By Paul Kuharsky   Free agency has the potential to change things. But after the draft, here are three Colts who are more valuable/ more important than they were before: Adam Vinatieri: I didn’t expect Indianapolis to draft a kicker. But Vinatieri is a free agent no matter how things sift out.    Melvin Bullitt: A free agent if four years qualifies players for the open market, he’s a steady player who would have appeal elsewhere based on how thin the safety position is around the league.    Pierre Garcon: The wide receiver is a crucial part of the offense. I don’t know if he’s ultimately the successor to Reggie Wayne as the team’s No. 1 guy. But with no new receiver added, Garcon’s speed puts him in a position to continue to establish himself. He needs to be more consistent, particularly with catching the ball reliably in big spots.  http://bleacherreport.com/tb/b9lwC

 What wasn’t addressed in the draft and could be a free-agency focus for the Colts:  Safety: Melvin Bullitt may wind up a retainable restricted free agent. Even if they can keep him, safety is a thin spot that needs depth. Because the position is thin around the league, if Bullitt does become a free agent, he’ll be attractive to a lot of teams. The Colts have a glue guy in Antoine Bethea at free safety, but need a strong safety option. Receiver: They’ve got a solid group here with Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon, Anthony Gonzalez and even Blair White. But there are injury concerns with Collie and Gonzalez, and although the guys beyond Wayne can all be major contributors, none of them will be a clear-cut No. 1 option for the team when Wayne starts to slow. Perhaps they don’t have to worry about it for another year, but it’d be nice to have that guy in house. Kicker: Adam Vinatieri is a free agent under any scenario. It makes sense to re-sign a reliable, clutch guy even if long-distance range may be a question. But if someone else makes him a big offer, the Colts will be in need. http://espn.go.com/blog/afcsouth/post/_/id/23677/remaining-work-indianapolis-colts&ex_cid=MyESPNToday_Team  

When seton hall and steelers notified me that he'd be doing this series and if it could potentially be front-page material, I couldn't resist. God knows I wasn't going to do this kind of exercise. It is certainly super time consuming -- but you know me, that doesn't scare me. But it's also a dangerous exercise because it's just so subjective at this point. Still, the young'n has worked so hard on analyzing this year's draft, hard to say no, and after perusing, there's plenty of solid assessments. So, many thanks to him once again, and from the looks of it, you can expect us to get to the remaining divisions in the forthcoming days now that we've gotten the mammoth undertaking to a place that's aesthetically consumable for you all. -Michael B. -

The dust is beginning to settle on the 2011 NFL Draft, which for me only means time is ticking for me to go about giving initial grades to each and every pick, as well as all 32 teams. These grades will be revisited around this time next year. The AFC North and East was done here. First, a word on my subjective evaluation process once more. The basic grading rules are...

Individual Player Grades

A+: Designated for players that provide incredible value at a position of need, and have Pro Bowl potential

A: Designated for player that provide great value at a position of need, OR for players that provide  incredible value at a position that is not a huge need

B: Designated for players that provide good value at a position of need, OR for players that provide great value that is not a position of need

C: Designated for players player that provide good value at a minor need, OR for players that provide great value at no need, OR for players with clearly identifiable potential at a position of future need

D: Designated for players that provide decent value at a position of no need, OR for players that fall short in addressing positions of need, OR for solid players that were taken significantly earlier than their talent suggested they would be.

F: Designated for player that provide no value at positions where there's no immediate need, OR for players that most agree are a huge reach at a position of need, OR a player that has no means being in the draft.

Al Davis: A player with great speed that is over-drafted by 1 to 2 rounds (usually would grade out to a C)

Note: In the 6th round the lowest grade you can get is a D. In the 7th round regular picks, the lowest grade you can get is a D+. In the 7th round compensatory picks the lowest grade you can get is a C-

 

Team Grades:

A: A team filled all/most of their needs without reaching at any pick and got one or more steals

B: A team filled most/all of their needs but reached on some of their picks and failed to get a major steal

C: A team did not fill most of their needs or reached to fill those needs with less than two major steals

D: A team filled none or very few of their needs and reached to do those and failed to draft good players at non needs

F: A team filled no needs, reached for players, picked bad scheme fits, and traded away future picks.

Even though it goes without saying....As we all know, grading a draft immediately after it is mostly useless so this is just speculation on my part.

Without further ado, let's get to the individual and team grades for the AFC South and AFC West

AFC South

Tennessee Titans

2010 Record: 6-10

Round 1, Pick 8: Jake Locker

Grade: C+   This is a questionable pick but not as bad as some people are saying. There were rumors before the draft that the Titans liked Locker more than Gabbert so I was not that surprised. However, this pick could look really bad down the road.

Round 2, Pick 7: Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA

Grade: A-   Ayers was a 1st round player that fell because of a bad workout. I think this was really good value and filled a big need at OLB. Ayers has big potential.

Round 3, Pick 13: Jurrell Casey, DT, USC

Grade: A-    Casey was a 3rd round prospect so this is solid value and fills a big need. Casey should be able to contribute right away.

Round 4 Pick 12: Colin McCarthy, ILB/OLB, Miami

Grade: A-     Another solid pick to add to their defense. McCarthy has a lot of versatility and is good value in the 4th.

Round 4, Pick 33: Jamie Harper, RB, Clemson

Grade: D     I don't get this pick. There were much better RB's on the board and RB was not a big need at all. They needed a guard to help the interior running game.

Round 5, Pick 11: Karl Klug, DT/DE, Iowa

Grade: B-    This is a very solid pick. Klug could be a rotational DL for a long time. Will probably never start but can play multiple positions and adds a pass rush.

Round 6, Pick 10: Byron Stingly, OT, Louisville

Grade: C+    Stingly was not a bad pick but better OT's and OG's were available.

Round 7, Pick 9: Zach Clayton, DT, Auburn

Grade: B+     Clayton is a solid 7th round pickup who had two years of good production. Like Klug, he should be a rotational DL for the Titans.

Round 7, Pick 50: Tommie Campbell, CB, California (PA)

Grade: B-    Campbell has nickel potential and can stick because of his special teams play. Solid late round pickup.

Team Grade: B   

They failed to find any interior OL but they did not reach on any picks (except Locker) and filled up their front 7 with very talented players.

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Houston Texans

2010 Record: 6-10

Round 1, Pick 11: J.J. Watt, DE/DT, Wisconsin

Grade: A-    Watt is a proto-typical 3-4 DE and should help the transition to a 3-4. He can be a starter immediately.

Round 2, Pick 10: Brooks Reed, OLB, Arizona

Grade: A-    Reed at the 10th pick of the 2nd round is good value. I don't think he was a 1st round prospect so this was a good spot for him. Will be a very good 3-4 OLB.

Round 2, Pick 27: Brandon Harris, CB, Miami

Grade: A    Harris was considered a late 1st to early 2nd round pick so this is a big steal. He could play #2 or nickel corner and maybe be a #1 down the line.

Round 4, Pick 30: Rashad Carmichael, CB, Virginia Tech

Grade: B    Should be a dime or nickel corner and a great special teamer. Solid value here.

Round 5, Pick 13: Shiloh Keo, SS, Idaho

Grade: B+     Strong value and a player that could be a backup SS and a very good special teamer.

Round 5, Pick 21: T.J. Yates, QB, UNC

Grade: B    A good developmental QB to backup Matt Schaub.

Round 7, Pick 11: Derek Newton, OT, Arkansas State

Grade: A-     A good developmental OT to backup both spots. Has potential to start down the line.

Round 7, Pick 53: Cheta Ozougwu, DE/OLB, Rice

Grade: A-     Another 3-4 piece. Will probably be a backup LB and special teams player.

Team Grade: A-    

The Texans did not add a WR but they still got a ton of great pieces for their defense. Very good job by the Texans and they just might make the playoffs this year.

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Jacksonville Jaguars

2010 Record: 8-8

Round 1, Pick 10: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri

Grade: A-  The Jags decided to trade up and get their QB of the future. I liked the trade up and I liked the pick. While I think Gabbert is extremely over-rated (put up worse stats with better weapons than Chase Daniels did and Daniels went undrafted) he certainly fits the range.

Round 3, Pick 12: Will Rackley, OT/OG, Leigh

Grade: A    This was perhaps their best pick of the draft. Rackley was a 2nd round prospect by most so this is great value. Plus it fills a big need on the OL. Great pickup.

Round 4, Pick 17: Cecil Shorts, III, WR, Mount Union

Grade: A-     Shorts reminds people of Pierre Garcon, but I think he is more explosive than Garcon and more polished receiver. Will be a very good slot receiver.

Round 4, Pick 24: Chris Prosinski, S, Wyoming

Grade: F   The 1st of 2 straight picks that got me laughing. Prosinski was not even on my board and he was outside the top 500 on Scouts Inc. Safety was a need but why not take one of the people that actually were supposed to get drafted.

Round 5, Pick 16: Rod Isaac, DB, Middle Tennessee State

Grade: F   Another player not in the top 500 of the Scouts Inc board. Tons of talent at the corner position available and they take Isaac, who is small and not that fast.

Team Grade: B  

The Jags did a great job with their first three picks but failed epically with their last two selections. However, they did manage to find a QB of the future, a great OL, and a good WR. Getting three impact players in one draft makes this a solid draft.

 

Indianapolis Colts

2010 Record: 10-6

Round 1, Pick 22: Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College

Grade: A    I have mocked Castonzo to the Colts for 2 months now. He is a perfect fit and fills their biggest need at LT. Castonzo excels in pass blocking and has started over 40 straight games at Boston College.

Round 2, Pick 17: Ben Ijalana, OT/OG, Villanova

Grade: A   Trading up 5 spots to ensure they got Ijalana was a great move. Ijalana was my highest rated non D-1 prospect and fills a big need at RT.

Round 3, Pick 23: Drake Nevis, DT, LSU

Grade: A-     I have mocked Nevis to the Colts multiple times over the past 3 months. He fills a need at DT and fits their scheme as an undersized, quicker tackle. Also fits the range in the 3rd round.

Round 4, Pick 22: Delone Carter, RB, Syracuse

Grade: B     Carter is a downhill runner that has decent hands. He is good in blitz protection so he can help the pass blocking of the Colts. Good value and this was a minor need.

Round 6, Pick 23: Chris L. Rucker, CB/FS, Michigan State

Grade: B+     Rucker has a lot of talent but has never put it all together at Michigan State. I had him as a 6th round prospect so it fits the range and fills a need. Good pickup and could be great if they get Rucker to work hard.

Team Grade: A-   

The Colts did a great job getting value with each of their picks and filled their biggest need at both tackle spots. They could have taken a WR but I don't think it was a big need. If Rucker max's out his potential, this becomes an A.

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AFC West

Denver Broncos

2010 Record: 4-12

Round 1, Pick 2: Von Miller, DE/OLB, Texas A&M

Grade: B+    Apparently the Broncos want to have the league's worst run defense again. Despite passing on Dareus, this is still a very good pick. Miller is versatile, and all though he is better fit for a 3-4, he can still play in a 4-3 adequately. I don't know how he will be used but if used properly it is a good pick.

Round 2, Pick 13: Rahim Moore, FS, UCLA

Grade: A    This is who I had them take at the 4th pick of the 2nd round so trading down and still getting him is great. Moore was the best safety in this draft and fills a big need.

Round 2, Pick 14: Orlando Franklin, OT/OG, Miami

Grade: B-    This pick I don't get as much. Paea and Austin were still on the board but they took a late 2nd to mid 3rd round prospect at a position that was not a need. Generous on the grading because Franklin has great potential.

Round 3, Pick 3: Nate Irving, ILB, N.C. State

Grade: B     Irving is a quality LB but I don't know how he will be used. They have now taken two LB's within their first 4 picks.

Round 4, Pick 11: Quinton Carter, FS, Oklahoma

Grade: B    Carter is another quality player but they already took a FS in the 2nd round. Broncos fans tell me he can play SS in Fox' scheme which keeps this as a B (despite my skepticism)

Round 4, Pick 32: Julius Thomas, TE, Portland State

Grade: B   Thomas has a lot of upside but needs to be developed. Is a big project that could turn into a steal.

Round 6, Pick 24: Mike Mohammed, ILB, California

Grade: C+    Their 3rd LB picked but still no DT's. They are going to need a lot of LB's because teams are going to be running through their DL like swiss cheese.

Round 7, Pick 1: Virgil Green, TE, Nevada

Grade: A   Green was a 5th round prospect so this is a great pick. He is a bit of a project but definitely fills a need.

Round 7, Pick 46: Jeremy Beal, DE/OLB, Oklahoma

Grade: A   Another great 7th round pick. Beal was a 4th to 5th round prospect so this is a big steal. He should play DE in a 4-3 system.

Team Grade: B  

None of the picks by themselves were that bad as they got a bunch of talented players but they failed to address their biggest need, DT. Despite having a chance at Dareus in the 1st, Paea and Austin in the 2nd, they bypassed any DT's and instead took 3 LB's and two FS's. Seems like overkill to me. I also don't get taking two TE's but you can't deny that they were both solid value picks.

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San Diego Chargers

2010 Record:9-7

Round 1, Pick 18: Corey Liuget, DE/DT, Illinois

Grade: B   This pick is decent value and fills a need but the big question is where Liuget fits into a 3-4. If he can play 3-4 DE this is a great pick. If he can't this is a really bad pick.

Round 2, Pick 18: Marchus Gilchrist, CB, Clemson

Grade: F  This was the first of two straight hilarious picks. Gilchrist was a 5th round prospect and did not fill a big need.

Round 2, Pick 29: Jonas Mouton, OLB, Michigan

Grade: F-   Let the laughing/head scratching continue. Mouton fills a need at OLB but he was a 6th to 7th round prospect. I thought about giving this a Z but decided to be generous. The Chargers made my day on Friday with these two picks.

Round 3, Pick 18: Vincent Brown, WR, San Diego State

Grade: B-   Brown was a 4th round pick on my board and is not a bad pick. He had a bad combine but fills a minor need at WR.

Round 3, Pick 25: Shareece Wright, CB, USC

Grade: B-    They got a better corner in round 3 than they did in round 2. I don't think they needed 2 CB's but this is not a bad pick.

Round 6, Pick 18: Jordan Todman, RB, Connecticut

Grade: A   This was their first great pick of the draft. Todman can replace Sproles and is potentially a #1 back. Was a 3rd round prospect in my board so great value.

Round 6, Pick 36: Steve Schilling, OG, Michigan

Grade: A-    This is another very good pick. Schilling was a 5th to 6th round prospect and fills a minor need at OG.

Round 7, Pick 33: Andrew Gachakar, OLB/ST, Missouri

Grade: B-    Gachakar was supposed to go un-drafted but can make an impact on ST. Good pick.

Team Grade: C  

The Chargers draft was filled with reaches early, reaching on 3 of their 1st 4 picks. It gave me some great laughs as well. However, they did manage to finds some great late round picks and if Liuget pans out this could be a B.

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Kansas City Chiefs

2010 Record: 10-6

Round 1, Pick 26: Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh

Grade: B   Baldwin fills a huge need at WR2 and was decent value. They traded down from 21 and still got him. Good pick.

Round 2, Pick 23: Rodney Hudson, OG/OC, Florida State

Grade: A-   Hudson is a bit undersized as a guard but still has a lot of potential and could also play C. Good value as well.

Round 3, Pick 6: Justin Houston, DE/OLB, Georgia

Grade: A  Houston was a late first round pick IMO and fell because of a failed drug test. However, at the top of the 3rd he is too good to pass up.

Round 3, Pick 22: Allen Bailey, DE/DT, Miami

Grade: A-     This is good value for Bailey and fills a minor need at DE.

Round 4, Pick 21: Jalil Brown, CB, Colorado

Grade: B   Brown is a good talent and fills a very minor need at CB. He was a 4th round prospect on my board so this is good value.

Round 5, Pick 4: Ricky Stanzi, QB, Iowa

Grade: A    Stanzi was a 3rd to 4th round prospect so this is great value. He is going to spend a year or two developing behind Cassel and should be able to replace him within 3 years.

Round 5, Pick 9: Gabe Miller, DE, Oregon State

Grade: D-    This was the only questionable pick of their draft. I did not have Miller being drafted so it is a reach and does not fill a need. Could have been an A+ draft without this.

Round 6, Pick 34: Jerrell Powe, NT, Ole Miss

Grade: A    Another great selection by the Chiefs. Powe was a 3rd round prospect on my board so this is a big steal and fills their biggest need.

Round 7, Pick 22: Shane Bannon, FB, Yale

Grade: B-    Bannon can be a nice lead blocker for Charles/Jones.

 

Team Grade: A  

The Chiefs put together arguably the best draft in the league. They got good value with every pick (except Miller) and filled their biggest needs. Great job.

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Oakland Raiders

2010 Record: 8-8

Round 2, Pick 16: Stefen Wisniewski, OG/OC, Penn State

Grade: A-   Wisniewski was mocked by a lot of people to the Raiders. He fills a huge need at the interior OL and was good value. A great start to the draft for the Raiders.

Round 3, Pick 17: Demarcus Van Dyke, CB, Miami

Grade: Al Davis/D+    Al Davis showed up late today but still got in before round 3 was over. Van Dyke was a 4th to 5th round pick on my board and not shockingly, he ran the fastest 40 time of any corner.

Round 3, Pick 28: Joseph Barksdale, OT, LSU

Grade: B    Al Davis showed up late and left early which allowed the Raiders to find a nice developmental tackle in Barksdale. He could become a very good RT or maybe even a LT in the future.

Round 4, Pick 16: Chimdi Chekwa, CB, Ohio State

Grade: Al Davis/C+   Al made sure to show up on time for round 4. Chekwa has incredible speed (shocker) and has some decent skills. He needs to develop a lot of his coverage skills but could be very good down the line.

Round 4, Pick 28: Taiwan Jones, RB, Eastern Washington

Grade: Al Davis/B     Jones is good value here and fills a small need at RB. However, he is not really a could complement to McFadden. Also, he ran the fastest 40 time of any RB in the draft.

Round 5, Pick 17: Denarius Moore, WR, Tennessee

Grade: B+     Moore is a talented WR that fills a need and fits the range. Good pick that was made while Al was out to lunch.

Round 6, Pick 16: Richard Gordan, TE, Miami

Grade: C+    Gordan is a good blocking TE and is a good backup to Zach Miller.

Round 7, Pick 40: David Ausberry, WR/TE, USC

Grade: Al Davis/C     Al got back from lunch and took an incredibly athletic WR/TE combo that could play either in the NFL.

Team Grade: C  

Despite making many Al Davis type picks, they did not do a bad job in this draft. They took two very talented OL prospects, got two talented corners with lots of upside. got two tight end prospects that could help the offense and got a RB and WR to try and help the offense.

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That ends part 2 of our 2011 'NFL Draft Grades' series. Part 3 will be out tomorrow or Thrusday.

Celebrities such as Shannon Elizabeth and Michael Clarke Duncan and sports stars Pierre Garcon, Jonathan Vilma, James Ihedigho, Lamaar Woodley and Leigh Bodden are among the many notables going to Punta Cana, Dominican Republic, April 29 – May 1st for the first ever “Legends Weekend: Celebrities for Charity.”

This gala fundraiser at the exclusive Hard Rock Hotel and Casino will raise much needed money to build a hospital and school in devastated Haiti.

For three event-filled days, there will be a celebrity baseball game, golf tournament, as well as a beach concert featuring Fabulous Fat Joe. The hallmark event is a celebrity poker game pitting the numerous stars in attendance against “The Average Joe.”

Included among the gamblers are World Poker Champion Phil Hellmuth, noted card shark Beth Shak and top online player Prahlad Friedman. The poker game will be hosted by Demarco Morgan.

The money raised is going to five charities, all working in concert to build the necessary facilities in Haiti. They are: Hope for Haiti, Global Syndicate, Perre Garcon Foundation, Helping Hands Foundation and Jonathan Vilma Foundation.

Hard Rock Hotel & Casino, Punta Cana, is the gracious host for this one-of-a-kind event. The hotel is one of the most luxurious resorts in the Caribbean with one of the most popular casinos in the Dominican Republic. The rooms, all suites with balconies, are elegantly-appointed and overlook 12 expansive swimming pools. In addition to several haute cuisine restaurants and bustling bars, the hotel is going to open on Saturday, April 30th the nightclub Moon Bar.

You can also ride in style with your favorite celebrity!! “Legends Weekend: Celebrities for Charity” is offering a special deal for $5,000 person that allows you to fly down on a private jet with all the stars and pro sports players attending in addition to deluxe hotel accommodations and all the fun-filled events.

Tickets for the weekend are $1680 per person – that includes a suite at the hotel, airfare and admission for all the events. For further information go to www.pokerdr.org.

Related past articles

• Celebrities To Play Charity Poker In LA This Weekend
• Jim Carrey And Jenny McCarthy Host Saturday Night Charity Spectacular
• Jennifer Tilly Hosts All-Star Charity Poker
• Star Power At Evening of Electric Youth
• Kim Kardashian Hosts Charity Poker In The Playboy Mansion

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According to Brett Mock of the Colts blog Coltzilla one guy that the team has shown a lot of interest in, and have a legitimate shot of landing in the second round is former University of Miami star Leonard Hankerson. “Hankerson should remind a lot of Colts fans of Pierre Garcon. His college career showed that while he had inconsistent hands from time-to-time, he also had a propensity to make spectacular one-handed grabs and highlight reel receptions. He will also remind of Reggie Wayne in that he is a Miami product, uses his size to his advantage (Wayne plays big), and is a true wideout. If he falls to the Colts in the second round he would cause the draft room to have a serious discussion.” He also has a very good chance of being available when the Colts pick at No. 53. In many mock drafts he has been getting picked up anywhere from 40-70. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/661934-nfl-draft-2011-latest-indianapolis-colts-rumors-news-and-speculation/entry/62146-nfl-draft-2011-is-leonard-hankerson-a-legitimate-possibility-for-the-colts

NFL Draft 2011 Might Bring Leonard Hankerson to the Indianapolis Colts

One need that has been greatly debated among various experts is the Colts need for a wide receiver.

For various injury and skill-related reasons the Colts are actually very thing at the receiver position and their best pass-catcher, Reggie Wayne, is getting a little long in the tooth. It seems like this would be a good year to strike the iron while it is hot.

According to Brett Mock of the Colts blog Coltzilla one guy that the team has shown a lot of interest in, and have a legitimate shot of landing in the second round is former University of Miami star Leonard Hankerson.

“Hankerson should remind a lot of Colts fans of Pierre Garcon. His college career showed that while he had inconsistent hands from time-to-time, he also had a propensity to make spectacular one-handed grabs and highlight reel receptions. He will also remind of Reggie Wayne in that he is a Miami product, uses his size to his advantage (Wayne plays big), and is a true wideout. If he falls to the Colts in the second round he would cause the draft room to have a serious discussion.”

He also has a very good chance of being available when the Colts pick at No. 53. In many mock drafts he has been getting picked up anywhere from 40-70.

Editor's Note: Brad Wells (BigBlueShoe) and Matt Grecco (mgrex03) compiled two articles into one here with some parts written by BBS and others by Matt.

Last week, ESPN's Paul Kuharsky published a pretty cool article about rating previous Colts drafts. What made the article particularly interesting were the quotes he got from Colts vice chairman Bill Polian and Titans GM Mike Reinfeldt.

Polian, discussing what equals 'success' in a draft:

"I think you have to divide it into top 12 and bottom 20. If you’re in the top 12, it ought to be in the .640 range. That’s about 4.5 guys on average per year out of the seven. You measure that at the end of three years and what you are measuring is whether or not those guys become winning players, guys that contribute to wins. Bottom 20 is .571, that’s four out of seven…

Reinfeldt:

"If you look historically, teams get 2.3 starters per draft and as a team, I think you need to strive to get three starters per draft, or I should say players worthy of starting. Is Jared Cook a starter? Not really but he’s good enough to be a starter in certain situations. Are Alterraun Verner and Jason McCourty? Well, in the right situation, probably."

...

"The hit becomes a little bit easier to define there," he said. "A guy could be a good role player there and be a hit [based on where he was taken]."

Reinfeldt's measurement of success offers some of the best, most articulate parameters we've ever heard. Both he and Polian offer great insight in this article. While we don't agree with all of their opinions on what is 'successful,' it is refreshing to read stuff like this.

Like the Titans, the Colts refuse to sign veterans free agents. Thus, emphasis on the draft is heightened substantially. Miss on a draft, or fail to gain three worthy starters after three years, and the domino effect on the roster will have consequences in the win-loss column.

Probably the best quote in the whole article comes from Polian when discussing missing on players [emphasis ours]:

"Do you judge yourself harshly? The answer is yes. The guy either is a winning player or he’s not."

It's this kind of thinking that has had people like us to judge the recent drafts of the Colts so harshly. The NFL is a bottom line business, and when a player is taken, he either a 'winning player' or he isn't. And the guy who took that player is ultimately responsible for that guy failing, or gets a lion's share of the credit if he succeeds. Fair or unfair.

One cannot take credit for drafting Peyton Manning without taking criticism for trading for, and then drafting, Tony Ugoh. Same holds true for the guy who took Chris Johnson, but two years prior wasted a first round pick on Vince Young.

With the Colts, Kuharsky added to his article a grading system for the 2006, 2007, and 2008 drafts. He rated 2006 very highly (five of seven players drafted were 'hits' for a 71% success rate) while the 2007 draft was an unmitigated disaster (4.5 of eleven were 'hits' with a 40% success rate).

This article by Paul was very fun to read, but it got Stampede Blue thinking: Paul's system for ranking is a bit simple. Let's expand it! Let's apply a number grade (1-10) for Colts drafts from 2002-2009 and see how the numbers play out.

The results are pretty interesting.

All of the numbers you'll see are completely subjective, determined by BBS and Matt. People will obviously disagree with some of the individual assessments, both on expectation and result. Our goal wasn't to try and single out "busts", or give guys we liked more credit, etc. We wanted the macro-view of the year-to-year results, and truly get a feel of how the Colts front office has done since 2002.

