-close encounter with a multiple-vortex tornado which chased us down an Oklahoma highway at 55mph. We'll also take a look at February's horrific blizzard--arguably the area's single most crippling snowstorm in decades. The blizzard, despite a week's worth of advance warning, still stranded thousands in howling 70 mph winds under drifts up to 5 to 6 ft. on Lakeshore Drive for up to 14 hours. We'll also review early returns from the already formidable 2011 tornado and severe weather season underway which is seriously outpacing the 2010 twister season to date.

Tom plans to take you on a video excursion through it all--and will even include eye-opening and horrifying video clips of the devastating Japanese tsunami in progress, as it takes apart one seaside community in the space of just 9 minutes.  The presentation will include a look at the revolution underway the past half century in meteorology which has allowed better forecasts and tracking of tornadoes and all manner of weather.

Dr. Louis W. Uccellini, Director of NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)  Dr. Uccellini will present a talk: "Forecasting The Blizzards of 2010-2011".  Warnings for Chicago's third largest snowstorm on record in February 2011 and New York City's record blizzard in December 2010 were issued with plenty of lead time; yet not all heeded the warnings.  This talk will explore how forecasters approached these storms and offer insights into how the warnings were received as the dangerous storms approached major metropolitan areas.

Extreme weather, including blizzards, tornadoes and severe thunderstorm outbreaks, are being predicted with greater accuracy and longer lead times than ever before. This past winter's blizzard in Chicago, the third largest snowstorm on record, was flagged as a potential threat for the Great Lakes region 5 to 7 days before the storm struck. Yet uncertainty in the track forecast remained even as the storm was predicted to become a large and dangerous blizzard that would impact a large area of the northern Midwest. The ability of this country's forecast system to provide forecasts of extreme events (like the blizzards and the recent major tornado outbreaks) has been decades in the making and is based on revolutionary advances in observing, numerical prediction models, computers, and the abilities of the forecasters to work with and fully utilize these sophisticated models and observations to issue warnings with increased confidence and specificity.

Global and local observations are becoming increasingly reliant on satellites and radar networks.  And today's forecast models run on supercomputers which are able to readily access over 3.5 billion observations per day and perform 70 trillion mathematical calculations per second---a speed which will double or triple over the next 4 to 5 years.  There may be no one who who has played such an active role in this revolution in weather forecasting than Dr. Louis W. Uccellini who, as Director of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (or NCEP as it is known in the meteorological profession), oversees the operations of 9 centers including the Storm Prediction Center, Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, National Hurricane Center and the Environmental Modeling Center (which plays a key role in the development of the computer models) and of the NCEP Central Operations (which maintains and runs these models on the operational supercomputers on a daily basis).  Dr. Uccellini will discuss the Chicago and New York City blizzards with a comparison showing that while the forecast and warnings highlighted the potential threat associated with the onset of these storms highlighted days before their arrival, improvements are still needed to provide predictive information and decision support required for more decisive action.  Finally, Dr. Uccellini will take your questions at the end of the presentation..

Dr. Jim Angel, State Climatologist, Midwestern Regional Climate Center February 2011 Blizzard's astounding impact: Tab on storm $400-million in snow removal costs and in lost business, nearly 7,000 miles of highways buried beneath a foot or more of snow, over 10-million impacted

The February blizzard's economic impact has come in at just under half a billion dollars in northeast Illinois alone, according to the Midwestern Regional Climate Center's Dr. Jim Angel. Angel is Illinois' state climatologist in Illinois. Just under 10 million Illinoisans alone experienced 12-inch plus accumulations and an extraordinary 6,993 miles of Illinois highways were buried beneath 12 inches.

Jim Reed, Award winning photographer "Storm Chaser: A Photographer's Journey" - Join award-winning extreme weather photographer Jim Reed as he discusses his favorite images from his critically-acclaimed book and how he captured the photos

It was veteran storm chaser Jim Reed with whom Tom Skilling and WGN producer Pam Grimes and photographers Steve Scheuer and Jordan Guzzardo traveled into the Plains last spring for a trip which led to an encounter with a multiple vortex tornado which chased them down a northeast Oklahoma highwa. The storm flipped semis and cars on their sides. WGN viewers were along every step of the way for the ride. One of the world's most accomplished and award-winning extreme-weather photographers, Jim Reed has dedicated 20 consecutive years to documenting America's changing climate for editorial and fine art clients that include National Geographic, The New York Times, and Corcoran Gallery of Art.  In 2010, Jim served as WGN's field guide on the Emmy-Award winning "Chased by Tornadoes," leading Tom to his first on-location tornado. Author of the critically-accalimed book, "Storm Chaser: A Photographer's Journey," Jim has appeared on Good Morning America, The Today Show, The Weather Channel, and many other TV shows. Check out Jim's Nikon Podcast on iTunes! You can follow Jim on Twitter: @jimreedphoto


Jim Allsopp, Warning Coordination Meteorologist, NWS Chicago  Tornadoes in the Chicago area: How often have they occurred and how do events like the current La Nina, which the cooling of the equatorial Pacific, have an impact on local tornado occurrence?

Several years ago Jim Allsopp did a study on the frequency of significant (F2 and greater) tornadoes across the eight county Chicago metro area. In 2010 Valparaiso meteorology student Tony Lyza expanded the study to the entire 23 county area served by the Chicago NWS office and also looked at correlations between tornado frequency and the El Nino/Southern Oscillation cycle.

Brian Smith, Warning Coordination Meteorologist, National Weather Service, Omaha, Nebraska "Killer Wind:  Do not ignore Severe Thunderstorm
Warnings"

Brian Smith, veteran National Weather Service meteorologist and severe weather specialist at the Service's Omaha forecast office, and former student and longtime research assistant to famed University of Chicago tornado researcher Dr. Ted Fujita, will look at derechoes and downbursts, explain what they are, how they happen and the dangers they represent.  Brian has irrefutable evidence they are just as dangerous as tornadoes and makes the case that Severe Thunderstorm Warnings should be taken just as seriously as tornado warnings and not ignored.

Dr. Mary Ann Cooper, MD, University of Illinois-Chicago The lightning injury rate in the U.S. is down but lightning injuries and deaths remain high in tropical and sub-tropical countries. What is being done to change this?

Due to the hard work of many people, the lightning injury rate in the US has declined substantially.  However, there continues to be significant numbers of injuries and deaths in tropical and subtropical countries around the world.  We cannot export the US solutions to areas where thatched roof homes and labor intensive agriculture is still the norm but must come up with other solutions including innovative educational ways to reach the people.  Dr Cooper will discuss some of the developments and outreach that is happening in these areas.

Ed Fenelon, Meteorologist in Charge of the NWS Forecast Office-Chicago Rip Currents: Killers on the Great Lakes--but what are they and what do you do when they strike?

Rip Currents caused the drowning death of 30 people last year on the Great Lakes, and on average claim 100 lives per year in the United States.  Sadly, most if not all of these lives could have been saved had people known the right thing to do.  Just what are these powerful water flows that occur at our beaches, and what do we need to be teaching our kids before they go in the water?  Ed Fenelon will talk about what ripncurrents are, and about a new partnership between beach managers, first responders, community leaders, the media, and the National Weather Service to reduce rip current drownings at our beaches.  Through advances in rip current research we are now able to predict days when rip currents may form.  By being informed before deciding to go to the beach, and following the advice of lifeguards and beach signs when there, we can ensure many happy returns to the water.  Rip Currents -
break the grip of the rip!  More information at ripcurrents.noaa.gov

The probability that a particular reactor core at a U.S. nuclear power plant will be damaged as a result of a blackout ranges from 6.5 in 100,000 to less than one in a million, according to a 2003 analysis by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

Compared to many more mundane technologies, such as cars and airplanes, nuclear power facilities are quite safe. For the past half century, we have assumed they are safe enough.

