Southerly winds ahead of an approaching cold front to our west will pump warm air into our region on Tuesday. Expect a mix of clouds and sunshine with the chance of evening showers and thunderstorms and highs in the lower 80s. The Storm Prediction Center has placed DC and points west under a slight risk for severe storms with damaging winds and hail being the primary threats.

Wednesday morning will start off wet with lingering showers, but expect these to end by the afternoon. Clouds should begin to break up by late afternoon. It will be a cooler day with highs in the lower 60s.

Sunshine returns for the day on Thursday with a breeze out of the north and west. Highs will bump up into the upper 60s so it will be a pleasant day. A weak and fast moving system may bring more clouds on Friday with the chance for a few light showers and high temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees.

Another storm front will move through the Lower Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley at the start of the week. While this front will not be intense enough to produce the amount of severe weather that occurred last week, the Storm Prediction Center forecasts a slight chance of severe weather from eastern Texas through southern Arkansas. Severe thunderstorms along with tornadoes are possible in this area.

Storm chaser Reed Timmer, whom I profiled late last year, captured dramatic footage of tornadoes in eastern Missouri and western Illinois yesterday. It’s obvious the tornadoes caused structural damage, given the debris picked up and strewn about. The Storm Prediction Center logged 34 tornado reports yesterday, though that figure could include multiple reports of the [...]

North Carolina is still reeling from an outbreak of tornadoes that struck this past weekend.  23 people perished in the Tar Heel State bringing the total deaths to 45 across six states from a system that swept through the deep south late last week.

The severe weather hit a bit closer to home yesterday with over 500 reports of severe weather according to the Storm Prediction Center.   Many of those reports came from downstate Illinois with numerous tornadoes spotted but no serious injuries.

The severe weather season seems to be turbo-charged this year.  This has created a big interest in tornado shelters.   The USA Today featured an article about shelters that can hold up to six people and cost up to $6000 without installation costs included.  

 

Click on the picture above to see Granger Plastic's promotional video.

For those of us with a smaller budget, consider a weather radio.  Every home should have one.  It could be your first line of defense during severe weather season.  They cost around $35 and can be setup to warn you of storms that affect the counties you choose. They have a battery backup to keep you covered even if the power should go out.

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Sunshine will mix with leftover clouds that are associated with a line of strong storms that developed and blossomed off to our west late yesterday and last night. Breezy southerly winds ahead of this approaching front will help to push out daytime temperatures into the low to mid 80s this afternoon which is well above our average high of 68 degrees for this time of year.

Later this afternoon and evening we are expecting a few showers and storms to develop along and ahead of the aforementioned advancing cold front. Instability will be limited however the Storm Prediction Center does have everywhere east of the Blue Ridge under a slight risk of severe storms. My feeling is that the activity will be widely separated due to limited dynamics; however, I can’t rule out a couple isolated but perhaps severe cells.

Heading into the overnight skies will gradually clear overhead with temperatures cooling to around 50 degrees. Thursday will be a quiet, cooler, but mostly sunny day in between systems.

Our next weather-maker arrives Friday with increasing chances of showers and rain especially later in the day. Easter weekend looks unsettled but warm with a thundershower possible both Saturday and Sunday.

By Meteorologist Tom Skilling

Absent a check of Tuesday's forecast, the day's damp, bone-chilling weather---the coldest to occur so late in a season here over the past 71 years----offered few clues that a wave of fast-moving, lightning-laced and downpour-generating thunderstorms was likely to occur. It just didn't seem like that kind of day. Temperatures struggled to 38-degrees at O'Hare---a reading equivalent to the normal high February 24 and 25 and 22-degrees below normal. The high temperature fell just 4-degrees short of the lowest April 19 maximum on the books: 34-degrees recorded in 1901.

Chicago weather records reveal a reading that chilly this late in the season has occurred on only 18 other occasions---all in the earliest years of official observations here when readings were taken close to the lake in downtown Chicago and on the University of Chicago campus.

The storms which hit Tuesday evening, arrived as part of a line of powerful thunderstorms which erupted quickly late Tuesday afternoon in eastern Missouri and Iowa then raced eastward at speeds up to 70 mph. Their powerful winds left swaths of damage across sections of 7 states.

Heaviest Chicago area rain tallies top 2 inches; longer range projections keep thundery rains coming regularly over the next 2 weeks
 
The sections of the Chicago area hit hardest by the storms reported impressive rainfalls. Among them was 2.42 inches in far southwest suburban Henry, Hebron in northwest Indiana (2.42-inches), Lowell IN (2.06 inches), Flossmoor (1.93 inches), Kankakee (1.76 inches) and Wilmette (1.66 inches). Totals of that magnitude are  the equivalent of receiving more than half a typical April's precipitation in just a few hours time.

The spring pattern, which bears a striking resemblance to a number of past La Nina springs in its wetness and storminess, shows little sign of drying out anytime soon. A new system threatens the area's next round of showers and thunderstorms Thursday night and Friday---and still another system could provoke a shower over at least part of the area later Easter Sunday and a more substantial round of thundery downpours as warm air makes a move on the area Sunday night and Monday.

Much can change over the coming 7 days---but early indications appear to point to the potential for the strongest warming---even if only temporary---Monday and Tuesday next week.
   
T-storms, some tornadic, unleash monster hail and damaging straight-line wind gusts topping 90 mph downstate
 
The meteorological lashing which occurred in summerlike warmth downstate late Tuesday was harsh. All told, the Storm Prediction Center tallied 548 reports of severe weather including 28 twister sightings Tuesday. It's a tally which exceeded the number logged over the weekend---though the past weekend's tornado counts were actually higher. The most extensive damage appeared from preliminary reports to have occurred in the region between Springfield and St. Louis.

Tornadoes weren't the only product of the violent, fast-moving squalls. Straight-line gusts hit 95 mph at downstate Buncombe as well as at Olive Branch, Illinois---communities in an area close to Paducah, Kentucky and Cape Girardeau, Missouri. Other downstate gusts included 77 mph 3 miles northwest of Walnut Hill, Illinois and 76 mph at Evansville, Indiana.

Hail the size of softballs (4.5 inches in diameter) pounded Clarksville, Mo., an area near Stringtown, Okla. was hit with 4.25-inch diameter hail.
 
Another late-season snowstorm buries central Wisconsin generating local 9-inch-plus totals
 It was late season snow---and lots of it---which headlined Tuesday's weather well north of Chicago.  The daily snow record for April 19 of 1.5 inches set in 1898 fell in Green Bay, Wisconsin as 8.7 inches of snow accumulated---the most to ever occur so late in the season there. Other impressive snow totals included 9.5 inches at Ashwaubenon, 8.6 inches Bellevue, 8.3 inches La Crosse, 8 inches Appleton and 7 inches at Sparta---all in Wisconsin. Parts of that area had been hit with a snowstorm only two weeks earlier.
 
 
Growing indications first warm surge in two weeks possible early next week
There were growing indications that warmer, more springlike weather may finally make a move toward Chicago early next week. While another wet late-week system promises a new round of showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday night, a northbound warm-front is projected to swing across the area Sunday night and Monday. It's a development which signals the threat of additional thunderstorms. But it also hints that 70s could return to the Chicago area as early as Monday and that 80 might not be out of the question next Tuesday.

Chicago area

Widespread showers and thunderstorms blanketed the Chicago area between 7 and 8PM this evening. There were multiple reports of pea to dime-sized hail over the western suburbs, including Elmhurst, Niles, Carol Stream, St. Charles, DeKalb, Schaumburg, Arlington Heights, Naperville and Palatine. In St. Charles nearly an inch (0.99 inch) of rain poured down in just 15 minutes. The showers and thunderstorms were all moving east and were expected to weaken somewhat by 10PM.

 

Downstate Illinois and Indiana 

Tornado Watch central and southern Illinois and Indiana

The National Storm Prediction Center has issued a Tornado Watch for most of central and southern Indiana until 2AM CDT. The Tornado watch for central and southern Illinois continues until 9PM CDT. A very dangerous-looking squall line developed in east-central Illinois and was headed into west-central Indiana at 8PM CDT, triggering several Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Warnings from Vermillion County south to Edgar County in Illinois and from Warren County south to Vermillion and Parke Counties in west-central Indiana.

The devastation is stunning -- homes and lives shattered as the deadliest swarm of twisters in three years battered up to 15 states. Ultimately, this could turn out to be among the top 10 three-day outbreaks for number of tornadoes, though experts can't be sure until all the reports are sorted, said Greg Carbin of the federal Storm Prediction Center ...

By Meteorologist Paul Dailey

8:41 a.m. update

This morning low pressure was centered in southeastern Kansas with a warm front extending east out of the low center through Missouri and then along the Ohio River through the extreme southern portions of  Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect over approximently the southern half of Illinois until 11AM this morning. A significant temperature differential exists along the warm front with readings close to 50 degrees just to the north of the front and in the 70s to the south. The temperature gradient across Illinois this morning spans almost 50 degrees - running from the upper 30s in the Chicago area through the 40s in central Illinois to the middle 70s south of the warm front. A band of showers and thunderstorms has developed north of the warm front over Iowa into central Illinois and is moving northeast. This band should spread over the Chicago area between 10AM and 11AM.