In the tables you'll see each draft pick, along with the expectation and results from both BBS and Matt. We thought the first round had a widely varying expectation, as the talent level drops exponentially (generally speaking) as the round goes down. For example, Anthony Gonzalez at #32 has a 7 out of 10 expectation, while Dwight Freeney, taken at #11, has a 9 out of 10 (at least for me). The second round has two different levels, then it flattens off as you get later in the draft. We tried to keep it as consistent as possible.

Let's get to the numbers, and how we feel the Colts have done in the draft since 2002...

2002 BBS mgrex03 Rd Pick Player Expect Result Expect Result 1 11  Dwight Freeney 8 10 9 10 2 42  Larry Tripplett 6 4 6 4 3 74  Joseph Jefferson 3 2 4 2 4 106  David Thornton 3 6 3 6 6 182  David Pugh 2 0 2 0 6 204  Brian Allen 2 0 2 0 7 220  Josh Mallard 1 1 1 1 Total 25 23 27 23	2003 BBS mgrex03 Rd Pick Player Expect Result Expect Result 1 24  Dallas Clark 7 10 7 10 2 58  Mike Doss 6 4 5 4 3 90  Donald Strickland 3 2 3 3 4 122  Steve Scuillio 3 2 3 1 5 138  Robert Mathis 3 10 3 10 5 162  Kenyon Whiteside 3 0 3 0 6 198  Cato June 2 6 2 7 6 208  Makoa Freitas 2 2 2 1 Total 29 36 28 36
2004 BBS mgrex03 Rd Pick Player Expect Result Expect Result 2 44  Bob Sanders 6 10 6 9 3 68  Ben Harstock 3 2 4 2 3 69  Gilbert Gardner 3 1 4 2 4 107  Kendyll Pope 3 1 3 1 4 125  Jason David 3 5 3 6 5 141  Jake Scott 3 5 3 7 6 173  Von Hutchins 2 1 2 1 6 193  Jim Sorgi 2 2 2 2 7 229  David Kimball 1 1 1 1 Total 26 28 28 31	2005 BBS mgrex03 Rd Pick Player Expect Result Expect Result 1 29  Marlin Jackson 7 7 7 7 2 60  Kelvin Hayden 6 7 5 7 3 92  Vincent Burns 3 0 3 0 4 129  Dylan Gandy 3 3 3 3 4 135  Matt Giordano 3 3 3 4 5 148  Jonathan Welsh 3 1 3 1 5 165  Robert Hunt 3 0 3 0 5 173  Tyjuan Hagler 3 5 3 5 6 202  David Rayner 2 0 2 0 7 243  Anthony Davis 1 1 1 1 Total 34 27 33 28
2006 BBS mgrex03 Rd Pick Player Expect Result Expect Result 1 30  Joseph Addai 7 8 7 8 2 60  Tim Jennings 6 5 5 4 3 94  Freddy Keiaho 3 3 3 4 5 162  Michael Toudouze 3 2 3 2 6 199  Charlie Johnson 3 6 2 7 6 207  Antoine Bethea 3 10 2 10 7 238  T.J. Rushing 1 1 1 1 Total 26 35 23 36	2007 BBS mgrex03 Rd Pick Player Expect Result Expect Result 1 32  Anthony Gonzalez 7 4 7 5 1 29  Tony Ugoh 8 2 8 2 3 95  Dante Hughes 3 2 3 2 3 98  Quinn Pitcock 3 1 3 1 4 131  Brannon Condren 3 2 3 2 4 136  Clint Session 3 5 3 6 5 169  Roy Hall 3 0 3 0 5 173  Michael Coe 3 0 3 0 7 242  Keyunta Dawson 1 1 1 1 Total 34 17 34 19
2008 BBS mgrex03 Rd Pick Player Expect Result Expect Result 2 59  Mike Pollak 6 2 5 2 3 93  Philip Wheeler 3 1 3 2 4 127  Jacob Tamme 3 4 3 4 5 161  Marcus Howard 3 0 3 0 6 196  Tom Santi 2 1 2 1 6 201  Steve Justice 2 0 2 0 6 202  Mike Hart 2 4 2 4 6 205  Pierre Garcon 2 5 2 5 7 236  Jamey Richard 1 1 1 1 Total 24 18 23 19	2009 BBS mgrex03 Rd Pick Player Expect Result Expect Result 1 27  Donald Brown 7 2 7 2 2 56  Fili Moala 6 4 5 3 3 92  Jerraud Powers 3 5 3 6 4 127  Austin Collie 3 5 3 7 4 136  Terrance Taylor 3 0 3 0 6 201  Curtis Painter 2 2 2 1 7 222  Pat McAfee 1 5 1 4 7 236  Jaimie Thomas 1 1 1 1 Total 26 24 25 24

Here's a year-by-year summary for easy viewing, with both of our numbers added together:

 

Year	Expect	Result	Percent	Starters
2002	52	46	0.885	2.5
2003	57	72	1.263	3.5
2004	54	59	1.093	3
2005	67	55	0.821	3
2006	49	71	1.449	5
2007	68	36	0.529	1.5
2008	47	37	0.787	1.5
2009	51	48	0.941	3.5

 

Some of my thoughts on what we found:

• The far and away winner is 2006, with an unbelievable 45% above expected return, and 5 starters for the team (if you count Tim Jennings). While we don't have the time or the knowledge to go through each team and rank them the same way, I'd put the Colts 2006 draft up against any of them over the past 10 years, it was that good.
• How could the same people kick that much ass in 2006, then shit the bed so bad in 2007? Super Bowl Hangover? Either way, 2007 was dreadful, barely getting half production. We know that Ugoh was taken in the second round, but he was traded for a first round pick, and was expected to play LT for 10 years, hence the expectation he was given. Two players out of nine drafted is not good, and certainly seems to be an exception, rather than the norm.
• Both 2003 and 2004 were above average drafts, and I'd consider 2003 a "great" draft, as it was the only one with two "10"s in Dallas Clark and Robert Mathis. 2004 saw each player drafted contribute something, with Bob Sanders being the cream of the crop.
• All the others we'd consider "below expectation", with 2009 being the closest to expectation, and obviously can improve after a couple more years. 2008 was pretty "meh", with no clear superstars, and a guy in Jacob Tamme who probably would have only gotten a 1 or 2 had Dallas Clark not been injured.

After a brief respite from late-round WR types in the form of Louisville running back Bilal Powell, we return to said category with a look at wide receiver Cecil Shorts who, like the aforementioned WRs, enjoyed tremendous success at a lower level of competition - Division III Mount Union. Last season, Shorts grabbed 63 passes for 1,106 yards (his third straight 1,000 yard campaign) and a whopping 17 touchdowns, running for one score, returning two punts for touchdowns and another kickoff return for a score - all after missing the first three games with an ankle injury.

2010's production was typical of his superb college career: Shorts played in 55 games at Mount Union, accumulating 259 receptions for 4,705 yards and 63 (!) touchdowns. In addition, he had 75 rushing attempts for 492 yards with 12 TDs as well as two punt returns and a kickoff return for touchdowns. In total, he accounted for nearly 6,000 all-purpose yards.

If Shorts is going to make the leap to the NFL, it will be largely because of his blinding speed. He was an All-American selection in track and field; this was evident at his pro day, where he posted a 4.35 on wet artificial turf. This followed up a Combine where he had posted disappointing forty times, but stood out in all the other position drills.

More impressive was the way Shorts conducted himself in front of NFL teams. Eric DeCosta, the Ravens Director of Player Personnel, reportedly was so taken by Shorts' personal interview that he was moved to tweet: "Great interview with Cecil Shorts of Mount Union last night. He was a two-way performer, [receiver] and [cornerback], for Mount Union in their D-III National Championship game this year."

Its not just Baltimore that finds Shorts interesting. According to sources in the know, Shorts has 10 upcoming private workouts or visits scheduled.  

After the jump, we'll take a peek at why so many teams want to get to know him...

National Football Post (Wes Bunting) 30th-rated WR; 259th overall

Possesses adequate size for the position, but might be a bit thin-framed through the lower half. However, is a gifted athlete who possesses good balance and body control in all areas of the game. Never looks to be straining himself when trying to get up to speed quickly. Is effortless with the ball in his hands and accelerates extremely quickly once he finds a second gear. Consistently keeps his feet under him, is balanced when asked to make a defender miss and then generates good explosion when looking to separate. Also displays impressive instincts as a runner when asked to run between the tackles, does a nice job lowering his pad level, allowing blocks to set up and then exploding toward daylight. Makes everything look so easy.

Possesses good body control and awareness when asked to locate and adjust to the throw, keeping his feet in bounds and seems to know where he is at on the field at all times. Showcases a good gear tracking the football vertically down the field and seems to just find the second gear whenever he needs it. Is a bit inconsistent plucking the football, at times will violently go up and rip down the catch in traffic and at other times will let throws go into his body over the middle.

Will have an adjustment period learning how to beat press coverage at the next level, but the guy has great quickness in tight areas and displays the kind of balance that makes me think it won't be too difficult for him. Possesses good balance as a route runner as well, will drift into his breaks a bit, but his combination of fluidity, balance and initial explosion will allow him to run just about every route needed at the next level. Battled some ankle injuries as a senior, but should be healthy for the postseason. Also, came to Mount Union as a quarterback and can throw the football when need be; took some snaps from center this year.

Impression: It's a huge learning curve for Shorts, but the guy is a gifted athlete with impressive fluidity and has a second gear that's impressive down the field. The guy can certainly play in the NFL and contribute, and if put in the right situation could have a similar NFL career as former Mount Union great Pierre Garcon.

Pro Football Weekly (Nolan Nawrocki) 14th-rated WR; 90th overall

Positives: Good size, hands and body control. Moves smoothly and efficiently. Has loose hips and gets in and out of breaks cleanly. Runs routes with pace and tempo-sets up defenders and separates (rarely challenged at D-III level). Catches in stride. Versatile-has returned kicks and can be used as a "Wildcat" quarterback. Terrific four-year production. Excellent personal and football character-cares about the game and puts in the time to improve.

Negatives: Short arms. Average speed. Susceptible to the jam and can be bumped off course. Limited horsepower and gear change-builds up, is not a burner and is not sudden or explosive. Average creativity, elusiveness and vision after the catch. Fumbled nine times in his career. Needs to get stronger, and durability could be an issue-was dinged up as a freshman and as a senior. Unable to compete against better competition in an all-star game.

Summary: Smooth, football-smart, highly productive small-schooler who broke Pierre Garcon's records. Has more than enough athletic ability to be a No. 3 or No. 4 receiver, but the jump from Division III to the NFL is great and he will have to adjust after physically dominating inferior competition for four years.

ESPN/ Scouts, Inc. (Gary Horton) 19th-rated WR; overall unknown (not in top 130)

Separation Skills: Not a burner but does show enough speed to threaten vertically. He is silky smooth athlete who tempos his routes well and shows some savvy. Adequate burst out of break but not explosive. Only average suddenness in and out of cuts. Adequate initial burst off of the line but not quick enough to consistently beat the press with his feet. Will struggle against more physical NFL CB's until he improves his strength.

Ball Skills: He can do a better job of attacking the ball thrown over his shoulder on vertical routes. He shows very good ball skills otherwise. Displays very good body control and can adjust to poorly thrown ball. Shows focus and looks the ball in. Attacks the ball with his hands on short-to-intermediate routes and does not let it in to his pads very often. Has strong hands and is very reliable in this department.

Big play ability: Occasionally will get over the top of coverage vertically. Has enough speed to exploit a crease after the catch. Drops his weight and can change directions quickly after the catch, which he frequently uses to make the first defender miss. However, He lacks explosive burst after the catch and he doesn't show much elusiveness in space. He's more of a smooth glider. His top-end speed is only average and he's not tall enough to win many jump ball battles.

Competitiveness/ Toughness: Competitive and passionate about the game. Not afraid to go over the middle and will secure the ball when taking a hit. Plays hard. Willing blocker. Needs to improve his strength but effort is good, technique is adequate and he will work to get better as a stalk blocker.

Intangibles: Two-time team captain. All-American sprinter on Mount Union track and field team. Well respected by coaches and teammates. Hard worker with very good football intelligence and mental capacity. High school quarterback and coach's son. From same Division III program as Colts WR Pierre Garcon.

Although these evaluations are hardly unanimous, they do tend to rate Shorts as roughly the 20th-best WR in the draft (The Sporting News' Russ Lande tags him as the 21st-rated WR). Some of the principal questions concern his level of competition; on the other hand, there is a clear precedent: his predecessor at Mount Union, Pierre Garcon, made the adjustment to the NFL game with seeming ease.

Although he's a track guy, Shorts doesn't have the world-class speed of an Edmund Gates. As a result, I'll have to slot him a couple of rounds later. I'm going to place him in the sixth round, where the Cowboys currently hold pick # 176.

Next up: Jimmy Young, WR, TCU

  Bay Area Comcast Sports recently published a five-year study evaluating the best drafting teams of the last five years (2006-2010). The Indianapolis Colts were ranked the third best drafting team during this time period.  3. INDIANAPOLIS COLTSNumber of picks: 41Still on team: 28Starters: 9Best pick: S Antoine Bethea, 2006Worst pick: OT Tony Ugoh, 2007Overall: In the past five years, the Colts' first selections came at Nos. 31, 27, 59, 32 and 30. Yet, the Colts have done an admirable good job of adding talent and depth to a team that already had championship-caliber nucleus. The Colts have managed to achieve success in the sixth round, with the additions of two-time Pro Bowl safety Antoine Bethea, receiver Pierre Garcon and starting left tackle Charlie Johnson. Their lone early swing-and-miss was Ugoh, chosen No. 42 overall in 2007. He was cut before last season. This is a solid evaluation of the totality of drafts. Instead of pointing at some of the misses (Ugoh/DonBrown), it looks at every round. The Colts get more starters and contributors through the draft than the majority of NFL teams. This is especially impressive considering the Colts consistently draft in the bottom five picks of the draft.  The Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints ranked 1 and 2 respectively.  http://www.stampedeblue.com/2011/4/4/2090727/breaking-news-colts-are-the-3rd-best-drafting-team-in-nfl  

Name: WR Leonard Hankerson

School: Miami

Size: 6'2, 209 lbs

Expected Round: 2nd

40 Time: 4.40s

Career Stats: Click Here.

Player Previews: CBS; Walter Football; NFL Combine [If you would like your website included, please e-mail me!]

Strengths: Has quick straight line speed. Willing blocker in both the run and passing game. Big target who can complement many receivers. Willing to take a hit in the open field. Hankerson is able to make the big catch and can go up for the ball to pluck it out of the air. His NFL high is to be a player like Braylon Edwards.

Weaknesses: Not quick and doesn't play as fast as his 40 time. Has a terrible case of the dropsies. Not very explosive off the snap and he doesn't force deep coverage with his game speed. He's got the chance to be more of a Pierre Garcon- not the worst, but better off on the bench.

Why and Why Not the Patriots after the jump, and my final verdict!

Why the Patriots?: If the Patriots want a big target to spread the field, Hankerson might be that guy. While defenses won't be afraid of his speed on the field, he'll still be able to push defenses and keep them honest and away from the line. He's the most prolific receiver in Miami history, and that includes the likes of Andre Johnson and Michael Irvin. Now he won't be confused for them on the field, but the fact that his name is mentioned alongside theirs is a testament to his ability.

Why Not the Patriots?: If the Patriots want a player to spread the field, they already have Brandon Tate. There's no room for another project receiver with a low floor, especially with the case of the dropsies. With Taylor Price also in the wings, I don't see the Patriots' using another roster spot on a wide receiver.

Verdict: I'm not that thrilled about Hankerson as a prospect. Any player who struggles with drops will give everyone headaches and, in the NFL and with the Patriots, will find their way to the bench. The Patriots' offense runs on players doing their job and moving the chains. Dropping catchable balls are not goal congruent. Pass on Hankerson.

For the fifty-third pick in the second-annual Cincy Jungle Mock Draft, TheDealio selected is for the Indianapolis Colts, who have the standard three picks available.  Here is the pick...

With the fifty-third pick in the 2011 Cincy Jungle Mock Draft, the Indianapolis Colts select...

Titus Young, WR, Boise State

This may seem a curious pick for many users. Why do the Colts need another wide receiver? Don't they just take people off the streets and make them studs? Don't they have Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie and Anthony Gonzalez?

Well, yes, they do. But as Bill Polian I made this pick for a few reasons. Originally I wanted to go defense with this pick, preferably a safety or cornerback, but Rahim Morris, Brandon Harris, and Aaron Williams were all drafted 10-15 picks prior, and saw nobody that i didn't think I could get in the third round.

Secondly, Reggie Wayne will be a free agent at the end of the 2011-12 season and will be 33 years young in the middle of the season. They are also not sold that Garcon, Collie, or Gonzalez to fill that role of a #1. What they get in Young is a receiver that is a Desean Jackson type player that will stretch the field (as evidenced by him averaging 17.1 yards per catch his senior year) and be able to improve the Colts atrocious kick return averages (the colts averaged 19.6 yards per return, which was 28th in the NFL).

Lastly, this gives Peyton Manning another weapon and a new dimension in the Colts passing game. With this deep threat, this will open up running lanes for whomever will be carrying the rock, and hopefully get some of those safeties to stay back worrying that Young will get behind them. Let's take a look at this: TO, OchoCinco, Caldwell and Simpson all average more yards per catch on average that ANY of the Colts wide receivers (Reggie Wayne, he of 33 years old need I remind you, let the team at 12.2 yards/catch.)

All in all, this is a win now, keep Peyton stocked and loaded for now and the future move that we all know Polian loves to make. While this may not be what the Colts need the most, I see this being the pick Polian makes, with Colt nation rolling their eyes in a collective manner.

Titus Young Highlights:

 

Draft Overview:

#	Team	Picked By	Name/Positon of Pick
1	Carolina	James Shively	Nick Fairley / DT
2	Denver	sexsalad	Patrick Peterson / CB
3	Buffalo	Elguapo09	Von Miller / OLB
4	Cincinnati	Jason Garrison +2	A.J. Green / WR
5	Arizona	Broski	Da'Quan Bowers / DE
6	Cleveland	Joe Goodberry	Marcell Dareus / DL
7	San Francisco	Heybrown	Prince Amukamara / CB
8	Tennessee	Oxalis	Cam Newton / QB
9	Dallas	Jim0ijk	Robert Quinn / DE
10	Washington	Pardon_My_French	Blaine Gabbert / QB
11	Houston	Joe27	Julio Jones / WR
12	Minnesota	CarsonOrBust	Tyron Smith / OL
13	Detroit	The_Black_Stripes	Cameron Jordan / DL
14	St. Louis	Jaegner	Aldon Smith / DE
15	Miami	JaredM	Mark Ingram / RB
16	Jacksonville	Whodatchemsit	JJ Watt / DE
17	New England (from Oakland / Seymour)	UpStateMike	Anthony Castonzo / OT
18	San Diego	Quickslant	Mike Pouncey / OG
19	New York Giants	TheDealio	Akeem Ayers / OLB
20	Tampa Bay	Doc Scratch	Ryan Kerrigan / DE
21	Kansas City	Indesignkat	Corey Liuget / DT
22	Indianapolis	Ddbumpus	Nate Solder / OT
23	Philadelphia	Buckeyenut12	Gabe Carimi / OT
24	New Orleans	FriarBob	Cameron Heyward / DE
25	Seattle	IgnatiusJReilly	Jake Locker / QB
26	Baltimore	FriarBob	Adrian Clayborn / DE
27	Atlanta	TruWhoDey	Justin Houston / DE/OLB
28	New England	UpStateMike	Muhammad Wilkerson / DL
29	Chicago	Bsmith4256	Derek Sherrod / OL
30	New York Jets	Polo_614	Phil Taylor / DT
31	Pittsburgh	Jason Garrison	Jimmy Smith / CB
32	Green Bay	Sean Weaver	Stephen Paea / DL
33	New England (from Carolina / Armanti Edwards)	UpStateMike	Brooks Reed / OLB
34	Buffalo	Elguapo09	Allen Bailey / DE
35	Cincinnati	Jason Garrison +2	Christian Ponder / QB
36	Denver	sexsalad	Kyle Rudolph / TE
37	Cleveland	Jason Garrison	Torrey Smith / WR
38	Arizona	Broski	Rodney Hudson / OG
39	Tennessee	Oxalis	Marvin Austin / DT
40	Dallas	Jim0ijk	Danny Watkins / OG
41	Washington	Pardon_My_French	Jonathan Baldwin / WR
42	Houston	Joe27	Rahim Moore / FS
43	Minnesota	CarsonOrBust	Ryan Mallet / QB
44	Detroit	The_Black_Stripes	Stefen Wiesnewski / C/G
45	San Francisco	Heybrown	Andy Dalton / QB
46	Denver (from Miami / Brandon Marshall)	sexsalad	Drake Nevis / DT
47	St. Louis	Jaegner	Leonard Hankerson / WR
48	Oakland	NoodleXV	Brandon Harris / CB
49	Jacksonville	Whodatchemsit	Aaron Williams / S
50	San Diego	Quickslant	Jabaal Sheard / DE
51	Tampa Bay	Doc Scratch	Martez Wilson / MLB
52	New York Giants	TheDealio	Mikel Leshoure / RB
53	Indianapolis	Ddbumpus	Titus Young / WR
54	Philadelphia	Buckeyenut12
55	Kansas City	Indesignkat
56	New Orleans	FriarBob
57	Seattle	IgnatiusJReilly
58	Baltimore	Joe Goodberry
59	Atlanta	TruWhoDey
60	New England	UpStateMike
61	San Diego (from NYJets / Antonio Cromartie)	Quickslant
62	Chicago	Bsmith4256
63	Pittsburgh	FriarBob
64	Green Bay	Sean Weaver
65	Carolina	James Shively
66	Cincinnati	Jason Garrison +2
67	Denver	sexsalad
68	Buffalo	Elguapo09
69	Arizona	Broski
70	Cleveland	FriarBob
71	Dallas	Jim0ijk
72	New Orleans (from Washington / Jammal Brown)	FriarBob
73	Houston	Joe27
74	New England (from Minnesota / Randy Moss)	UpStateMike
75	Detroit	The_Black_Stripes
76	San Francisco	Heybrown
77	Tennessee	Oxalis
78	St. Louis	Jaegner
79	Miami	JaredM
80	Jacksonville	Whodatchemsit
81	Oakland	NoodleXV
82	San Diego	Quickslant
83	New York Giants	TheDealio
84	Tampa Bay	Doc Scratch
85	Philadelphia	Buckeyenut12
86	Kansas City	Indesignkat
87	Indianapolis	Ddbumpus
88	New Orleans	FriarBob
89	San Diego (from Seattle / Charlie Whitehurst)	Quickslant
90	Baltimore	Jason Garrison
91	Atlanta	TruWhoDey
92	New England	UpStateMike
93	Chicago	Bsmith4256
94	New York Jets	Polo_614
95	Pittsburgh	Joe Goodberry
96	Green Bay	Sean Weaver
97	Carolina (compensatory)	James Shively

Poll

Do you agree with this pick?

• Yes, I love it!
• Good player, but not what the team needs.
• Right Position (group), Wrong Player.
• No, I don't agree at all.
• Mmm... Donuts!

  0 votes | Results

The New England Patriots wrapped up the No. 1 seed in the AFC, the AFC East title and home field advantage throughout the postseason after their 34-3 romp over the Buffalo Bills on Sunday.  

The offense is firing on all cylinders behind stud Tom Brady, who is playing arguably the best football of his career, possibly even more impressive than his record setting 2007 campaign.  

While such accomplishments have become almost commonplace this time of year in Foxborough, this year's run seems almost more special than in past years. In fact, if it weren't for Brady's almost unmatchable performance so far this year, 2010 would be almost a precise replica of the team's first Super Bowl run of the decade against St. Louis.

No stars in the receiving corps or backfield and question marks heading into the season, to go along with an underrated but hard hitting, physical defense.   

However, this time around the record is much shinier at 13-2 with one contest left at home against Miami (where the Pats NEVER lose, it should be noted).  

Their success so far has many fans in New England and around the country thinking Super Bowl or bust already for this team.  

While it is not unreasonable to have such thoughts, there are some teams who pose threats to the Patriots hopes of taking home their fourth title since 2002.

I'm going to come out and say it now: The only teams that have the ability to knock off the Pats in the playoffs this year are the teams who are very familiar with them.

Don't expect teams such as the Steelers and Ravens to come into Foxborough in January and come out victorious, not with the way this offense is rolling. The Pats haven't struggled with Pittsburgh in the playoffs recently, having gone through them in Heinz field in two of their previous three Super Bowl runs.  

The Ravens were able to defeat the Patriots in the playoffs last season, but other than that game, the Pats are 14-2 against the AFC North in the regular season since the division was founded, specifically 6-0 versus the Ravens. They are 2-1 in the playoffs.

While these two teams do possess defenses capable of providing a challenge to Brady, they don't have the offense to keep up with a Patriots attack that is the highest scoring in the NFL.  

The added security of playing at home throughout the post season and a healthy Wes Welker, unlike last year, should only be helpful. 

 

1.  The New York Jets

The teams split their annual two game set this year, with the home team victorious both times.  

However, both Bill Belichick and Rex Ryan know each very other well and can throw formations at one another that can be largely successful.

Ryan proved this very fact during the first of the team's meetings, when his defense was able to fluster Brady and force turnovers. The Jets 28-14 victory was resounding, and the Patriots left the field battered after their lowest scoring performance of the season.

In New England, it was a completely different story. The Pats smashed the Jets to the tune of 45-3, dissolving any questions regarding Brady falling to Ryan's defense for a second time.  

The loss was embarrassing for New York, and they haven't forgotten it.

The talk of revenge is one reason the Jets could possibly knock off New England, but let's be honest. The Jets can talk it up all they want and do all the self motivating they need, but that isn't going to beat the Patriots.  