The disaster at Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear complex demands that we rethink what “safe enough” means.

American scientists have pointed out that U.S. power plants have almost no chance of experiencing the kind of earthquake and tsunami damage that the Japanese plants sustained. While the United States does have some plants located in earthquake-prone regions, the fault lines near these plants are “slip-strike” faults, while the one that triggered the tsunami in Japan was a “thrust” fault. Slip-strike faults lack the potential to cause catastrophic tsunamis, according to Per Peterson, a senior scientist with the Accelerator and Fusion Research Division at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.

But the earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan exactly three weeks ago merely precipitated the atomic plant’s crisis. What actually destroyed it was the combination of an extended blackout and the failure of its backup power systems. The question we need to consider is not whether similar earthquakes and tsunamis can happen here; it is whether a plant could, for any combination of reasons, simultaneously suffer a failure of its outside electrical supply and its on-site backups.

The answer, frighteningly but clearly, is yes. Such a combination of failures, though unlikely, can certainly happen here.

Nuclear power plants require huge amounts of power to prevent their reactor cores from melting down and releasing radiation. Given the extremely high power demands, battery power can sustain plants only for a very limited time. Of our nation’s 104 nuclear reactors, 93 can be kept cool using batteries for only four hours.

Since the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, the NRC has required power plant operators to develop ways to keep plants cool longer when they are severed from the grid. But their abilities to function independently remain limited. Furthermore, the types of natural disasters that might knock out external power can also damage backup systems. Richard Denning, a professor of nuclear engineering at Ohio State University, said in the aftermath of the Japanese accident that the steps many American power plants have taken “certainly could have made all the difference in this particular case,” but only “assuming you have stored these things in a place that would not have been swept away by tsunami.” The Japanese plants were equipped with backup diesel generators, in addition to batteries, but they were swamped by the tsunami within an hour after the earthquake knocked the plants off the grid.

Japanese engineers never allowed for the possibility that their nation could suffer a magnitude 9.0 earthquake and a 45-foot-high tsunami until it actually happened. While scientists may believe such events cannot happen here, there is an element of risk – small, but unquantifiable and certainly present – that they are wrong. Another risk factor is that quakes of lesser but still unanticipated magnitude could affect regions like the East and Midwest, which are not prepared for even California-scale temblors.

Apart from earthquakes, there are other natural conditions that occur here that can cause the same sort of two-pronged damage to the external power grid and a plant’s on-site backups.

In the Northeast, ice storms pose this sort of risk. The catastrophic Great Ice Storm of 1998 left some parts of southern Quebec, western New Brunswick and eastern Ontario without power for an entire month. Ten years later, another severe storm turned off lights for 1.25 million people in New Hampshire and surrounding states. The Northeast is home to 26 nuclear reactors, including New Hampshire’s Seabrook Station and the Vermont Yankee Nuclear Power Station.

A severe ice storm probably would not knock out a plant’s diesel generators, if it has them. But it might delay fuel replenishment long enough for the generators to fail. Or an accompanying flood, either from coastal storm surge or from ice jam flooding on a river, could do the same sort of damage to backup systems that Japan’s plants experienced.

Elsewhere, ice storms may not be a threat, but hurricanes are. In addition to causing the sort of destruction that might disable backup generators, Katrina disrupted electricity service for over 1.7 million people. Louisiana has two nuclear power plants, including the Waterford Steam Electric Station, located in Kilona, only 25 miles from New Orleans. Several other power plants stretch along the Gulf Coast, in Texas, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida. Still others dot the entire Atlantic seaboard.

Many areas of the country are potentially subject to windstorms, river flooding, dam failures, wildfires and other disasters that could pose a threat.

What happened in Japan proved that safety measures there were unacceptably weak. Our plants run similar risks, and we ought to acknowledge that our safety measures are equally unacceptable. A 6.5 in 100,000 risk is low, but when it comes to radioactive materials, it is too high, especially given the margin of error in our own ability to estimate such risks.

Nuclear meltdowns are far less likely than airplane crashes or car wrecks, but they are far more devastating, and the consequences stretch across generations. The magnitude of the potential harm requires that if we are going to use nuclear power at all, we have to backups for the backups, and probably backups for those backups as well. The plants must be safe under all conceivable circumstances and, as Japan showed, in some that are heretofore inconceivable.

Natural disasters and diesel generator failures are by no means inconceivable. Japan’s disaster warns us that the risks they pose to nuclear power plants today are more than we ought to be willing to accept.

For more articles on financial, business, and other topics, view the Palisades Hudson newsletter, Sentinel, or subscribe to my daily opinion column, Current Commentary.

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Remember the GOP propaganda pushed by Rep. John "God is infallible and science is not" Shimkus that more CO2 is good for us because it is "plant food?"

It's a lie, a lie of omission, but a lie nonetheless. Here's the reality:

Global grain production will tumble by 63 million metric tons this year, or 2 percent over all, mainly because of weather-related calamities like the Russian heat wave and the floods in Pakistan, the United Nations estimates in its most recent report on the world food supply. The United Nations had previously projected that grain yields would grow 1.2 percent this year.

The UN warns that we are dangerously close to a food crisis. This should come as no surprise to anyone, however. Reputable climatologists have been predicting exactly these sort of crop failures as a result of increased carbon emissions for some time now. Indeed, in 2007, one study reported that crop yields had declined between 1981-2002:

Global warming has already caused crop losses according to a new study by researchers at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and the Carnegie Institution at Stanford University.

The study, published March 16 in the online journal Environmental Research Letters, shows that warming temperatures have reduced the combined production of wheat, corn, and barley by 40 million metric tons per year between 1981-2002. The authors, David Lobell of Lawrence Livermore and Christopher Field of the Carnegie Institution, estimate the annual losses at $5 billion. "Most people tend to think of climate change as something that will impact the future," said Field. "But this study shows that warming over the past two decades has already had real effects on global food supply." [...]

Lobell and Field say their results show "a clear and simple correlation between temperature increases and crop yields at the global scale" and should spur farmers and policy-makers to begin adapting to climate change.

Why? More severe weather events like droughts, floods, monsoons, extreme storms etc., for one. Not to mention the ongoing die off of phytoplankton in our oceans, the major source of oxygen production on earth. Guess the culprit that is causing this serious and rapid decline.

The amount of phytoplankton - tiny marine plants - in the top layers of the oceans has declined markedly over the last century, research suggests.

Writing in the journal Nature, scientists say the decline appears to be linked to rising water temperatures. [...]

"Phytoplankton... produce half of the oxygen we breathe, draw down surface CO2, and ultimately support all of our fisheries," said Boris Worm, another member of the Dalhousie team.

Other scientists have published papers that show that increasing CO2 will actually make crops less nourishing and lead to malnutrition because increased carbon dioxide also lessens the amount of nitrogen (also a "plant food") in the atmosphere as well as other essential nutrients, as this article from 2005 reports:

A small but growing body of research is finding that elevated levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide, while increasing crop yield, decrease the nutritional value of plants. More than a hundred studies, for example, have found that when CO2 from fossil-fuel burning builds up in plant tissues, nitrogen (essential for making protein) declines. A smaller number of studies hint at another troubling impact: As atmospheric CO2 levels go up, trace elements in plants (such as zinc and iron, which are vital to animal and human life) go down, potentially malnourishing all those that subsist on the plants. This preliminary research has given scientists reason to worry about bigger unknowns: Virtually no studies have been done on the effects of elevated CO2 on other essential trace elements, such as selenium, an important antioxidant, or chromium, which is believed to regulate blood-sugar levels. [...]