 

Severe storm risk in Illinis/Indiana

The low center is forecast to move east northeast passing south of Chicago this evening. So Chicago will stay in the cooler air today with afternoon highs in the 40s and strong east to northeast winds with occasional gusts over 25 mph. The National Storm Prediction Center has outlooked southern and central Illinois and Indiana in a moderate potential area for severe storms and possible tornadoes today and tonight. Chicago and northern Indiana are in the slight risk area with the main threat being large hail and damaging winds in stronger thunderstorms.

 

Snow in Wisconsin 

To the north, central and northern Wisconsin and northern Lower Michigan are bracing for heavy snow later this afternoon and overnight. Anywhere from 4 to 10 inches of heavy wet snow is possible generally north of a line from northeast Iowa through Madison and Milwaukee.

Announcing the 2011 FERMILAB/WGN Tornado & Severe Storms Seminar on Saturday, April 30, 2011

By Meteorologist Tom Skilling

Greetings to each of you! We have an extraordinary program planned for our 31st Annual Fermilab/WGN-TV seminar which takes place this year on Saturday, April 30th. I'm very excited about this year's program and the speakers who will join me at noon Saturday, Arpil 30th and again for a repeat of the entire program at 6 p.m. The event will take place at the Ramsey Auditorium on the grounds of the Batavia-based Fermilab National Accelerator Laboratory.  Please feel free to attend either the noon session or the 6 pm session. We'd love to have you join us!  Hope to see you there and again here are the key details.

Where: Fermilab - Kirk Rd & Pine St, Batavia, Illinois, 1.630.840.3000
When:  Saturday, April 30th @12pm and again at 6pm

For a complete listing of guest speakers and topics of discussion continue reading below!

Putting these programs together the past 31 years has been a real labor of love for each of us involved in the seminar's preparation and production. The program is absolutely free! There are no tickets required--just show up! Seating is first come, first-served, so we recommend you get to the Fermilab grounds early--about an hour or hour and a half before the start of each program. As in recent years, we'll be giving away a number of NOAA Weather Radios.  Be sure you sign up at the Lake County Skywarn Booth as you approach the Ramsey Auditorium.

There's so much to talk about and share with you this year--and our speakers list is spectacular! We have an incredibly active 2011 tornado season underway and showing no sign of easing anytime soon which we intend to update and discuss. But, we've also been through quite a winter which has included one of this area's worst blizzards on record. The extraordinary Blizzard of 2011 was one for the books--the third worst snowstorm since records began in the 1884-85 snow season. Despite one of the best advance forecasts of such a storm ever, thousands ended up stranded on Lakeshore Drive--among other thoroughfares across the area. Why was that? And how was it that the storm was so accurately predicted so far in advance? We'll have insights from the National Weather Service's Dr. Louis Uccellini, Director of NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction in Camp Spring, Maryland as well as Dr. Jim Angel, our Illinois state climatologist at the Midwestern Regional Climate Center in Champaign, who will join us to discuss the work he and his colleagues have done on the impact; economically and in human terms, of February's crippling storm.

Jim Reed is one of the most respected storm chasers and extreme weather photographers on the road today. An author and all around wonderful human being, it was Jim who guided our WGN team as it encountered a multiple vortex tornado which chased us at speeds over 60 mph last May in northeast Oklahoma.  You'll meet Jim and find his presentation riveting.

We have a whole series of other presentations planned at our April 30th programs--and here's a rundown of them--both the speakers and the subjects of their talks. Both the noon and the 6pm programs run 3-4 hours with a break mid-way through.

I'm often asked if our program is suited to younger children.  Probably not. There will be all manner of "storm- in -progress" slides and videos which may frighten some young people. We've found in most past programs at Fermilab that 4th graders and older are best equipped to handle the content of our presentations.

Here are our speakers and the topics that will be discussed. Check them out!

Tom Skilling, Chief meteorologist, WGN-TV  Join us for a front row seat as we take you on a video excursion through a wild year of weather. The presentation will include our all-too-close encounter with a multiple-vortex tornado which chased us down an Oklahoma highway at 55mph. We'll also take a look at February's horrific blizzard--arguably the area's single most crippling snowstorm in decades. The blizzard, despite a week's worth of advance warning, still stranded thousands in howling 70 mph winds under drifts up to 5 to 6 ft. on Lakeshore Drive for up to 14 hours. We'll also review early returns from the already formidable 2011 tornado and severe weather season underway which is seriously outpacing the 2010 twister season to date.

Tom plans to take you on a video excursion through it all--and will even include eye-opening and horrifying video clips of the devastating Japanese tsunami in progress, as it takes apart one seaside community in the space of just 9 minutes.  The presentation will include a look at the revolution underway the past half century in meteorology which has allowed better forecasts and tracking of tornadoes and all manner of weather.

Dr. Louis W. Uccellini, Director of NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)  Dr. Uccellini will present a talk: "Forecasting The Blizzards of 2010-2011".  Warnings for Chicago's third largest snowstorm on record in February 2011 and New York City's record blizzard in December 2010 were issued with plenty of lead time; yet not all heeded the warnings.  This talk will explore how forecasters approached these storms and offer insights into how the warnings were received as the dangerous storms approached major metropolitan areas.

Extreme weather, including blizzards, tornadoes and severe thunderstorm outbreaks, are being predicted with greater accuracy and longer lead times than ever before. This past winter's blizzard in Chicago, the third largest snowstorm on record, was flagged as a potential threat for the Great Lakes region 5 to 7 days before the storm struck. Yet uncertainty in the track forecast remained even as the storm was predicted to become a large and dangerous blizzard that would impact a large area of the northern Midwest. The ability of this country's forecast system to provide forecasts of extreme events (like the blizzards and the recent major tornado outbreaks) has been decades in the making and is based on revolutionary advances in observing, numerical prediction models, computers, and the abilities of the forecasters to work with and fully utilize these sophisticated models and observations to issue warnings with increased confidence and specificity.

Global and local observations are becoming increasingly reliant on satellites and radar networks.  And today's forecast models run on supercomputers which are able to readily access over 3.5 billion observations per day and perform 70 trillion mathematical calculations per second---a speed which will double or triple over the next 4 to 5 years.  There may be no one who who has played such an active role in this revolution in weather forecasting than Dr. Louis W. Uccellini who, as Director of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (or NCEP as it is known in the meteorological profession), oversees the operations of 9 centers including the Storm Prediction Center, Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, National Hurricane Center and the Environmental Modeling Center (which plays a key role in the development of the computer models) and of the NCEP Central Operations (which maintains and runs these models on the operational supercomputers on a daily basis).  Dr. Uccellini will discuss the Chicago and New York City blizzards with a comparison showing that while the forecast and warnings highlighted the potential threat associated with the onset of these storms highlighted days before their arrival, improvements are still needed to provide predictive information and decision support required for more decisive action.  Finally, Dr. Uccellini will take your questions at the end of the presentation..

Dr. Jim Angel, State Climatologist, Midwestern Regional Climate Center February 2011 Blizzard's astounding impact: Tab on storm $400-million in snow removal costs and in lost business, nearly 7,000 miles of highways buried beneath a foot or more of snow, over 10-million impacted

The February blizzard's economic impact has come in at just under half a billion dollars in northeast Illinois alone, according to the Midwestern Regional Climate Center's Dr. Jim Angel. Angel is Illinois' state climatologist in Illinois. Just under 10 million Illinoisans alone experienced 12-inch plus accumulations and an extraordinary 6,993 miles of Illinois highways were buried beneath 12 inches.

Jim Reed, Award winning photographer "Storm Chaser: A Photographer's Journey" - Join award-winning extreme weather photographer Jim Reed as he discusses his favorite images from his critically-acclaimed book and how he captured the photos

It was veteran storm chaser Jim Reed with whom Tom Skilling and WGN producer Pam Grimes and photographers Steve Scheuer and Jordan Guzzardo traveled into the Plains last spring for a trip which led to an encounter with a multiple vortex tornado which chased them down a northeast Oklahoma highwa. The storm flipped semis and cars on their sides. WGN viewers were along every step of the way for the ride. One of the world's most accomplished and award-winning extreme-weather photographers, Jim Reed has dedicated 20 consecutive years to documenting America's changing climate for editorial and fine art clients that include National Geographic, The New York Times, and Corcoran Gallery of Art.  In 2010, Jim served as WGN's field guide on the Emmy-Award winning "Chased by Tornadoes," leading Tom to his first on-location tornado. Author of the critically-accalimed book, "Storm Chaser: A Photographer's Journey," Jim has appeared on Good Morning America, The Today Show, The Weather Channel, and many other TV shows. Check out Jim's Nikon Podcast on iTunes! You can follow Jim on Twitter: @jimreedphoto


Jim Allsopp, Warning Coordination Meteorologist, NWS Chicago  Tornadoes in the Chicago area: How often have they occurred and how do events like the current La Nina, which the cooling of the equatorial Pacific, have an impact on local tornado occurrence?