It never has and never will, at least not as long as the Brady-Belichick tandem exist.  

The reason the Jets could beat the Pats in a playoff environment is by executing their defense exactly as they did in Week 2. The way the Patriots offense is currently performing, this may be almost impossible, but you never know.  

Brady is only 2-2 versus Rex Ryan since the latter took the reigns in New York, and there is a reason for this number: Ryan knows what gets to Brady and his players execute.  

If they can pull a repeat performance from earlier in the year, then it could be a riveting playoff matchup. If not, they may be nothing more than just a J-E-S-T. 

2.  The Kansas City Chiefs

You won't find another team in the NFL more familiar with the Patriots and their system than the Kansas City Chiefs.  

There shouldn't be—half of the team has flocked there. 

Between coordinators Romeo Crennel and Charlie Weis, surprising QB Matt Cassel, and coach of the year candidate Todd Haley, the Chiefs certainly have the personnel to at least make it a game, if not surprise everybody.  

Did I mention that current Chiefs GM (and New England former GM) Scott Pioli was one of the most integral pieces in putting together a Patriots roster that were perennial Super Bowl contenders?   

Combine the above with young stud weapons Jamaal Charles at RB, Dwayne Bowe at wideout and Tony Moeaki at TE, they also can put together the type of game plan needed to successfully attack the New England defense. Charles and fellow RB Thomas Jones can line up and run through you, while Bowe and Moeaki are big targets that are mobile and can get deep behind the secondary.  

Most of their success has come at home, however. Playing in Foxborough could be a totally different story.  

But if there has ever been a combination that has been known to give the Patriots fits it's a young, quality quarterback and power running.  

The Chiefs have both.

The Patriots will likely face either of these teams coming off of their first round bye, which works out quite well for the purpose of this article. How convenient.

3.  The Indianapolis Colts

This one may be a moot point (as I think the Colts will bow out to Baltimore), but hey the possibility is always there.  

As corny/awful/insert alternative word here as it is, a Peyton Manning team does always have a chance to win a game. So we may very well see a Manning-Brady part whatever-it-is-now if the Chiefs can beat the Jets.

While I don't think the Colts have the goods this year to beat the Pats in the playoffs in Foxborough, the two teams did play to a rather close affair earlier in the season.  

And, as mentioned, Manning does always seem to find a way to pull games out of thin air.

The Colts and Pats are very familiar with one another, they should be given how often they play. If Manning can get hot and avoid those costly INT's he threw last time, then it may just be game on.  

As mediocre as Manning has been, Reggie Wayne is still hanging around, Pierre Garcon is ever improving and their running game is finally taking off with the return of Joseph Addai.

If the defense could play half decent and limit the Patriots yards after catch, then they have a shot.  

Although I would still pick the Patriots in this game, the Colts offer the second most worrisome competition for the Pats, after the Jets, on the road to Dallas.

4.  The Atlanta Falcons

Of course, this matchup may never even come to fruition with such a wide open NFC, but if they can make it through, Atlanta poses the biggest threat to New England.  

I have heard lots of talk about the Eagles but, for what it's worth, I don't see Philly making it through to Dallas.  

Current Falcons GM Thomas Dimitroff was once a lead scout for the Patriots organization, while serving as the team's lead college scout. He spent six largely successful years at the position before leaving to build his own team in Atlanta.

If anybody knows how to build a team to compare to the Patriots, it would be him. Does it hurt that the Falcons have a supremely talented quartet of offensive talents at QB, RB, WR and TE?  Hardly.  

Combine that with a solid O-Line, and you have a team that could give the Pats defense fits.

Matt Ryan has been everything and more for Atlanta, and Michael Turner has become a top 5 back in the league; Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez are like the Chiefs combination, only much better.  

Off all the teams that could score with the Patriots, the Falcons are it.

While the defense has been better than expected, I still don't know if it can keep up with Brady.  

That will remain to be seen but hey, who knows, this matchup could be nothing more than a what if.

The playoff scenario was made very simple yesterday after the Colts defeated the Raiders 31-26 at Oakland Coliseum: Win next Sunday and get in the playoffs.

This scenario was a far cry from where this team was three weeks ago, after they choked away yet another key game against an opponent (in this case, the Cowboys) they should have beaten. But, as we have found with these 2010 Colts, they seem to be at their best when their backs are against the wall. It seems that only when the pressure is truly ratcheted up that this team responds and plays the way they should.

This mindset was on display yesterday when, to open the game, the Colts surrendered a 99-yard touchdown on a kick return by Jacoby Ford. Down 7-0 early, the Colts offense stepped out onto the field, and promptly went three-and-out. The Colts punted, and already one got the sense early that this might not be Indy's game.

But, something happened when Oakland got the ball at their 29-yard line. This 'something' was on display last week, and for many of us, we had no idea where it came from or why it decided it finally show up now.

The Colts run defense made a stand, and as a result the Colts are one win away from their eighth AFC South title in nine years.

Following the Colts three-and-out to start the game, the Raiders got the ball on the Indy 29-yard line. Their first play was a two-yard run, stopped by defensive tackle Antonio Johnson, who was playing in place of injured Daniel Muir (more on this later). The second play was another short run. The third was an incomplete pass. Three-and-out. Oakland punts.

That series, right there, was probably the most critical in the ballgame.

The first series for Indy's defense set the tone for the entire day. They held Oakland to six three-and-outs and only 80 yards on the ground. This is an Oakland offense that averaged nearly 160 yards rushing a game coming in, and they were playing at home.

But it wasn't just the run defense that stepped up. For the second week in a row, the offensive line decided they were going to earn their paychecks. The Colts offense gouged the Raiders for 191 rushing yards, including 98 on 17 carries by former-Raiders back Dominic Rhodes. His re-signing, along with the return of Joseph Addai from injury, helped spark a Colts ground game that had looked awful in the beginning of December. With the recent loss of Austin Collie for the season, and the shelving of Dallas Clark and Anthony Gonzalez, the emergence of the run game has been critical to Indy's success these last three games.

Other observations from the game:

• We've continued to note this, but Peyton Manning misses Dallas Clark and Austin Collie, Collie especially. While tight end Jacob Tamme and wide receiver Blair White both had impressive TDs yesterday, it is obvious Peyton is not comfortable with them the way is is with Clark and Collie. Peyton's second INT was a poorly thrown ball to a double-covered Tamme. Don't know why he threw that, but it looked bad and ended bad. Peyton was 16-30 for 179 yards, 3 TDs, and 2 INTs. When your running game is killing the opponent for 191 yards at 4.9 a carry, there is no reason to go 16-30 with two picks. So far, without Austin Collie this season, Peyton has thrown 14 TDs and 14 INTs (four returned for touchdowns) With Collie, Manning has 17 TDs and only 3 INTs.
• Like all of you, I had a big smile on my face seeing Dom run for nearly 100 yards. Love to watch Dom run.
• With Joseph Addai back, and with Rhodes alternating with him, pass protection for Manning was noticeably better. Donald Brown, who started the game, did not return in the second half. We aren't sure if it was because of injury, or if he was just benched again.
• Another impressive game for Pierre Garcon. That back shoulder TD catch was text book. Four in a row. Keep it rolling, kid.
• Peyton running for the endzone late in the game is simply priceless. Sliding before going in was him being classy.
• So, when does Ken Hamlin get a chance to start at strong safety? Because, right now, the weak link in the defense is Aaron Francisco. Considering that Francisco is a much better special teams player than a starting safety, and since the Colts have surrendered two returns for TDs in two weeks, maybe the coaches should consider a change. Ya think?
• Another impressive game by Fili Moala. It's cool to see him finally start to develop. Also, it's worth noting that, once again, the return of Antonio Johnson to the starting DT spot results in the Colts shutting down another great rushing attack. Mookie should remain the starter. Daniel Muir has clearly regressed, and both Mookie and Fili offer the best tackle tandem Indy has, with a sprinkle of Ricardo Mathews.
• Speaking of Mookie, he had 5 tackles on the day.
• I've been critical of Robert Mathis all season, especially in big games on the road. Yesterday, he had 1.5 sacks and six tackles. Dude was ballin'.
• It's now fairly obvious that one of the reasons the run defense was so poor all season was Philip Wheeler. I don't care what people like Bill Polian, Jim Caldwell, and Jim Irsay have said publicly, Wheeler has not played well in '10. Yesterday, the guy who lost his job to Wheeler last season due to injury, Tyjuan Halger, was all over the field. Hagler had 9 tackles, and he is much better in run support than Wheeler. Factor in the high level of play from guys like Pat Angerer, Kavell Conner, and the soon-to-be-returning Clint Session, and I don't think we shall see Wheeler starting again anytime soon. Just to give you an idea of just how much better Hagler is, he has started just two games and played in 12 this year. In that time, Hagler has 44 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT, and 2 passes defended. Wheeler, meanwhile, has played in 16 games started in 6 of them. He has 39 tackles, 1 PD, no sacks, and no INTs.
• Pat McAfee continues to struggle. Punts are poor and his kickoffs are lacking. He simply has not been the same since he took a dip in the Broadripple canal and got pinched for it.
• Blocking on kick and punt returns is as bad as the o-line blocking for running backs three weeks ago.
  
• Gonna give some love to the secondary, especially Justin Tryon and Antoine Bethea. Both those guys know how to cover, and thank god for that. Jacob Lacey and Tryon were also good in run support. Both had a total of 11 tackles.
  
• Collin was talking about this in the comments, but as wonderful as the defense played, I agree they are having issues closing games. Up 31-19 with roughly two minutes left, the Raiders and their quarterback Jason Campbell were able to march down the field in 80 yards in three minutes to score on a Zach Miller touchdown. Oakland didn't recover the onside kick, but it shouldn't have gotten to that point. The Colts should have shutdown the Raiders on that drive, but didn't. Campbell was in the shotgun for the entire drive. Of the 12 plays, only one was a run. This kind of situation is what the Colts are built to stop on defense, but in recent weeks they've had problems finishing.

Despite the weaknesses, the injuries, and all the other flaws associated with this Colts team, their performance these last three weeks has been impressive to watch. They are now one win away from the post-season, and that in-and-of-itself is a feat worth cheering when you consider where this team was just three weeks ago. Jim Caldwell and the coaching staff deserve some credit for getting this team in the position they are in now.

At 9-6, this win against the Raiders gives the Colts their ninth straight winning season, and their eleventh in twelve years. One more win, and they're printing playoff tickets for the ninth straight year.

Go Colts.

Colts rush for 191 yards in 31-26 win over Raiders MY EYES SEEM TO BE DECEIVING ME< & WHEREWAS RHODES ALL YEAR< HE WAS A WORKHORSE & CONSUISTENT IN ALL ASKED OF HIM<     WAS BROWN STILL TIRED FROM LAST WEEK< HE HARDLY PLAYEDbut when he did, he did well, or was I just fixated on Rhodes & addai & how great was it for addai to get that 1st TD, been awhile huh After Ford’s early score, Colts running back Joseph Addai ran for a tying touchdown in his first game after missing eight with a shoulder/neck injury. Manning threw TD passes to Tamme, Blair White and Pierre Garcon. The Colts enjoyed steady running from Dominic Rhodes, who gained 98 yards on 17 carries. Addai ran for 45 on 12 carries.

Editor's Note: Had to remove the pic because of copyright stuff when we promote a FanPost on the frontpage. Otherwise, enjoy Devil's great recap. --bbs

Welcome to another rendition of the Devil's Take here on Stampede Blue. We saw the good, the bad, and the ugly during the Colts 31-26 win over the Raiders. Nonetheless, the Colts won this game by pounding the rock and playing stellar run defense.

Welcome back Dominic Rhodes.

It's not very often I get to discuss a Colts running attack that is seemingly on fire, but that's the case today. Two weeks in a row, the Colts have come out and put up 150+ yards on the ground against two of the better running teams in the league. On top of that, our much maligned run defense returned the favor against two of the best rushing offenses in preventing either team in gaining 100 yards on the ground. And if not for the kneel downs at the end, Rhodes probably becomes the 2nd Colts 100 yard rusher in 2 weeks.

Colts grade for Week 15: B+

On paper, this game looks better than last week's game against Jacksonville. Unfortunately, that would be a lie. Unlike last week, the Raiders had the benefit of playing game tape of the Colts against a very, very similar opponent in the Jags. Instead of utilizing the Jags failures to help them win, the Raiders came out determined to make the same mistakes as the Jaguars did. This, more than anything else, is why the Colts won this game.

Colts Rushing Offense: What can I say? Simply put, the best rushing effort I've seen since we won SB 41.

Colts Passing Offense: Could have been better, but the Colts cashed in when it counted. 4 of 11 on 3rd downs?!?!?! WTF!!!!

Colts Defense: For the most part, a very well played game. Wasn't thrilled with the prevent defense late in the 4th.

Special Teams: WTF!!!!!!!!!! The only saving grace for this unit all game was the hard running of Rhodes. Consistently missing blocks and tackles, and you let the Raiders score on the opening kickoff. I thought last weeks game was the worst I'd seen all year, and then you go and let me watch this game. I hope the coach has you guys running sprints all week. This was flat out no effort by a majority of you.

 

****Game MVP****

Dominic Rhodes

For the second time in 2 weeks, a Colts RB is my featured game MVP. For many of us, Rhodes could have easily been voted the MVP of SB 41. Today, he showed us all exactly why. He consistently lowered his pad level and went after the Oakland defense. He gained 98 yards on 17 attempts. He only had 1 attempt all day that failed to gain yards. When the Colts needed a ground game, all of our RB's came to run. Rhodes has pretty much always done well in a Colts uniform, and I truly believe this Colts team can win in the postseason if we continue to run the ball this way.

 

The Colts rushing attack produced quite the staggering result this week:

191 yards rushing on 39 attempts for a 4.9 yard per attempt average

Only the second time in forever (this season and many others) that the Colts rushing attack gained more yards than the passing offense

Gained 10 first downs running the ball

Every Colts RB had a 3.8 yard per carry average or better

 

Well, after last week, I would wager many of us couldn't have predicted that the Colts ground game would be the difference in the game. In fact, most of the "real" media pundits bet against us for that very reason. Bottom line: The Colts ground game and run defense is shaping up just in time for the playoff run. Sound familiar? It should. We got our ass handed to us by a firestorm Jaguars running game in 2006, and then went on to record one of the greatest defensive runs in the postseason EVER.

 

****Dishonorable Mention****

Special Teams

This was pretty much a gimme here. The Colts Special Teams (excluding Adam "Money" Vinatieri) was absolutely garbage. For the second week in a row, the blocking was absolutely horrid on both punts and kickoffs. For the second week in a row, we got torched for a touchdown. Missed tackles, bad angles, piss poor execution. No matter how you label it or call it, the fact is this is unacceptable. Against any opponent, this can kill your season or game. Just ask the now going to be at home for the post season Chargers how vital special teams can be.

 

****Honorable Mention****

Attitude

Am I alone in noticing the Colts offense and defense seemed to play with a bit of a chip on their shoulders? I saw guys laying lumber all game. Yes, they had their own mistakes and breakdowns, but I just saw throughout the game that players seemed to show a lot of fire or spirit. Perhaps it's wishful thinking, but I've become so sick of the lack of attitude that the Colts have had. Maybe if they'd play a little of the "bully" role, they may have a legit shot moving forward.

 

1. Peyton Manning - second week in a row he's played average football. Still, he throws for 3 TD's and directs the offense to it's best rushing output of the year. If the Colts can produce on the ground like they have been, the rest of the NFL needs to take significant notice. 
2. Reggie Wayne - 3rd overall 100 catch season, 2nd in a row. He leads the NFL in catches for a first down with 68 receptions. 
3. Colts Offense - Up until the kneel down by the Colts to end the game, the Colts had scored on 39 straight Red Zone trips. 
4. Colts Run Defense - 2nd week in a row they have held a top 5 running attack to under 100 yards total. They did it today despite missing Dan Muir, who has come on greatly as the season has progressed.

Officiating

You almost can't read my segments without some kind of dig at the officiating. Today, is a rare exception. I felt the refs really called a pretty clean game. There were a few holding calls I felt went missed, but with D-Free and Mathis on the field, it's almost a given. Still, I felt the referees made good solid calls. Just about every call was called correctly to the letter of the book. Yes, there were a few questionable calls, but even those were pretty much called right. Today, I tip my cap to the officials.....now if we could only get this on a regular basis and I'd be happy.

 

For the second week in a row, we got the crappy announcing crew of Dan Dumbdorf (kudos to whoever coined this, because it's legit) and Greg Gumbel. I just cannot stand these two. Dumbledorf is pretty much a moron, and Gumbel is almost as bad. I was watching one play where the Raiders player landed on top of a Colts defender and Dumbledorf was like,"What an athletic move to make that play." What exactly is athletic or special about a player when you aren't down because you landed on a player? Please, please, call the game right. It wasn't special, it wasn't athletic, hell it wasn't even all that much of a play. Realistically, it was simply he never landed on the ground.

 

• Pierre Garcon - For the better part of last year and early parts of this year, the guy has caught nothing but flack from just about everyone on here. Despite being hurt, despite missing time, despite being targeted mostly on the deep routes, the guy hung in there and has quietly developed into a much better receiver over the course of the year. He's done this, despite having the defense already knowing the Colts are going to air it out. The kid is not a finished product yet, but for those of you who still doubt the kid, it's time you gave him his due. The only mistake I can fault the guy for over the last half dozen games is a bad catch that resulted in an interception today. To go a step further, he's finally been invited to join Wayne and Manning's pre-game Route Tree passing routine. To give perspective, only Harrison and Wayne have ever done this previously. In my opinion, that means Manning realizes how crucial this kid can be for the Colts and is bringing him in like he did with Wayne years ago. Wayne did not play as well as Garcon has in his first few years, and we all complained about him. It's just time to give the kid a chance to prove it without constantly bagging on him.
• Colts Running Game - It's quite possible that the Colts may very well have found the winning combination of plays that make the Colts a ground game once more. If they can continue this kind of play, even if they're only gaining 110-120 yards on the ground, it will be HUGE for the Colts offense and defense. With the potential return of all the injured players still on the roster by the playoffs, the Colts could be prepped for a run.
  

The Colts control their own destiny at this point. Win next week, and we win the AFC South and a date with the Ravens. Lose, and we have to hope the Jaguars choke it out. It really is that simple. The Colts have a very eerie playoff journey ahead of them should they reach it.

Colts (4) @ home vs. Ravens (5)

Now, it's a new year and the past means nothing. However, the Ravens haven't beat the Colts in forever, and the Colts still are getting healthy at a time when the Ravens are struggling to stop teams from scoring. So for the sake of my post, we'll give the Colts a win in a close fought battle.

Colts (4) vs. Patriots @ home (1)

Ironically, this would be the 2nd time in recent memory the Colts would face the Patriots after facing the Ravens. In both games, the Colts were considered underdogs going into both.

Now, if the Chiefs were to knock off both the Steelers and Jets, a tall order for anyone, the Colts would then face every team they faced in the 2006 playoffs. That's not only eerie, but downright hysterical. It's not crazy for me to even think about this, because this is a Colts team that is very much getting healthy at the right time. Sure, we're missing guys that won't be back for the year. Sure the team still has issues that need to be fixed. However, there are several positives moving forward. We have all the defensive players coming back that will be back for the year either next week or the playoffs should we beat the Titans.

Our offense is not only getting as healthy as it's been all year, they are finally starting to run the ball effectively. This may be only a tease, but given who they have played the last two weeks, I don't think it's the case. The Colts have been being dared all year to run the ball and teams have exploited that. They cannot continue to do that. To be honest, this really feels like the 2005 Championship run by the Steelers. They hit a point in the year where they were 7-5 and after being destroyed by the Colts. They would go on to lose to the Bengals the following week landing at 7-6. They would then rip off 8 straight victories (including playoffs). They would win ugly, they would win convincingly, and they would of course get help from the officials in SB 40. Still, it was one of the most impressive runs by a team in the last 20 years. The Colts are fully capable of this. It may be wishful thinking, it may be optimism, but it's still not completely out of the question.

 

Regardless of the outcome, there are a few things this season has proven:

1. Manning can make people look like superstars. All season long, Manning has been missing players, key players, on offense. Despite this, he has put up historic numbers. He's broken several of his own records, despite opposing teams knowing the Colts can't run the ball. He's done it despite having guys who had never started a game in their life getting the ball. He's done it despite injuries claiming his 2 best receivers from a year ago (Collie, Clark). Say whatever you want about Brady, but Manning is always showing people why he is the better quarterback.
2. Outside of the Colts offensive line, this team is loaded. Yes, I said loaded. Next season the Colts will yet again be one of the NFL's youngest teams despite the few senior players they have on the squad. We will have all of our injured players back in uniform to start the year. Think of the valuable experience guys like Brown, Angerer, Tryon, Linkenbach, White, and Tamme all got this season. Now, imagine this team next year with everyone back healthy. Sure, the Colts will be in the market for a safety and some offensive line help, but outside of that, the Colts are pretty solid across the board. They may be looking for some help at corner, but even that is questionable given that Kevin Thomas could play outstanding next year when healthy. Add to that mix the trade that brought Tryon over and the kid could be our starter next year.
   
3. Colts ground game has proven itself finally. In the last few years, the Colts running backs have all taken shots at being average or just plain pathetic. Sure, there was some knocks on the offensive line, but we all overlooked it because of the outstanding pass protection and Manning's ability to mask it some. Still, this year when the line has blocked the way it should block, the ground game has been quite effective. Next year will be a big year for the Colts should they be able to get some quality linemen. We still have a developing player in McClendon who could be playing guard next year while learning to play Saturdays position in practice. We still have that hella big OT in Joe Reitz who is another big body that could be factoring into the Colts plans next year too. Just don't be surprised if those guys are your starters at a position next year, I won't be.

All in all, this was a good win for the Colts. It'll help their mindset going into next week knowing all they have to do is win and they are in. Still, there cannot be a let down next week. They need to come out ready to kill, and I do mean that literally, kill the Titans for all 60 minutes of the game. Do that, and they will win their 9 straight season of 10+ wins.

 

***The playoff scenarios are pretty much already set as the only teams that can move up in the standings are the Colts and Ravens. The Colts can only move up in the standings IF the Chiefs lose their final game and the Colts win theirs. This would alter all my previous "what ifs" earlier in the post (Tip to Lell87) However, since the Ravens play the Bengals and the Steelers play the Browns, it's almost impossible for the Ravens to move up. Yes, the Browns could stun the Steelers, but I find it very unlikely. The Ravens are pretty much guaranteed to play the #4 seed.*** EDITED

By Josh Dubow, AP Sports Writer

OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) — Peyton Manning made sure the Colts came out ahead in a game it turned out they didn't need to win to stay in control of the AFC South race.

Manning threw three touchdown passes and iced the game with a 27-yard keeper to help the Colts beat the Raiders 31-26 Sunday in a game that turned out to have little playoff meaning.

The Colts (9-6) allowed Jacoby Ford to return the opening kick for a touchdown, overcame a pair of interceptions by Manning in the second half and survived four field goals from Sebastian Janikowski, including two from more than 50 yards, to move within a win of clinching the AFC South title for their ninth straight playoff berth.

But when Jacksonville lost 20-17 in overtime to Washington in the early game Sunday, the Colts knew that no matter what happened in this game they could clinch the division with a win at home next week against the Titans or a Jaguars loss at Houston.

The results in the early games also robbed this game of any real meaning for the Raiders (7-8), who were eliminated from playoff contention when Kansas City wrapped up a 34-14 win against Tennessee early in the first quarter of this game.

The Chiefs had long been in control of that game so any Oakland player who had caught wind of the score in pregame warmups knew there was only pride on the line.

The Raiders hung close with the Colts for much of this game but were unable to score an offensive touchdown until Jason Campbell's 6-yard pass to Zach Miller with 1:51 to play.

Manning took advantage of a 31-yard pass interference call against Stanford Routt to throw a 4-yard TD pass to Blair White to give the Colts a 24-16 lead late in the third quarter. But little came easy for Manning against Oakland's defense. He threw a pair of interceptions in the second half, giving him 17 for the season, which is his most since 2002.

He responded from the second interception, which led to a field goal that cut his lead to 24-19, by leading the Colts on a 68-yard drive that was capped by a 7-yard TD pass to Pierre Garcon on third down to give Indianapolis a 12-point lead.

After the Colts recovered a late onside kick, Manning ran out the clock with a 27-yard keeper on third-and-2 from the Oakland 31.

Manning completed 16 of 30 passes for 179 yards as he struggled at times against Oakland's aggressive cornerbacks. But the Colts managed to gain 191 yards on the ground, including 98 from former Raider Dominic Rhodes, who returned to Indianapolis earlier this month. Joseph Addai added a 6-yard touchdown run in the first quarter in his first game since hurting a nerve in his left shoulder Oct. 17.

Indianapolis much-maligned run defense once again stepped up to the challenge a week after holding Maurice Jones-Drew and Jacksonville to 67 yards in last week's key win. Oakland's second-ranked rushing attach was held to 80 yards.

The Raiders started fast with a 99-yard return for a score on the opening kick by Ford. It was his team record third kickoff return for a TD, including two to start games.

Oakland went ahead 13-10 after Janikowski made field goals of 59 and 38 yards. The 59-yarder was the second longest in team history. But Manning led a late touchdown drive helped by a personal foul on Lamarr Houston for poking Kyle DeVan in the eye and a 25-yard pass interference call on Chris Johnson. Manning found Jacob Tamme on a 14-yard pass on the next play to make it 17-13 at the break.

Game Stats

Copyright 2010 by STATS LLC and Associated Press. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of STATS LLC and Associated Press is strictly prohibited.

 

Peyton Manning made sure the Indianapolis Colts came out ahead in a game it turned out they didn't need to win to stay in control of the AFC South race.

An official separates Indianapolis Colts offensive tackle Ryan Diem (71) from Oakland Raiders cornerback Stanford Routt (26) in the second quarter of an NFL football game in Oakland, Calif., Sunday, Dec. 26, 2010.