One rice study found that four out of five elements decreased when grown in CO2-enriched air, with nitrogen dropping 14 percent, phosphorus 5 percent, iron 17 percent, and zinc 28 percent. Only calcium showed an increase, of 32 percent. The other rice study showed no significant change in micronutrient levels. In wheat, on average, every measured element except potassium declined in three studies. A just-published study by Chinese researchers led by Dong-Xiu Wu found that while high CO2 levels significantly increased grain yield, they severely decreased nutrient quality: nitrogen concentrations fell by 15 percent, phosphorus by 36 percent, potassium by 23 percent, and zinc by 32 percent.

Mattson points to still another problem with CO2. "Something else that may exacerbate micronutrient deficiency is that added CO2 tends to drive up [the production of] many plant non-nutrients" -- poisons that enhance plant defenses against their would-be consumers. "The sum total of lowered nitrogen, lowered essential micronutrients, and heightened [plant poisons such as] tannins and other phenolics could be the worst kind of soup," he says. What we're doing, he believes, is running an unregulated and probably irrevocable chemical experiment on earth's ecosystems.

The decline in phytoplankton has been 40% in just the last 60 years. That's an amazing and disturbing finding, and one that potentially threatens the lives of billions of people. And the results that carbon emissions are making our food less nutritious is astonishing evidence that the simple minded idea that more CO2 is good for humanity is complete cow manure. Yet, God fearing Rep. Shimkus scoffs that human activity can have any effect on the planet because God won't let that happen:

To get a quick summary of all the facts which debunk Rep. Shimkus' idiotic talking point that more carbon emissions are good for us because it "plant food" watch this video courtesy of Peter Sinclair of Climate Denial Crock of the Week:

You know what is really scary? Shimkus is one likely contender for chairperson of the House Committee on Energy and Commerce. The other possible chairpersons are just as dismissive of global warming and with the many new Republican global warming deniers elected to Congress, are ready to go to war against climate change science and promote more oil and gas drilling and more use of fossil fuels.

Shimkus is now one of four contenders to head the House Committee on Energy and Commerce when the Republicans take the reins in January. Also vying for the leadership post: Rep. Joe Barton of Texas, who apologized to BP for what he called a White House "shakedown" when it agreed to establishing the $20 billion Gulf oil spill trust fund; Rep. Cliff Stearns of Florida, who wants to open up Alaska's wildlife refuge to drilling; and Michigan's Fred Upton.

Upton is considered the front-runner and probably the most moderate of the bunch. He has vowed to eliminate an offshoot of the committee, the House Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming.

"The American people do not need Congress to spend millions of dollars to write reports and fly around the world," Upton wrote in a recent editorial. "We must terminate this wasteful committee."

Elections matter. And without a cooperative Congress, the USA will continue its drift toward scientific illiteracy in order preference the profits of fossil fuel companies over the future interest of our planet and our children. I foresee more drilling disasters like BP's Deep Horizon well, more 100 year floods and storms and droughts, more contaminated groundwater from hydrofracking and an effort by the Republicans to eviscerate the authority of the EPA by slashing its budget.

We are at a turning point in world history and the saddest part about this tremendous challenge we face is that the Morans of the GOP are now in charge of driving the agenda on our nation's response to climate change. Unless Democrats in Congress stand firm (highly unlikely in my opinion) or President Obama refuses to sign a budget bill that makes the EPA small enough to drown in a bathtub, we will be passive observers to an ever increasing and life threatening crisis of which many of our fellow citizens are simply ignorant.

Hansen discusses a poorly understood topic: when methane (natural gas, CH4) is underwater under conditions of high pressure and low temperature, it can form methane “clathrates,” a form of water ice that contains large amounts of methane inside its structure. Methane clathrates are stable at low temperature and high pressure. At warmer temperatures or lower pressures, they become unstable, releasing methane in gaseous form.

This allows the possibility of a chain reaction, in which some event (e.g., warming) triggers the release of methane, which is a potent greenhouse gas. If enough methane is released, it will warm the earth enough to destabilize more methane clathrates, releasing even more methane.

Hansen discusses the hypothesis that methane clathrates accumulate in the arctic tundra (frozen ground) and beneath sediment on the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. How much methane clathrate is down there? Estimates vary widely, but the larger estimates are enormous. (Methane clathrates are present in the Gulf of Mexico, in a concentration high enough to defeat an attempt in May 2010 to fix the infamous Deep Horizon oil leak.) The worldwide clathrates constitute a “gun” that can be triggered, resulting in a huge rise in methane levels and global temperatures.

Hansen believes that methane clathrates may have played a crucial role in the largest mass extinction, the “end-Permian” event 251 million years ago, in which more than 90 percent of terrestrial and marine species were exterminated (147). This event was accompanied by a temperature rise of at least 6°C. Life took fifty million years to recover the diversity that it had before the mass extinction.

But hey, CO2 is good for plants, global warming is no big deal and God will save us in any case (unless he or she really does want the world to end). Just ask Rep. Shimkus.

In other words, we have nothing to fear but Republican cynicism, stupidity, ignorance, Christian extremists, and their the anti-science agenda and the greed of Big Oil and Big Coal. Piece of cake.

Discuss

Is ‘Peak Oil’ Behind Us?

Peak oil is not just here — it’s behind us already.

That’s the conclusion of the International Energy Agency, the Paris-based organization that provides energy analysis to 28 industrialized nations. According to a projection in the agency’s latest annual report, released last week, production of conventional crude oil — the black liquid stuff that rigs pump out of the ground — probably topped out for good in 2006, at about 70 million barrels per day. Production from currently producing oil fields will drop sharply in coming decades, the report suggests.

Oil prices up to $90 won't hurt global economy: Iran

TEHRAN: Iran's OPEC governor said oil prices of $70-$90 per barrel would not hurt the global economy, the oil ministry's official website SHANA reported on Sunday.

"Consumers and producers are unanimous that the oil at $70-$90 prices are suitable prices and will not hurt the global economy," Mohammad Ali Khatibi told SHANA.

IEA throws doubt on weak dollar driving up oil price

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has questioned the market belief that oil prices must inevitably continue to rise as the US dollar weakens.

Bullish commodities investors should be careful what they wish for, it said in its latest monthly report, released last week.

Iraq sees gas field output at 25 pct in three years

(Reuters) - Iraq expects commercial production from its gas fields to be at 25 percent of the production target within the first three years, an oil official said on Sunday.

"The first commercial production from the gas fields that should be achieved by the contractor will be 25 percent of the production target within the first three years, and the final production target set in the contract should be achieved in six years," said Abdul-Mahdy al-Ameedi, head of the ministry's licensing and contracting office.

BP to begin drilling for oil in Libyan desert

Troubled oil giant BP is expected to start drilling for oil in Ghadames basin in the Sahara desert next month, a milestone in its controversial deal with Libya.

Feuding feds agree to tests on blowout preventer

Beginning Monday, forensic engineers will put the blowout preventer retrieved from the Deepwater Horizon through a battery of tests designed to reveal why it failed to stop gushing oil and gas at BP's Macondo well this year.

A last-minute compromise among federal agencies will ensure that the U.S. Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board has its own representative in the testing facility, along with five other experts from BP, rig owner Transocean, blowout preventer manufacturer Cameron International, the Justice Department and the plaintiffs in a multidistrict class action lawsuit tied to the oil spill.

What caused the Deepwater Horizon disaster? There's a clue at Chernobyl

One decision, the most crucial, is particularly puzzling. In the hours before the accident, men on the rig carried out the essential test that would tell them whether oil and gas were – potentially fatally – leaking into the well. Three times they tried it and each time the result signalled danger. But they decided to proceed as if all was well.

The well was blown,” Sean Grimsley, one of the inquiry’s deputy chief counsels told us. “Hydrocarbons were leaking in. But for whatever reason the crew decided it was a good test. The question is why these experienced men out on that rig talked themselves into believing that it indicated well integrity. None of them wanted to die.”