Several years ago Jim Allsopp did a study on the frequency of significant (F2 and greater) tornadoes across the eight county Chicago metro area. In 2010 Valparaiso meteorology student Tony Lyza expanded the study to the entire 23 county area served by the Chicago NWS office and also looked at correlations between tornado frequency and the El Nino/Southern Oscillation cycle.

Brian Smith, Warning Coordination Meteorologist, National Weather Service, Omaha, Nebraska "Killer Wind:  Do not ignore Severe Thunderstorm
Warnings"

Brian Smith, veteran National Weather Service meteorologist and severe weather specialist at the Service's Omaha forecast office, and former student and longtime research assistant to famed University of Chicago tornado researcher Dr. Ted Fujita, will look at derechoes and downbursts, explain what they are, how they happen and the dangers they represent.  Brian has irrefutable evidence they are just as dangerous as tornadoes and makes the case that Severe Thunderstorm Warnings should be taken just as seriously as tornado warnings and not ignored.

Dr. Mary Ann Cooper, MD, University of Illinois-Chicago The lightning injury rate in the U.S. is down but lightning injuries and deaths remain high in tropical and sub-tropical countries. What is being done to change this?

Due to the hard work of many people, the lightning injury rate in the US has declined substantially.  However, there continues to be significant numbers of injuries and deaths in tropical and subtropical countries around the world.  We cannot export the US solutions to areas where thatched roof homes and labor intensive agriculture is still the norm but must come up with other solutions including innovative educational ways to reach the people.  Dr Cooper will discuss some of the developments and outreach that is happening in these areas.

Ed Fenelon, Meteorologist in Charge of the NWS Forecast Office-Chicago Rip Currents: Killers on the Great Lakes--but what are they and what do you do when they strike?

Rip Currents caused the drowning death of 30 people last year on the Great Lakes, and on average claim 100 lives per year in the United States.  Sadly, most if not all of these lives could have been saved had people known the right thing to do.  Just what are these powerful water flows that occur at our beaches, and what do we need to be teaching our kids before they go in the water?  Ed Fenelon will talk about what ripncurrents are, and about a new partnership between beach managers, first responders, community leaders, the media, and the National Weather Service to reduce rip current drownings at our beaches.  Through advances in rip current research we are now able to predict days when rip currents may form.  By being informed before deciding to go to the beach, and following the advice of lifeguards and beach signs when there, we can ensure many happy returns to the water.  Rip Currents -
break the grip of the rip!  More information at ripcurrents.noaa.gov

The Storm Prediction Center has a portion of at least six states outlooked with a moderate risk of severe weather tomorrow.

The April showers that fell this morning were April snow showers.   Parts of Lake and McHenry county saw 1 to nearly 3 inches of slushy wet snow accumulate on grassy surfaces.  We even set a record for today with .6" at O'Hare breaking the old record of .4" for this date back in 1910. We were on the cool north side of this system.  Tomorrow we will also be on the cool side of yet another system.   In the "warm sector" south of here, there is a moderate risk for severe weather Tuesday.  Most of the Chicago area will be in a slight risk area.  Hail is the main concern here Tuesday but tornadoes are a possibility in downstate Illinois in the warmer air.

This all comes right on the heels of a historic three day severe weather outbreak that produced over 240 tornadoes.  Nearly 60 tornadoes alone touched down in North Carolina this weekend killing 22 and producing extensive property damage.  It was the state's worst outbreak in more than 25 years.  

 

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Steve LaNoreThe Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of north Texas in a “slight risk” zone for severe weather Tuesday.Tuesday will be a very hot day with highs in the 90s, and it will be windy too...April 18, 2011

Tornadoes by Talladega, NASCAR cancels events. MD lacrosse postponed? Video Examiner.com This will be the largest outbreak of severe weather of the year. April 4th had 38 tornado reports and 89 hail reports, part of the most widespread severe weather day in the US in over a decade. As of 8pm on Friday the 15th the Storm Prediction Center ... and more »

All told, the Storm Prediction Center has logged more than 100 individual tornado reports (some of these will be duplicates for the same tornado), 16- wind damage reports and 58 reports of hail on Saturday. I’m starting this to include information about storm damage in Virginia and North Carolina. I’ll continue to update it as [...]

Severe weather WILL come through the region today, there is no doubt about it. This will occur over the next couple of hours. We have plenty of tools at our disposal to help you stay on top of the storms. If a tornado warning is issued, that means a tornado has been indicated on radar or someone has spotted one. If this occurs and it is for your area, be sure to get to a study structure and go to an interior room away from windows.

Be sure to check our Live Super Doppler 7 radar and our new Interative Radar.

For information on Watches and Warnings, you can see the list on our site here:

http://www.tbd.com/weather/maps/warnings/

You can also go to the National Weather Service webpage for the DC Area:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/lwx/

Another helpful site to see what the warnings are very quickly is below:

http://www.thundercall.com/weather.cfm

For the latest storm reports across the region, check the local NWS page and the Storm Prediction Center page. Email any storm reports to lwx-report@noaa.gov and be sure if you get any pictures of the storms or storm damage email it to iwitness@wjla.com.  You can also call the weather service to leave a storm report at 703-996-2200.

We will break into storm mode and go live on ABC 7 tonight if there is a tornado warning in the region. We will stay live until the tornado warning has expired or has been cancelled. This is a serious and very dangerous weather situation, so please stay alert and stay tuned to NewsChannel 8 at 5pm and ABC 7 at 6pm. You can also listen to our live reports on WTOP Radio 103.5FM.

UPDATE 2:30PM: The Storm Prediction Center has issued an updated discussion (called a Mesoscale Discussion) about the severe weather threat that exists across Virginia and the Carolinas. The discussion highlights the continued tornado threat this afternoon – as clouds clear out ahead of the main line of storms the possibility still exists for supercells to [...]

The past two days have seen some of the most powerful severe weather events of the year, with numerous tornadoes reported and large hail and damaging winds. (Here's a video of one twister near Jackson, Miss.) Just today alone, the Storm Prediction Center has received over 25 reports of tornadoes with the number expected to increase during the remainder of the day.

This severe threat will continue to move east through the evening and overnight hours and reach the eastern seaboard tomorrow. The highest likelihood for severe weather will exist in central and eastern North Carolina and for eastern portions of South Carolina, where a moderate risk (higher chance) for severe storms has been placed. In those areas, there could be long-tracked and strong tornadoes.

For the D.C. area, the threat still exists for severe weather, but would be more focused on a threat for damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Looking at some of our forecasted soundings in the area, there is plenty of wind shear with winds both veering with height as well as increasing with speed with height. With winds around 1,500 feet above the surface moving around 60 knots or more, heavy rain could easily help bring those damaging winds to the surface. The directional shear will also add the possibility of rotating updrafts in thunderstorms, which in our environment would more than likely lead to the possibility of weak tornadoes within quasi-linear convective systems like we saw the past couple of weeks.

Heavy rain is also a likelihood, with 1 to 2 inches possible through the day tomorrow. A flash flood watch is in effect for the day tomorrow mainly west of the Blue Ridge where the heaviest rainfall is expected. Unfortunately for you fisherman out there, a gale warning is also in effect for the tidal Potomac and Chesapeake Bay where winds could gust over 40 knots. I say this is unfortunate as tomorrow is the start of rockfish season. Just wait until Sunday!

The timing of the storm should be in the afternoon, with the best chance between 2 p.m. and 6 p.m., though it could continue later through the day. Be sure to check our watches and warnings often, watch our live streaming Doppler Radar and follow our new Interactive Radar to stay up to date. In addition, if a tornado warning goes into effect, we will more than likely break in live on TV to cover it, and you can also listen to our reports on WTOP radio.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center shows ingredients coming together for a possible tornado outbreak in the South. Weather Channel's Jim Cantore reports. (Nightly News)

Severe weather season is underway.   If there is any doubt that Illinois is a part of tornado alley, consider the fact that we rank highly on several top ten tornado lists.  Two of the top ten killer tornadoes occurred at least in part in Illinois.   The most notorious was the  tri-state tornado of 1925 that killed nearly 700.  Illinois ranks 8th when it comes to tornado deaths per 10,000 sq miles.   Illinois ranks 8th in total number of tornadoes.   Illinois ranks 6th in the number of killer tornados. 

Illinois state climatologist Jim Angel has an interesting item on his blog that illustrates our vulnerability in a more visual way. 

 He posted the picture at left that was made from data gathered at NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.   GIS Specialist Zoe Zaloudek created this map of Illinois that includes all tornadoes and their tracks that struck our state between the years 1950 and 2010.   The tracks are color-coded with different colors representing F0 to F5 tornadoes.