Oakland Raiders wide receiver Jacoby Ford (12) runs past Indianapolis Colts punter Pat McAfee (1) to score a touchdown on a 99-yard kickoff return in the first quarter of an NFL football game in Oakland, Calif., Sunday, Dec. 26, 2010.

Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Blair White (15) scores on a 4-yard touchdown reception past Oakland Raiders cornerback Stanford Routt (26) in the third quarter of an NFL football game in Oakland, Calif., Sunday, Dec. 26, 2010.

Indianapolis Colts tight end Jacob Tamme (84) scores on an 18-yard touchdown pass between Oakland Raiders safety Stevie Brown and safety Tyvon Branch (33) in the second quarter of an NFL football game in Oakland, Calif., Sunday, Dec. 26, 2010.

Oakland Raiders wide receiver Jacoby Ford (12) runs past the Indianapolis Colts coverage team to score a touchdown on a 99-yard kickoff return in the first quarter of an NFL football game in Oakland, Calif., Sunday, Dec. 26, 2010.

Indianapolis Colts running back Joseph Addai (29) celebrates with guard Kyle DeVan (66) and wide receiver Blair White (15) after scoring on a 6-yard touchdown run against the Oakland Raiders in the first quarter of an NFL football game in Oakland, Calif., Sunday, Dec. 26, 2010.

Indianapolis Colts running back Dominic Rhodes, center, is tackled by Oakland Raiders cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha (21), safety Tyvon Branch (33), safety Michael Huff, left, linebacker Kamerion Wimbley, second from right, and defensive tackle John Henderson (79) in the second quarter of an NFL football game in Oakland, Calif., Sunday, Dec. 26, 2010.

Indianapolis Colts cornerback Cornelius Brown (39) breaks up a pass intended for Oakland Raiders wide receiver Jacoby Ford (12) in the third quarter of an NFL football game in Oakland, Calif., Sunday, Dec. 26, 2010.

Oakland Raiders wide receiver Jacoby Ford (12) celebrates after scoring a touchdown on a 99-yard kickoff return against the Indianapolis Colts in the first quarter of an NFL football game in Oakland, Calif., Sunday, Dec. 26, 2010.

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning (18) passes against the Oakland Raiders in the third quarter of an NFL football game in Oakland, Calif., Sunday, Dec. 26, 2010.

Indianapolis Colts linebacker Gary Brackett (58) and defensive end Robert Mathis (98) pressure Oakland Raiders quarterback Jason Campbell (8) in the third quarter of an NFL football game in Oakland, Calif., Sunday, Dec. 26, 2010.

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning (18) passes as Oakland Raiders defensive end Matt Shaughnessy (77) applies pressure in the first quarter of an NFL football game in Oakland, Calif., Sunday, Dec. 26, 2010.

Oakland Raiders cornerback Chris Johnson breaks up a pass intended for Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Pierre Garcon (85) in the first quarter of an NFL football game in Oakland, Calif., Sunday, Dec. 26, 2010.

Indianapolis Colts head coach Jim Caldwell watches from the sideline against the Oakland Raiders in the second quarter of an NFL football game in Oakland, Calif., Sunday, Dec. 26, 2010.

Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Reggie Wayne (87) is tackled by Oakland Raiders safety Tyvon Branch (33) in the first quarter of an NFL football game in Oakland, Calif., Sunday, Dec. 26, 2010.

Peyton Manning made sure the Indianapolis Colts came out ahead in a game it turned out they didn't need to win to stay in control of the AFC South race.

An official separates Indianapolis Colts offensive tackle Ryan Diem (71) from Oakland Raiders cornerback Stanford Routt (26) in the second quarter of an NFL football game in Oakland, Calif., Sunday, Dec. 26, 2010.

Oakland Raiders wide receiver Jacoby Ford (12) runs past Indianapolis Colts punter Pat McAfee (1) to score a touchdown on a 99-yard kickoff return in the first quarter of an NFL football game in Oakland, Calif., Sunday, Dec. 26, 2010.

Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Blair White (15) scores on a 4-yard touchdown reception past Oakland Raiders cornerback Stanford Routt (26) in the third quarter of an NFL football game in Oakland, Calif., Sunday, Dec. 26, 2010.

Indianapolis Colts tight end Jacob Tamme (84) scores on an 18-yard touchdown pass between Oakland Raiders safety Stevie Brown and safety Tyvon Branch (33) in the second quarter of an NFL football game in Oakland, Calif., Sunday, Dec. 26, 2010.

Oakland Raiders wide receiver Jacoby Ford (12) runs past the Indianapolis Colts coverage team to score a touchdown on a 99-yard kickoff return in the first quarter of an NFL football game in Oakland, Calif., Sunday, Dec. 26, 2010.

Indianapolis Colts running back Joseph Addai (29) celebrates with guard Kyle DeVan (66) and wide receiver Blair White (15) after scoring on a 6-yard touchdown run against the Oakland Raiders in the first quarter of an NFL football game in Oakland, Calif., Sunday, Dec. 26, 2010.

Indianapolis Colts running back Dominic Rhodes, center, is tackled by Oakland Raiders cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha (21), safety Tyvon Branch (33), safety Michael Huff, left, linebacker Kamerion Wimbley, second from right, and defensive tackle John Henderson (79) in the second quarter of an NFL football game in Oakland, Calif., Sunday, Dec. 26, 2010.

Indianapolis Colts cornerback Cornelius Brown (39) breaks up a pass intended for Oakland Raiders wide receiver Jacoby Ford (12) in the third quarter of an NFL football game in Oakland, Calif., Sunday, Dec. 26, 2010.

Oakland Raiders wide receiver Jacoby Ford (12) celebrates after scoring a touchdown on a 99-yard kickoff return against the Indianapolis Colts in the first quarter of an NFL football game in Oakland, Calif., Sunday, Dec. 26, 2010.

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning (18) passes against the Oakland Raiders in the third quarter of an NFL football game in Oakland, Calif., Sunday, Dec. 26, 2010.

Indianapolis Colts linebacker Gary Brackett (58) and defensive end Robert Mathis (98) pressure Oakland Raiders quarterback Jason Campbell (8) in the third quarter of an NFL football game in Oakland, Calif., Sunday, Dec. 26, 2010.

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning (18) passes as Oakland Raiders defensive end Matt Shaughnessy (77) applies pressure in the first quarter of an NFL football game in Oakland, Calif., Sunday, Dec. 26, 2010.

Oakland Raiders cornerback Chris Johnson breaks up a pass intended for Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Pierre Garcon (85) in the first quarter of an NFL football game in Oakland, Calif., Sunday, Dec. 26, 2010.

Indianapolis Colts head coach Jim Caldwell watches from the sideline against the Oakland Raiders in the second quarter of an NFL football game in Oakland, Calif., Sunday, Dec. 26, 2010.

Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Reggie Wayne (87) is tackled by Oakland Raiders safety Tyvon Branch (33) in the first quarter of an NFL football game in Oakland, Calif., Sunday, Dec. 26, 2010.

The Playoffs are in reach. They are right there for the taking but one major hurdle remains. A win today will go a long way towards the Colts clinching a 8th straight playoff bid. 

On paper the Oakland Raiders match up well against the Colts. They rank 2nd running the football and are top 5 against the run. That leads to their offensive strength (one of the most dangerous in the league) vs. the Colts biggest defensive weakness and their defensive strength vs. the Colts definite offensive strength (best in the league). Advantage Raiders.

Hang on though. Just remember Oakland fans, the Jags matched up well against the Colts too...a whole lot of good that did them. Plus, two of Oakland's (and the league's) better defenders are hobbled by injury. Richard Seymour, a menace from Peyton Manning's past, is suffering from a pulled hamstring while shutdown cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha is hobbled by ankle problems. 

With the playoffs on the line, both teams are facing an absolute must win. For the Raiders, a loss and they are done. The Colts wouldn't be dead but it would put their fate in the hands of Jack Del Rio and the Jags, which is a nauseating thought at best. 

In the biggest games, teams win by riding their preeminent players. In what amounts to an early playoff game, the Colts will need to rely on familiar faces and an unheralded defensive front to carry the day.

Here are the players that will rise to the challenge and carry the Colts to victory. 

Offense:

Peyton Manning.

Duh.  Everything good (and at times this year bad) starts with the Peyton Manning. 2-2 lifetime against Oakland, the Raiders are one of the few teams against who Peyton does not hold a winning record. After a much publicized slump, Peyton is back on track looking as accurate as ever. Still the loss of Collie will undoubtedly hurt the Colts' precision passing game. With Asomugha fighting an ankle injury look for Peyton to target and test him often.

Jeff Saturday.

The Raider interior defensive line is vicious. While Richard Seymour may get more publicity (most of it deservedly so) 6-6, 300 pound Tommy Kelly is having a superb year having already registered 7 sacks. With Seymour's 5.5 quarterback take downs, the two have combined to be amongst the league leaders in sacks for interior defensive linemen. When they come off for a break the 335 pound former starter John Henderson backs them up meaning there will be little respite for Saturday or the offensive line. For the Colts unit to keep Peyton upright and the Colts' passing game humming, Saturday will have to be both sharp calling out the defensive coverages and stout pass blocking against the much bigger Seymour and Kelly. 

Reggie Wayne. 

After an off week against the Jags, look for Reggie Wayne to bounce back big time, especially with Asomugha not 100 percent. If Asomugha looks slow and shows even the slightest of limps, Peyton will target Reggie all day and will try to open up the field by taking a few shots deep. 15 catches is a certain possibility for Wayne today. 

Defense:

After a heroic effort last week, the Colts will be tested again. This test in the form of Darren McFadden and Michael Bush might even be tougher, as Bush and Mcfadden combine to form a thunder and lightening, power and speed approach. 

If the Colts want to control the game, everything will start up front. Eric Foster, Daniel Muir and Fili Moala will have to maintain the same terrific energy they played with last week, especially in the absence of Daniel Muir. If they can gain penetration and at least slow down the Oakland runners on the line of scrimmage, they will make the job of the linebackers and safeties that much easier. 

Facing a weak receiving core and an mediocre Quarterback in Jason Campbell, expect the Colts to bring down 8 and even 9 guys into the box on a regular basis to control the line of scrimmage and prevent the Raiders from dominating time of possession. 

 

Final Prediction: With pride and their reputation at stake the Colts will continue their winning ways and should roll to another hard fought victory. Colts 31 Oakland 20. 

Poll

Who will shine the brightest?

• Peyton Manning
• Reggie Wayne
• Pierre Garcon
• Donald Brown
• Defense
• Nobody
• Addai (If he plays)

  28 votes | Results

  Brown Celebrates his 43 yard TD run with Pierre Garcon in 3rd qrtr     +++ Colts 3rd TD of Game ++ Jags 24 @ colts 34 12-19-10     .

Sunday, December 27th, 2009: With little hope left to save the season and make a playoff run, the Jets stared down a frightening opponent in the form of Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts. Jim Caldwell decided to take the safe route and sit most of his starters in the second half, including Manning. New York capitalized on this and made Curtis Painter look like the rookie that he was. The scoreboard read 29-15 at the end, and I realized that the Jets were just one week away from "backing into the playoffs" and they looked poised to make a run.

 

Sunday, January 3rd, 2010: The Bengals simply looked sloppy in Giants Stadium as they took a beating from the Jets. They amassed zero first-half passing yards and appeared unprepared. Just six days later, there would be a Saturday afternoon matchup between these two teams again.

 

Saturday, January 9th, 2010: Mark Sanchez had a mistake-free game in which he passed for 182 yards on 12 completions, tossing one ball to Dustin Keller in the end zone and none to the other team. The run game was successful as well, accounting for two scores as Shonn Greene ran for 135 yards in this 24-14 New York Jets victory.

 

Sunday, January 17th, 2010: In the divisional round of the playoffs, the Jets had a bigger challenge to face than the previous week: the San Diego Chargers. Phillip Rivers looked to be unstoppable. But Nate Kaeding looked back to his rookie season in 2005, remembered how he singlehandedly blew a playoff game against the Jets, and did the same thing again! Kaeding missed three field goals, and the Jets pulled off a 17-14 win to advance to the AFC Championship Game.

 

Sunday, January 24th, 2010: Despite an early 17-6 lead, Gang Green just couldn't hold on to make a trip to Miami. Peyton Manning flew down the field at the end of the first half to cut the lead to just four points, and he didn't stop there. Two more touchdowns later, the Colts were up 30-17 and Manning had 377 yards, connecting with Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie for 274 yards. The Cinderella story had come to an end, and the Jets packed up their bags and headed home.

 

Since that day, the Jets have taken a rollercoaster ride that left me convinced that they'd win a Super Bowl three different times and convinced that they aren't capable of making the playoffs four different times. They haven't ever been a very consistent team, so that comes as no surprise, but the amount of talent this team pulled together during the offseason had many fans believing that this would be a new and improved New York Jets.

From the unexpected rejuvenation of LaDainian Tomlinson's career, to the explosiveness Santonio Holmes has added to the pass game, to the dominance of Antonio Cromartie, this is by no means the "same old Jets." Last season, I could've blamed at least four losses entirely on the play of Mark Sanchez. This year, I'm not sure that he is completely accountable for any of the team's losses. In fact, he has singlehandedly won a few games.

Regardless of a 10-4 record, the second best in the league, the words "undisciplined" and "inconsistent" continue to fly around when this team is discussed. Maybe that's because they've struggled against teams like the Detroit Lions, Houston Texans, Cleveland Browns, Miami Dolphins and Denver Broncos. Maybe it's because Braylon Edwards had a DUI, Sal Alosi tripped Nolan Carroll and Rex Ryan likes to make amateur softcore porn videos with his wife.

The Jets need to take the momentum that an upset win over the Steelers provided and carry it into Chicago next week. The Bears have a tough defense and can boast that their front seven is one of the most dominant in the league at stopping the run. The good news for the Jets is that they match up extremely well against this Chicago offense.

Matt Forte and Chester Taylor are not exactly a daunting opponent for a Jets defensive line that has been abusing running backs all year long. As for the passing game, the Bears have some talent in the receiving corps. Johnny Knox is turning into a very valuable target in his second season in the league. Devin Hester is always a threat thanks to his speed. And Greg Olsen has always been solid at tight end.

Unfortunately, those three have the unfortunate task of taking on Revis, Cromartie & Co. The New York Jets secondary is one of the best in the league, and they will be looking to capitalize on the mistake-prone Jay Cutler this Sunday. Cutler has stated that he will challenge Darrelle Revis, as it would put their team at too much of a disadvantage to simply avoid a certain receiver for the entire game. Good luck to you with that, Mr. Cutler.

A win in Chicago would mean two consecutive victories against other "elite" teams. The only opponent left would be the Buffalo Bills in what could potentially be a meaningless game at that point. The Jets will look to finish this season with a few consecutive wins just as they did last year. They will most likely face a tougher road than last year though.

In the wild-card round, the Jets would be lucky to get matched up against Jacksonville or Kansas City, but they may be stuck facing the Indianapolis Colts for a shot at revenge. Should they win in the first round, the divisional round opponent may be even worse. The Jets will face either Pittsburgh or New England, two teams they have beaten this season (going on to get routed by the Pats in their second matchup).

The momentum is in their favor. Overcoming a tough Chicago Bears team may mean quite a lot for this team's psyche and confidence level heading into the playoffs. This Sunday is the Jets' chance to show the world that they are as good as advertised. They are just 2-3 against other "elite" squads as of now, beating the Pats and Steelers, but losing to the Pats the second time along with losses to the Ravens and Packers. Finishing 12-4 with an even record against the league's finest is a lot more convincing than 11-5 with just two wins and four losses against other great teams.

Does this team have what it takes to gain some composure and make a deep playoff run? I think so, but you can decide for yourself.

The Indianapolis Colts travel to Oakland for a crucial game against the Raiders with plenty of playoff implications. The Colts are in the playoffs should they win out.

(Sports Network) - The Indianapolis Colts were able to regain control of their playoff destiny with a sorely-needed victory last week, while the Oakland Raiders kept their slim postseason hopes alive by coming through with a big win of their own in their most recent outing.

Both teams seek to build off those important results in a critical Week 16 matchup this Sunday at the Oakland Coliseum, a venue that hasn't hosted a game of such magnitude at this stage of the season in quite some time.

Indianapolis entered last weekend's play one game behind resurgent Jacksonville for first place in the AFC South, a division the Colts have usually had an ironclad stranglehold upon in December in recent years. The reigning conference champions were able to restore a sense of order with one of their most complete performances of the season, receiving strong showings on both sides of the ball in a 34-24 triumph that prevented the Jaguars from clinching a playoff berth.

Quarterback Peyton Manning was his customary self in leading the Indianapolis offense, with the four-time league MVP completing a crisp 19-of-29 passes for 229 yards and two touchdowns without a turnover. The surprise was provided by the Colts' defense, which shook off its season-long struggles against the run to shut down one of the NFL's most potent ground attacks.

Jacksonville went into the contest having amassed over 200 rushing yards in three straight games, but was held to a scant 67 yards on 22 attempts by a determined Indianapolis squad that had been ranked 29th in the NFL in run defense.

The Colts will get a chance to see whether last week's was a trend or an aberration on Sunday. Oakland boasts the league's second-best rushing offense, averaging an impressive 157.5 yards per game, and piled up 264 yards on the ground in a 39-26 dismantling of downtrodden Denver in Week 15 that enabled the Raiders to remain in contention in the AFC West race.

Oakland, which finished the day with 502 total yards one week after gaining 476 in a tough seven-point loss at Jacksonville the previous Sunday, will still need plenty of help in order to end an eight-year postseason drought. The Raiders trail Kansas City by two games for the division's top spot with only two left to play, and are still one back of second-place San Diego in the standings.

The Raiders can capture the division by defeating the Colts and following up with a win in Kansas City next Sunday, but the Chiefs also have to lose to Tennessee this week and the Chargers have to fall in one of their final two tests as well.

Indianapolis has a more direct path to reach the playoffs for the ninth consecutive year, as it would claim the AFC South title by prevailing in its two remaining games. The Colts conclude the regular season by hosting fading Tennessee.

Manning won't have one of his main weapons on the field when the Colts visit the Coliseum, as valued wide receiver Austin Collie was placed on injured reserve Wednesday after sustaining a third concussion of the season during the Jacksonville win. On the other hand, running back Joseph Addai has practiced fully this week and appears on track to return from a lingering neck problem that's sidelined him for the past eight games.

SERIES HISTORY

The Raiders have won seven of 11 all-time regular-season meetings with Indianapolis, but the Colts have won the last two matchups between the teams, backing up a 35-14 home victory in 2004 with a 21-14 decision at the Coliseum in December of 2007. Oakland had defeated Indianapolis four straight times prior to that 2004 loss, with the most recent triumph a 23-18 verdict in Indiana in 2001.

The clubs have also split a pair of postseason matchups, with the Colts winning the 1970 AFC Championship in Baltimore and Oakland returning the favor with a 37-31 overtime ousting in a 1977 AFC Divisional Playoff at Memorial Stadium.

Both Indianapolis head coach Jim Caldwell and Oakland's Tom Cable will be facing one another, as well as their counterpart's respective teams, for the first time in their present positions.

WHEN THE COLTS HAVE THE BALL

For just about this entire season, Indianapolis has been a team that's thrown an awful lot and run very little, as the Colts presently lead the NFL in passing offense (298.1 ypg) and are dead last in rushing yards (85.1 ypg). That imbalanced concept changed last week, however, with the club gaining a healthy 155 yards on the ground against the Jaguars to aid a razor-sharp day out of Manning (4257 passing yards, 28 TD, 15 INT). Second-year back Donald Brown (460 rushing yards, 2 TD, 20 receptions) ran for a career-best 129 yards in the win, with a good chunk of that total coming on a back-breaking 43-yard touchdown burst in the third quarter, and the hopeful return of the versatile Addai (406 rushing yards, 18 receptions), a two-time 1,000-yard rusher who's also an excellent pass protector as well as a fine receiver, should help Indianapolis become less reliant on their cornerstone quarterback's right arm. Still, don't expect the Colts to stray too much from their pass-first philosophy, though Collie's absence takes away one option from a still-deep corps of pass-catchers headlined by four-time Pro Bowl wideout Reggie Wayne (99 receptions, 1247 yards, 5 TD). Speedy counterpart Pierre Garcon (57 receptions, 4 TD) had 93 receiving yards and two touchdowns in a win at Tennessee two weeks back -- a game Collie also missed -- while tight end Jacob Tamme (53 receptions, 3 TD) has shown to be a capable fill-in for injured All- Pro Dallas Clark.

Oakland will attempt to combat the Colts' diverse aerial assault with a strong collection of pass rushers that have accounted for 40 sacks this season, tied for the third-most in the NFL. Tackles Tommy Kelly (52 tackles, 7 sacks) and Richard Seymour (48 tackles, 5.5 sacks) have excelled at creating pressure from up the gut, while outside linebacker Kamerion Wimbley (50 tackles, 6 sacks) and end Matt Shaughnessy (51 tackles, 7 sacks) can bring the heat from the outside. Starting safeties Michael Huff (87 tackles, 4 sacks, 1 INT) and Tyvon Branch (91 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 INT) have combined for an astounding seven sacks as well, though it remains to be seen if the Raiders will blitz the quick-thinking Manning with that type of bravado come Sunday. Seymour is questionable to play due to a hamstring strain, however, while shutdown cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha (17 tackles) is still fighting through an ankle sprain that limited his snaps in the Denver game. Oakland can be run upon, ranking 26th in the league in rush defense (130.9 ypg) and surrendering 234 yards on the ground to the Jaguars two weeks back, but a pair of rookies -- middle linebacker Rolando McClain (71 tackles, 0.5 sacks, 1 INT) and end Lamarr Houston (30 tackles, 4 sacks) -- have been two bright spots in that area.

WHEN THE RAIDERS HAVE THE BALL

Expect Oakland to try to pound away at an undersized Indianapolis defense with its excellent running game, which would serve the dual purpose of keeping Manning on the sidelines for as long as possible. Top back Darren McFadden (1112 rushing yards, 43 receptions, 10 total TD) has put together an exceptional season in which the former first-round draft choice has averaged 5.3 yards per carry and also been a tremendous receiver out in open space, and the Raiders can also grind it out inside behind 245-pound complement Michael Bush (499 rushing yards, 7 TD, 11 receptions). Throwing the ball has been more of an adventure, as quarterback Jason Campbell (2001 passing yards, 11 TD, 8 INT) has had an up-and-down first year with the Silver and Black and injuries have often hampered a group of receivers that wasn't very deep to begin with. Tight end Zach Miller (46 receptions, 4 TD) and wideout Louis Murphy (37 receptions, 2 TD) have been Campbell's most reliable targets, while rookie speedster Jacoby Ford (22 receptions, 2 TD) is averaging nearly 19 yards per catch as the team's best deep threat. The Colts also need to pay attention to fullback Marcel Reece (112 rushing yards, 23 receptions, 4 total TD), who hooked up with Campbell for a 73-yard touchdown last week.

After being abused by opponents utilizing a smash-mouth approach for the majority of the season, the Colts really stepped up and rose to the challenge against Jacksonville, with veteran middle linebacker Gary Brackett (64 tackles) and rookie strongside starter Pat Angerer (78 tackles, 1 sack) spearheading a charge that held Jaguars factor back Maurice-Jones Drew to a pedestrian 46 yards on 15 carries. However, such displays haven't been the norm for Indianapolis, which is surrendering an average of 135.8 rushing yards per game (28th overall) and 4.7 yards per attempt on the year. The Colts are proficient at harassing the quarterback, however, with ends Robert Mathis (50 tackles, 9.5 sacks) and Dwight Freeney (23 tackles, 8 sacks) two of the best in the business, and a secondary headed up by free safety and leading tackler Antoine Bethea (94 tackles, 0.5 sacks, 1 INT) typically doesn't give up many big plays. The Colts hope to have their best cover corner, Kelvin Hayden (61 tackles, 2 INT), back after missing the last three games with a neck stinger, though replacement Justin Tryon (30 tackles) has done a solid job filling in.

FANTASY FOCUS

Manning leads the league in passing yards and is near the top in touchdown throws, as if owners would need any additional evidence to justify slotting the star signal-caller in lineups. Wayne and Garcon are starting locks as well and could receive an increase in looks with Collie out again, and Tamme wouldn't be a bad choice at the tight end spot. Proceed with caution in regards to Addai, who may be worked in slowly after a long layoff, and Brown may be the better play out of the Indianapolis backfield this week. McFadden is the absolute Oakland player to have for fantasy purposes, but the gifted back may be the only Raider worth starting other than usually-active kicker Sebastian Janikowski. Those using Campbell in what's normally a championship week in leagues should do so at their own risk, and Miller's more of a fall- back option at tight end. Neither defense is recommended here, but Colts kicker Adam Vinatieri is usually a safe selection.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

Last week's performance may be an indication that the Colts have broken out of their midseason malaise and are ready to take off just at the right time. Then again, it's reasonable to question whether that win was merely the product of being just a bit better than a flawed Jacksonville team. The blueprint for beating Indianapolis has always been running the football effectively and pressuring Manning to knock the offense out of rhythm, two areas in which the Raiders have been adept at throughout their vastly-improved 2010 campaign. Having averaged better than 32 points over its last three games, Oakland does have the firepower to hang with the defending AFC champs, and Campbell is 4-0 as starter at home this season. The Colts don't lose too many shootouts, but the Raiders' dynamic running game and McFadden's home-run ability may be enough to pull off what most would consider an upset.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Raiders 27, Colts 24

Here’s my updated Week 16 fantasy rankings. 