The same question arose at another inquiry I covered, nearly a quarter of a century ago, into Chernobyl itself. It is now fashionable to blame the accident on the Russian RBMK reactor design. But, though this was not great, the world’s worst nuclear disaster was, in fact, caused by a similar chain of human errors.

Iran to raise Abadan gasoline output in Feb

TEHRAN: Iran will increase gasoline production capacity of the Abadan refinery to 16 million litres per day from February, an Oil Ministry official said yesterday, state television reported.

By inaugurating the gasoline producing scheme, the gasoline production capacity of the refinery will be increased by 6.5 million barrel per day and reach 16 million litres," said Alireza Mehraban, managing director of the Abadan refinery. Mehraban said the production capacity of the refinery was currently 10 million litres per day.

Gas field talks still on hold between Japan, China

TOKYO — Japan’s foreign minister urged China on Sunday to reopen talks on developing natural gas deposits off islands claimed by both countries.

His Chinese counterpart, however, said tensions must cool before things can move forward, a Japanese Foreign Ministry official said on condition of anonymity, citing protocol.

Topaz to target Brazil and West Africa

The time is right for Topaz Energy and Marine, the Dubai marine services and oil and gas engineering group, to enter markets offshore Brazil and West Africa, according to the company's Omani parent.

Grant helps Montana Refinery and Brix-Berg expand horizons

In the world of oil refineries, Montana Refining Co.'s Great Falls facility, which processes 10,000 barrels of heavy oil a day, is unique. It is one of the smallest refineries making a full slate of petroleum products, manufacturing gasoline, jet fuel, asphalt and more.

How to Get In Early On America's Next Great Commodity Boom

So where will the natural gas go? This is an interesting question, because it yields some surprising answers.

I attended the ASPO conference last month in Washington, D.C. (ASPO stands for the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas.) One of the more fascinating presentations was by Jonathan Callahan, founder of Mazama Science.

He looked at natural gas through the lens of the import/export markets. This is a good thing to do for any commodity because it can tip you off to what's happening in that market. When China went from being one of the biggest exporters of soybeans to the biggest importer, the effect on agricultural markets was huge.

Peak Oil: Not if but when (audio)

Each year the world’s oil consumption grows. And as consumption grows, so do fears of shortages and rocketing petrol prices.

According to the International Energy Agency, the planet’s oils fields are already in decline – meaning that oil production is about to peak before significantly falling behind demand.

The question is therefore not ‘if’ we’ll run out of oil - but ‘when’.

2SER’s Tom Washington spoke to one of the world’s leading peak oil authorities, Professor Kjell Aleklett, about the issue.

Oil demand peak 'by 2020' if CO2 is cut aggressively

Oil demand could peak within 10 years, but only if governments act aggressively to curb carbon emissions, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts in its latest long-term energy outlook.

New International Energy and Climate Report Like a Classic Scary Movie

The scariest movie ever, IMHO, is the original The Haunting, released in 1963. It has none of the computer graphics, gore, or techno-sizzle frou-frou found in today's fright flicks. It wouldn't have needed any of that embellishment, even if it had been available in that bygone time. Weird lighting, odd camera angles, and jarring cinematography were enough to prime the psychological pumps of fear.

In a strange sort of way, that's how the International Energy Agency's annual World Energy Outlook (WEO) can stir up anyone who worries about humanity's growing pressure on natural life support systems. It doesn't hit you over the head with the melodramatic language and exclamation points often found in climate change action alerts. Instead, the WEO's dry prose and pedestrian graphics are plenty to get anyone who has a passing grasp of energy issues to wonder if we can crack the global energy nut before it cracks human civilization.

Is this Peak Oil? Go figure

Someone once said that to understand the term "expert," one must first understand that an "ex" is a "has been," and a "spurt" is a "drip under pressure." Nowhere is this more evident recently than in describing our so-called economic "exspurts," specifically the shills at the International Energy Agency.

Panic Time for Peak Oil Pundits

It seems the panic time for both green enthusiasts and peak oil pundits.

According to a new paper by two researchers at the University of California – Davis, it would take 131 years for replacement of gasoline and diesel given the current pace of research and development; however, world's oil could run dry almost a century before that.

A useful little point about new technology and searching for natural resources

Yes, sure, there really are physical limits to the resources we can dig out of the ground. But the limitations, at least in any relevant sense, aren’t the limits to such resources that exist: it’s the technologies we have to get at them.

Why Peak Oil is Peak Idiocy

I reported earlier today on the ongoing oil boom in North Dakota's Bakken region, which has set fresh oil production records in six out of the last seven months and now produces 6% of America's crude oil. And all of this is taking place in an area that was never expected to produce so much oil, despite the 4.3 billion barrel estimate of reserves there, because the dense, nonporous rock in the Bakken region makes extraction extremely difficult and costly. That all changed when advanced horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing techniques started successfully tapping Bakken oil two miles below the surface in 2006.

Energy Secretary Chu in sprint to put stimulus to work on renewable innovations

Chu - a Nobel Prize-winning physicist, former director of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and former professor at Stanford and the University of California at Berkeley - has been in a hurry to get the stimulus money out the door. The sense of urgency is something he has tried to infuse in others. One day in 2009, after biking to the office, he met with a handful of top officials awaiting their swearing-in ceremony.

"Be nice, but don't be patient," he told them, according to one of the officials.

Masdar to Maintain Clean-Energy City Budget, Plan, Chief Al Jaber Says

Masdar, Abu Dhabi’s government- backed renewable energy company, is on track to develop a clean- energy city on time and intends to maintain its current level of spending, its chief executive officer said.

“We are not scaling back, we are not scaling down,” Sultan Al Jaber said today in an interview on the sidelines of a conference in Abu Dhabi. “Our plans are very much the same. Our budget is very much the same.” He declined to disclose figures.

‘Smart’ Meters Draw Complaints of Inaccuracy

The Robertsons are not satisfied by the official explanations.

They noted that their old meter measured 829 kilowatt-hours of electricity use in for their August-September billing cycle last year. For the comparable period this year, they say, the smart meter counted a more than threefold increase, to 2,772 kilowatt-hours — despite the Robertson’s efforts to reduce their energy use by cutting back on air-conditioning and switching to energy-efficient fluorescent light bulbs.

Nuclear protests suggest Merkel's tenure not renewable

The backlash to the German chancellor’s decision to extend the life cycle of 17 nuclear plants has been felt on the streets. Leaving its mark on the ballot box may be next.

The protests by tens of thousands of people against the shipping of radioactive waste to a storage site in northern Germany last week have revealed the strength of public opposition to a nuclear policy that will haunt Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, for the remainder of her term.

The Rise Of State Capitalism

The financial meltdown of 2008-09 brought unprecedented disrepute to capitalism and its proponents alike. Many sceptics even termed the crisis as the beginning of the end of free markets. But there is another monstrous trend that threatens the existence of the free-market system as we know it: the obtrusive ascent of command economies on the back of ‘state capitalism’ — a system in which ruling elites use markets to extend their own political and economic leverage. In The End Of The Free Market, US-based political analyst Ian Bremmer expertly illustrates the rise of state capitalism and the threat it poses.

Bremmer says China is experimenting with a form of state capitalism that is being increasingly emulated by others such as authoritarian governments in Russia, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Ukraine and Algeria. The trend is also seen in democracies such as India and Brazil, though in a limited way. Bremmer says some state-owned energy companies have grown so big that they will play a dominant role in international politics in the years ahead. China’s rush to take control of oil assets in foreign land exemplifies this. Three quarters of global crude oil reserves are now owned by national oil companies such as Aramco (Saudi Arabia), Gazprom (Russia), CNPC (China), NIOC (Iran), PDVSA (Venezuela) and Petrobras (Brazil).

Downsizing the American Dream: The shrinking house

It's not just the inside of the house that's changing, it's the outside, too. The yards are smaller, with many developments favoring shared green spaces over big private yards.