Jim points out-

"another feature is the local "hot spot" in Kankakee and Will Counties, relative to surrounding counties. We see a similar pattern with heavy rainfall events so it is probably genuine, and not an artifact of the data collection."

Click on the map to get a larger, higher resolution version.

Jim Angle is just one of many weather experts that will take part in the upcoming Fermilab Tornado and Severe Storms Seminar.  Click here for more details.

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The center of a large Low pressure system is moving out of Kansas into northern Missouri this morning and appears to be "on track" to move into west-central Illinois this evening and then curve north passing over Chicago early Saturday morning. Rain is spreading over Illinois, and at its current movement should cover most of northeast Illinois and the Chicago area by mid-afternoon. A lakeshore flooding Statement has been issued for the Lake Michigan Illinois shoreline and a Wind Advisory is in effect for northern Illinois and much of Wisconsin. Easterly winds occasionally gusting over 45 mph are forecast to build 10 to 14-foot waves crashing along the Chicago lakefront.

Winter storm Warnings and severe storm outlook

This morning heavy snow was falling from North Dakota south through South Dakota and Nebraska into north-central Kansas. A blizzard warning is in effect today for southwest Nebraska where 5 to 10 inches of wind-blown snow is forecast. Varying amounts of snow from 4 to 10 inches are forecast for portions of South Dakota and North Dakota. Meanwhile strong southerly flow in advance of the low pressure center is pulling warm moisture-laden air up the Mississippi valley into southern Illinois. The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has outlooked the Gulf Coast States from Louisiana to northern Florida all the way north to the Ohio River reaching into southern and central Illinois and Indiana for possible severe storms today and tonight.

By Meteorologist Tom Skilling

The hyper-active 2011 severe weather season roared on Friday unleashing a second consecutive day of rampaging, at times tornadic thunderstorms which claimed nine lives--three of them children. Severe weather has erupted in waves since Thursday producing damage across sections of 14 states. The governors of Oklahoma and Arkansas announced Friday plans to declare sections of their states disaster areas.
     More than 110 sightings of tornadoes have poured in to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) the past two days, 91 Friday alone! The total number of all severe weather reports, including hail and high straight-line winds, topped 650 by late Friday. Note: SPC is charged with collecting and archiving severe weather reports across the country.

 
Tornados skip across central Illinois Friday; new severe outbreak predicted Saturday on the East Coast

    The mammoth spring storm responsible for the more than nine-dozen reports of twisters to Chicago's south Friday, including touchdowns as close as 180 miles from the Loop in the vicinity of Springfield in downstate Illinois, is to spawn additional severe weather on the East Coast Saturday. The storms are expected to erupt from Georgia north to near Washington, D.C. 
   Touchdowns Friday across downstate Illinois occurred near Farmersville, Atterberry, Poplar City and northeast of Athens--all in central Illinois. Much of the damage there was fairly modest--but not in all instances. One of twisters damaged a home and downed trees causing an injury at Poplar City. The Athen's storm produced damage to three homes and sheds downing numerous trees as well.
     Twisters by-passed Chicago Friday, but rain--some of it thundery--didn't. And the area was blasted by powerful non-thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 50 mph in a few areas. While gusts topped out at 38 mph at O'Hare and 37 mph at Midway, the Harrison-Dever Crib reported 47 mph gusts. The winds were so strong, a NOAA sensor at Calumet Harbor registered a lake-level increase of 19 inches above the lowest point of the past week. Similar lake-level rises occurred to the north along the Wisconsin shoreline.
     Weather Bug wind sensors elsewhere in the Chicago area clocked gusts of 56 mph at northwest suburban Harvard just before noon Friday. Other powerful gusts included 48 mph at Gary, 47 mph McHenry, 46 mph at Geneva in the Fox Valley and 45 mph at Lowell and Portage in northwest Indiana.

    
Huge near 70-degree temperature spread sets the stage for the latest spring storm; Blizzard on system's west side buries sections of the Plains under 16" of snow

   Large temperature variations often produce storms in the atmosphere--and that's just what's happened in the latest spring storm to sweep the nation's Heartland.
   Temperatures on the south side of the storm hit 97-degrees west of Brownville in Texas Friday but struggled to reach 29 near Jamestown, North Dakota on the system's north side. That 68-degree spread helped generate powerful upper level jet stream winds which helped lift air on such a massive scale that barometric pressure readings plunged and inflowing winds soared. A new storm was born.
   While thunderstorms and tornadoes have flared in the system's warm sector in recent days, a full-blown blizzard, which produced 12-16" snows, downed power lines and crippled travel in sections of Nebraska and South Dakota.


Stormy pattern hardly over; two equally vigorous storms loom in the coming week

     Rain continues at times Saturday--though storm clouds are to break Saturday night allowing for a fair amount of sunshine and modest warming Sunday. But the break in precipitation will be temporary. Two new storm systems appear likely to traverse the area over the coming week--the first to arrive with showers Monday before unleashing more active rains and thunderstorms later Monday night and Tuesday. Still another storm is predicted to ride off the Pacific next week threatening one more outbreak of big rains and thunderstorms across the Midwest next Friday and Saturday.

The SPC has issued a public statement outlining the severe weather potential for this afternoon and evening for the southern Great Plains: “Severe thunderstorms will first develop by 3 p.m. across central Kansas and move into eastern Kansas by early this evening. “Additional severe storms will develop across central Oklahoma, along and eat of the [...]

The Storm Prediction Center has adjusted its hazardous weather outlook for today, increasing the potential for strong tornadoes in southeast Kansas and the Wichita metropolitan area to 15%. To put that figure in perspective, anything above 2% is considered significant. The dashed lines, or “hatched” area, depicts the area in which tornadoes of EF2 strength [...]

The Storm Prediction Center has adjusted its hazardous weather outlook for today, increasing the potential for strong tornadoes in southeast Kansas and the Wichita metropolitan area to 15%.

The dashed lines, or “hatched” area, depicts the area in which tornadoes of EF2 strength or greater are possible.

Large hail and damaging winds are also possible with storms that develop in the area. Stay tuned to weather conditions and be prepared to seek shelter if necessary.

Read more

The Storm Prediction Center has placed southeast Kansas – including Wichita – and a large swath of Oklahoma under a moderate risk for severe weather on Thursday. Computer models indicate developing weather conditions will “likely result in supercells capable of large hail/damaging winds and isolated tornadoes…over Kansas,” a statement issued by the SPC reads. The [...]

Illinois and Indiana were spared from the worst of the severe weather that erupted this past weekend.  There were 7 reports of tornadoes in Wisconsin on Sunday according to the Storm Prediction Center.  There were 25 reports of tornadoes in Iowa on Saturday.  Remarkably, there were no fatalities.  None of the tornadoes reached EF-5 status with winds over 200 mph.  EF-5 tornadoes are rare but when they do occur, they can be prolific killers.   The Plainfield tornado in 1990 is an example.  29 people perished the day that tornado spun up in August nearly 21 years ago.

The Weather Underground has assembled a details list of F-5 tornadoes going all the way back to 1900.  Click here to see a climatology of the storms that produce the strongest winds on earth.

You may have noticed the reference to both F-5 and EF-5 tornadoes.   The scale for rating tornadoes changed in 2007.  To see a comparison of the two scales and the reason for the upgraded EF scale, click here.

www.facebook.com/TimMcGillWeatherGuy

http://twitter.com/WGNWeatherGuy

 

[pagebreak:Top Ten Green Giants for 2011]

While startups have played a crucial role in getting the green industry off the ground, the future will likely be dominated by the green giants, i.e., large, sprawling conglomerates with decades of experience under their belts.

Why? Green technology essentially involves revamping the physical infrastructure of the modern world: replacing coal-fired power plants with wind turbines, building homes from materials concocted in chemistry laboratories, and swapping out engines for electric motors. Established companies are simply in a far better position to muster the capital, technological depth, and factory capacity that will all be needed to make the transition.

Familiarity plays a big role, too. Millions have flocked to play Farmville, but you won't see the same sort of giddy enthusiasm for unheralded newcomers among utilities and industrialists to try high voltage power lines or sewage-to-drinking-water plants. If the internet boom was embodied by a twenty-something billionaire, cleantech is a science teacher with a comb-over.

We came out with a Top Ten Green Giants for 2010. Here is this year’s list to watch, followed by an update on 2010's group:

1. France
2. ABB
3. Samsung
4. Waste Management
5. NRG Energy
6. DuPont
7. Netflix
8. Ford Motor Company
9. Lockheed Martin
10. Tata Group
11. Update on 2010

[pagebreak:France]

1. France (ca. 20,000 B.C. Formerly named Gaul.)

Not many people realize this, but green technology is a contemporary of Victor Hugo.