 

Running Backs

1. Arian Foster at Denver
2. Rashard Mendenhall vs. Carolina (Thursday)
3. Darren McFadden vs. Indianapolis
4. Michael Turner vs. New Orleans (Monday)
5. Ray Rice at Cleveland
6. BenJarvus Green-Ellis at Buffalo
7. Jamaal Charles vs. Tennessee
8. Chris Johnson at Kansas City
9. LeGarrette Blount vs. Seattle
10. Adrian Peterson at Philadelphia
11. LeSean McCoy vs. Minnesota
12. Steven Jackson vs. San Francisco
13. Ryan Torain at Jacksonville
14. Felix Jones vs. Arizona (Saturday)
15. Mike Tolbert at Cincinnati
16. Rashard Jennings vs. Washington
17. Ahmad Bradshaw at Green Bay
18. Marshawn Lynch at Tampa  Bay
19. Fred Jackson vs. New England
20. Peyton Hillis vs. Baltimore
21. Tim Hightower at Dallas (Saturday)
22. Matt Forte vs. New York Jets
23. Knowshon Moreno vs. Houston
24. Ronnie Brown vs. Detroit
25. Cedric Benson vs. San Diego
26. Jonathan Stewart at Pittsburgh (Thursday)
27. Donald Brown at Oakland
28. Tashard Choice vs. Arizona (Saturday)
29. Brandon Jacobs at Green Bay
30. LaDainian Tomlinson at Chicago
31. Michael Bush vs. Indianapolis
32. Danny Woodhead at Buffalo
33. Brian Westbrook at St. Louis
34. Pierre Thomas at Atlanta (Monday)
35. Maurice Morris at Miami 

 

Wide Receivers

1. Vincent Jackson at Cincinnati
2. Marques Colston at Atlanta (Monday)
3. DeSean Jackson vs. Minnesota
4. Hakeem Nicks at Green Bay
5. Roddy White vs. New Orleans (Monday)
6. Brandon Marshall vs. Detroit
7. Reggie Wayne at Oakland
8. Miles Austin at Arizona (Saturday)
9. Anquan Boldin at Cleveland
10. Calvin Johnson at Miami
11. Greg Jennings vs. New York Giants
12. Jeremy Maclin vs. Minnesota
13. Kenny Britt at Kansas City
14. Mike Wallace vs. Carolina (Thursday)
15. Larry Fitzgerald vs. Dallas (Saturday)
16. Mike Williams (TB) vs. Seattle
17. Dwayne Bowe vs. Tennessee
18. Pierre Garcon at Oakland
19. Santana Moss at Jacksonville
20. Brandon Lloyd vs.  Houston
21. Deion Branch at Buffalo
22. Wes Welker at Buffalo
23. Santonio Holmes at Chicago
24. Stevie Johnson vs. New England
25. Hines Ward vs. Carolina (Thursday)
26. Sidney Rice at Philadelphia
27. Braylon Edwards at Chicago
28. Mario Manningham at Green Bay
29. Big Mike Williams (SEA) at Tampa Bay
30. Kevin Walter at Denver
31. Steve Breaston vs. Dallas (Saturday)
32. Lance Moore at Atlanta (Monday)
33. Malcom Floyd at Cincinnati
34. Davone Bess vs. Detroit
35. Mike Thomas vs. Washington
36. Percy Harvin vs. Philadelphia
37. Derrick Mason at Cleveland
38. Josh Morgan at St. Louis
39. Jacoby Ford vs. Indianapolis
40. Earl Bennett vs. New York Jets
41. David Nelson at New England
42. James Jones vs. New York Giants
43. Anthony Armstrong at Jacksonville
44. Andre Caldwell vs. San Diego
45. Blair White at Oakland
46. Chad Ochocinco vs. San Diego
47. Michael Crabtree at St. Louis
48. Jabar Gaffney vs.  Houston
49. Danny Amendola vs. San Francisco
50. Jacoby Jones at Denver


Notable Changes

• It looks like Joseph Addai will give it a go this week. I can’t trust him yet, but it does knock Donald Brown down a few notches.

• It looks like Maurice Jones-Drew is out, making Rashard Jennings a sneaky start.

• Mike Sims-Walker will be limited, if he plays at all. He's too risky of a play.

• Andre Johnson is likely to miss this week. Kevin Walter gets bumped up a few notches and Jacoby Jones makes a sleeper play.

 

Also check out

• Week 16 Get ‘em or Don’t Sweat ‘em Waiver Wire Advice
• Week 16 Fantasy QB Rankings
• Week 16 Fantasy TE Rankings
• Week 16 Fantasy K Rankings
• Week 16 Fantasy DEF Rankings
• Week 16 Fantasy IDP Rankings
• Week 16 Start/Sit Advice
• Week 16 Fantasy Sleepers

Titans WR Kenny Britt hauled in six passes for 128 yards (nine targets) in Week 15 vs. Houston and has reestablished himself as the Tennessee wideout to have. One other Titans wideout note: Randy Moss has not been targeted in either of the last two games with Britt back in the lineup.

After going on an ungodly seven-game tear, Chiefs WR Dwayne Bowe has fallen off a cliff the past three weeks, combining for three catches for 56 yards. That has likely cost many owners during the fantasy playoffs, but if you were able to make it to this point, it could be to your benefit to trust in him this week against the Titans. Tennessee is giving up nearly 250 passing yards per game, and K.C. should be able to have success through the air now that QB Matt Cassel is closer to full strength. This should be the contest Bowe bounces back.

Packers WR Greg Jennings has scored seven touchdowns in last six games and has proven to be a viable target when Green Bay needs a score.

Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald caught 9-125 against the Panthers last week and is looking to finally be back to his old self. Fitz should have his way against the Cowboys 28th-ranked pass "D" this Sunday.

Texans WR Kevin Walter has been targeted 10 times in each of the past two games and might not be a bad pickup if you're looking for a No. 3 wideout down the stretch. Houston routinely falls behind in games, and should it fall behind at Denver, it could elect to employ a pass-first attack vs. a Broncos defense that has allowed 25 TD tosses.

The Ravens didn't look much for Ravens WRs Anquan Boldin and Derrick Mason last week vs. New Orleans (two targets apiece), but neither had had so little work this season to that point, and both have good matchups this week vs. a Cleveland pass defense allowing 222.6 yards per game through the air. Boldin caught 8-142-3 in the first matchup vs. Cleveland, with all three TDs vs. CB Eric Wright (currently on injured reserve). Mason also wasn't lacking for opportunities in that earlier meeting, as he was targeted eight times, catching 4-30-0.

Keep an eye on the status of Bengals WR Chad Ochocinco, who was targeted just three times in Week 15 vs. Cleveland and has battled an ankle injury. The Bengals gave young WRs Andre Caldwell and Jerome Simpson more playing time last week and are looking beyond 2010 at the position. Caldwell (six targets / 4-89-0 in Week 15) is the Bengals' wideout to consider picking up if you need to replace T.O. or are worried about Ochocinco.

Browns WR Brian Robiskie accumulated a season-best 82 yards receiving, including a 46-yard TD, on Sunday at Cincinnati. Eighteen of his 38 targets on the season have come in the past four weeks.

One of the major surprises of the fantasy season has been the emergence of Bills WR Stevie Johnson, a former seventh-round pick who started the season as a backup on a run-first team. Johnson needs 57 receiving yards to reach 1,000 on the year and he should be able to accomplish that much on Sunday vs. the Patriots. New England's secondary didn't look great last week against Packers backup QB Matt Flynn and could have trouble slowing down the Ryan Fitzpatrick-to-Johnson combination.

With Austin Collie joining 16 of his teammates on I.R. earlier this week, rookie WR Blair White is an intriguing No. 3 wideout option for your fantasy championship. The club remains very high on White, who becomes Manning's guy in the slot the final two weeks. The Colts travel to Oakland in Week 16, where a solid Raiders pass defense awaits. But with Reggie Wayne seeing double-teams, and Pierre Garcon figuring to also receive more attention than White, it wouldn't be shocking to see the undrafted rookie who has found paydirt four times this season pay off for his owners in crunch time.

Jaguars WR Mike Sims-Walker has caught three TD passes in the past two weeks since returning from a high ankle sprain. While his yardage totals have not been anything to get overly excited about, he has been a consistent red-zone target (seven TDs) for David Garrard, and has a wonderful matchup on Sunday against the 30th-ranked Redskins pass defense, which has allowed 21 TDs through the air. Sims-Walker missed practice on Wednesday, but we don't expect it to affect his chances of starting on Sunday.

Why Indianapolis Could Win: After throwing a very Eli-like 11 interceptions in three games, Peyton Manning has righted the ship these last two games. With a depleted receiving core that's missing Austin Collie and Dallas Clark, Manning threw for 548 yards and four touchdowns over the last three games. If the Colts hope to knock off the Raiders and come one game closer to a playoff bid, they will need to continue to find ways to throw the ball. Nnamdi Asomugha could quiet Reggie Wayne, meaning the pressure will be on Pierre Garcon to produce.

Why Oakland Could Win: For Indy, their Achilles heel always seems to be their rushing defense and this year is no exception. The Colts rank in the NFL's bottom five for rushing yards allowed, while the Raiders have thrived running the ball of late. Last week against Denver, the Raiders rushed for 264 yards. If Darren McFadden and Michael Bush pound the balls against this soft Indy front seven, Oakland will have a good chance at crushing the Colts playoff hopes.

 

Prediction: 27-23 Colts.

Here they are: Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Rankings for Week 16 (2010) to help you decide who to start and who to sit on your fantasy football team. *CHECK POSITIONAL RANKINGS UNDER OUR NAVIGATION BAR ABOVE. WE UPDATE THEM OFTEN, AS NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.
1. Andre Johnson (HOU) - @ TEN + Ankle
2. Roddy White (ATL) - vs. NO
3. Calvin Johnson (DET) - @ MIA + Ankle
4. Marques Colston (NO) - @ ATL
5. Greg Jennings (GB) - vs. NYG
6. Reggie Wayne (IND) - @ OAK
7. Hakeem Nicks (NYG) - @ GB
8. Vincent Jackson (SD) - @ CIN
9. DeSean Jackson (PHI) - vs. MIN + Foot
10. Mike Williams (TB) - vs. SEA
11. Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) - vs. DAL
12. Jeremy Maclin (PHI) - vs. MIN
13. Wes Welker (NE) - @ BUF
14. Miles Austin (DAL) - @ ARI
15. Kenny Britt (TEN) - @ KC
16. Mike Wallace (PIT) - vs. CAR
17. Brandon Lloyd (DEN) - vs. HOU
18. Brandon Marshall (MIA) - vs. DET
19. Dwayne Bowe (KC) - vs. TEN
20. Santana Moss (WAS) - @ JAC
21. Steve Johnson (BUF) - vs. NE
22. Deion Branch (NE) - @ BUF + Knee
23. Pierre Garcon (IND) - @ OAK
24. Anquan Boldin (BAL) - @ CLE
25. Mario Manningham (NYG) - @ GB + Heel
26. Mike Sims-Walker (JAC) - vs. WAS + Ankle
27. Mike Williams (SEA) - @ TB
28. Hines Ward (PIT) - vs. CAR
29. Santonio Holmes (NYJ) - @ CHI + Toe
30. Derrick Mason (BAL) - @ CLE + Ankle
31. Braylon Edwards (NYJ) - @ CHI
32. Johnny Knox (CHI) - vs. NYJ
33. Percy Harvin (MIN) - @ PHI
34. Anthony Armstrong (WAS) - @ JAC
35. David Nelson (BUF) - vs. NE
36. Davone Bess (MIA) - vs. DET
37. Lance Moore (NO) - @ ATL
38. Nate Burleson (DET) - @ MIA
39. Blair White (IND) - @ OAK
40. James Jones (GB) - vs. NYG
41. Sidney Rice (MIN) - @ PHI
42. Michael Crabtree (SF) - @ STL
43. Chad Ochocinco (CIN) - vs. SD + Ankle
44. Earl Bennett (CHI) - vs. NYJ + Ankle
45. Jacoby Ford (OAK) - vs. IND
46. Danny Amendola (STL) - vs. SF
47. Nate Washington (TEN) - @ KC
48. Andre Caldwell (CIN) - vs. SD
49. Jacoby Jones (HOU) - @ DEN
50. Steve Breaston (ARI) - vs. DAL

I apologize, folks, but I likely will not have time to go back and grab screencaps for this week's B^3, holiday travel season and all.  I did, however, want to offer a few thoughts before everyone closes their laptops over the next few days and surrounds themselves with loved ones...and in-laws.

Instead of a traditional breakdown, I want to look at a few random topics, issues, triumphs and concerns that emerged from the Colts' 34-24 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars last Sunday.  This battle for division tiebreakers certainly had a lot of talking points, not the least of which was the officiating.  But we'll get into that a little later.

Before we jump into these talking points, I wanted to wish you all a Merry Christmas or Happy Holidays or whatever the appropriate phrase is these days.  I truly hope you all enjoy your time around family and friends and wear the most hideous sweaters you can find.  No matter what your year has been like -- and I'm more than aware of how rough a year can be -- I hope you at least enjoy being around those who matter most to you for this little stretch of time.

With that said, let's jump ahead and take a look at a few things from last Sunday's game:

1. Yes, the officiating really WAS that bad.  And it was made worse by Dan Dierdorf misinforming the television audience and apparently not understanding critical NFL rules, despite being paid to do so.

Let's start with the unnecessary roughness penalty likely leveraged against Aaron Francisco, but perhaps Antoine Bethea...we'll never know, because Mike Carey couldn't be bothered to specify.

Carey's explanation: "Personal foul, unnecessary roughness, on the defense...a blow to the head, on a defenseless receiver.  15 yard penalty, automatic first down."

Dierdorf's input: "They're calling it a blow to the head, but I don't think they're...I'm assuming it was on Francisco coming in late, even though it wasn't a blow to the head."

Gumbel's objection: "...but you know, the penalty marker almost beat Francisco to it..."

Dierdorf again: "Yeah, so I'm not...I wish he would have identified which player it was against."

So basically, Carey calls an unnecessary roughness penalty for a blow to the head.  Except Mike Thomas' head is never touched on this play.  A penalty flag comes in as Francisco is arriving to help gang tackle, so it's likely not a late hit penalty misidentified as a blow to the head.  It's just a bad call.  Although, to be fair, this crew completely missed Robert Mathis going helmet-to-helmet on David Garrard on the previous drive, which really just serves to demonstrate how bad this crew really was.

It's all amplified by Dierdorf, though, really not knowing what's going on.  He agrees with the penalty, basically, but he's not sure why, because he's not sure who the penalty was called on, or what the penalty really was.  He just agrees.

Let's jump ahead to the mysterious invisible third-down.  With 5:34 left in the first quarter, Maurice Jones-Drew took a shotgun handoff from Garrard and was swarmed by the Colts' defense for maybe a gain of one yard.  Immediately as the defense swarmed, a penalty flag was thrown.  An official huddle ensues.  How many of these did we see Sunday?  Far too many.

Here's the official explanation:

Carey's explanation: There is no foul on the play, therefore no play.  Third down.  Replay third down.

Gumbel: Well...I've got to say, that's most surprising that that's gonna come, that's gonna cause a replay of third down.  I thought the penalty marker flew after the ball was snapped.

Dierdorf: Well Mike Carey is insinuating, or what he's saying is that the whistle blew and there was no play.  This is very rare to see something like this, where you see a play play all the way out and then you're told it didn't count...well Mike Carey again just said no foul on the play, we're replaying third down.  Well, I'm perplexed.

Actually, no hate for Dierdorf here.  I was similarly perplexed.  I have a laundry list of issues with this series of events.  Now, if any of you read yesterday's Polian Corner, you know that Polian believes the play was blown dead prior to the snap and that's why Jacksonville was essentially granted two 3rd-and-4s (one of which didn't count.)

Okay, then why was a flag thrown post-snap?  If that's the case, then not all officials knew the play was blown dead.  And that raises questions about what the flag was.  Most folks believe the flag was thrown on Jacksonville LT Eugene Monroe for a false start, which is actually a pre-snap penalty.  If that's the case, and that flag really couldn't have been anything else, it should have marched the Jags back five yards.  Except after discussion, Carey decides that there was no pre-snap penalty...how he came to that conclusion is beyond me, as the wing judge obviously thought it necessary to throw a flag.  Unless he unleashed a sneeze that would shake the heavens above, I doubt his flag dislodged itself from his pocket and threw itself out there.  Obviously it was thrown for a reason.  How did the officials come to disregard it?

I also have a huge problem with this play being run with no real sign of protest from the officials, even if the crowd noise prevented the whistles from being heard if indeed anyone blew their whistle.  It seems like the only thing the league has talked about this year is player safety, so what message does it send to fans if league officials allow a meaningless play to begin, develop and terminate in a tackle?  What if Jones-Drew had been hurt on that play?  What if Dwight Freeney had sprained his ankle?  For all talk the NFL does on behalf of player safety, they sure don't back it up on the field consistently.

Obviously, this no play or invisible play as I'm calling it allowed the Jags to extend their drive and put three points on the board.  But as a flag was thrown, either there was a penalty or there wasn't.  If there was, the Jaguars should have been assessed the appropriate penalty yardage.  If there wasn't, the play shouldn't have been blown dead.  I'm shocked the officials didn't uphold the penalty, if nothing else to save face and avoid the awkwardness of having a play that didn't really count.  The refs were clearly in the wrong here.

So as not to dwell on the topic too long, let's take a look at Thomas' controversial 78-yard punt return touchdown.

Dierdorf: You know, Greg, this crowd is really unhappy.  The more they look at it, the unhappier they get.  But in reality, that was not a fair catch signal.

Gumbel: The more we look at it, the more we're convinced that the Colts kinda duped themselves into thinking it was a fair catch.

Dierdorf: If they did, that was their mistake and I guarantee you every special teams coach in the league this week is gonna pay a little more attention to just that scenario.  But that was a wave...you gotta put the arm straight up over your head, wave it vigorously, identify that you're making the fair catch, and that was far from it.

Dierdorf spawned a huge misconception here and apparently CBS producers were unable to correct him.  Yes, Dan, to signal for a valid fair catch, a player must put his arm above his head and wave it.  But a player can also signal an invalid fair catch, prompting a five yard penalty from the spot of the signal, and that has a different set of rules:

Item 2: Invalid Fair-Catch Signal.

If a player raises his hand(s) above his shoulder(s) in any other manner, it is an invalid fair-catch signal. If there is an invalid fair-catch signal, the ball is dead when caught or recovered by any player of the receiving team, but it is not a fair catch. (The ball is not dead if it touches an opponent before or after it strikes the ground. See Article 3b).  Note: A fair-catch signal given behind the line of scrimmage on a scrimmage kick is ignored and is neither valid nor invalid.

Penalty: For an invalid fair-catch signal: Loss of five yards from the spot of the signal.

So to make a valid fair catch, a player must wave his arm above his head.  But a player can also make an invalid fair catch, and this rule was put in place to prevent returners from giving ambiguous signals to slow the coverage team or disinterest them from making the tackle completely.  The question, then, is whether Thomas raised his hand above his shoulder.

Looks pretty clear to me that Thomas' hand is well above his shoulder.  It's at least to his facemask.  As a returner, you are not allowed to raise your hand above shoulder level unless you are making a fair catch, in which case you have to raise your arm above your head to make the fair catch.  Anything else is ambiguous and should be penalized.  It doesn't matter why Thomas' hand was above his shoulder, just that it was.  I've seen some Jaguars fans try to excuse it as Thomas attempting to catch his balance, but even if that was the case (and clearly it's not, at least in any realm of reality), it doesn't matter.  The zone between the shoulders and helmet could essentially be re-named the "invalid fair catch zone."  Or maybe now, the "Mike Thomas zone."

Nice of Thomas to return it, flip into the endzone and taunt fans though.  Gee, who will ever remember Devin Hester in the annals of history when you've got a guy like Thomas around, gifted a touchdown by an incompetent officiating crew?

The officials did a terrible job on Sunday, and while I thought their officiating overall favored the Jaguars, certainly calls went against Jacksonville too, like the aforementioned no-call on Mathis' helmet-to-helmet hit.  I'm not going to feature these calls, obviously, as it's a Colts blog and coverage is Colts-centered.  But Jacksonville was hit or not hit with a few iffy penalties as well, and with a game of this magnitude, bad officiating is simply inexcusable.  The way I see it, the officials essentially gifted Jacksonville 10 first half points (three on a drive that should have never continued due to a phantom third down, seven on a punt return that should have never counted due to an invalid fair catch signal.)  Again, in a game of this importance, there is no reason the refs should be huddling every drive, missing obvious calls or dismissing plays entirely.  Fans of both teams should be enraged by the effort put forth by Carey's crew last Sunday.

As a final point on the issue, announcers like Dierdorf perpetuate misinformation and do more harm than good.  Perhaps more dubious than Dierdorf are the CBS producers who didn't properly research the fair catch rule and inform him that he was babbling nonsense into the microphone.  There are fact-checkers for a reason.  CBS would be wise to use them.

2.  Daryl Smith's hit on Austin Collie was not malicious or designed, but just a terribly unfortunate incident.  Similarly, Peyton Manning's throw did not lead Collie into a collision.

I've seen some discussion amongst Colts fans regarding the intent of Smith's hit that concussed Collie.  Believe me, I hate the Jaguars.  I know it's easy to assume that every one of their players is a murderous, thieving, firebreathing scumbag on a mission to climb through your windows and snatch your people up.  But nothing I've seen on the hit suggests that Smith was trying to do anything more than his job: dislodge the ball from Collie.

Smith unfortunately gets Collie as Collie is attempting to go down to avoid a helmet-to-helmet hit like he experienced in the Eagles game.  There is nothing Smith can do about this.  He is just coming in to make a play on the ball, which by all appearances Collie is going to catch, and is coming in full force as Collie is diving toward the turf to avoid a collision.  I think Smith is as surprised as anyone that Collie gets low as quickly as he does and sort of twists his body as well.  You can tell Collie was seeking sanctuary by trying to go down there and Smith is just looking to make a play in the Jaguars' porous secondary.  The unfortunate result of these two things is a collision that leaves Collie concussed and eventually sends him to IR.

It's also been suggested that Manning should have never thrown this ball, that he led Collie into the collision, but I just don't see that.  It's a great throw.  Collie beats the corner and the safety is well over top, Manning puts the ball low where only Collie can make a play on it and where Collie can quickly get down to avoid a big hit and continue the drive.  I think Manning does misjudge the speed at which Smith is coming in, but it's unrealistic to expect Manning to calculate that.  He correctly made a read on the corner and safety and put the ball in a good place for Collie to make a catch and get down.  Smith makes an outstanding individual effort to peel off his zone and display defensive back speed as a linebacker.  If Smith doesn't get there, it's a clean catch.  Even if Smith gets there and doesn't have the awkward meeting with Collie as Collie is going down, it's probably a catch and a smack or an incomplete pass. 

But I really don't think Manning leads Collie into anything.  Collie had almost caught the ball when he was hit, and usually when a QB leads a WR into a hit, he places a ball in a position where the receiver can either be sandwiched by a corner and a safety or otherwise is forced to take a head-on collision with a defensive back charging over top.  Here, Manning just makes an incredibly difficult throw that should theoretically put Collie in good position to make a catch and go down.  It just doesn't end that way, because that's the way this season has gone.

3.  Stunting was great for disrupting the Jags' run game.  It wasn't so great, however, on obvious passing downs.

I don't know how many of you noticed, but Dwight Freeney may have played his best game of the season last Sunday.  Yes, even without a sack.  He absolutely owned Monroe.  It was an All-Pro performance, no doubt.  Bull rushes.  Spin moves.  Great angles.  Great leverage.  Domination in the run game.  Even live at the game, where I am usually too emotionally-invested to appreciate individual matchups, I could see what Freeney was doing.  Chances are, when he ends up enshrined in Canton, no one will ever talk about this game.  But I'm telling you, it was one of his best.  He took the edge rush to a new level.

And credit goes to the Colts' defensive line, really, for playing a great game across the board.  Fili Moala probably put together his best Colt performance in particular.  Dan Muir and Antonio Johnson were stalwarts all day.  Eric Foster made some noise.  It was a beautiful performance by the defensive line, and one that complicated what the Jaguars were attempting to do.  Credit John Teerlinck and Larry Coyer for working in tandem to design a scheme that locked down Jones-Drew:

"[The Colts] did a lot of passing stunts on running downs," said Jaguars guard Uche Nwaneri. "A lot of guys cross-slanting at the line of scrimmage. There wasn’t much of an opportunity to [physically] get on them. It was crazy."

The Jaguars were obviously unprepared for the way the Colts' defensive line played this game, and it cost them a running attack.  For that, I applaud the coaching staff.  Jim Caldwell challenged the defense in particular to rise up for this game, and they did.  Coaches innovated and came up with creative ways to shut down the Jacksonville running attack.  In that regard, coaching decisions were magnificent.

But when the Colts had the Jaguars in obvious pass situations, they still stunted.  And stunted.  And stunted.  As you all know, I'm not a huge fan of stunts to generate pass rush.  The Colts were destroying the Jaguars' pass protection with vanilla edge rushes.  Why go away from that?  Stunts hinder the Colts' pass rush.  And while they might be fine in ambiguous run-pass situations, 3rd-and-8 is not an ideal time to use one when your edge rush is working just fine.  I don't understand why the Colts kept going to stunts on obvious pass situations when Jones-Drew was not a factor as a runner.  They had the Jaguars right where they wanted them...and then gave up their ultra-effective edge rush.  I don't understand it at all.

The Colts wanted to force Garrard to pass the ball by shutting down Jones-Drew.  They did that.  But then they failed to put their best pass-rushers in a position to make Garrard pay for his dropbacks, and to me, for as well-coached as the defensive line was against the run last Sunday, it was poorly-coached against the pass.

4.  Having Gary Brackett back and healthy makes a BIG difference.

Most will, of course, point to Brackett's tackle of Jones-Drew two yards in the backfield on the Colts' goal-line stand that left the Jaguars with three points instead of seven.  But Brackett was all over the field on Sunday.  And his biggest impact, believe it or not, might not have even been his play between the whistles, but his leadership before and after them.