And, the front porch is back. Builders are increasingly moving the garage to the back of the house and adding a big porch on the front.

Seeing a big porch through the dining room, and a shared green space beyond that adds to the illusion that you are getting more — and it makes you want to get out there and reconnect with your neighbors.

At the height of the market it was all about "suburban sprawl," with everyone in their backyards, with their own deck, their own swingset, their own pool — and barely knowing their neighbors. Today, the buzz word is "smart growth" — smaller more sustainable communities that really have a sense of community.

The rise of the surgical shopper as impulse buying declines

The days when shopping was a leisure activity unto itself are over, at the nation's largest shopping center and beyond. Americans are being more precise in how they shop, regardless of what they are buying.

They're visiting fewer stores, checking off their lists and walking away. They're spending less time online when they shop. They aren't stockpiling food or clothes.

Shoppers today visit an average of three stores during a trip to the mall, according to ShopperTrak, a Chicago research firm that tracks sales and customer counts at more than 70,000 stores. That compares with an average of five stores in 2006.

Film on climate change bad boy says 'Cool It' over panic

STOCKHOLM (AFP) – Humanity has what it takes to adapt to global warming and there's no need to panic: so goes the message in a new documentary on the bad boy of the climate change debate, Bjoern Lomborg.

KYRGYZSTAN: Fast Melting Glaciers Threaten Biodiversity

BISHKEK (IPS/IFEJ) - Kyrgyzstan's glaciers are receding at what scientists say is an alarming rate, fuelled by global warming. And while experts warn of a subsequent catastrophe for energy and water security for Kyrgyzstan and neighbour states downstream reliant on its water flows, devastation to local ecosystems and the effects on plant and wildlife could be just as severe.

Arab world among most vulnerable to climate change

BEIRUT, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Dust storms scour Iraq. Freak floods wreak havoc in Saudi Arabia and Yemen. Rising sea levels erode Egypt's coast. Hotter, drier weather worsens water scarcity in the Middle East, already the world's most water-short region.

The Arab world is already suffering impacts consistent with climate change predictions. Although scientists are wary of linking specific events to global warming, they are urging Arab governments to act now to protect against potential disasters.

Sea level rise threatens Alexandria, Nile Delta

ALEXANDRIA, Egypt (Reuters) - Twenty years ago, Taher Ibrahim raced his friends across Alexandria's beaches, now rising seas have swept over his favourite childhood playground.

Alexandria, with 4 million people, is Egypt's second-largest city, an industrial centre and a port that handles four-fifths of national trade. It is also one of the Middle East's cities most at risk from rising sea levels due to global warming.

"There were beaches I used to go to in my lifetime, now those beaches are gone. Is that not proof enough?" asked Ibrahim, a manager at a supermarket chain who is in his 40s.

As Glaciers Melt, Scientists Seek New Data on Rising Seas

Scientists long believed that the collapse of the gigantic ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica would take thousands of years, with sea level possibly rising as little as seven inches in this century, about the same amount as in the 20th century.

But researchers have recently been startled to see big changes unfold in both Greenland and Antarctica.

As a result of recent calculations that take the changes into account, many scientists now say that sea level is likely to rise perhaps three feet by 2100 — an increase that, should it come to pass, would pose a threat to coastal regions the world over.

And the calculations suggest that the rise could conceivably exceed six feet, which would put thousands of square miles of the American coastline under water and would probably displace tens of millions of people in Asia.

With the August recess quickly approaching it looks like Congress won't be able to pass the comprehensive energy reform oil spill bill before September. There was enough time for a House panel drop 13 ethics charges on veteran Rep. Charlie Rangel and, less significantly, for a group of senators to voice their concerns about Red Bull vodkas. Those of you upset by legislative inaction could learn a thing or two from the eternally upbeat Rand Paul, who is s turning lemons (decimated mountaintops) into lemonade (strip malls?). This is HUFFPOST HILL for Thursday, July 29th, 2010:

EXCLUSIVE: OIL, DISPERSANTS FOUND DEEP IN GULF FOOD CHAIN - So much for the emerging narrative that the BP spill wasn't a big deal. Scientists tell HuffPost's Dan Froomking that they've found signs of an oil-and-dispersant mix under the shells of "almost all" of the tiny blue crab larvae collected in the Gulf of Mexico, the first clear indication that the unprecedented use of dispersants in the BP oil spill has broken up the oil into toxic droplets so tiny that they can easily enter the food chain. The orange blobs have been spotted all the way from Grand Isle, Louisiana, to Pensacola, Fla. -- more than 300 miles of coastline -- said Harriet Perry, a biologist with the University of Southern Mississippi's Gulf Coast Research Laboratory.

HOUSE PANEL ACCUSES CHARLIE RANGEL OF 13 ETHICS VIOLATIONS - Buck up, congressman, the Chinese think 13 is a lucky number. ABC News: "Rangel, 80, who was formerly chairman of the powerful Ways and Means Committee, stands accused of 13 counts of violating House rules. He has denied any wrongdoing...The 40-year Democratic House veteran and his lawyers, who were not in attendance at today's hearing, had been negotiating with the committee to avoid a public trial but have yet to reach a deal...The outstanding alleged violations include: failing to reveal more than half a million dollars in assets on financial disclosure forms; improperly obtaining four rent-controlled apartments in New York City; and failing to disclose financial arrangements for a villa at the Punta Cana Yacht Club in the Dominican Republic." http://bit.ly/cnvN2P

Vulnerable House Dems say Rangel issues are a distraction but won't pull them down. - Lucia Graves: "Reps. Tom Perriello and Gerry Connolly said Wednesday that Charlie Rangel's impending ethics hearing will not hurt midterm election prospects for House Democrats. 'I think it's a sad and isolated case that will have a limited impact,' said Connolly. 'It adds to the narrative that [politicians are] all corrupt sadly, but I don't think it's going to be a dispositive issue in the election.'" http://huff.to/9cmNSJ

REPUBLICANS BLOCK SMALL BUSINESS BILL SUPPORTED BY CHAMBER OF COMMERCE - The failed cloture vote came after a tense exchange this morning between Mitch McConnell and Mary Landrieu -- who is shepherding the bill through the upper chamber -- over the number of Republican-offered amendments. Landrieu, as the French would say, appeared pretty friggin' POed. David Dayen in Firedoglake: "George Voinovich and George LeMieux, who earlier voted for the small business lending fund, giving it the 60 votes it needed to get into the bill, supported the party line and voted against the bill. Earlier, Reid allowed three Republican amendments to come to the floor as side-by-sides and even removed a provision that angered Republicans, but the demands kept changing." http://bit.ly/9vJo8V

As the Wall Street Journal points out, Republicans have a lot to love about the measure, which actually goes a long way in helping big businesses. "The costliest provision in the bill is a tax break for companies that make large capital purchases, including airlines and telecommunications firms. The 'bonus depreciation' tax break expired at the beginning of this year, and the bill would extend it for equipment purchased in 2010, permitting firms to write off 50% of the cost of equipment this tax year, rather than over a longer period. The provision would reduce federal revenue by $5.5 billion over the next 10 years." http://bit.ly/9DUuwL

Word comes to HuffPost Hill that the Senate will take up the bill again next week.