In 1839, Edmond Becquerel discovered the photovoltaic effect while experimenting with an electrolyte cell. A year later, August Mouchet proposed the idea of solar-powered steam engines. Then, in 1859, 150 years ago, Gaston Plante invented the lead acid battery. He demonstrated it at the French Academy of Sciences a year later.

A wide array of companies has helped to bring France back to the forefront. Schneider Electric, the electrical services and equipment giant that served Napoleon III, has bought five companies since December. Saint-Gobain, supplier of mirrors to Versailles, invested $80M in energy efficient window-maker Sage Electrochromics.

Areva, the nuclear expert, is working in various nations on reactors. It also purchased Ausra and has retooled that company’s solar thermal technology to lower the cost. With interest in high-speed rail growing, one can anticipate that French engineering firms will be able to export expertise. Renault Nissan became the first large automaker to strongly advocate all-electric cars.

Veolia, also from France, has begun to invest in and partner with water startups.

Why is this occurring? Europeans don’t specialize in startups. Instead, Europe tends to cultivate staid conglomerates with large research labs and employees that stay at the same company for decades. In other words, the kind of places where green ideas can get the room and time they need to develop.  

Not everything comes from China.

[pagebreak:ABB]

2. ABB (1883)

Four years ago, ABB didn’t come up much in conversations in Silicon Valley. Now, the Swiss-Swedish equipment manufacturer and grid builder represents one of the best exit paths for startups in efficiency and grid equipment.

Over the past year, ABB has bought electric motor maker Baldor Electric for $4.2 billion, virtual power plant developer Ventyx for $1 billion, and Insert Key Solutions, which specializes in asset management software. And Ventyx, an independent ABB subsidiary, recently bought Obvient. The VC group has also plunked money into companies like car charger Ecotality. (Note: Andy Tang at ABB's VC arm is not the same Andy Tang who is associated with PG&E, but they do get confused for one another frequently, says Tang of PG&E.)

Despite the company's European heritage, it's also becoming one of the larger green employers in the U.S. All of those acquisitions listed above are companies based in the U.S. ABB this month broke ground on a high voltage cable factory in North Carolina. The $90 million factory will employ more than 100.

With the acquisition race on in smart grid, expect to see the name continue to pop up.

[pagebreak:Samsung]

3. Samsung (1938)

Back in 2009, Samsung announced that it wanted to be one of the world’s largest solar manufacturers by 2015. Some were skeptical. Green energy had been hot for a few years and the move looked opportunistic. Why would a company that can sell high-end TVs build factories to make solar panels, complex products that get sold for commodity prices?

It turns out Samsung is serious. The South Korean conglomerate plans to invest $20.6 billion and employ 45,000 to become a major player in solar, power plants, green electronics, LED lights and other markets. Samsung, sources have told us, actually bought more LED equipment in 2010 than most of the rest of the industry combined. Samsung Electronics alone has 111 subsidiaries and produces everything from components to household appliances.

Recently, it also lured Steve Fludder, who headed up ecomagination for General Electric, to run its energy efforts.

While many conglomerates often become saddled by bureaucratic inertia, internal politics and conservative product planning, Samsung has shown itself to be nimble and aggressive. It topped Sony in consumer electronics and moved from being a second-tier manufacturer to a premier brand.

The company is also adept at marketing -- it has already hired a phalanx of blogging moms to tout its appliances in South Korea.

Be afraid.

[pagebreak:Waste Management]

4. Waste Management (1894)

The General Electric of garbage. Recycling and refurbishing have lagged some of the larger green markets like solar and energy efficiency, but the tide may begin to turn. We’re up to our necks in garbage (each American generates an average of 4.5 pounds of waste a day), oil prices are rising, and new regulations like California’s carpet recycling tax are all conspiring to make reusing consumables and raw materials economical and interesting.

In this environment, WM is the undisputed leader. The company has begun to position itself as a resource management firm, rather than a trash hauler. Wal-Mart, for instance, contracted with WM to help it reduce the solid waste from its stores by 95 percent. Five years ago, that would have been viewed as a threat to the company's core business: WM, after all, manages 290 landfills.

Nonetheless, the company helped Wal-Mart come up with a recycling strategy. The solid waste stream from California Wal-Mart stores dropped from 1,200 containers to 60. Revenue from Wal-Mart's California operations, however, rose 28 percent and profitability went up 25 percent.

WM also worked with a famous doll maker to make its product more recyclable.

"If you told me when I went to Waste Management that I would give plastic surgery to Barbie, I wouldn't have believed you," CEO David Steiner told us last year.

It is also experimenting with technologies like landfill-to-methane systems. A few weeks ago, WM announced that it will work with Genomatica to develop microbes for recycling raw materials. It also invested in Harvest Power, which turns waste into mulch and power. Expect it to be on the forefront of regulatory change: Steiner is an attorney.

[pagebreak:NRG Energy]

5. NRG Energy (1989)

Need cash? NRG is there.

The power provider was founded in 1989, so it’s relatively young compared to others on this list, but its tentacles have spread far and wide. Overall, Princeton-based NRG has over 50 facilities and controls 26 megawatts of capacity. Yes, it has coal and nuclear facilities, but the portfolio sports district heating, solar and other types of projects. It’s also a big player in natural gas, which, like it or not, seems destined to become part of the U.S. clean energy portfolio.

Last October, NRG Solar plunked $300 million into BrightSource Energy, the solar thermal developer and money vacuum. Months later, NRG announced it would buy the 250-megawatt California Solar Ranch project, a PV farm inaugurated by SunPower, and the 290-megawatt Agua Caliente project from First Solar.  

It is also a partner in Energy Technology Ventures, a venture firm that has invested in, among others, Alta Devices, which wants to make solar cells from gallium arsenide. Potentially, NRG could become a pipeline for novel solar cells or concentrators.

[pagebreak:Dupont]

6. DuPont (1802)

Material science is one of the fundamental disciplines of green technology. You wouldn’t see advances in desalination membranes, LEDs, solar wafers, wind turbines or electrodes without dedicated labs of chemists cooking tinkering with molecule sets.

Last year, we saluted Dow Chemical on this list for its activities in water, lithium-ion batteries and solar. DuPont participates in the same markets, but last year also purchased industrial enzyme maker Danisco for $6.3 billion. Danisco not only already makes a green rubber for tires, it produces a large number of additives for food.

Keep your eyes on 3M, which showed off an interesting thin-film solar concentrator at Solar Power International, and Monsanto, which invested in algae maker Sapphire Energy.

[pagebreak: Netflix]

7. Netflix (1997)

The obligatory weird selection for a top-ten list. I was going to name Autodesk for its software that allows others to design products with less embedded energy and packaging, but the miracle of being able to watch Dr. Dolittle 2 instantly got the better of me.

Netflix doesn’t make energy equipment. The company, though, has popularized a concept -- downloading movies -- that was discussed by futurists for years. In turn, the required bandwidth will put more pressure on computer makers and data centers to improve the energy efficiency of computing. Expect to see demand for flash memory, compression algorithms, new types of cooling systems, data center management tools and other technologies to get pulled in its wake.

The pipeline buildup will additionally help pave the way for arguably the world's most cost-effective green technology: videoconferencing. SAP says its $300,000 videoconferencing system paid for itself in a year. Microsoft has cut per capita travel costs by 30 percent. Getting rid of jewel cases for DVDs helps too: a Stanford study last year estimated that downloads cut 40 percent to 80 percent of the energy out of the music industry supply chain.

For the profligate number of computing cycles that you’ve inspired the public to consume for mammoth video files, we -- and the consultants from IBM and HP that will get hired to solve some of these problems -- salute you.

[pagebreak: Ford Motor Company]

8. Ford Motor Company (1903)

Like other large car manufacturers, Ford plans to wheel out an array of plug-in hybrids, all-electrics and plain hybrids. It even put an oversized charger in the coming all-electric Focus to cut down on charging time and help eliminate range anxiety. And like GM and others, it is tinkering with software and psychology to come up with apps to make electric cars more engaging. 25 percent of Ford's cars will be hybrids, electrics, or plug in hybrids by 2025 with the vast majority of the total being regular hybrids.

But the biggest push at the company will revolve around improving gas and diesel engines and that's why company made the list. EcoBoost, Ford's efficient gas engine that acts sort of like a diesel, can boost mileage by 10 percent to 15 percent and EcoBoost engines have been popping up in more models. More technology will follow. CAFE standards will require auto makers to boost their average fleet mileage from the low 20 mile per gallon range to 35 miles per gallon by 2016 and may further require them to hit 42 miles per gallon or more by 2020. Considering that electric cars will only constitute a small percentage of overall sales by 2020, achieving the higher standard will likely have to be accomplished hrough things like microhybrid technology, novel opposed piston engines and devices that can recover waste heat from engines to power air conditioners.