The Colts' defense communicated a lot more than we've seen at any point this season.  Defensive ends communicated with linebackers, linebackers with defensive tackles, safeties with linebackers.  Jones-Drew indicated that the Colts filled every gap, every time, and I have to believe a lot of that is due to the defense's quarterback being back and healthy.  For as much field as Brackett covered during plays, he was just as active calling out defenses, making adjustments and setting players up for success beforehand.  The Colts have looked leaky against the run on more than a few occasions this year, mostly all a result of Colt defenders not properly filling a gap and giving the RB nowhere to go.  Brackett ensured that everyone was where they needed to be pre-snap and post-snap, and you can't discount the effect that had on the defense's performance.

Brackett allows for more defensive flexibility, which might be his greatest asset.  Pat Angerer did an admirable job filling in for Brackett while the defensive captain was injured, but my guess is that Angerer was extremely limited in his defensive playcalling ability.  The Colts probably just ran whatever vanilla playcall Coyer was able to relay to the rookie linebacker.  But Brackett allows for adjustment, and Brackett can see things Angerer doesn't necessarily notice at this point in his career.  I'm not trying to knock Angerer, he's a fine SAM who will probably be a good MIKE when Brackett nears the end of his career and Angerer knows the defense better.  But right now, there is no substitute for experience, and Brackett has shown once again, as if we ever forgot, that he is irreplaceable.  Or at least until Angerer logs a few more years.

5.  For as well as the defense played most of the game, they still did not execute well in the clutch, and this is perhaps becoming an area of concern.

Don't get me wrong, the defense was awesome for most of the day.  As I said, the officials essentially gifted the Jaguars 10 points, none of which the defense should really be accountable for.  They shut down Jones-Drew, held him under 50 yards.  They'd never held him under 100 yards in any previous meeting.  That's not just good.  That's spectacular.

But, as they did against the Cowboys, the defense let the opposition back in the game.  They failed to seal the deal.  With Jacksonville down by 10 points with 3:21 remaining the game, the Colts' defense allowed the Jaguars to drive the field and score, largely due to an overly-conservative defense.  The defensive scheme wasn't entirely dissimilar to the one employed against the Cowboys which let Jon Kitna drive Dallas to a go-ahead touchdown with minutes remaining that the Colts had to eventually tie to force overtime.

I only mention this because we might be seeing a trend here.  The Colts have been content to sit back in coverage on this drives, which isn't atypical for a Colt defense.  But they've been failing to step up in the red zone, which is extremely atypical.  As mgrex03 wrote this week:

For the second week in a row, the defense did struggle in the Red Zone.  They've been so good all year, I hope they can get back to their first 12 game form for the home stretch of the schedule.

The Colts' defense has struggled in the red zone for two consecutive weeks and also let the Cowboys drive over them when they needed to buckle down most (The Eight Point drive.)  I don't like the direction this is trending.  It seems like, recently, the defense plays well for most of the game and then either lets the opposition back in it or lets the opposition threaten to get back in it.

Part of it is philosophy.  As I said earlier, the Colts' edge rush was destroying the Jaguars' pass protection all day.  Garrard only had seconds to throw.  As such, the Colts should not have given the cushion they did at the end.  Their scheme was a little too conservative considering the success they were having with Freeney and Mathis on edge rushes.  Now, couple that cushion with passing situation stunts that took away the pass rush, and I really don't understand what the defensive coaches thought they were doing or thought they had in terms of a fourth quarter gameplan.  If I'm Coyer, I bring my corners a little closer to the receivers, focus linebacker coverage on the tight end and let my edge rush do its work.  This isn't calling for Justin Tryon or Jacob Lacey to press or jam receivers, it's just calling for them to play a little closer than 8-10 yards off.  That kind of cushion negates even the best pass rush, and then of course passing down stunts negate any pass rush at all.

Simply put: I think the defense, from a schematic viewpoint, is counterproductive at times.  Sometimes, you have to see a weakness and go for the kill.  Coyer seems content just to not die, if that makes any sense.

6.  The Colts figured out how to use Donald Brown, receivers are proving to be very good blockers and we saw a little too much Dominic Rhodes.

It only took 3/4ths of the season, but the Colts figured out how to use Brown.  He's not a great blocker.  He's not a bulldozer.  He is, however, dangerous in the open field with a little help from blockers.  So finally, the Colts ran some plays to take advantage of that.

Brown excelled primarily between the tackles, as much as that stretch play might lead you to believe that he ran better outside.  The Colts ran a number of traps and delays for Brown, running plays considered typically 'finesse' in nature.  These blocking schemes opened up huge holes in the Jaguars' defensive front for Brown to sprint through and enter the second level.  And from there, my suspicions were confirmed: the Colts block really well at the second level.  I've always compared Pierre Garcon to Hines Ward...not that he's anywhere near Ward's level, just that he's extremely physical, a great downfield blocker and willing to scrap.  Jacob Tamme showed a little something in his downfield blocking, too.  And most impressively, offensive linemen were able to hustle downfield and make plays.  The effort displayed by guys like Charlie Johnson, Kyle DeVan and Mike Pollak was tremendous.

The Colts went away from those running plays in the second half because the Jaguars switched to a base, three-linebacker defense in Collie's absence.  Whereas draws, delays and traps are easy to run against nickel packages, they are decidedly more difficult to execute when an extra linebacker in is in the play.  I think the Colts then should have gone to Brown more as a receiver, forced a linebacker to make a play on him one-on-one in coverage, and they tried to at points but were ultimately unsuccessful.  It's a shame, too, because Brown has been ridiculously productive as a receiver out the backfield this season and really for his young career.

It was nice to see Brown run with some confidence, too.  Even on those plays that didn't generate 45+ yards, Brown was running with a little extra oomph between the tackles.  He moved piles, churned out extra yards, did the things we've been praising Joseph Addai and Mike Hart for all year long.  Brown is a back that needs carries, needs confidence and certainly needs blocking and correlated success in order to do well.  If you just give him a handful of carries against a loaded defensive front and behind a shoddy offensive line, Brown -- like most NFL backs -- will fair poorly.  Utilize him well, though, and Brown will run even some of the weaker plays in his arsenal with much more confidence.

As a final note on the run game, Rhodes played too many snaps for my liking.  Other than a handful of carries, he wasn't remarkably effective.  Rhodes is a great guy to have in the locker room and is a solid cog in an offense that relies on familiarity.  But 2010 Rhodes isn't the same as 2006 Rhodes.  He struggled on several runs last Sunday and wasn't particularly effective in his time on the field.  He's a good blocker and a decent receiver, which helps, but I think you could have taken away maybe 5-10 of Rhodes' snaps and split them up between Brown and Javarris James.

7.  It's about time to write that flanker screen out of the playbook.

Unless any of you really enjoy seeing Wayne and Garcon fight to get back to the original line-of-scrimmage.  Maybe that play works three years ago, or heck, even three months ago when the Colts had a plethora of weapons.  Now, with defenses focusing on the outside receivers, it really doesn't work and the Colts are lucky to avoid a loss on that play.

They're not really running it to set up much either.  Rarely -- if ever -- will you see Manning pump fake to the flanker screen while the outside receiver releases deep, leaving an overzealous corner in his wake.  It's just an ineffective play that doesn't do much for setting up other plays.  The Colts are running out of weapons to run it anyway, and even if they had them, I don't think it's really worked to great effect since Garcon's game-winning touchdown against the Dolphins in Week 2 of the 2009 season.

I, for one, wouldn't be sad if that play was written out of the playbook this year.

8.  When Kelvin Hayden returns, Justin Tryon should start at the other corner position, not Jacob Lacey.

I think Tryon has proven himself a more consistent, more impactful player than Lacey this year.  I'd say their tackling skills are about even, but Tryon has made far more plays in coverage.  I just like Tryon as a corner better.  I have all season.  He gives more cushion than Lacey but has much better closing speed.  His ball skills are also uncanny.  I'm not saying he'll be a lockdown corner in this league any time soon, but for right now, I think he's a better play than Lacey.

You could argue that Lacey knows the defense better, has been around longer and has more chemistry with the rest of the squad.  I could argue that despite that chemistry, Lacey has found himself lagging in coverage an awful lot this season.

9.  Not all mid-to-late season free agent signings are garbage.

True story: Tyjuan Hagler has had a bigger impact on this season than Bob Sanders.  Taj Smith has had a bigger impact on this season than Anthony Gonzalez.

I don't know why the Colts failed to bring Hagler in earlier than they did, but he's proven to be a solid pickup thus far.  I'm sure that doesn't surprise many folks who follow the Colts; when healthy, Hagler has always been a solid player.  Smith has been an instant impact to special teams, whether through luck or skill.  He's always in the right place at the right time and has brought energy and playmaking ability to an oft-maligned unit.

Sure, nobody gets excited when the Colts sign a David Pender or Al Aflava to their active roster.  But not all late pickups are garbage.  Some will be relied on to make plays, and some will make plays on their own.

10.  Pat McAfee hasn't been Pat McAfee since his suspension.

He's look a bit off, granted he's a good enough player where "a bit off" is still on par with an average NFL punter's performance.  But McAfee, for my money, is one of the better punters in this league when he's on his A-game.  He just hasn't been consistently on an A-game since his suspension.

Last Sunday may have been his worst performance of the season.  He only averaged 22.7 yards per punt, compared to Adam Podlesh's 47.3 yards per punt.  His touchbacks have been down considerably post-suspension.  It just seems that his overall game, for whatever reason, has faltered since the infamous canal dive.

I'm not trying to rag on McAfee too hard here.  I know he can be a very good punter.  He's a fun guy, great to fans, accessible, etc.  But the fact remains that his play has fallen off, for whatever reason, since his suspension.  I don't think he would argue that.  We've seen that punters and good field position can make the difference between winning and losing a playoff game, just as Mike Scifres.  So should the Colts be lucky enough to make the postseason, McAfee will need to step his game up a bit.

 

 

 

  QB Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts will head to the Oakland Raiders Coliseum to battle a team that is fighting for glory and honor. The Oakland Raiders have totally shocked AFC West rivals by defeating them one by one to maintain a perfect 5-0 record in the West.  Peyton Manning and his Colts will attempt to take the Oakland Raiders out of playoff contention this Sunday but they will fail. Raiders! Prepare for glory!

  In a turn around 2010 season, the Silver and Black attack of the Oakland Raiders has been phenomenal ! The Oakland Raiders defensive front has been able to pierce through offensive fronts and sack QBs, get safeties, and rush  QBs so that they throw horribly.

  Can the Silver and Black attack break down the Indianapolis Colts? Lets look and see what the Oakland Raiders can expect from this worthy adversary. To begin with, the Colts have already defeated the Chiefs and the Broncos but lost to the San Diego Chargers 36-14, making them 2-1 against the division.QB Peyton Manning has a 92.1 QB rating as he has thrown for 4173 yards and made 28 TDs'. The Indianapolis Colts roster is quite similar to the Silver and Black in that every player is solid.

  The Indianapolis Colts are currently 8-6 while the Raiders are 7-7 and still in the "hunt". Although the Colts have a decent team they are not the Oakland Raiders. The Silver and Black have much more at stake and when it comes to overall toughness, the Raiders attack is lead by Richard Seymour and Tommy Kelly. Both have had an amazing season and led the charge to victories for the Silver and Black.

  On the road the Indianapolis Colts have lost five games and won only one. The Colts seem to have a tough time of winning when they are not at home and traveling all the way to the West Coast will prove to be disastrous, as the Silver in Black improve from week to week.

 Although the Colts have a decent running game with RB's Donald Brown and Javarris James, they  will have a tough time getting through a defensive front that has learned from past and pounded these RB's into concussions.

 Should Brown and James try to get into holes and  get past the front four they will meet an unkind demise at the hands of  Rolando McClain. Rolando McClain is a fierce LB with fire in his heart and enough natural power to pound away a the spirit of the running attack leaving only Peyton Mannings passing attack. A potent passing attack that must be addressed.

 WR's Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie ( may not play  because of concussion) and Pierre Garcon will have to clear themselves from pro bowl CB Nnamndi Asomugha. Asomugha is the best shut down CB in the NFL. The secondary of the Raiders will have to step up their game Sunday but should the defensive front become successful, then we can expect turnovers and shorter passes from Peyton. Newbies such as Mike Mitchell and Tyvon Branch should post some great fantasy numbers Sunday.

 The huge factor will be the Oakland Raiders, "weapon X", a.k.a. RB Darren McFadden. The former Arkansas Razorback star has not only posted over 1000 yards this season, he has punished anyone that attempts to tackle him. If you are not punished by his running hits then chances are , you have been burned by his elusive running.

  Darren McFadden has 7 TD this season and averages 5.2 yards per carry. It will be Darren McFadden that puts the bullet into the broken Colts as Tom Cable will utilize time management and run all three backs. Yes, Marcel Reece and Michael Bush are also part of the magnificent backfield that Al Davis has created. Last week Michael Bush posted 2 TDs in the Red Zone and should have no problem running the Colts into the ground.

 Lets not forget about the Oakland Raiders vertical game. WRs Jacoby Ford and Louis Murphy are fast and seem to get open when the need arises. TE Zach Miller is another  target for QB Jason Campbell while FB Marcel Reece has been huge fro the Raiders. Marcel Reece has great hands and defenses are usually sleeping when Reece break in to the flat to get that TD.

 Overall the teams are matched at players and as we all know it is desire and heart that wins football games. It is turnovers that lose them. The Oakland Raiders special teams has performed well with turnover hits. Jacoby Ford seems to start almost every game with a kick return for the TD.This Sunday however the Raider can ill afford to have the turnovers they had against the Broncos last week. The Colts are a much better team than the Broncos and yet the Broncos scored off the turnovers. This must not be repeated week 15.

 There's a possibility that it will be raining in Oakland that week, so expect a lot of running from both sides of the ball.

  The Raiders should be able to take the Colts at home 38 - 28.

The Colts announced today that Austin Collie is done for the year after being placed on IR.

Collie sustained his second concussion of the year in a collision with Jaguar's defensive back Darryl Smith in Sunday's game.

This really hurts the Colts, because it is obvious that Collie is one of Peyton Manning's favorite targets. And despite missing quite a few games this year he still managed to have a fairly productive year catching 58 passes for 649 yards, along with eight touchdowns.

His absence will put more pressure on Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon to carry the load, along with fill in players like Jacob Tamme and Blair White.

Peyton Manning and the Colts offense will certainly suffer from Collie being gone, just look at the comparison between games where Collie played and the ones he didn't.

In the five games missed by Collie so far, Manning combined to throw eight touchdowns and eight interceptions, in the nine games Collie played, Manning threw only seven interceptions and 20 touchdowns. Take from that what you will.

The Colts IR list continues to grow, now including Collie, Dallas Clark, Bob Sanders, Jerraud Powers, among others.

I think that the Colts will still make the playoffs, but their chance of success in the playoffs seems to be waning as the season wears on.

And the NFL wants to go to an 18 game season, ha.

Keep up with all the Colts news at my blog, #18 and the Colts

Yeah, been been a little lax in getting you the Sprint game ball posts. Apologies. We were busy working on other Colts-related content that, in our minds, was more important. Also, during last week, we had a few, shall we say, interesting moments with some Jaguars fans and writers.

But, now that all that is settled, here are the game balls, voted by all of you, for Weeks Thirteen, Fourteen, and Fifteen.

Week Thirteen: Special teams player Taj Smith- blocked punt for a TD, forced fumble

Week Fourteen: Wide receiver Pierre Garcon- 6 catches, 93 yards, 2 TDs*

Week Fifteen: Wide receiver Austin Collie- 8 catches, 87 yards, 2 TDs

*The Week Fourteen voting produced an amazing result. Pierre Garcon won the game ball by only one single vote. Garcon received 695 685 votes while quarterback Peyton Manning (who had 319 yards and 2 TDs that week) earned 684. Never seen that happen here at Stampede Blue.

Now that the fantasy playoffs are here, the Fantasy Doctor will be making regular house calls, answering readers' fantasy questions each Wednesday and Thursday. Send your questions to the Doc at fantasydoctor@pfwmedia.com.

Hey Doc,
Got a quick question for you and would appreciate some advice. I'm in my league's Super Bowl and I've got to choose two of these three players at wide receiver: Brandon Marshall, Pierre Garcon and Brandon Lloyd. I'm looking at starting Marshall at home against Detroit and Garcon against Oakland, thinking Lloyd's production will be way down with Tim Tebow at QB and Denver not throwing as much. Is this sound thinking? Would you advise something different for my lineup? Thanks for any perspective or advice you can give.

— Steve, Lino Lakes, Minn.

Well, Steve, that does sound like a sensible thought, but this call is a very close one.

Considering the way he has played lately and his matchup with the Lions, Marshall is a definite play. He has found paydirt in each of his last two games and is facing a Detroit team that can be beat through the air. It's the other decision that's a tough one.

As tempting as it is to start Lloyd against the league's worst pass defense in the Texans, I just can't recommend it with Tebow at QB. The rookie did look decent last week, but he threw only 16 passes all game in a very conservative game plan. The Broncos could open up the playbook a bit more this Sunday, but whether they do is anybody's guess. With the season on the line, Lloyd is simply too risky for my liking.

Garcon, meanwhile, isn't a spectacular option, but he's much more enticing with Austin Collie out. Garcon did score two TDs vs. the Titans in Week 14, and the Raiders have allowed 26 TD tosses on the year. He might not see an abundance of targets, but the Colts' No. 2 is a fairly safe fantasy start this week.

I'm one game away from making it to the Promised Land with plenty of no-brainers on my roster. The dilemma is I have Matt Schaub and Jon Kitna to choose from at QB, as my opponent has someone to offset each of my slingers in Andre Johnson and Jason Witten. Which QB should I be putting behind the wheel?

— Dan, Worcester, Mass.

I wouldn't worry too much about who your opponent has, Dan, as there's no way you can do anything about that. All you can do is start the players who give you the best chance to win.

This week for you at QB, I think that guy is Schaub. After hitting a midseason rough patch, the Texans' signalcaller is suddenly one of the league's hotter QBs. Over his last three games, Schaub has racked up an eye-popping 152 pass attempts for 1,055 yards and seven TDs. That's a ridiculous pace that's reminding owners of the '09 version of Schaub. As long as he's slinging the ball 50 times a game, he surely belongs in lineups against a Broncos pass defense that has given up 25 TDs this season. He could have a monster day.

It's not like Kitna is a bad play this week against a Cards "D" that has been terrible, but he doesn't have the massive upside that Schaub does. He'll be good, but the Cowboys should be in a position where they won't have to chuck the ball all night long.

Here are the Week 16 fantasy rankings for wide receivers:

1. DeSean Jackson, Eagles vs. Vikings
2. Andre Johnson, Texans at Broncos
3. Roddy White, Falcons vs. Saints
4. Calvin Johnson, Lions at Dolphins
5. Reggie Wayne, Colts at Raiders
6. Jeremy Maclin, Eagles vs. Vikings
7. Greg Jennings, Packers vs. Giants
8. Brandon Marshall, Dolphins vs. Lions
9. Vincent Jackson, Chargers at Bengals
10. Kenny Britt, Titans at Chiefs
11. Marques Colston, Saints at Falcons
12. Wes Welker, Patriots at Bills
13. Mike Wallace, Steelers vs. Panthers
14. Mike Williams, Buccaneers vs. Seahawks
15. Brandon Lloyd, Broncos at Texans
16. Hakeem Nicks, Giants at Packers
17. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs vs. Titans
18. Deion Branch, Patriots at Bills
19. Stevie Johnson, Bills vs. Patriots
20. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals vs. Cowboys
21. Miles Austin, Cowboys at Cardinals
22. Santana Moss, Redskins at Jaguars
23. Pierre Garcon, Colts at Raiders
24. Mike Sims-Walker, Jaguars vs. Redskins
25. Anquan Boldin, Ravens at Browns
26. Santonio Holmes, Jets at Bears
27. Davone Bess, Dolphins vs. Lions
28. Lance Moore, Saints at Falcons
29. Kevin Walter, Texans at Broncos
30. Derrick Mason, Ravens at Browns
31. Blair White, Colts at Raiders
32. Mike Williams, Seahawks at Buccaneers
33. Anthony Armstrong, Redskins at Jaguars
34. Hines Ward, Steelers vs. Panthers
35. Malcom Floyd, Chargers at Bengals — INJ
36. Arrelious Benn, Buccaneers vs. Seahawks
37. Braylon Edwards, Jets at Bears
38. Johnny Knox, Bears vs. Jets
39. Jacoby Jones, Texans vs. Broncos
40. Mario Manningham, Giants at Packers
41. Mike Thomas, Jaguars vs. Redskins
42. Robert Meachem, Saints at Falcons
43. Jacoby Ford, Raiders vs. Colts
44. James Jones, Packers vs. Giants
45. Chad Ochocinco, Bengals vs. Chargers
46. Donald Driver, Packers vs. Giants
47. Ben Obomanu, Seahawks at Buccaneers
48. Steve Breaston, Cardinals vs. Cowboys
49. Josh Morgan, 49ers at Rams
50. Michael Crabtree, 49ers at Rams
51. Sidney Rice, Vikings at Eagles
52. David Nelson, Bills vs. Patriots
53. Danny Amendola, Rams vs. 49ers
54. Nate Burleson, Lions at Dolphins
55. Jabar Gaffney, Broncos at Texans
56. Earl Bennett, Bears vs. Jets
57. Nate Washington, Titans at Chiefs
58. Devin Hester, Bears vs. Jets
59. Louis Murphy, Raiders vs. Colts
60. Brian Robiskie, Browns vs. Ravens
61. Michael Jenkins, Falcons vs. Saints
62. Percy Harvin, Vikings at Eagles
63. Brandon Gibson, Rams vs. 49ers
64. Emmanuel Sanders, Steelers vs. Panthers
65. Jordan Shipley, Bengals vs. Chargers
66. Eddie Royal, Broncos at Texans
67. Brandon Tate, Patriots at Bills
68. Mohamed Massaquoi, Browns vs. Ravens
69. Andre Caldwell, Bengals vs. Chargers
70. Devery Henderson, Saints at Falcons
71. Sam Hurd, Cowboys at Cardinals
72. Steve Smith, Panthers at Steelers
73. Justin Gage, Titans at Chiefs
74. Kelley Washington, Chargers at Bengals
75. Dexter McCluster, Chiefs vs. Titans
76. Laurent Robinson, Rams vs. 49ers
77. Brandon LaFell, Panthers at Steelers
78. Derek Hagan, Giants at Packers
79. Roy Williams, Cowboys at Cardinals — INJ
80. Jason Avant, Eagles at Vikings — INJ

Not listed: Austin Collie, Colts; Patrick Crayton, Chargers; Terrell Owens, Bengals; Demaryius Thomas, Broncos

 

The above player rankings are based on expectations for this week only, not for the entire season, taking into account this week's specific matchups and injuries. The initial rankings are compiled before the release of the NFL's early injury report and are updated Thursday to reflect the status of each player.

We base our rankings on the following scoring system: For skill-position players, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards, one point for every 30 passing yards, six points for a TD run or catch, four points for a TD pass, two points for a two-point conversion run or catch, two points for a two-point conversion pass. For kickers, three points for FGs of 18-39 yards, four points for FGs of 40-49 yards, and five points for FGs of 50-plus yards. Defensive rankings are based primarily on points allowed, yardage allowed and sack potential.

Glossary of notations

INJ — player has an injury that may affect productivity or availability.
ILL — player has an illness that may affect productivity or availability.
UP — player was moved up on draft board after original posting.
DOWN — player was moved down on draft board after original posting.
Not listed — player is temporarily sidelined due to injury or suspension but otherwise would be ranked.
ACTIVE — on game day, player has been designated active (posted shortly before kickoff, when available).
INACTIVE — on game day, player has been designated inactive (posted shortly before kickoff, when available).

Players and/or notations added after the original posting are shown in boldface.

Note: Remember to check back for late-week and weekend updates, as well as game inactives (when available) in the 90 minutes preceding the 1 p.m. Sunday kickoffs. You'll also find regular updates in Michael Blunda's fantasy report on Sunday mornings.

Long time listener first time caller...

Had my second round playoff game yesterday against the commisioner (a good friend) and I noticed some foul play. Had my kids baptism at the same time as the games so I texted him asking him to give me updates of our scores. When I had a chance to check scores I saw that I was in trouble and that he started rice, mcfadden, and charles and benched hillis which seemed seemed a bit off so I checked his line up changes. According to the log while logged in as commisioner made 3 lineup changes during the games. his starting lineup was...

Manning, Peyton IND QB, Charles, Jamaal KCC RB, Hillis, Peyton CLE RB, McFadden, Darren OAK RB, Britt, Kenny TEN WR, Garcon, Pierre IND WR, Davis, Vernon SFO TE, Graham, Shayne NEP PK, Patriots, New England NEP Def

and after some changes he ended the day with a winning team of...

Manning, Peyton IND QB, Charles, Jamaal KCC RB, McFadden, Darren OAK RB, Rice, Ray BAL RB, Britt, Kenny TEN WR, Williams, Mike TBB WR, Davis, Vernon SFO TE, Graham, Shayne NEP PK, Patriots, New England NEP Def

how have you guys handled these kind of situations? this league is a no money league made up of friends and we have been playing for 6 years now. i don't want to blow up the league but this would have been my first trip to the big game and it doesn't sound that fun to play when you know strings are being pulled.

Just two stats tell you all you need to know about this game.

155 rushing yards gained.

67 rushing yards allowed.

Prior to yesterday's 34-24 victory by the Indianapolis Colts over the Jacksonville Jaguars, pretty much all of us would have said the stat lines above were for the Jaguars offense and defense, respectively. But as annoying and obnoxious as he has become, ESPN's Chris Berman's schitky line, 'THAT'S why they play the games!' could not be more true this morning.

While David's article yesterday covered many of the key elements of the win, for me it was the most complete game this season for the Colts. This was the team that we all expected to see in 2010. It finally showed up. For me, this game was better than the Week Two blowout against the New York Giants. In that game, the Colts simply took advantage of an awful Giants game plan.

In this game, the Colts physically dominated the Jaguars, a team built to 'out-physical' the Colts.