AP on the effect all this squabbling has on the legislative calendar: "Partisan disagreements in the Senate will delay passage of legislation responding to the Gulf oil spill until at least September, when Congress returns from its summer recess. The House is scheduled to vote on its bill Friday but will be out of town by the time the Senate takes up its version next week -- meaning Congress would have to wait to reconcile the differences. The Senate might not have the necessary 60 votes to advance the Democrats' energy and oil spill legislation, anyway, given the opposition of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky." http://bit.ly/9326RO

OBAMA SPENDING MORE MONEY ON POLLS THAN W - Sam Stein: "While Gibbs routinely chides members of the press for obsessing about the day-to-day temperamental swings of the American public, behind the scenes the White House has poured plenty of money into conducting its own public opinion polls. Through June 9, 2010, the administration, via the Democratic National Committee, has spent at least $4.45 million on the services of seven different pollsters, according to records compiled by the Center for Responsive Politics (The Huffington Post looked into only those expenditures that totaled more than $5,000). That total represents only 18 months into the administration. During the first 24 months of the Bush administration, the Republican National Committee spent $3.1 million on polling according to a 2003 study done by Brookings." http://huff.to/conoov

WashingtonPost.com has launched a Palin Endorsement Tracker: http://bit.ly/a2ed49

SHIRLEY SHERROD TO PUNISH MEDIA-SHY ANDREW BREITBART WITH LAWSUIT - The conservative media mogul will now have to contend with an increase in site traffic and media-exposure which will no doubt besmirch the good name of the Breitbart media network, known for its objective reporting and ironclad reputation among reporters. That'll show 'em! "Speaking Thursday at the National Association of Black Journalists convention, Sherrod said she would 'definitely' sue over the video that took her remarks out of context. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack has since offered Sherrod a new job in the department. She has not decided whether to accept." http://huff.to/aPa49H

First amendment experts weigh in to HuffPost:

-- Victor Kovner, a highly respected attorney for Davis Wright Tremaine: "There are a lot of unknowns, but let me say, from what I know, it is not a frivolous suit. [Sherrod must] show that not only that what [Breitbart did] was false and portrayed in a false light but it was done deliberately so. ... I think the heart of his defense would be that he was fooled and didn't know the full context... I don't think he can get a motion to dismiss. I don't think he would prevail. He may well face some discover."

-- Professor Stephen Solomon, a journalism and First Amendment professor at New York University: "It is an intriguing case, but I come back to the point that she has resolved this in the court of public opinion pretty quick. The point of a libel suit is to restore someone's reputation... She was damaged very badly in the short term. But now everyone knows this is false and she is not the person she was portrayed. She can still say she suffered and she is quite right. But if you look at the purposes of a libel suit it is to restore reputation. And after 48-hours, hers was restored. The second thing is to get monetary damages you've suffered. And then you have to ask whether... you want to go through on a five-year libel suit that will take over your life." More: http://huff.to/a3N5QU

Shocker: "'I will not give Fox an interview, period. They had their chance to get the truth, and they were not interested,' [Sherrod] said at a plenary session at the National Association of Black Journalists' convention in San Diego." http://bit.ly/a3TfJc

TOMORROW'S PAPERS TODAY - Washington Post: Michael Gerson says the need for entitlement reform is almost universally conceded. The politics of entitlement reform, however, seem hopeless. The Hill: J. Taylor Rushing on how Senate Democrats are planning to corner the GOP on Elena Kagan's nomination.

Don't be bashful: Send tips/stories/photos/events/fundraisers/job movement/juicy miscellanea to huffposthill@huffingtonpost.com. Follow us on Twitter - @HuffPostHill

RAND PAUL MODELS WINTER 2011'S HOTTEST CASHMERE SWEATERS SUBJECT OF PROFILE PIECE IN DETAILS - The article is mostly humdrum, longtime-acquaintance-X-says-what-most-people-don't- realize-about-candidate-Y-is-that-he-is-actually-very-Z fare. However this graph caught our attention: "Paul believes mountaintop removal just needs a little rebranding. 'I think they should name it something better,' he says. 'The top ends up flatter, but we're not talking about Mount Everest. We're talking about these little knobby hills that are everywhere out here. And I've seen the reclaimed lands. One of them is 800 acres, with a sports complex on it, elk roaming, covered in grass.' 'Most people,' he continues, 'would say the land is of enhanced value, because now you can build on it.'" Full piece: http://bit.ly/b0b20i

For what it's worth, here's the Natural Resources Defense Council on mountaintop removal: "1.2 million acres, including 500 mountains, have been demolished by coal companies in Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia and Tennessee. Over 89% of sites are not currently being used for economic development." http://bit.ly/bbcwrU

Paul's opponent, State Attorney General Jack Conway, won't openly support Harry Reid as majority leader. The Hill: "Conway said he didn't know if he would support Reid for another term as leader of the party in the Senate, citing Reid's own tough reelection battle this year. 'I don't know. We don't know the outcome of that race in Nevada. I don't know the outcome of a lot of these races and that kind of falls in the category of measuring the drapes,' Conway said on WHAS radio in Kentucky." http://bit.ly/9NqgGF

HOYER: HOUSE DEMS WON'T LOSE HOUSE, DOESN'T DENY DEMS WILL LOSE SEATS - That would be shy of the 43 seats Republicans need to take control of the lower chamber. Kasie Hunt in Politico: "Democrats will keep the House and likely hold their losses below 28 seats, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer predicted Thursday. Asked by reporters whether his party would lose between 28 and 33 seats this cycle, as some political analysts predict, Hoyer replied: 'I think we're going to do better than that.' The House's second-in-command noted that Democrats could go on offense to hold down their net losses, pointing to four Republican-held seats as easy targets for Democratic takeover." http://politi.co/cSXAUg

@mikeallen Cook Report emails latest forecast--House: 32 to 42 seat net gain for Republicans; Senate: 5 to 7 seat net gain for Republicans

David Axelrod today encouraged Senate Democrats to remind voters how much they hated life with a Republican congress and suggested they urge the electorate to give the Dems another chance. Roll Call's Emily Pierce: http://bit.ly/9lsjo3

In Florida, Rep. Kendrick Meek has fallen behind billionaire Jeff Greene in their bid for the Democratic Senate nomination. The Qunnipiac poll, out today, has Greene leading Meek 33% to 23%. http://bit.ly/aFOU7f

A new PPP survey of Cah-lee-forn-ians finds they prefer recalled Governor Gray Davis over Arnold Schwarzenegger, the man who replaced Davis. "44% on our most recent poll said they'd rather have Davis as Governor to 38% who picked Schwarzenegger. Democrats (64%) are more unified around the desire for Davis than Republicans are around Schwarzenegger (59%), although independents do lean toward the current Governor by a 41-37 margin." http://bit.ly/cUxL5j
We were very excited by this headline, then very disappointed when we clicked the link: "Labrador speaks in place of Bachmann at 'Fire Pelosi' rally" http://bit.ly/cbNga2

THANK YOU LORD FOR THESE GIFTS WE ARE ABOUT TO RECEIVE: TOM TANCREDO LAUNCHES BID FOR GOVERNOR OF COLORADO - The former congressman, presidential candidate, rabid anti-immigrant advocate and soon to be spoiler for control-c, control-v enthusiast Scott McInnis is making it official today. "Tancredo says he is launching a third party candidacy because he doesn't believe that either of the two current GOP gubernatorial candidates can beat Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper, the likely Democrat nominee. Tancredo called on Scott McInnis and Dan Moes, who have both been beset by scandals, to withdraw from the general election race after the August 10 primary, if polls suggest that Hickenlooper is far ahead. Both candidates say they are staying in the race." CNN: http://bit.ly/9aWEC1

Tancredo calling civil rights organization La Raza "a Latino KKK without the hoods or the nooses": http://bit.ly/fzarH

Tancredo's bill to eliminate temporary visas: http://bit.ly/d1gx4A

Tancredo suggesting we bomb Mecca and Medina: http://bit.ly/8YPrkq

Republican Nevada gubernatorial candidate and apparently conflicted Hispanic-American Brian Sandoval isn't worried about his whether kids would be pulled over under Arizona's draconian immigration law. No need for concern, he told Univision, "my children don't look Hispanic.". The Sun's Jon Ralson: "Sandoval denied (twice) making the comments during an interview with 'Face to Face' this week. But the comments are on videotape, I have confirmed. Univision, however, is declining to release the tape, claiming (as most media organizations would) that it is work product." http://bit.ly/cJh70X

OBAMA MISLEADS PUBLIC ABOUT PRIOR KNOWELDGE OF SNOOKI, AMERICA AWAITS HIS RESIGNATION - In his "View" appearance, taped yesterday and aired this morning, the president told the hosts, "I've got to admit, I don't know who Snooki is. I'm sorry." The thing is, THE PRESIDENT ABSOLUTELY TOTALLY COMPLETELY KNOWS WHO SNOOKI IS. From his White House Correpsondents Dinner speech: "The following individuals shall be excluded from the indoor tanning tax within this bill - Snooki, J-WOWW, the Situation, and House Minority Leader John Boehner." http://bit.ly/aFftxG

P.S. You've only got a few hours to Gym Tan Laundry before the season premiere of Jersey Shore tonight.