Advanced engine companies like Achates Power hope big automakers will license their technologies. Ford might license, but it is also in better shape than many competitors development-wise. CEO Smilin' Alan Mulally reorganized the company after coming to Ford in 2006 and placed a particular emphasis on ensuring that the best-of-breed ideas at the company percolated globally. The old days of producing good cars in Europe and questionable ones for the U.S. effectively began to end.

 Additionally, Ford has also been at the forefront on incorporating recycled materials into its cars. Just a few days ago, it announced it would convert 4.1 million pounds of carpet into cylinder heads.

[pagebreak: Lockheed Martin]

9.Lockheed Martin (1912)

Back in 2009, we predicted the rise of the Utility-Industrial Complex, or an increasing number of partnerships and deals between utilities and companies like Boeing, Raytheon, Bechtel and Lockheed often associated with DoD contracts.

These companies continue to participate in green markets, but the trend hasn’t become as big, or moved as fast, as we expected. Some have speculated that the pecuniary budgets of utilities and the ‘build first, budget later’ attitude of some military contractors were not a perfect fit.

Still, the intermingling goes on and Lockheed generally has one of the more diverse portfolios in the industry. It is working on microgrids at Fort Bliss, Texas and trying to figure out ways to better tie home networking into demand response systems with Tendril.

It also examines technologies from startups like Power Tagging, and, in the “might be crazy, but it might work” department, it is working on ocean thermal technology for producing power.  (Look, we even almost got through an entire article without mentioning it also has looked at EEStor.)

[pagebreak: Tata Group]

10. Tata Group (1868)

Like Samsung, but more sprawling. The Indian conglomerate is known to many in the West for producing the Nano, the $2,500 car. But it also produces steel, chemicals, energy, beverages, composites, electronics, owns hotels and has consultants around the world. Jaguar and Daewoo are two sub-brands.

Thus, it is both a big consumer and a producer of energy. The current goal is to replace 25 percent of its own fossil fuel consumption with renewables by 2017. Like others on the list, it has startup investments: It owns a piece of Sun Catalytix, the MIT spinout that wants to convert water to hydrogen with sunlight and proprietary catalysts.

On top of that, the conglomerate -- and the Tata family behind it -- remains one of the most important and influential in India when it comes to pursuing social goals through technology. (The family built the Indian Institute of Science.) As green grows in India and Southeast Asia, so will this group.

[pagebreak:Class of 2010]

How did the class of 2010 fare?

The companies on this year’s list didn’t knock off the 2010 nominees. Instead, they are additive. But here’s an update on what happened with the inaugural group of green giants.

1. People’s Republic of China. No comment needed. One interesting development is China’s willingness to embrace Western technology. Innovalight signed a number of deals for its solar ink with Chinese solar makers. Both Johnson Controls and Honeywell also announced plans to help develop building efficiency there.

2. General Electric. The sprawling conglomerate last June said it will spend $10 billion on research and development for products for the ecomagination group over the next five years, doubling the $5 billion spent in the inaugural five years of the program. This next five-year plan will pay particular attention to exploiting hardware and software.

3. Siemens. The acquisition juggernaut slowed a bit, but Siemens still found time to scoop up SiteControls for building management. It also signed a deal with Enphase Energy.

4. Nissan. The Leaf made it out. Not many have been produced, but it’s out and the hoopla seems to have convinced others like Mitsubishi that electrics can be affordable and attractive.

5. Dow Chemical. See above.

6. Panasonic. In October, Panasonic president Fumio Ohtsubo told a group of us reporters in Tokyo that the company would become the top supplier of green electronics by 2018, the company's 100th anniversary.  Earlier this year it finalized the acquisition of Sanyo to expand its reach in solar and batteries. We've been talking up Panasonic since 2008, so hats off to us for this early prediction.

7. Johnson Controls and Honeywell. Along with the Chinese deals, JC and H both snapped up companies in building management.

8. Wal-Mart. Last year it announced its green supply chain initiative. Hopefully, results will come over the next few years. On a personal note, I actually shopped at one for the first time recently when I needed snow boots in a pinch.

9. Veolia. Go team France.

10. Cisco. We’re waiting. Maybe it’s the lull before the storm.

The Storm Prediction Center  in Norman, Oklahoma is still monitoring the storm system currently passing through the Chicago area. Conditions are still ripe for further severe weather especially in areas just east and south of Chicago.

The Storm Prediction Center is considering issuing a new tornado watch that would cover areas ahead of the cold front from southwest Missouri into northwest Illinois.  These are the storms that would eventually move into the Chicasgo area later this evening.

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has just issued a tornado watch #120 valid until 11pm CDT for portions of Wisconsin, Upper Michigan, southeast Minnesota and extreme northeast Iowa. Illinois is not included in this watch. Because of the volatility of the atmosphere today, the watch is headlined a particularly dangerous situation.

The expected severe weather development appears to be starting to develop. Latest radar and satellite trends show thunderstorms beginning to develop in portions of north central Iowa just east of a cold front. These storms are expected to rapidly become severe as they are fueled by an unseasonably warm and humid environment currently in place across the Midwest.

By Meteorologist Paul Dailey

With a warm front to the north in Wisconsin, a strong southerly flow of very warm humid air will be streaming into northern Illinois, southeast Wisconsin and northwest Indiana Sunday. Temperatures in the Chicago area will soar into the 80s, possibly threatening the city's all-time record high of 90-degrees for this date set back in 1930.

A strengthening low pressure center will move northeast through Minnesota into northern Wisconsin Sunday, while it's associated cold front crosses the Mississippi river and approaches Chicago from the west Sunday evening. The forces that breed severe weather outbreaks seem to be coming together with this storm system, and the National Storm Prediction Center has issued a moderate risk of significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes for eastern Iowa, the northern half of Illinois including the Chicago metro area and most of Wisconsin Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. The greatest risk in the Chicago area appears to be late Sunday afternoon into the evening hours.

Late this afternoon an intensifying low pressure center was moving out of Colorado into western Nebraska. Out of the center of low pressure, a warm front extended east through Nebraska and northern Iowa across northern Illinois around the south end of Lake Michigan and along the Indiana-Lower Michigan border. The warm front should continue moving north into Wisconsin this evening, perhaps a little slower close to the lakefront where the cool lake waters have a tendency to hold the front back a little longer before the southerly flow eventually overcomes the cool layer over the lake.

 

This afternoon temperatures in southern and central Illinois warmed into the lower to middle 80s and the southerly flow behind the warm front will be bringing that same air over northeast Illinois later this evening. Temperatures over much of the Chicago area by 9PM will most likely be in the 60s north and 70s south, except along and inland of the lakefront where readings will still be in the 40s. Later this evening and overnight thunderstorms will likely develop well to the north of the warm front in Wisconsin and could pop up along the slow-moving portion of the front in the Chicago area.

 

Heat and severe storms Sunday

By Sunday morning mild air, strong southerly flow and temperatures in the 60s will cover the Chicago metro area, southeast Wisconsin and northwest Indiana. Temperatures will probably climb into the middle to upper 80s, threatening the 90-degree record for April 11^th in Chicago set back in 1930. As the low center moves northeast and the associated cold front approaches from the west Sunday afternoon, The Storm prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has issued a moderate risk area of significant severe storms and tornadoes that includes eastern Iowa, the northern half of Illinois, including Chicago, and most of Wisconsin Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. At this time the greatest risk in the Chicago area appears to be late Sunday afternoon into the evening hours.

By Meteorologist Tom Skilling

A year ago, the Chicago area was in the final day in the first of a series warm spells destined to produce the fourth warmest spring in 140 years of weather records. Nearly a week of extraordinarily warm temperatures, including back to back 80s April 1 and 2, was preparing to temporarily wind down on this date with April 2010 averaging 62.2-degrees.

This April's been quite different. The month is running nearly 16-degrees cooler than last, averaging 46.5-degrees. It's a thermal gulf which is likely to remain wide as Wednesday's clouds and showers limit the day's high to 61-degrees. (It was 76-degrees a year ago).

A blustery spring storm due to reach the metro area later Thursday into Friday is to strengthen northeast winds off chilly Lake Michigan's low 40-degree waters assuring the majority of the next two days will feature 40s in all but inland locations where low 50s may occur. The system's thundery rains, expected to hit hardest Thursday night and give way to sprinkles and drizzle Friday, will all but extinguish hopes for any significant warming the remainder of the work week.  
 
 
Sox Home Opener Thursday to feature 40s, winds off the lake; heaviest rains could hold off until after the game-but stay tuned
 
The incoming disturbance boosts prospects that fans planning to attend the city's second major league baseball home opener---this one for the Sox at U.S. Cellular Field Thursday afternoon--- are well advised to prepare to bundle up for what looks like afternoon of mid to upper 40-degree temperatures and northeast winds averaging 14 mph. While clouds will be lowering and thickening during the game---and there's a chance the system's first light showers could flirt with the area mid or late afternoon---current forecast reasoning holds the heaviest rains and thunder off until after the game. But it's a close call that any adjustment in the system's predicted forward movement could necessitate forecast updates changing rain arrival times. We'll keep you posted.