Like many of you, I was thinking, Where was this two weeks ago? Three weeks ago! Back when the Chargers and Cowboys were imposing their wills on the Colts in devastating fashion at Lucas Oil Stadium. While injuries, poor management decisions, and some questionable coaching have all played significant roles in the Colts entering December fighting for their playoff lives, today the 'question players,' the under-achievers who have failed to live up to their stock all season, finally showed up and made a big difference.

After the jump, my general observations...

• The obvious 'breakout' performance was Donald Brown's. There is no way anyone can sugarcoat how pitiful Brown has played since being drafted in the first round in 2009. Sixth round slow pokes like Mike Hart and undrafted nobodys like Javarris James had all clearly outplayed Brown this year. Yet, in a game that was as close as a regular season game can get to being a 'playoff game,' Brown delivered. Part of the reason Brown was able to have success was the Colts went back to the stretch running play, which Brown was drafted specifically to do. On his 43-yard TD run, it was classic stretch left. Brown cut, shot through the gap, and outran the entire Jags defense for six. Brown's other 40-plus yard run was off a delayed draw. Brown is excellent running from delays and stretch. He's useless run straight ahead. I hope you are taking notes, Clyde Christensen.
• The other 'breakout' performance was by the defense. The Colts held the Jags to 5-13 on third down.
• The punt return for a touchdown by Mike Thomas was an official's error. Thomas signaled 'fair catch.' Colts players saw it and let up. Thomas caught the ball and ran. No flag. Colt coach Jim Caldwell was pretty pissed, as well he should be. It was 7 cheap points for the Jags. In the end, it didn't matter. Still, a normally strong officiating crew (Mike Carey's) was noticeably off yesterday.
• Carey's crew made up for the blown fair catch call on the Thomas fumble later in the game. Taj Smith was clearly pushed into Thomas, causing him to fumble the catch, which Colts linebacker Kavell Conner recovered. If Carey and his crew had blown that call as well, and the Colts had lost, those men would not have gotten out of The Luke unless with an armed escort.
• Normally, I hate it went the Colts stunt on defense. Stunting just limits the up-field rushing ability of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. However, when David Gerrard threw an interception to Antoine Bethea in the third quarter, the reason he threw that pick was because Dwight Freeney was in his face. Freeney was able to get up-the-middle pressure on that play off a stunt.
• Fili Moala played his best game as a pro. Yes, he only had one tackle, but stats don't tell the story. He was giving the Jaguars o-line fits all game long.
  
• Jacob Lacey has either regressed or been exposed as a mediocre-to-bad corner. The early pass inference call, the mistakes, it all adds up to a guy who isn't quite the same as he was last year.
• I wrote this in my quick recap, but on the play where Austin Collie received his third concussion this season, the person at fault on the play was Peyton Manning. I'm positive he didn't intend this, but Peyton led Collie into the safety's hit, which was legal and clean. After the play, Peyton was pissed, likely at himself. The play was a 3rd-and-12, and Peyton was trying to fit the ball in between three defenders. Bad throw. If he throw it away, the Colts punt and Collie is OK. Instead, the Colts punt, and Collie might be done for 2010.
• To the folks 'defending' Manning on that play, please stop making excuses. If you disagree, that's always fine, but don't get pissy that someone like me for faulting Peyton. I love Peyton Manning. He's the best. But, that was a horrible throw, and if you read his face and body language after the play, he knew it was a dumb play on his part.
  
• Peyton now has thrown 17 TDs and only 3 INTs when Austin Collie plays. Collie had two TDs on the day, abusing the Jags wretched secondary.
  
• So fun to see Dominic Rhodes running the ball against for Indy.
• Since Pat McAfee's suspension, his punts have been 'meh' and I can't recall a single touchback on a kickoff. Something is off with him.
• I feel better about the pass defense sans Jerraud Powers now after watching Justin Tryon the last two weeks. Right now, Tryon is Indy's best corner. If Kelvin Hayden were healthy, Tryon would still be Indy's est corner.
• Did Philip Wheeler play? He recorded no tackles, and both Pat Angerer and Tyjuan Hagler seemed all over the field. Wheeler wasn't mentioned on the injury report, nor was he scratched from the active roster on gameday.
• In the biggest game of the year (thus far), Colts first round pick Jerry Hughes was a healthy scratch. Tells you something about how the team views him. 
• Cannot say enough good things about Jacob Tamme. One of the reasons you all have seen writers like me get so negative on players like Donald Brown, Fili Moala, and Jerry Hughes this season is because of guys like Tamme. On both of Brown's long runs today, Tamme made key blocks. Tamme was drafted to, essentially, play special teams. But, with Dallas Clark gone for the year, Tamme has had to step in and make plays from the tight end spot. Tamme caught 7 for 34 yards today, upping his season total to 53 receptions for 486 yards and 3 TDs.

The Jaguars deserve credit for fighting back into the game,but the Colts set the tone early on Brown's 49-yard run in the first quarter. Indy had a 14-3 lead, and only Thomas' cheap fake fair catch got the Jags back in the game. Indy responded by going up 21-10.

Other than Donald Brown's two big running plays, the biggest play of the game was the decision by Jack Del Rio to go for it on fourth down on his own 39-yard line down by 3 points. Penetration into the backfield by Robert Mathis and Fili Moala forced the hand-off between Gararrd and Maurice Jones-Drew to be awkward. Jones-Drew fumbled, and the Colts recovered. They turned that mistake into 3 more points, digging an even deeper whole for the Jags.

We will have plenty of things to say about Coach Del Rio later today. Until then, I'd like to give a special nod to Big Cat Country, who did some excellent writing leading up to the game.

The Colts are 8-6, and are sitting on top of the AFC South. They aren't playoff bound yet, but they are finally in the picture.

Go Colts.

Andre Johnson is back on the top of the fantasy rankings this week after conceding the position to Roddy White for quite some time.

Johnson has been everything we’ve expected of him this season and has had three games of 140-plus yards receiving in his past five with four touchdowns in that span. He will have a chance to prove himself again this week as he’ll match up with Cortland Finnegan, the man who he got into a physical altercation with just a few weeks ago.

Aaron Rodgers’ injury knocks down Packers receiver Greg Jennings a few spots, down to seventh among fantasy receivers. Jennings did catch four passes for 52 yards last week and appears to be Matt Flynn’s favorite target as well, but the talent just isn’t there. Jennings is a big time deep ball receiver and the Packers are unlikely to give Flynn as many opportunities to air it out as they did for Rodgers.

Dwayne Bowe has now gone back-to-back weeks without a single fantasy point, catching just one pass for three yards in his past two games. Matt Cassel’s emergency appendectomy certainly did not help Bowe last week against the Chargers and there’s still no guarantee that he’ll play this week.

With Brodie Croyle at quarterback, the Chiefs’ offense is in complete shambles. Pay attention this week to see which quarterback is going to play this week because there may be a legitimate reason to bench Bowe if Cassel is unable to go.

Wes Welker is back to being a must-start fantasy football option and is all the way up to 10th in the rankings. His streak of four straight 10-plus fantasy point days are largely a product of the unbelievable hot streak that Tom Brady is on and even Deion Branch moves up nine spots this week because of it.

The Patriots offense looks to be perhaps the best in the league right now and Welker’s 36 receptions in five games are the kind of PPR goodness that fantasy owners have come to know and love from their favorite slot receiver.

View All of the Updated Fantasy Football Rankings at Week 15:

Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends

RANK	PLAYER	TEAM	PREVIOUS RANK	MOVEMENT
1	Andre Johnson	HOU	2	1
2	Roddy White	ATL	1	-1
3	Calvin Johnson	DET	3	0
4	DeSean Jackson	PHI	6	2
5	Reggie Wayne	IND	7	2
6	Marques Colston	NO	10	4
7	Greg Jennings	GB	4	-3
8	Brandon Lloyd	DEN	5	-3
9	Mike Wallace	PIT	9	0
10	Wes Welker	NE	14	4
11	Dwayne Bowe	KC	8	-3
12	Jeremy Maclin	PHI	12	0
13	Santonio Holmes	NYJ	13	0
14	Steve Johnson	BUF	15	1
15	Terrell Owens	CIN	11	-4
16	Pierre Garcon	IND	19	3
17	Hakeem Nicks	NYG	23	6
18	Anquan Boldin	BAL	17	-1
19	Mike Williams	TB	18	-1
20	Malcom Floyd	SD	21	1
21	Deion Branch	NE	30	9
22	Kenny Britt	TEN	28	6
23	Sidney Rice	MIN	16	-7
24	Miles Austin	DAL	20	-4
25	Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	22	-3
26	Michael Crabtree	SF	24	-2
27	Davone Bess	MIA	29	2
28	Santana Moss	WAS	26	-2
29	Chad Ochocinco	CIN	33	4
30	Mario Manningham	NYG	35	5
31	Brandon Marshall	MIA	31	0
32	Hines Ward	PIT	41	9
33	Mike Thomas	JAC	27	-6
34	Braylon Edwards	NYJ	34	0
35	Percy Harvin	MIN	25	-10
36	Mike Williams	SEA	37	1
37	Lance Moore	NO	36	-1
38	Austin Collie	IND	38	0
39	James Jones	GB	40	1
40	Roy Williams	DAL	45	5
41	Derrick Mason	BAL	52	11
42	Nate Washington	TEN	42	0
43	Steve Smith	CAR	43	0
44	Mike Sims-Walker	JAC	44	0
45	Johnny Knox	CHI	46	1
46	Donald Driver	GB	47	1
47	Vincent Jackson	SD	64	17
48	Nate Burleson	DET	49	1
49	Robert Meachem	NO	50	1
50	Earl Bennett	CHI	51	1
51	Jordan Shipley	CIN	53	2
52	Jabar Gaffney	DEN	54	2
53	Ben Obomanu	SEA	55	2
54	Kevin Walter	HOU	60	6
55	Danny Amendola	STL	59	4
56	Louis Murphy	OAK	62	6
57	Eddie Royal	DEN	57	0
58	Brandon Tate	NE	58	0
59	Randy Moss	TEN	39	-20
60	Jacoby Jones	HOU	63	3

The Indianapolis Colts host the Jacksonville Jaguars with their playoff hopes hanging in the balance. A loss to the first place Jags and the Colts are likely out from playoff contention.

(Sports Network) - This is unfamiliar territory for Peyton Manning.

By the time of the year, the Indianapolis Colts quarterback is accustomed to questions about dwindling playing time as his team preps for a long-assured playoff berth.

Just last season, in fact, the Colts stirred controversy by benching the multi- time NFL MVP in favor of understudy Curtis Painter, effectively ending their chances at a 16-0 run.

But things are a little different in 2010.

Instead of playing out a postseason-bound string, Manning and his fellow Colts will play for their January lives this weekend, when the AFC South-leading Jacksonville Jaguars visit Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday.

An Indianapolis win gives it a split of the season series and forges a flat- footed tie atop the division, though the Jaguars would still hold a tie-breaker edge at the moment because of a slightly-better conference record with two regular-season games remaining. Jacksonville is 7-3 in AFC play at the moment, while the Colts own a 5-4 mark.

A Jacksonville win, however, ends the division race and all but KO's Manning and his team's chances at returning to the Super Bowl tournament for the 11th time in 13 seasons.

The Colts finish the schedule at Oakland and home with Tennessee, while Jacksonville visits Washington and hosts Houston. If Indianapolis beats the Jaguars on Sunday and wins out, it wins the division.

"It's kind of like when you were a youngster going out to the basketball court, with chain nets," Colts coach Jim Caldwell said of his club's situation. "There was a great game called 'make it, take it.' Whoever won stayed on the court. That's where we are. It is an atmosphere where wins are extremely important."

The Jaguars, who won the series opener between the teams by a 31-28 count in Week 4, remained in the lead with a 38-31 defeat of the Oakland Raiders last weekend.

Jacksonville has won five of six games since a 22-point loss at Kansas City dropped the team to 3-4 on Oct. 24.

"You have to play your best football down the stretch and here we are in the middle of the stretch playing our best football," said Jaguars head coach Jack Del Rio, whose team lost its final four games last season after a 7-5 start. "We stay about our business, hang together. We don't fray at the edges.

"Guys don't start looking for reasons why it's not going well. I think that allows you to weather some of the storms that you're going to face."

SERIES HISTORY

The Colts have prevailed in 14 of 19 all-time matchups with Jacksonville and had won three straight in the series prior to the above-mentioned last-second victory by the Jaguars in Week 4. Jacksonville has beaten the Colts only twice in nine lifetime games in Indianapolis, with its most recent triumph a 23-21 upset in 2008, and has never swept a home-and-home set from the Colts since the clubs became divisional foes in 2002.

The last six contests in this series have all been decided by seven points or less, with five of those tilts having a margin of victory of four points or fewer.

Del Rio is 5-10 against the Colts during his career as a head coach, while Caldwell is 2-1 against both Del Rio and the Jaguars since taking over for Tony Dungy in 2009.

WHEN THE COLTS HAVE THE BALL

The strengths are in predictable places for the Colts, who lead the league in passing yardage (304.0 ypg), are second in scoring (26.7 ppg) and fifth in total yardage (383.7 ypg). Things have not gone so well on the ground for Indianapolis, which brings up the rear of the league's 32 teams at 79.7 yards per game. Jacksonville hasn't wowed many with its stinginess, allowing a 25th- best 25.5 points per week while placing 26th in total yardage allowed (371.2 ypg) and 28th in passing yardage allowed (258.3 ypg). The Jaguars are slightly less porous when stopping the run, placing 18th in the league with a 112.8 yards-per-game clip.

Manning is 13-5 lifetime against the Jaguars and has completed 405-of-629 attempts for 5,014 yards with 36 touchdowns, 13 interceptions and a 99.4 passer rating in those games. He has 63 career 300-yard passing games, which is tied with Hall of Famer Dan Marino for the most in NFL history. Rookie running back Javarris James, an undrafted free agent, leads all rookies with six rushing touchdowns. On the outside, with 1,213 receiving yards, wideout Reggie Wayne now has five seasons with 1,200 receiving yards -- the second-most in club history behind Marvin Harrison's six. And, with six catches and two touchdowns in last week's 30-28 win at Tennessee, receiver Pierre Garcon now has a career- high 52 catches. He also has four touchdowns in 2010, equaling his career-best from last season.

For the Jaguars, linebackers Daryl Smith and Kirk Morrison are tied for the team lead with 66 tackles apiece. Morrison has 54 solo stops, while Smith has contributed 48 on his own.

WHEN THE JAGUARS HAVE THE BALL

Pounding the rock has been the ticket to success for the Jaguars, who've churned out an average of 157.8 yards per week on the ground, second-best in the league. Elsewhere, Jacksonville is 12th in scoring offense (22.7 ppg), 15th in total yardage (342.0 ypg) and 29th in passing yardage (184.2 ypg). It's been a trying year by the numbers for the Colts defense, who are 23rd in the league in scoring defense (24.5 ppg), 20th in total yardage allowed (344.5 ypg) and 29th in run defense (141.1 ypg). They've been successful by default at defending the pass, where foes have only thrown enough to generate 203.4 yards per game, making Indy the eighth-best in the league in that category.

In his last two games against the Colts, Jaguars quarterback David Garrard has five touchdowns, one interception and a 101.9 rating. In four games against the AFC South in 2010, he is 3-1 and has completed 62-of-84 passes for 680 yards, four touchdowns and a 108.2 rating. Garrard is second in the NFL with 118.9 fourth-quarter rating, behind only Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger's 121.1. After throwing for three touchdowns against Oakland last week, Garrard now has 20 scoring passes in 2010, tying Mark Brunell's single-season franchise record from 1998 and 2000. The Jaguars have rushed for 200 or more yards as a team in three straight games, and mighty mite Maurice Jones-Drew aims for a seventh consecutive game with at least 100. He also seeks a third straight game with 100 yards against the Colts and has five games of surpassing the century mark in his career against Indianapolis. Jones-Drew's 883 career rushing yards against the Colts are his most against any opponent. Another back, Rashad Jennings, rushed for 109 yards on five carries against Oakland, becoming the sixth player in 50 years to average 20-plus yards per rush in a game with a minimum of five attempts. He seeks a fourth straight game with a rushing touchdown. Elsewhere, tight end Marcedes Lewis needs one touchdown catch to become the second player in club history with 10 scoring receptions in a season.

For the Colts, end Dwight Freeney leads all active NFL players with 41 career forced fumbles, including one last week. Another end, Robert Mathis, needs 1 1/2 sacks to post 10 or more in a season for the fourth time in his career.

FANTASY FOCUS

Jacksonville's Jones-Drew against an iffy Colts' run defense is the fantasy definition of a no-brainer, while tight end Lewis has earned consideration as well. Also worthy of a thought is Jacksonville kicker Josh Scobee, who figures to be busy. Manning remains a similar must-play for the Colts regardless of matchup, and his presence creates value for both Wayne and Garcon. Also important is kicker Adam Vinatieri.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

Given their recent history of dominance in the AFC South, it's odd to see the Colts fighting for postseason life in Week 15. That said, they've shown that they know the way to the playoffs and should be considered a favorite until officially knocked from the perch. With Manning still on the roster, Indianapolis is the logical choice.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Colts 24, Jaguars 20

Welcome to the Week 15 Consensus Start/Sit list. Just a reminder that this list is a tally of the players that had the most start/sit votes in this week's expert links that I posted. Hope this helps if you're in a tight spot with your playoffs lineups decisions - good luck!

QB
Start: Matt Schaub, Matt Ryan, Josh Freeman, Jon Kitna, Carson Palmer
Sit: Kyle Orton, Joe Flacco, Mark Sanchez, Ben Roethlisberger

RB
Start: Jonathan Stewart, Tim Hightower
Sit: LaDainian Tomlinson, Rashard Mendenhall, Adrian Peterson, Thomas Jones

WR
Start: Pierre Garcon, Santana Moss, Kenny Britt
Sit: Stevie Johnson, Brandon Lloyd, Sidney Rice

TE
Start: Owen Daniels, Kevin Boss
Sit: Ben Watson, Dustin Keller, Brent Celek, Visanthe Shiancoe

DST
Start: Patriots, Raiders
Sit: Ravens, Packers

Kickers
Start: Jay Feely
Sit: Olindo Mare

Pierre Garcon vs. Jaguars Larry Fitzgerald vs. Panthers

Filed under: Colts, Jaguars, AFC South

INDIANAPOLIS -- The Colts play host to the Jaguars Sunday in perhaps the biggest regular-season game in the history of the AFC South.

That's an extreme statement, but it's true.

The Colts, who have made the postseason an NFL-high eight consecutive seasons, have dominated the South since its 2002 inception. They have won six of eight division titles and made the playoffs as a wild card the other two seasons.

If they don't win Sunday, those streaks likely will end.

The Jaguars, who never have won an AFC title, haven't won a division title since winning back-to-back AFC Central titles in 1998-1999, and have made the playoffs twice since 2002. They can clinch the South with a victory over the Colts on Sunday.

While the Colts (7-6) trail the Jaguars (8-5) by a game in the South, they still control their playoff destiny because if they win their final three games, the Jaguars can't win the division. If the Colts win out by winning at home against Jacksonville, at Oakland and at home against Tennessee, the Jaguars can do no better than tie Indianapolis at 10-6.

Under that scenario, the Colts would win the division because of a better record against common opponents.

The last time two AFC South teams played December games with stakes so high was 2003, when the Colts beat the Tennessee Titans in December en route to the first of their six South titles. But that season, the Colts and Titans each made the postseason.

This season, the South is unlikely to send a second team to the postseason, meaning if Sunday's game isn't the biggest in division history, it's at the least on a very short list.

With Maurice Jones-Drew rushing for more than 100 yards in six consecutive games, the Jaguars have surged to the division lead with victories in five of six games. That came after a 3-4 start in which each Jacksonville loss was by at least 22 points.

The Colts have lost four of their last six games, dealing with a slew of injuries, including the loss for the season of wide receiver Anthony Gonzalez, tight end Dallas Clark, safeties Melvin Bullitt and Bob Sanders and cornerback Jerraud Powers.

Who: Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts.

Where: Lucas Oil Stadium; Indianapolis, Ind.

When: Sunday, December 19, 1 p.m.

TV Coverage: CBS.

Players to Watch: Colts quarterback Peyton Manning has completed 378 of 569 passes for 4,028 yards and 26 touchdowns with 15 interceptions this season; Jaguars quarterback David Garrard has competed 190 of 290 passes for 2,141 yards and 20 touchdowns with 12 interceptions; Joseph Addai has rushed for 406 yards and three touchdowns for the Colts and Donald Brown has rushed for 331 yards and a touchdown; Jaguars running back Maurice Jones-Drew has rushed for 1,278 yards and five touchdowns this season; Jaguars wide receiver Mike Thomas has 56 receptions for 649 yards and three touchdowns and tight end Marcedes Lewis 45 receptions for 574 yards and nine touchdowns; Colts wide receiver Reggie Wayne has 94 receptions for 1,213 yards and five touchdowns and wide receiver Pierre Garcon has 52 receptions for 627 yards and four touchdowns; Colts wide receiver Austin Collie has 50 receptions for 562 yards and six touchdowns and tight end Jacob Tamme has 46 receptions 452 yards and three touchdowns; Colts defensive ends Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney have 8.5 sacks and 8.0 sacks, respectively. . . . Jaguars defensive tackle Terrance Knighton has four sacks.

Line: Colts by 4.5.

 

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Here they are: Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Rankings for Week 15 (2010) to help you decide who to start and who to sit on your fantasy football team. *CHECK POSITIONAL RANKINGS UNDER OUR NAVIGATION BAR ABOVE. WE UPDATE THEM OFTEN, AS NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.
1. Andre Johnson (HOU) - @ TEN + Ankle
2. Reggie Wayne (IND) - vs. JAC
3. Roddy White (ATL) - @ SEA + Knee
4. Calvin Johnson (DET) - @ TB
5. Marques Colston (NO) - @ BAL
6. Wes Welker (NE) - vs. GB
7. Hakeem Nicks (NYG) - vs. PHI
8. DeSean Jackson (PHI) - @ NYG + Foot
9. Dwayne Bowe (KC) - @ STL
10. Terrell Owens (CIN) - vs. CLE + Knee
11. Malcom Floyd (SD) - vs. SF + Hamstring (Questionable)
12. Greg Jennings (GB) - @ NE
13. Santonio Holmes (NYJ) - @ PIT
14. Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) - @ CAR
15. Jeremy Maclin (PHI) - @ NYG
16. Pierre Garcon (IND) - vs. JAC
17. Miles Austin (DAL) - vs. WAS
18. Mike Williams (TB) - vs. DET + Knee
19. Kenny Britt (TEN) - vs. HOU
20. Deion Branch (NE) - vs. GB + Knee
21. Mike Wallace (PIT) - vs. NYJ
22. Santana Moss (WAS) - @ DAL
23. Anquan Boldin (BAL) - vs. NO
24. Brandon Lloyd (DEN) - @ OAK + Calf
25. Sidney Rice (MIN) - vs. CHI
26. Steve Johnson (BUF) - @ MIA
27. Austin Collie (IND) - vs. JAC + Concussion
28. Derrick Mason (BAL) - vs. NO + Ankle
29. Brandon Marshall (MIA) - vs. BUF
30. Vincent Jackson (SD) - vs. SF
31. Chad Ochocinco (CIN) - vs. CLE + Ankle
32. Hines Ward (PIT) - vs. NYJ
33. Earl Bennett (CHI) - @ MIN
34. Lance Moore (NO) - @ BAL
35. Mike Williams (SEA) - vs. ATL + Ankle
36. Mike Sims-Walker (JAC) - @ IND
37. Johnny Knox (CHI) - @ MIN
38. Davone Bess (MIA) - vs. BUF
39. Ben Obomanu (SEA) - vs. ATL + Hand 
40. Mario Manningham (NYG) - vs. PHI + Hip
41. Michael Crabtree (SF) - @ SD
42. Percy Harvin (MIN) - vs. CHI + Illness
43. Braylon Edwards (NYJ) - @ PIT
44. Nate Washington (TEN) - vs. HOU
45. Robert Meachem (NO) - @ BAL
46. Roy Williams (DAL) - vs. WAS + Groin
47. Louis Murphy (OAK) - vs. DEN
48. Donald Driver (GB) - @ NE
49. Anthony Armstrong (WAS) - @ DAL
50. Danny Amendola (STL) - vs. KC

The Jacksonville Jaguars' improbable season continues this week with a road test against the Indianapolis Colts.  Since defeating Indy in stunning fashion back in week four, Jacksonville has managed to roll off a 7-3 record, thanks in part to key victories against Oakland and Dallas.

But it is the Colts they're facing—led by none other than Peyton Manning.

A Jaguars victory on Sunday seals the AFC South title for Jacksonville—something that has been a long time coming for the Jaguars faithful.

For all you Jaguars fans out there, here are my three storylines to watch for in Sunday's crucial matchup with the Colts.

 

Win or else. It’s come to this for one of the NFL’s premier franchises—handle the Jacksonville Jaguars at Lucas Oil Stadium or accept the fact that you won’t be involved in the postseason for the first time since 2001. It’s that simple. Despite entering the game trailing Jacksonville by only one game, the Colts must win their final three games to take the AFC South. And that starts with the Jags.

Grabbing the baton. The last time Jacksonville won a division title was in 1999, and it was the AFC Central. They can end that drought and serve notice to the Colts and Tennessee Titans that they’ll be contending for the AFC South for the foreseeable future by completing the season sweep of the Colts. A victory clinches the division.

Contrasting styles. The Colts and Jaguars have proven that there are two ways to succeed. Indy leans heavily on the right arm of QB Peyton Manning, who’s on pace to deliver an NFL single season record 700 passes. Jacksonville climbs on the back of RB Maurice Jones-Drew and lets his sturdy legs carry them. No one throws the ball more than the Colts. Only Kansas City runs it more often than the Jags.