WITH COUNTRY MIRED IN TWO WARS, UNENDING RECESSION, SENATE GOES AFTER THE REAL ENEMY: JOOSE - Joking aside, this is kind of serious. A group of Democratic senators are targeting the two things that keep us going, alcohol and Red Bull. From the release provided to HuffPost Hill: "Today, U.S. Senators Charles E. Schumer (D-NY), Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) and Jeff Merkley (D-OR) called on the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to immediately make public its findings from an investigation into possible health risks posed by so-called 'energy drinks"'that combine alcohol and caffeine...November 2009, the FDA demanded that the makers of these beverages supply information to prove the safety of their product, but the agency has yet to produce a finding."

ATTENTION CONGRESS, YOUR SUMMER INTERNS DON'T HAVE ENOUGH TO DO - Reader Alyssa sends along this Lady Gaga spoof with a DC twist. The video was released today by disillusioned former Hill interns who we hear are still interning elsewhere in Washington. A barrel of laughs...maybe. A barrel of pent-up frustrations...absolutely. Behold, "On The Metro." http://bit.ly/cnVE89

Hey, speaking of!...

JEREMY THE INTERN'S WEATHER REPORT - After a wonderful little storm today, it's best not to let down your guard. Tonight: The National Weather Service has issued a severe thunderstorm watch until 7 p.m., and with good reason. Little storms are still popping up, and later in the afternoon, it might get more violent. Tomorrow: Cooler, clearer and a bit drier. Expect high-80s temperatures and blue skies through most of the day. Thanks, JB!

COMFORT FOOD

- Some ironic, GOP-friendly signs. http://huff.to/9vbhy6

- We're pretty sure we've found the Republican Alvin Greene. http://bit.ly/bwsK8K

- At long last, Steve Carrell goes "Between Two Ferns." http://huff.to/c3i5Bc

- The longest pinhole exposure ever. http://bit.ly/cfw6Qx

- 35 really boring video games. http://bit.ly/dBL42W

- Probably the best possible nerdy Valentine's Day card we've ever seen. http://bit.ly/cM9qM5

TWITTERAMA

@kathrynlopez: i could be wrong. wouldn't be the first time.

@BorowitzReport: Wait, it's "WikiLeak"? That explains it. I thought they said those documents came from Ricki Lake.

@brianbeutler: @brianbeutler: Link of the day: http://bit.ly/bi9fcE

THE TUBE

TONIGHT: Arizona AG Terry Goddard was on Ratigan. Bernie Sanders, Luis Gutierrez and Jim Moran are on The Ed Show. Jan Brewer appears on Jon King, USA, broadcasting from Arizona. TOMORROW: Barney Frank discusses online gambling on the Daily Rundown.

ON TAP

TONIGHT

8:45 pm - 10:45 pm: The Capitol Riverfront Outdoor Underdog Film Festival screens "Happy Gilmore" [Canal Park, 200 M St SE].

5:30 pm - 7:30 pm: John Hall (D-N.Y.) apparently is quite the gastronome. He hosts a fundraiser at the newly-opened We The Pizza [We The Pizza, 305 Pennsylvania Ave., SE].

5:30 pm - 7:00 pm: Debbie Halvorson (D-Ill.) puts on a "Political Update Reception." That update will cost you $1,000 [Bistro Bis, 15 E Street NW].

6:00 pm: Rush Hold (D-N.J.) raises the dough for his reelect [National Democratic Club Townhouse, 40 Ivy Street SE].

TOMORROW

5:00 pm - 8:30 pm: Jazz in the Garden this week features trombonist John Jensen [Smithsonian Sculpture Garden, 700 Constitution Avenue NW].

8:20 pm - 10:20 pm: The Rosslyn "I Love The 90s" Film Festival this week screens "Dumb and Dumber" [Gateway Park, 1300 Lee Highway].

11:45 am: Ed Whitfield (R-Ky.), who has been on an absolute fundraising TEAR as of late, hosts a luncheon [Charlie Palmer Steak, 101 Constitution Ave NW].

12:00 pm: John Campbell (R-Calif.) also gets in on the steakhouse action [Charlie Palmer Steak, 101 Constitution Ave NW].

5:00 pm - 6:30 pm: Xavier Becerra (D-Calif.) invites you to "Cool Down and Chill Out." We usually just buy a beer but his $1,000-a-guest option works too, we suppose. [National Democratic Club Townhouse, 40 Ivy Street SE].

Got something to add? Send tips/quotes/stories/photos/events/fundraisers/job movement/juicy miscellanea to Eliot Nelson (eliot@huffingtonpost.com), Ryan Grim (ryan@huffingtonpost.com) or Nico Pitney (nico@huffingtonpost.com). Follow us on Twitter @HuffPostHill (twitter.com/HuffPostHill). Sign up here: http://huff.to/an2k2e

Crane moves radome into position during installation of radar antennae at NOAA’s National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman, Oklahoma Photo from NOAA How does weather radar work? Radar, an acronym for RAdio Detection And Ranging, was invented during World War II to detect aircraft, but precipitation frequently got in the way. The military’s noise is meteorology’s signal. A [...]

Pasadena CA (JPL) May 31, 2010 - Hurricanes, air quality and Arctic ecosystems are among the research areas to be investigated during the next five years by new NASA airborne science missions announced.

The five competitively-selected proposals, including one from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif., are the first investigations in the new Venture-class series of low-to-moderate-cost projects established last year.

The Earth Venture missions are part of NASA's Earth System Science Pathfinder program. The small, targeted science investigations complement NASA's larger research missions. In 2007, the National Research Council recommended that NASA undertake these types of regularly solicited, quick-turnaround projects.

This year's selections are all airborne investigations. Future Venture proposals may include small, dedicated spacecraft and instruments flown on other spacecraft.

"I'm thrilled to be able to welcome these new principal investigators into NASA's Earth Venture series," said Edward Weiler, associate administrator of the agency's Science Mission Directorate in Washington. "These missions are considered a 'tier 1' priority in the National Research Council's Earth Science decadal survey. With this selection, NASA moves ahead into this exciting type of scientific endeavor."

The missions will be funded during the next five years at a total cost of not more than $30 million each. The cost includes initial development and deployment through analysis of data. Approximately $10 million was provided through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act toward the maximum $150 million funding ceiling for the missions.

Six NASA centers, 22 educational institutions, nine U.S. or international government agencies and three industrial partners are involved in these missions. The five missions were selected from 35 proposals.

The selected missions are:

1. Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment. Principal Investigator Charles Miller, NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif.

The release and absorption of carbon from Arctic ecosystems and its response to climate change are not well known because of a lack of detailed measurements. This investigation will collect an integrated set of data that will provide unprecedented experimental insights into Arctic carbon cycling, especially the release of important greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane.

Instruments will be flown on a Twin Otter aircraft to produce the first simultaneous measurements of surface characteristics that control carbon emissions and key atmospheric gases.