Northbound warm front promising dramatic weekend temperature gyrations from 40s early Saturday to a summerlike 80-degrees Sunday; t-storm clusters threaten during the transition
 
April, a month not known for its meteorological subtlety, appears to be preparing a smorgasborg of weather this weekend likely to include the Chicago area's first 80-degree temperature since October and possibly several threats of active thunderstorms---the first with the warmth's arrival Saturday into Saturday night---but a second potentially more potent wave later Sunday and/or Sunday night.  
  
Severe weather threat late Sunday and/or Sunday night tied to diverging jet stream winds, sharp vertical temp drop
 
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is already cautioning that a broad area of the nation's mid-section, encompassing sections of 11 states including most of Illinois and Indiana as well as southern Wisconsin and Eastern Iowa, could be in line for severe weather Sunday.

Early computer model projections are painting a potentially ominous meteorological picture---covering the region with energy-rich humid air and 65 to 70-degree dew points, faster than normal vertical temperature declines and placing the region beneath diverging branches of a powerful jet stream winds. Add converging low-level winds along a warm and cold front which will be sweeping the area and the eruption of rotating, super-cellular thunderstorms capable of hail, wind and possibly tornadoes isn't at all far fetched.


Sunday's windy warmth to include highs 25-degree above normal; year's first 65-degree dew points to add Gulf Coast-feel to the day
 
But storms aren't likely to dominate the entire weekend. In fact, many hours will feature delightful summer-like conditions once chilly winds off the lake a portion of Saturday depart.  It's likely there will be significant rain-free periods in which sunshine occurs, This plus howling, non-thunderstorm southerly winds Saturday night and Sunday, is likely to produce highs nearly 25-degrees above normal at that time.

If you live in Middle Tennessee you probably know where your home’s ‘safe place’ is, as it is often referenced during emergency-storm coverage on TV. Monday afternoon, however, a potent line of storms moved in quickly in the middle of the work day. As many businesses did, Nashville Business Journal employees rode out the storm for about 20 minutes in the ground-floor parking area beneath our building. Was your workplace following a plan, or was it playing things by ear, once prompted by tornado sirens? Should you have done anything differently? This tornado preparedness guide, prepared by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Storm Prediction Center in Oklahoma may offer some useful...

 

The Storm Prediction Center has Issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 3AM CDT for the following northeast Illinois Counties:

Boone             Cook                  Dekalb

DuPage          Grundy               Kane

Kankakee       Kendall              Lake

La Salle          Lee                    McHenry

Ogle               Will                   Winnebago

 

The following Counties In southeast Wisconsin:

Jefferson         Kenosha            Milwaukee

Ozaukee          Racine               Walworth

Washington    Waukesha

 

And in extreme northwest Indiana:

Lake and Porter Counties           

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a tornado watch  #82 effective until midnight CDT for portions of north central, northwest and west central Illinois,extreme southern Wisconsin, southeast Iowa and extreme northeast Missouri. the watch covers the Rockford area  and the I-39 corridor but does not include the Chicago metro area.

The first thunderstorms are now forming in southeast iowa and with strong dynamics, and very warm and humid air flooding into the region rapid thunderstorm development is anticipated.

 

Drastically different weather is occurring across the area this afternoon with temperatures hoving close to 40 degrees in southeast Wisconsin in the Milwaukee area, while far southern sections are basking in 81 degree warmth at Kankakee.

Midway Airport has reached 72 degrees at 4pm, marking the city's first 70 degree day of the year while O'Hare is encroaching on that number with a reading of 68.

Strong south to southwest winds continue to bring the warm air north with gusts between 30 and 40 mph in many areas.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to move into the Chicago area later this evening and overnight with much of the activity centered between  the 10pm and 2 am window. The entire area remains under a slight risk of severe thunderstorms in the latest outlook issued by the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma.

Strong south winds are blasting the Chicago area this afternoon boosting temperatures to some of the highest levels recorded here this year. At 2pm readings had reached the middle and upper 60s across central and south portions of the region and had climbed into the lower 70s in southern sections. However, further north readings drop off sharply to the middle 40s near Waukegan and into the upper 30s in southeast Wisconsin near Milwaukee.

At 2pm reading across the  area ranged from 41 degrees at Kenosha to 73 degrees at Kankakee.

Southerly winds have been very strong and gusty this afternoon. Some of the higher gusts reported include 35 mph at Glen Ellyn, 43 mph at Peotone and 50 mph at Portage in northwwest Indiana.

The strong winds and huge temperature spread are key ingredients that are to come in play later this evening and tonight for the development of thunderstorms, some of which could be severe. The entire Chicago area is included in a slight risk of severe thunderstorms issued by the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma with a moderate risk to the southwest over portions of northeast Kansas and northern Missouri.

     

 

Residents of the Wichita area would do well to make use of their garages tonight: strong storms, with large hail and damaging winds, are possible after sunset.

The storms are part of a larger system that could produce tornadoes in the Kansas City area and other sectors in eastern Kansas and northern Missouri, according to NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center. Here’s the convective outlook for today:

The more likely threat for Wichita is large hail – at least an inch in diameter – and potentially damaging winds, said Scott Smith, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Wichita.

Read more

The Chicago area's first severe weather outbreak of the season could arrive here late Sunday and Sunday night as a burst of warm and humid air sweeps into the Chicago area Sunday ahead of a strong low pressure system forecast to traverse the area.

The Storm Prediction Center in Normal, Oklahoma has placed the entire Chicago Metro area in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms for Sunday. As the warm and humid air moves into the city late in the day temperatures could climb to around 70 degrees for the first time this year.

Severe thunderstorm outlook from 7am CDT Sunday April 3 -7am Monday April 4, 2011 

By Meteorologist Tom Skilling
 
March closes at midnight Thursday having left many of the area's warm weather-hungry residents in the lurch. It's not that the month has been monstrously cold---it will finish less than a degree below normal and many Marches here have been far colder. It wasn't even especially snowy---only an inch has fallen over the entire month, a fraction of the 6 inches considered "normal".  But the intensity of its final cool spell the past 8 days--a cold snap which has included temperatures not seen in late March for 28 years---dominates many Chicagoans' impression of the month.

The month has failed to do what more than half of Marches (53 percent of them) have done---produced an official 70-degree high within the city limits. Its paltry two days of 60-degree temperatures have been just half the long term average of four days and only a quarter of the eight 60s recorded in the month a year ago.

Temperatures creep closer to seasonable levels away from Lake Michigan Thursday than at any time in the past 10 days and may head even higher Saturday
 
An eighth consecutive day of east winds off Lake Michigan will restrain warming in shoreline areas Thursday. But for other sections of the Chicago area, temperatures are headed for the 50s---levels close to the 52-degree normal high. It's the first time in 10 days inland readings have been that high.

Wednesday's 45-degree high at O'Hare and 46 at Midway marked those sites' mildest temperatures in 9 days---yet still fell short of normal.

The day's observed inland highs included the 52-degree peak readings at Joliet, Kankakee and Pontiac. Rockford and Elgin managed 50-degree highs.

Early season warm spell was getting underway a year ago; March 31 high hit 77-degrees
 
2010's first true warm spell arrived on this date a year ago. The March 31 high surged to 77-degrees--28 degrees warmer than Thursday's predicted 49-degree high at O'Hare. Back to back 80s followed April 1 and 2 in a spring season which was to become the 4th warmest in 140 years of weather records here. So perfect was March through May weather that area farmers completed planting in record time.
 
Lake warming, lengthening days, stronger sunlight, and a shrinking U.S. snowpack all signs of  warmer times ahead
 
As frustrating as the persistent chill has been to many in search of spring-like warmth, the foundation for warmer weather is being laid by developments on a series of fronts. Days have lengthened since Dec. 21, this area's shortest day, by 3 hours and 31 minutes. Sunlight intensity has surged 342 percent over the same period as the sun's trek across the sky takes place more directly overhead. At the same time, snow coverage over the Lower 48 has been shrinking. While snow once covered 70.9 percent of the country, the U.S. snowpack has shrunk in recent days to just 30.6 percent of the U.S. according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. That's less than half its expanse at its height on Jan. 12.

Though a slow process, Lake Michigan is also warming. Each of these developments will help lead to higher temperatures in the weeks and months ahead.


Late season nor'easter threatening interior New England with big snows, heavy coastal rains
 
A low pressure predicted to cross from the Gulf of Mexico to Atlantic waters off the Georgia and the Carolina coasts is to undergo explosive intensification Friday as it presses north, paralleling the East Coast. The storm is to develop into a full blown nor'easter which is likely to soak coastal cities from New York to Boston while burying interior New England under as much as a foot of snow.
 
Storms hit sections of Florida hard Wednesday; much of sunshine state outlooked for possible severe weather again Thursday
 
Residents of the Florida peninsula brace for powerful new waves of thunderstorms again Thursday. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center indicates much of the state is at elevated risk for severe weather Thursday into Thursday night.