 

3 Key Colts

 

LB Gary Brackett. Brackett is the brains and emotional leader of the defense. But he must measure up to Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew if the Colts are going to slow down the NFL’s second-leading rusher. Brackett is tenacious, but only 5'11", 235 pounds. Jones-Drew is a dumptruck with a pulse at 5'7", 209.

WR Pierre Garcon. He’s shrugged off a slow start that was caused by injuries and a lack of steady practice. Over the past five games, Garcon has 29 catches, 320 yards and three touchdowns. He’s emerged as the big play threat that served the team so well in 2009. When Garcon plays like this, the offense has quick-strike potential and WR Reggie Wayne is given more opportunities to excel.

RB Donald Brown. The Colts running game remains the NFL’s worst, but at least it was serviceable in the most recent win over the Titans. They averaged just 2.7 yards per carry, but offensive coordinator Clyde Christensen and QB Peyton Manning stuck with it. Brown and backup RB Javarris James combined for 32 carries. The threat of a running game takes some of the load off of Manning. That’s Brown’s charge.

 

3 key Jaguars

QB David Garrard. Most of the attention will be focused on RB Maurice Jones-Drew, and for good reason. But Garrard quietly has had a Pro Bowl-caliber season. If the Colts sell out to stop the Jaguars’ running game, Garrard is more than capable of beating them with his arm (2,141 yards, 20 TDs, 12 INTs) or his legs (232 yards, 4 TDs). He’s especially dangerous on bootlegs that take advantage of DEs Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis being too aggressive in getting up the field.

DTs Terrance Knighton and Tyson Alualu. Consider them the new John Henderson and Marcus Stroud. Alualu was the surprise pick in the first round of the April draft while Knighton was a third-round pick in ’09. Together, they're a force in the defensive interior. Knighton has four sacks, while Alualu has collected 3.5. QB Peyton Manning is at his best when he’s able to step up in the pocket to avoid the outside rush. He won’t be able to do that if Knighton and Alualu win the interior battles.

TE Marcedes Lewis. The 2006 first-round draft pick has emerged as one of the league’s premier players at his position. Although Lewis has a modest 45 receptions, he’s tied for third in the AFC with nine touchdowns. Garrard always knows where he is, and on Sunday, he likely will be using his 6'6", 275-pound frame to fend off smaller Colts linebackers and safeties.

Bottom line

Jacksonville appears on the verge of supplanting the Colts and Titans as the best team in the AFC South. But the Jaguars’ wait might be a bit longer. Look for QB Peyton Manning to generate more difference-making plays than RB Maurice Jones-Drew, and look for the Colts to keep their playoff aspirations alive.  It’ll be close—it always is—but the final score will be 

Colts 34

Jaguars 30.

1. Dwayne Bowe — These last two weeks have provided a rude wakeup call for Bowe owners: the fantasy football equivalent of a drill sergeant waking up his platoon by repeatedly banging two garbage-can lids together. After an incredible seven-game run during which he caught 13 TD passes and averaged seven receptions, Bowe has struck an iceberg. He was shut out two weeks ago against Denver. Last week against the Chargers, with Chiefs QB Matt Cassel out following an appendectomy, Bowe was held to one catch for three yards. If you've survived the bursting of the Bowe bubble, do you throw him into your lineup again in a playoff week? You'll obviously want to monitor the status of Cassel, who has a chance to return against the Rams. If Cassel is back, Bowe should have a reasonably good chance to get his groove back against a St. Louis defense that's easier to throw on than run against.

2. Michael Vick — After playing the Superman role for much of the season, Vick is now trying to put fantasy teams on his shoulders and carry them to championships. Since his Week Nine return from a chest injury, he's had six rushing TDs in six games to go along with 11 TD passes. His per-game yardage averages over that span: 285.7 passing yards, 49.3 rushing yards. If you're up against Vick this week, the Eagles' matchup against the Giants offers a sliver of hope. When the two teams played in Week 11, the Giants didn't allow Vick to throw a TD pass, although he did have a rushing TD. Vick threw for 258 yards in that game and ran for another 34. The G-men rank second in the NFL against the pass and are tied for the league lead in sacks.

3. Maurice Jones-Drew — On the Mohs scale of relative hardness, the Colts' run defense falls somewhere between baby skin and goose-down pillows. Last week, the Indianapolis run defense was a slump-buster for the Titans' Chris Johnson, who had been held to a total of 58 rushing yards and zero TDs in his two previous games before rushing for 111 yards and a TD against the Colts. So what will happen when the Stay Puft Marshmallow Defense attempts to bottle up the hottest running back in the league? Jones-Drew has ripped off six consecutive 100-yard rushing games and has been a tireless workhorse for the Jaguars, who could clinch the AFC South title with a win in Indy this week. If the Jags let M.J.D. hammer away at the Colts' run defense 25 times or so, chances are good he'll carry a lot of fantasy owners to playoff victories.

4. Adrian Peterson — If you had Peterson in your lineup last week and still managed to survive despite his 26-yard game against the Giants, congratulations. But what now? Fantasy football seasons always take some unusual twists and turns. Who could have foreseen that one of the game's premier running backs would be essentially homeless for the final weeks of the fantasy season? The collapse of the Metrodome roof forced the Vikings to play a "home" game at Ford Field last week, and now they could be playing a chilly Monday-night game at the University of Minnesota's outdoor stadium. Based on their most recent performance, transience doesn't suit the Vikings. I'm not saying the Vikes are prepared to mail it in for the rest of the year, but I was in line at the post office the other day and was waiting behind the Vikings' equipment manager, who bought 53 Christmas stamps. Peterson faces a solid Bears run defense this week, and his QB is TBA: Brett Favre, Tarvaris Jackson and third-stringer Joe Webb are all dealing with injuries.

5. Ryan Torain — After missing four games with a hamstring injury, Torain re-animated the moribund Washington ground game last week, rushing for a career-high 172 yards. Could he be a superstar in the making? It's worth remembering that Torain had produced two 100-yard rushing games in a row leading up to the Week Eight game against Detroit in which the hammy gave out. It has been a disappointing season for the Redskins, but going to Dallas and beating their archrivals this week would ease some of the pain, so I would expect a reasonable effort out of Washington. And Mike Shanahan undoubtedly realizes that the more he relies on Torain and the less he relies on rapidly aging, increasingly mistake-prone QB Donovan McNabb, the better his chances are of beating the hated Cowboys.

6. Tom Brady — As of midweek, the Sunday-night weather forecast for Foxborough, Mass. called for a light wind and only a 10 percent chance of snow. That almost qualifies as bad news for Brady owners, doesn't it? Brady takes to the snow like a Siberian husky puppy. In blizzard conditions last Sunday in Chicago, Brady threw for 369 yards and two TDs. And who could forget his six-TD performance against the Titans last year in a freak mid-October snowstorm? Brady is insanely hot at the moment, with three consecutive 300-yard passing games and 17 TD passes over his last six starts. By the time Brady takes the field against the Packers on Sunday night, it will have been more than two months since his last interception. But this week, Brady will be up against a Green Bay defense that ranks third in the league in pass defense and almost certainly will try to take the slant routes away from Brady by employing press coverage. Perhaps the greatest concern for Brady owners is the possibility that his Green Bay counterpart, Aaron Rodgers, is recovering from a concussion. If Rodgers doesn't play, it's unlikely the Packers will be able to hang with the Patriots, and the Pats might be able to take the foot off the gas pedal in the second half.

7. Darren McFadden — November was a rather slow month for McFadden, but he seems to be feeling the holiday spirit in December. After producing 127 yards from scrimmage and a TD against the Chargers in Week 13, he exploded for 209 yards from scrimmage and three TDs against the Jaguars last week. Now he's preparing to face the Broncos, who rank 31st against the run and have allowed a league-high 19 rushing TDs. Denver managed to make the Cardinals' Tim Hightower look like vintage Eric Dickerson last week. So there's a pretty fair chance McFadden will leave candy in his fantasy owners' stockings this weekend.

8. Kenny Britt — Britt returned from a hamstring injury last week and looked friskier than his 39 receiving yards would indicate. He only had four receptions and coughed up a costly fumble, but Titans QB Kerry Collins repeatedly looked Britt's way, and why not? Who else is Collins supposed to rely on … Randy Moss? (Yeah, right.) The Titans host the Texans this weekend, and the Texans are perhaps the one team in the league capable of making the 37-year-old Collins look more like the 27-year-old Collins. You might not have been anxious to re-insert Britt into your lineup last week, but all systems are go for this week.

9. Hakeem Nicks — Nicks returned from a leg injury in Week 14 and quickly re-established himself as Eli Manning's go-to guy, catching a team-high seven passes for 96 yards in a game in which the Giants breezed to victory over the Vikings and let their running game do the heavy lifting. The Giants' passing game probably will have to pull its share of the weight in this weekend's important divisional game against the high-scoring Eagles, and with Mario Manningham injuring himself and Steve Smith re-injuring himself, Nicks is just about the last man standing at wide receiver for the Giants.

10. Pierre Garcon — It's hard to tell whether this guy is a star in the making or a tease. He looked like the former last week against the Titans, catching six passes for 93 yards and two TDs. Garcon now has 14 catches and three TDs over his last two games. But Garcon has a nettlesome habit of disappearing just when he seems to be on the verge of a breakthrough. He should (repeat: SHOULD) play a prominent role this week in the Colts' big divisional showdown with the Jaguars, considering Indy's nonexistent running game and the questionable status of Austin Collie.

Hi Guys,

We, like a lot of h2h leagues, have a playoff system in place where the top 2 teams get a "Bye" week the 1st rd of the playoffs (Wildcard Weekend as it were). That was Last week.

I got some grief from the two teams that their players had outstanding weeks that were "wasted" on the Bye.
Pierre Garcon is one, he had 27 points last week in our league.

Anyway, ais there anyone out there that has a rule in place for the Bye week? So allow the owner of a team on a Bye to pick a player and use the points scored in Week 14...the next week? Or is that too hokey.

Example would be the guy who had Garcon, could choose to keep the 27 pts or take what Garcon produces in week 15.

Too much?

A friend & I attended the Pierre Garcon autograph event at the grand opening of the Noblesville Tire Barn last evening !! Pierre Garcon showed up 15 minutes late - and - then spent about 5 minutes doing an interview on "The Ride with JMV" on 1070 the Fan BEFORE beginning to sign autographs !! We had been in line for nearly 45 minutes before we were "informed" that Pierre would ONLY sign 8 X 10 color photos that his agent would provide.  Unfortunately - these "photos" include a tacky "Tire Barn" logo in the upper right hand corner of the photograph !! He refused to sign any other memorabilia that fans brought and held while in line from 1 1/2 to 3 hours !! All fans near me in line were VERY upset that that information was NOT included in the plethora of publicized information about the event !!  Many indicated they wouldn't have come if they'd know "the policy" before the event !! Thought I'd share the information and save other Colts fans the similar wait & fate !!  [image]

Indianapolis WR Pierre Garcon enters Week 15 against Jacksonville on a roll. He's scored three touchdowns in his last two games and had two last week. He should continue that production against a team allowing the fifth-most Fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. The Raiders were able to have their way against the Jaguars last week so the Colts shouldn't have any issues. Garcon did n

13 Vote(s)

There are plenty of injuries and concerns as the fantasy playoffs draw near. 

Let’s take a look at which wide receivers you should be putting your faith in and which you should avoid:

1. Reggie Wayne – Indianapolis Colts – vs. Jacksonville
2. Roddy White – Atlanta Falcons – at Seattle
3. Andre Johnson – Houston Texans – at Tennessee
4. Hakeem Nicks – New York Giants – vs. Philadelphia
5. DeSean Jackson – Philadelphia Eagles – at New York Giants
6. Marques Colston – New Orleans Saints – at Baltimore
7. Wes Welker – New England Patriots – vs. Green Bay
8. Calvin Johnson – Detroit Lions – at Tampa Bay
9. Dwayne Bowe – Kansas City Chiefs – at St. Louis
10. Terrell Owens – Cincinnati Bengals – vs. Cleveland
11. Greg Jennings – Green Bay Packers – at New England
12. Pierre Garcon – Indianapolis Colts – vs. Jacksonville
13. Anquan Boldin – Baltimore Ravens – vs. New Orleans
14. Malcolm Floyd – San Diego Chargers – vs. San Francisco
15. Jeremy Maclin – Philadelphia Eagles – at New York Giants
16. Larry Fitzgerald – Arizona Cardinals – at Carolina
17. Deion Branch – New England Patriots – vs. Green Bay
18. Sidney Rice – Minnesota Vikings – vs. Chicago
19. Santonio Holmes – New York Jets – at Pittsburgh
20. Mike Wallace – Pittsburgh Steelers – vs. New York Jets
21. Kenny Britt – Tennessee Titans – vs. Houston
22. Santana Moss – Washington Redskins – at Dallas
23. Mike Williams – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – vs. Detroit
24. Miles Austin – Dallas Cowboys – vs. Washington
25. Brandon Lloyd – Denver Broncos – at Oakland
26. Brandon Marshall – Miami Dolphins – vs. Buffalo
27. Stevie Johnson – Buffalo Bills – at Miami
28. Hines Ward – Pittsburgh Steelers – vs. New York Jets
29. Chad Ochocinco – Cincinnati Bengals – vs. Cleveland
30. Derrick Mason – Baltimore Ravens – vs. New Orleans
31. Steve Breaston – Arizona Cardinals – at Carolina
32. Mike Williams – Seattle Seahawks – vs. Atlanta
33. Davone Bess – Miami Dolphins – vs. Buffalo
34. Anthony Armstrong – Washington Redskins – at Dallas
35. Vincent Jackson – San Diego Chargers – vs. San Francisco
36. Percy Harvin – Minnesota Vikings – vs. Chicago
37. Derek Hagan – New York Giants – vs. Philadelphia
38. Johnny Knox – Chicago Bears – at Minnesota
39. Ben Obomanu – Seattle Seahawks – vs. Atlanta
40. Roy Williams – Dallas Cowboys – vs. Washington
41. Arrelious Benn – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – vs. Detroit
42. Braylon Edwards – New York Jets – at Pittsburgh
43. Danny Woodhead – New England Patriots – vs. Green Bay
44. Donald Driver – Green Bay Packers – at New England
45. Lance Moore – New Orleans Saints – at Baltimore
46. Earl Bennett – Chicago Bears – at Minnesota
47. Michael Crabtree- San Francisco 49ers – at San Diego
48. Steve Smith – Carolina Panthers – vs. Arizona
49. Mike Sims-Walker – Jacksonville Jaguars – at Indianapolis
50. Mike Thomas – Jacksonville Jaguars – at Indianapolis
51. Eddie Royal – Denver Broncos – at Oakland
52. Kevin Walter – Houston Texans – at Tennessee
53. Danny Amendola – St. Louis Rams – vs. Kansas City
54. Blair White – Indianapolis Colts – vs. Jacksonville
55. Mohamed Massaquoi – Cleveland Browns – at Cincinnati
56. Robert Meachem – New Orleans Saints – at Baltimore
57. Jacoby Ford – Oakland Raiders – vs. Denver
58. Jabar Gaffney – Denver Broncos – at Oakland
59. Brandon Gibson – St. Louis Rams – vs. Kansas City
60. Nate Burleson – Detroit Lions – at Tampa Bay

Thoughts:

• At this point it doesn’t really matter if Austin Collie returns or not. Pierre Garcon is playing well and should be a viable option in all formats.  In Week 14, he picked up six receptions for 93 yards and two touchdowns.

• With Kyle Orton fading, it is becoming tougher to depend on Brandon Lloyd.  Over the past two weeks. he has managed just five receptions for 63 yards and no touchdowns. 
  
  Knock him down to a WR2, as it is tough to depend on him, though the Raiders defense has allowed 25 passing TDs on the year.  It really is going to depend on your other options.

• Greg Jennings and Donald Driver’s value will ultimately depend on if Aaron Rodgers is playing or not.  Keep checking the news and adjust him accordingly.  Jennings will always be usable, but Driver is not going to be viable without him.

• Wes Welker is starting to come on, with at least seven receptions and 80 yards in each of his past three games.  It doesn’t matter who they are playing, he has returned to being a WR1.  With the way Tom Brady is going, it doesn’t seem like they are going to slow down any time soon, either.

• With Hakeem Nicks back and looking healthy on Monday, he returns to being a WR1.

• At this point, there are certainly receivers that it are very difficult to trust, aren’t there?  Included in that group are Miles Austin (11 receptions for 101 yards over his last four games) and Brandon Marshall (13 receptions for 121 yards over his last four games).  Both are better suited for WR3 duties at this point.

• Kenny Britt is back and he certainly showed more than enough to justify using him against the Houston Texans, who remain the worst passing defense in the league.

• Will Mike Wallace be left on Revis Island?  The fear of that downgrades him to a lower level WR2 at this point, considering he is dependent on the big play.

• Larry Fitzgerald had six receptions for 72 yards with John Skelton under center in Week 14, and you have to think that their rapport will only improve.  Against the Carolina Panthers, he’s well worth using.

• Both Mario Manningham and Steve Smith appear unlikely to play for the Giants in Week 15.  Derek Hagan suddenly becomes a potential option for those in three wide receiver formats.

• Percy Harvin is on these rankings at this point, though it is a complete wild card on if he will play or not.  Keep a close eye on things, but with the Vikings playing on Monday night, it will be tough to depend on him.

• Mike Williams (Seattle) and Ben Obomanu are both coming back from injuries, hopefully.  For that reason, they should be considered only WR3s, at best.

What are your thoughts on these rankings?  Who's too high?  Whose too low?

Make sure to check out the rest of our Week 15 rankings:

• Top 25 Quarterbacks
• Top 40 Running Backs
• Top 20 Tight Ends
• Waiver Worthy

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM/FOOTBALL

We profile players with their chances for PPR opportunities this week. This week's picks include Deion Branch, Pierre Garcon, Rob Gronkowski, Felix Jones, and Rashard Mendenhall. [Go To Page]

Here are the Week 15 fantasy rankings for wide receivers:

1. Andre Johnson, Texans at Titans
2. Reggie Wayne, Colts vs. Jaguars
3. DeSean Jackson, Eagles at Giants
4. Marques Colston, Saints at Ravens
5. Greg Jennings, Packers at Patriots  
6. Wes Welker, Patriots vs. Packers
7. Hakeem Nicks, Giants vs. Eagles
8. Calvin Johnson, Lions at Buccaneers
9. Jeremy Maclin, Eagles at Giants
10. Stevie Johnson, Bills at Dolphins
11. Miles Austin, Cowboys vs. Redskins
12. Santana Moss, Redskins at Cowboys
13. Kenny Britt, Titans vs. Texans
14. Deion Branch, Patriots vs. Packers
15. Pierre Garcon, Colts vs. Jaguars
16. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs at Rams
17. Sidney Rice, Vikings vs. Bears
18. Brandon Lloyd, Broncos at Raiders
19. Anquan Boldin, Ravens vs. Saints
20. Derrick Mason, Ravens vs. Saints
21. Terrell Owens, Bengals vs. Browns
22. Brandon Marshall, Dolphins vs. Bills
23. Malcom Floyd, Chargers vs. 49ers
24. Mike Williams, Buccaneers vs. Lions
25. Chad Ochocinco, Bengals vs. Browns
26. Santonio Holmes, Jets at Steelers
27. Johnny Knox, Bears at Vikings
28. Lance Moore, Saints at Ravens
29. Vincent Jackson, Chargers vs. 49ers
30. Mike Wallace, Steelers vs. Jets
31. Blair White, Colts vs. Jaguars
32. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals at Panthers
33. Mike Sims-Walker, Jaguars at Colts
34. Arrelious Benn, Buccaneers vs. Lions
35. Donald Driver, Packers at Patriots
36. Anthony Armstrong, Redskins at Cowboys
37. Hines Ward, Steelers vs. Jets
38. Percy Harvin, Vikings vs. Bears — INJ
39. Robert Meachem, Saints at Ravens
40. Kevin Walter, Texans at Titans
41. Louis Murphy, Raiders vs. Broncos
42. Michael Crabtree, 49ers at Chargers
43. Roy Williams, Cowboys vs. Redskins
44. Earl Bennett, Bears at Vikings
45. Jacoby Jones, Texans at Titans
46. Davone Bess, Dolphins vs. Bills
47. Jacoby Ford, Raiders vs. Broncos
48. Eddie Royal, Broncos at Raiders
49. Mohamed Massaquoi, Browns at Bengals
50. Jabar Gaffney, Broncos at Raiders
51. Nate Washington, Titans vs. Texans
52. Josh Morgan, 49ers at Chargers
53. James Jones, Packers at Patriots
54. Mike Thomas, Jaguars at Colts
55. Braylon Edwards, Jets at Steelers
56. Randy Moss, Titans vs. Texans
57. David Nelson, Bills at Dolphins
58. Steve Smith, Panthers vs. Cardinals
59. Danny Amendola, Rams vs. Chiefs
60. Brandon Gibson, Rams vs. Chiefs
61. Nate Burleson, Lions at Buccaneers
62. Devin Hester, Bears at Vikings
63. Justin Gage, Titans vs. Texans
64. Dexter McCluster, Chiefs at Rams
65. Laurent Robinson, Rams vs. Chiefs
66. Jason Avant, Eagles at Giants
67. Jordan Shipley, Bengals vs. Browns
68. Brandon LaFell, Panthers vs. Cardinals
69. Steve Breaston, Cardinals at Panthers
70. Brandon Tate, Patriots vs. Packers
71. Sammie Stroughter, Buccaneers vs. Lions
72. Brandon Stokley, Seahawks vs. Falcons
73. David Gettis, Panthers vs. Cardinals
74. Devery Henderson, Saints at Ravens
75. Brian Robiskie, Browns at Bengals
76. Jerricho Cotchery, Jets at Steelers
77. Ruvell Martin, Seahawks vs. Falcons
78. Bernard Berrian, Vikings vs. Bears
79. Derek Hagan, Giants vs. Eagles
80. Early Doucet, Cardinals at Panthers
81. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Ravens vs. Saints
82. Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders vs. Broncos
83. Emmanuel Sanders, Steelers vs. Jets
84. Jordy Nelson, Packers at Patriots
85. Danario Alexander, Rams vs. Chiefs
86. Golden Tate, Seahawks vs. Falcons
87. Austin Collie, Colts vs. Jaguars — INJ
88. Steve Smith, Giants vs. Eagles — INJ
89. Mike Williams, Seahawks vs. Falcons — INJ
90. Ben Obomanu, Seahawks vs. Falcons — INJ
91. Mario Manningham, Giants vs. Eagles — INJ
92. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos at Raiders — INJ
93. Legedu Naanee, Chargers vs. 49ers — INJ

Not listed: Deon Butler, Seahawks; Patrick Crayton, Chargers; Lee Evans, Bills; Brian Hartline, Dolphins

 

The above player rankings are based on expectations for this week only, not for the entire season, taking into account this week's specific matchups and injuries. The initial rankings are compiled before the release of the NFL's early injury report and are updated Thursday to reflect the status of each player.

We base our rankings on the following scoring system: For skill-position players, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards, one point for every 30 passing yards, six points for a TD run or catch, four points for a TD pass, two points for a two-point conversion run or catch, two points for a two-point conversion pass. For kickers, three points for FGs of 18-39 yards, four points for FGs of 40-49 yards, and five points for FGs of 50-plus yards. Defensive rankings are based primarily on points allowed, yardage allowed and sack potential.

Glossary of notations

INJ — player has an injury that may affect productivity or availability.
ILL — player has an illness that may affect productivity or availability.
UP — player was moved up on draft board after original posting.
DOWN — player was moved down on draft board after original posting.
Not listed — player is temporarily sidelined due to injury or suspension but otherwise would be ranked.
ACTIVE — on game day, player has been designated active (posted shortly before kickoff, when available).
INACTIVE — on game day, player has been designated inactive (posted shortly before kickoff, when available).

Players and/or notations added after the original posting are shown in boldface.

Note: Remember to check back for late-week and weekend updates, as well as game inactives (when available) in the 90 minutes preceding the 1 p.m. Sunday kickoffs. You'll also find regular updates in Michael Blunda's fantasy report on Sunday mornings.

Only a few weeks ago, I noted that Pierre Garcon was having an abysmal season.  Since then, he's thrown the breaks on the train wreck and turned it around.

Here are his numbers through the first ten games of the season compared with numbers the last 3:

	Catches	Targets	Catch Rate	Yards	YPC	TD
Weeks 1-10	32	69	46%	406	12.7	1
Weeks 11-13	19	22	86%	221	11.6	3

Here are his advanced metrics now compared with when I wrote the article

	DYAR	DVOA	Yards	EYAR	Catch Rate
Weeks 1-9	-75	-28.7	344	271	47%
2010 Full	+42	-7.0	627	657	57%

Wow.  That's a stunning turnaround in just four games.  Garcon went from having one of the worst seasons in Colts history to having a not good, but not awful year.  That's basically the effect of three outstanding games.  These stats measure the quality of the catches Garcon gets.  Namely, he's started being effective on third down.  Giving Manning a target he can trust on third down is massive.

Finally, let's look at Garcon's 2010 season compared to his 2009 numbers.

	Catches	Targets	Catch Rate	DVOA	Yards	YPC	TDs
2009	47	92	52%	-0.4%	765	16.3	4
2010	52	92	57%	-7.0%	627	12.1	4

Garcon has been obviously less efficient than last year, but given his early season injuries and current resurgence, a strong final three games of the season could well speak to a nice step forward for him in 2010.  

If the season was over now, we'd have to declare it a disappointing one for Garcon.  From a bird's eye view, he's basically a little worse than last year.  Taken game by game, however, he's clearly charging hard.  If he has three strong games to finish the year, he still has a chance to see the overall narrative of his season take a major step forward.  He's not likely to wind up with a 1,000 yard season, but 800 yards is still within range.  More importantly, he still has plenty of time to pull his catch rate up over 60%.

If nothing else, he's almost definitely off the hook for having the worst season of any Colt since 1999.  I think that title goes to Qadry Ismail in 2002.