2. Airborne Microwave Observatory of Subcanopy and Subsurface. Principal Investigator Mahta Moghaddam, University of Michigan

North American ecosystems are critical components of the global exchange of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide and other gases within the atmosphere. To better understand the size of this exchange on a continental scale, this investigation addresses the uncertainties in existing estimates by measuring soil moisture in the root zone of representative regions of major North American ecosystems.

Investigators will use NASA's Gulfstream-III aircraft to fly synthetic aperture radar that can penetrate vegetation and soil to depths of several feet.

3. Airborne Tropical Tropopause Experiment. Principal Investigator Eric Jensen, NASA's Ames Research Center in Moffett Field, Calif.

Water vapor in the stratosphere has a large impact on Earth's climate, the ozone layer and how much solar energy Earth retains. To improve our understanding of the processes that control the flow of atmospheric gases into this region, investigators will launch four airborne campaigns with NASA's Global Hawk remotely piloted aerial systems. The flights will study chemical and physical processes at different times of year from bases in California, Guam, Hawaii and Australia.

4. Deriving Information on Surface Conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality. Principal Investigator James Crawford, NASA's Langley Research Center in Hampton, Va.

Satellites can measure air quality factors like aerosols and ozone-producing gases in an entire column of atmosphere below the spacecraft, but distinguishing the concentrations at the level where people live is a challenge. This investigation will provide integrated data of airborne, surface and satellite observations, taken at the same time, to study air quality as it evolves throughout the day. NASA's B-200 and P-3B research aircraft will fly together to sample a column of the atmosphere over instrumented ground stations.

5. Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel. Principal Investigator Scott Braun, NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md.

The prediction of the intensity of hurricanes is not as reliable as predictions of the location of hurricane landfall, in large part because of our poor understanding of the processes involved in intensity change.

This investigation focuses on studying hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean basin using two NASA Global Hawks flying high above the storms for up to 30 hours. The Hawks will deploy from NASA's Wallops Flight Facility in Virginia during the 2012 to 2014 Atlantic hurricane seasons.

"These new investigations, in concert with NASA's Earth-observing satellite capabilities, will provide unique new data sets that identify and characterize important phenomena, detect changes in the Earth system and lead to improvements in computer modeling of the Earth system," said Jack Kaye, associate director for research of NASA's Earth Science Division in the Science Mission Directorate.

Langley manages the Earth System Pathfinder program for the Science Mission Directorate. The missions in this program provide an innovative approach to address Earth science research with periodic windows of opportunity to accommodate new scientific priorities.

Just to give a sense of the value of tornado warnings, Harold Brooks and Chuck Doswell of the National Severe Storms Laboratory estimate that prior to the National Weather Service issuing tornado warnings the fatality rate from these storms was 1.8 per million. Today it is .11. This suggests that...

KOTV reports Patrick Marsh, a student employee at the NOAA's National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman, Oklahoma, is currently trying to collect photos of snow on the ground in all 50 states.

A winter storm moving through the South could means that there will be snow on the ground in all 50 states, which has likely never happened before. Snow in Florida clinched it, according to the Patrick Marsh of the National Severe Storms Laboratory. Meanwhile, Dallas snowfall...

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Great swaths of Britain are buried under more than a foot of snow as the country shivers through its coldest winter since 1981. Airports have been shut down, trains have been canceled, and the army had to be called out to rescue more than 1,000 motorists stranded in Hampshire.

In Germany, most of which is also blanketed in white, temperatures have dipped to record lows of -7.6 degrees Fahrenheit. In Norway, reports the AP, the thermometer read -42 F degrees on January 5, the coldest reading since 1987.

 

The eastern two-thirds of the United States is coping with unusually severe cold. Atlantic, Iowa, posted a temperature of 29 below zero, breaking a record set in 1958. Florida’s $9.3 billion citrus crop hangs in the balance as the coldest weather in years is draping palm fronds with icicles and causing iguanas to drop frozen from the trees.

 

Could it be global cooling? A Tory MP was jeered for suggesting as much in parliament. If the members had been hooting the unscientific use of particular weather to draw vast conclusions about climate, the derision would have been justified. But the avatars of climate change have been over-interpreting changeable weather for years. So the members were probably just toeing the climate-change party line with their catcalls.

The cold snap has spurred the “warmists” to spin control. Here’s a typical AP headline: “Cold Weather Doesn’t Disprove Global Warming: Experts.” And this from the Voice of America: “Meteorologists: Global Warming and Cold Weather Go Hand-In-Hand.” The World Meteorological Organization is at pains to distinguish between weather and climate. “I think we have to be careful not to interpret any single event as a proof of either warming or the fact that warming has stopped,“ cautioned Secretary-General Michel Jarraud.

Ah. Where has he been? As recently as eleven months ago, when brushfires raged across Australia, the “experts” were ready with interpretations. “Why Global Warming May Be Fueling Australia’s Fires,” reported Time magazine. The Huffington Post quoted Neville Nicholls, “an expert on climate change and wildfires” at Australia’s Monash University: “The terrible events of the past couple of weeks are, without doubt, partly the result of global warming and the greenhouse effect.” Can’t have doubt, can we?

CBS’s morning show chimed in with this report from correspondent Daniel Sieberg:

A dire new warning from scientists says the amount of greenhouse-gas emissions worldwide is higher than predicted.#...#Scientists say those higher temperatures are fueling the intensity of wildfires, now raging in places like Australia.#...#[It's] a vicious cycle. Each changing ecosystem affecting the other and made worse by human activities. For environmentalists and many others, it's a cycle that needs to be broken. And soon.

When Hurricane Katrina devastated the Gulf Coast, “warmist” gnomes were thick on the ground, inviting us to conclude that Katrina’s deadly force resulted from global warming and that the world was entering an era of fierce storms, fires, and floods -- a green apocalypse. Al Gore mentioned Katrina in An Inconvenient Truth, asking, “How in God’s name could that happen here? There had been warnings that hurricanes would get stronger. There were warnings that this hurricane#...#would cause the kind of damage that it ultimately did cause. And one question that we, as a people, need to decide is how we react when we hear warnings from the leading scientists in the world.”

Those scientists (whether they are “leading” or not is a subjective matter) supplied their own panicky conclusions. A study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences concluded that “global warming caused by humans is largely responsible for heating hurricane-forming regions of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, probably increasing the intensity of the storms.” The Boston Globe quoted lead scientist Ben Santer of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, “Natural variability doesn’t cut it for the observed ocean temperatures. The study suggests we are responsible.”

Just by the way, the 2009 hurricane season was unusually mild.

For more than a decade now, the climate avengers have seized upon every warm summer, forest fire, hurricane, and tornado to grind their axe. Here’s one last example from the Washington Post exactly two years ago.

Last year was the warmest in the continental United States in the past 112 years -- capping a nine-year warming streak 'unprecedented in the historical record' that was driven in part by the burning of fossil fuels, the government reported yesterday.#...#Many researchers are concerned that rising temperatures could lead to widespread melting of the polar ice caps, resulting in higher sea levels and more extreme droughts and storms.

They hooted when a British politician cited the cold weather as evidence of a “cooling trend.” But she learned her “science” from the masters.

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It rarely snows when the temperature drops below 0 degrees Fahrenheit, not because it is too cold but because the atmosphere is too stable. Snow occurs when there is enough lifting of saturated air. Source: NOAA’s National Severe Storms Laboratory

On average, 13 inches of snow equals 1 inch of rain. The ratio depends on the type of snow, however. Only 2 inches of sleet but nearly 50 inches of powdery snow can equal 1 inch of rain. Source: NOAA’s National Severe Storms Laboratory

When lightning occurs in a snowstorm, it is called thundersnow. This can occur when there is strong instability and abundant moisture above the surface, such as above a warm front.  Source: NOAA’s National Severe Storms Laboratory