Thundery, wind-driven downpours raked Florida for the second time in as many days Wednesday drenching Ebro with 2.58 inches of rain, Appalachicola with 2.40 inches, Eglin Air Force Base with 1.92 inches and Pensacola with 1.78  inches.  Powerful thunderstorm wind gusts downed power lines and produced damage at a number of locations. Wind speeds hit 75 mph at Titusville and Lakeland, 66 mph at Orlando, 62 mph at Leesburg, 60 mph at Winter Park and 59 mph at Daytona Beach.
 
Wet spring storm could bring Chicago's its biggest rains in nearly a month Sunday night and Monday
 
The Chicago area, which has managed to dodge a number of significant precipitation-producing systems in recent weeks, may not be so lucky late this coming weekend and early next week. A new storm riding off the Pacific and expected to track southeastward into the Plains, where it will tap a huge supply of northbound Gulf moisture, may begin generating rains here as early as late Sunday or Sunday night. Wind and rain appear a good bet Monday when easterly winds will bring an end to 50+-degree highs predicted Saturday and away from the lake Sunday.

By Meteorologist
Tom Skilling

2011 tornado and severe weather reports across the Lower 48 running at 2 to 3.5 times last year's pace

The young 2011 severe weather season is continuing to produce severe weather reports filed with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) at 2 to 3.5 times last season's pace. While only 714 reports were on file at SPC this time last year, 2,523 had been logged by late Tuesday.

Snow went out like a punk on Sunday.

In what ABC7 senior meteorologist Bob Ryan has deemed the final snow "storm" of spring, D.C. received a passing brushstroke of white: just 0.2 inches. Alexandria got 0.4 inches and towns south of Richmond saw more than two inches. Somehow a snowfall record was set at Dulles International Airport. But still, it was a lackluster haunting from our once-fearsome, thundersnow-bombing winter.

Dry air was mostly responsible for kneecapping the storm in the D.C. region. (Bob Ryan has a more thorough explanation.) It got back on its feet again down south, where severe thunderstorm warnings were in effect Sunday for Coffee, Appling and Bacon counties in Georgia – a sign of how deep the storm scooped and also that Georgia has food on the brain. Hail the size of softballs smashed car windows and ripped open house sidings. Check out this video of it bouncing like Super Balls.

Our weather this week will be less dramatic but not without its twists and turns. There are two chances for rain – one on Tuesday night into Wednesday that could feature some wintry mix, the other on Friday. Then there’s the lingering cold streak. Sunday marked the fourth day in a row with temperatures 15 to 20 degrees below 60, the seasonal average. Today’s warmest moment is likely to be more than 10 degrees below 60 and the nippy temperatures are expected to last into Friday.

“Here we are at the end of March, and it feels more like the end of winter,” says ABC7 meteorologist Steve Rudin. “There’s just this area of high pressure locked over the region bringing in a lot of cold air from Canada.”

Rudin says that some weather models show the briskness lasting for a couple of weeks. The graphic you see above, from the Climate Prediction Center, gives the Northeast a heightened probability of below-average temperatures all during next week. Let’s hope they're wrong.

Strong thunderstorms in Georgia First Coast News Our increased humidity and wind will combine forces with a slow-moving front to our north to kick off widely scattered showers and thunderstorms by late afternoon mainly in southeast Georgia. The Storm Prediction Center continues to show a severe ... and more »

By Meteorologist Tom Skilling

Snow has whitened the ground across many sections of the Chicago area overnight, a vivid reminder---as if the biting northeast winds and February-level temperatures weren't enough---that winter's not behind us yet. This comes at a time of year in which temperatures should be shedding winter's chill with increasing frequency, reinforcing the promise of spring. Instead, events in the arctic have plunged the area into an abnormally chilly spell of weather which is likely to last at least into mid next week.

The so-called Greenland blocking pattern, a critical factor in helping produce much of the past winter's chill---indeed the driver of a colder than normal pattern in a series of recent winters---is back in place well to the north of Chicago. Despite its distance from the city, its impact on the city and the Midwest and Eastern U.S. is immense.   

Simply put, this pattern involves the development of a huge pool of milder than normal air aloft at arctic latitudes. The warmth there forces jet stream realignments which send unseasonably chilly air southward into an expansive region of the Lower 48. Its impact on Europe and western Russia can be the same. In short, the reappearance of the Greenland blocking pattern provides what long-range forecasters refer to as a "cold signal" for good chunk of the U.S. and on both sides of the Atlantic.

Global scale computer forecast models began signaling this development over a week ago. If there's any good news about this, it's that the same models are hinting the blocking pattern is likely to breakdown in the 1 to 2 week time frame permitting a fairly substantial temperature recovery.

Northeast winds off chilly Lake Michigan to blow the next 7 days

For now and the over the coming 7 days, temperatures are to average as much as 10 to 15-degrees below normal. This plus projections winds are to blow into Chicago off of Lake Michigan's still chilly waters suggest the spring wardrobe won't be anything many of us are likely to turn to over that period of time.

Snow dusts Chicago but Wisconsin's Northwoods buried beneath record snow

The dusting of snow here and the flurries predicted to begin winding down Thursday morning pale in comparison to the record breaking snows which have hit the region from the Dakotas across Wisconsin's Northwoods to Michigan and the Mid-Atlantic.

The storm buried Mayville, N.D. under 19.5 inches  of snow, the top snowfall to emerge from the system.  But, sections of north and northeast Wisconsin weren't far behind. Ashwaubenon, Wis.--southwest of Green Bay---was hit with 17.3 inches snow followed by a 16.4 inch tally at  Shiocton and a15.4 inch snowfall across Lake Michigan at Suttons Bay, Mich. Thunder and lightning as well as 30+ mph wind gusts accompanied the storm. Duluth, Minn. reported gusts clocked at 70 mph in the storm's wake Wednesday.

Storm ranks among Green Bay's 6 biggest; seasonal snow tally there nearly 80 inches; first season with three 10-inch-plus snowstorms

The storm pushed Green Bay, Wisconsin's seasonal snow total to 79.2 inches--the city's 7th largest tally on record. The latest storm buried it under 15.3 inches of snow--the 3rd largest March snowstorm on the books there. The 2010-11 season becomes the first in Green Bay's history---records there extend back to the late 1800s---to have produced three 10-inch or greater snows.

Tornadoes slam Pennsylvania and Tennessee hard producing scores injuries, destroying homes; U.S. Wednesday storm reports top 300!

While upper Midwesterners were digging out, damaging and injurious severe thunderstorms were on the march across Tennessee and Pennsylvania. Winds believed associated with twisters destroyed 40 homes in Hempfield, Penn. while what may have been a tornado in White County, Tenn. produced multiple injuries and knocked homes off their foundations while destroying mobile homes.

By Wednesday's close, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center had tallied more than 320 reports of severe weather across the U.S.

Latest storm to sweep off Pacific produces California tornado/funnel clouds and flooding

The East wasn't alone in dealing with twisters. A tornado with a huge new spring storm sweeping off the Pacific was reported to have produced damage in Williams, Calif. Wednesday---a community northeast of San Francisco.  Flooding was reported in the Fresnoand Bakersfield areas and mountain snows reached 12 inches at Tennant, 8 inches Mt. Shasta and 6 inches at Weed--all in California.

Could it be a Chicago or Midwest weekend snow-maker?

The track this storm follows once onshore in the Lower 48 may well have a bearing on Midwest if not Chicago weekend weather. Computer models early on typically project tracks on storms entering the country like this one too far to the south. That may be the case with this system.

A sprawling Canadian high pressure, predicted to be draped across the north tier of U.S. states this weekend and likely to contribute to new round of gusty northeast winds in Chicago, could play a pivotal role in the track of the latest storm.

Some model forecasts in recent days have spread snow with this system north to Chicago, bringing it into the city Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. Other projections have kept the snow to the south. We are leaning toward the possibility some snow could reach the city but will be updating you on developments with this system in the days ahead.

We have big snow here in Boston and through the Northeast US. See #snowloko on Twitter.MIT and Tufts are closed.Check WBZ site for updates .The local office of the National Weather Service offers information for the state, including: •Preliminary Climate Data for Other Locations in Southern New England•Miscellaneous Climate Records and Averages•Southern New England Snow Storms/Previous Event Calendar•Hydrologic Observations•Plots and Images of Hydrologic Observations.The site also offeres great links to sites like:National Centers for Environmental Prediction Model Analyses & GuidanceThe Model Analyses and Guidance (MAG) website showcases the National Weather Service’s observational database and graphical suite of numerical model analysis and guidance. The site is maintained by National Centers for Environmental Prediction Central Operations (NCEP/NCO) and NOAA’s Web Operations Center (WOC). During the past fifteen months, the current NWS/NCEP Model Analysis and Forecast website was redesigned to create a more professional and interactive interface. More links here.